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June Fajrun, but, no "A" storm yet or nothing on the horizon.
All major outlets are predicting a near-record or record-breaking 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, at least in terms of overall ac ulated cyclone energy, total hurricanes, and total major hurricanes. Will be difficult to beat the 30 named storms of 2020, but that year had a ton of weak and short-lived storms that arguably should not have been named.
Official government forecast is for 17-25 named storms, the most bullish forecast in history.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...rricane-season
Current Sea surface temperature anomalies centralized in the Atlantic similar to 2005. Neutral conditions persist as of late May 2024 with a displaced La Nina to the east and El Nino persisting in the West Pacific equatorially. This is known as the Modoki setup which is very similar to what happened from 2004 leading into 2005, the most powerful and devastating hurricane season in modern history, including Katrina, Dennis, Rita, and Wilma. Expect La Nina to gradually strengthen between now and the end of 2024 and for a weak to moderate La Nina to impact the coming winter.
June Fajrun, but, no "A" storm yet or nothing on the horizon.
As per the SST maps, seems like El Nino Modoki seems to persist. La Nina in the East Pacific, but El Nino remains in the 3.4 and 4 regions, closer to the West Pacific and Indonesia.
Reminds me a lot of June 2005. Ominous. We didn't get a storm that year until mid June but then it REALLY ramped up quickly.
I will say this, in early June 2005 the "neutral" across the Pacific was more evenly spread out, and we didn't have that hot pool in the far north Pacific near Alaska like this year.
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