Based on the Spurs' preferences in the past, I think that they like having a combo guard running the point. With that in mind, I wanted to look at one of my favorite combo guard prospects that hasn't gotten as much here: Devin Carter
The guy is currently mocked in the mid-first so he'd be a reach with either our pick or the conveyed Raptors pick, but he has a lot of indicators suggesting that if only a few things break right, he might be one of the most valuable players to come out of the draft.
Overview
First and foremost, he's probably the second best perimeter defender in the draft after Ryan Dunn. I'd say he probably has the best lateral quickness of anyone in the draft. His numbers support that as well - STL% and BLK% of nearly 3 each are elite numbers for a guard. Additionally, unlike other defense-first upperclassman guards who busted (are busting) out of the league (Davion Mitc , Jevon Carter), he's got the size and athleticism (26 dunks on the year) to back up his defensive instincts. He's a legit 6'3" with a 6'9" wingspan, and is also an elite rebounding guard - his 14 TRB% compares to that of much taller guys like Ryan Dunn and even Filipowski. He's a combo guard with a big wingspan who plays even bigger, which allows him to hold up on switches while his lateral agility potentially allows him to become a weapon against small shifty guards.
Offensively this year, he's taken a leap. Ever since Bryce Hopkins went down for the season in early January, Carter's been by far the #1 option for Providence and has put up some monster statlines against good compe ion. 28/11/6/4/1 against #18 Creighton. 24/15/4/2/2 against #2 UConn. 27/8/3/2/1 against #10 Marquette. This is with getting consistently double-teamed as the primary offensive option while still putting up elite defensive numbers. Since Hopkins went down after the new year he's been averaging 22/9/4 on good efficiency.
Shot Diet - Rim pressure and 3s
The biggest question for Carter, like most other defensive guard prospects, is his 3 point shooting. As a bigger defensive guard with high rebounding numbers and elite DAWG/48, my comps for him include Kris Dunn, GP II, and Josh Hart. Dunn and GP II had a lower shooting signal with lower FT%, lower 3pt volume, and lower 3 pt%. It is unsurprising that their outside shooting never came around, although they have found pro success by utilizing their defensive prowess, athleticism, and frame. Hart is a more apt comparison, as a league-average streaky shooter with a similar FT% and a slightly higher 3 pt% on lower volume. However, I would argue that the types of 3s that Carter is shooting (pull-ups, deep 3s) are more difficult as the primary option compared to Hart's shot diet and there is more hope for Carter.
With regards to rim pressure, excluding Nikola Topic, Devin Carter has the best combination of rim attempts and rim finishing (65%) of any of the guard prospects in the draft. By far his biggest weakness is in the midrange, but if you look at his shot diet, it's essentially a modern NBA shot diet with the vast majority of attempts being rim attempts and 3s.
Fit for the Spurs
Interestingly, Carter's combination of frame, defensive versatility, all around goodness, and unfortunate hairline gives him an upside comp very near and dear to most Spurs fans:
https://www.tankathon.com/players/co...-derrick-white
Just like Derrick developed his defense to become one of the best guard defenders in the NBA in spite of an anemic college steal rate, Carter would have to develop his playmaking chops and continue the development of his outside shot to get to where White is today. This is not impossible - Carter's shown the ability to make advanced PNR reads and hit tight windows with his passing. His shooting has improved year over year. He has an NBA dad who undoubtedly showed him how much work it takes to make it in the league and he by all accounts has a great work ethic. However, if those things do develop appropriately, you're looking at what is probably the ideal point guard next to Wemby, a switchable guard who gives you a POA defender on fast guards to pair with Sochan's ability to defend bigger forwards and who doesn't die on screens or get hunted in mismatches, as well as a guy who can take a portion of the playmaking demands while providing spot of shooting and rim pressure in doses.
Draft Projection
I think he's going to be drafted late and outperform his draft projection. As far as upperclassmen go, I'd rather have Carter than Knecht for sure but they're completely different types of players. I basically put Carter, Sheppard, Castle, and McCain in the same category as combo guards with varying levels of defensive versatility and shooting. With regards to fit on the Spurs, I probably still put Sheppard first due to his jumper and defensive playmaking. However, I suspect that even though Carter's going to be the last one of the 4 drafted, he won't be the worst pro of the 4. Doesn't make sense to draft him with the Spurs natural pick, but if a trade-down opportunity is there I'd look very hard into drafting him as a 22 year old ready-made defender who doesn't need nearly as much developmental resources as a teenager but still with significant upside potential.
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