A More Nuanced Look at the DPE Extension

[cd021]

From what I've been able to gather, the Spurs cannot include any incentives in Kawhi's extension. Maybe DPG21920 or another avid tweeter on here can reach out to Mark Deeks or Larry Coon or another cap guy and confirm. But it seems like the best compromise for both sides is to give Kawhi a deal with max incentives so that Kawhi gets a deal worth well more than the any other team could give if he returns to form but doesn't break the bank too much if he doesn't.

Provided that my understanding of incentives is incorrect, this is the contract I'd pitch:

Year	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023		Total	Average
Total	$37,117,500	$34,148,100	$34,148,100	$37,117,500	$40,086,900		$182,618,100	$36,523,620
Base	$31,815,000	$29,269,805	$29,269,805	$31,815,005	$34,360,206		$156,529,821	$31,305,964
Incentives	$5,302,500	$4,878,295	$4,878,295	$5,302,495	$5,726,694		$26,088,279	$5,217,656

Contrast that with a max offer from another team:

Year	2019	2020	2021	2022		Total	Average
Total	$31,815,000	$33,405,750	$34,996,500	$36,587,250		$136,804,500	$34,201,125

$20 Million more guaranteed with the upside of $46 Million more. If he gets a PO in that final year, he'd make more in the first four seasons anyway if he plays at the caliber he used to. If he doesn't, SA gets him for a large but manageable contract. We're talking $60 Million less over the five seasons. Even if he's MVP caliber each year of the deal, SA saves about $33 Million over the life of the deal.

Couldn't the Spurs just offer a 5 year DPE worth 30℅ of the cap, with games played incentives that kick in towards the end of the deal?

If my math is right, that would be north of $190 million, still about $50 million more than $136 million a team like the Lakers or Clippers could offer, not to mention the massive no state income tax advantages.

[Chinook]

Couldn't the Spurs just offer a 5 year DPE worth 30℅ of the cap, with games played incentives that kick in towards the end of the deal?

If my math is right, that would be north of $190 million, still about $50 million more than $136 million a team like the Lakers or Clippers could offer, not to mention the massive no state income tax advantages.

There's no games played incentives as far as I know. I also don't think they are interested in giving Kawhi even a chance at the full DPE. It's an awful contract. The sweet spot is between the two max levels, and the nature of the injury should determine how much is guaranteed.

[TD 21]

Then bye. Also, John Wall got 170M.

I know. Again, principle. That was the most they could offer.

Curry got $200M. Again, checkered injury history. Also, 3 years older. Yet, in excess of $17M less in a best case (for Leonard) scenario, if he accepted Chinook's proposal.

I don't disagree with the ideology. I'm just saying, I'd be surprised if it actually happens.

[Chinook]

The only way he'd accept that, is if he knows for a fact that he won't ever be the same player again. Even if that is more likely than not, I highly doubt he'd be willing to concede that at this point. Athletes are often in denial; it's part of their DNA.

That's nearly $36.4M less than the DPE in a best case scenario. Lesser players, with similarly checkered injury histories (Westbrook and Wall) were given the DPE.

Also, this is also not an appealing situation. The only other certifiable core piece, is a player who turns 33 in the off season and they're not a free agency destination for superstars and most stars.

Principle. It's the fact that the Spurs could offer significantly more and have a long history with him.

Kawhi can only get the DPE from the Spurs. Everything we've seen suggests SA isn't keen to give it to him. If Kawhi doesn't sign an extension this off-season, it comes off the table, DPE or no. On the other hand, SA will still be able to trade Kawhi after than deadline. Waiting hurts him way more than it does the Spurs.

Comparing him to other players is wrong-headed. He had worse seasons than all of those guys and may never again be superior to them. The DPE is a vile contract and will not become a new standard

[TD 21]

Kawhi can only get the DPE from the Spurs. Everything we've seen suggests SA isn't keen to give it to him. If Kawhi doesn't sign an extension this off-season, it comes off the table, DPE or no. On the other hand, SA will still be able to trade Kawhi after than deadline. Waiting hurts him way more than it does the Spurs.

Comparing him to other players is wrong-headed. He had worse seasons than all of those guys and may never again be superior to them. The DPE is a vile contract and will not become a new standard

No, it doesn't. He can requalify for it.

Wrong. If this drags out past the bulk of free agency, the Spurs will lose significant leverage. If the 76ers sign James and/or George, they'd obviously have less of a need to make a significant offer or be flexible with their offer.

I'm playing Devil's Advocate.

[TheGreatYacht]

Yeah. Bending over backwards for old, washed up scrubs like Mills and Gasol put you in a spot where you're going to look bad if you don't make Kawhi happy.

The PATFO slurpers here justified those bad contracts with arguments like "paying Mills and Gasol is going to look good around the league because it shows how loyal the Spurs are to their guys and that they are willing to pay them to stay"....Sure.

Now look at the flipside, chronic injury or not, Kawhi expects his money. If he doesn't get it, he might demand a trade. You're now in a position where Kawhi is gone, the overpaid scrubs are still here (cause "loyalty"), and you look incompetent around the league because of how you handled the entire situation.

One of the best posters around bro

[Mugen]

I'm a firm believer that Kawhi was going to get lowballed even before this BS season happened. A real shame when you consider the BS contracts that were handed out to Porky, Fatty, RJ, Pau, etc.

[Chinook]

No, it doesn't. He can requalify for it.

Wrong. If this drags out past the bulk of free agency, the Spurs will lose significant leverage. If the 76ers sign James and/or George, they'd obviously have less of a need to make a significant offer or be flexible with their offer.

I'm playing Devil's Advocate.

He can't requalify for the extension, because he'll be a free agent. Sure he can qualify for the bigger FA contract, but if that's his goal, why would that bother SA? He'd have to earn it, which means a great season for the Spurs.

Sure if Philly signs PG AND Lebron they won't be able to trade for Kawhi. But every team who missed out on those guys will only be more desperate. The Spurs miss out on undifferentiated picks, but plenty of offers thrown out there weren't based on those anyway

[DPG21920]

He can't requalify for the extension, because he'll be a free agent. Sure he can qualify for the bigger FA contract, but if that's his goal, why would that bother SA? He'd have to earn it, which means a great season for the Spurs.

Sure if Philly signs PG AND Lebron they won't be able to trade for Kawhi. But every team who missed out on those guys will only be more desperate. The Spurs miss out on undifferentiated picks, but plenty of offers thrown out there weren't based on those anyway

He can requalify for the DPE from my understanding. He would have to pick up his option in order to do so, but he can re-qualify if they agree to a make good season before that.

[DPG21920]

I'm a firm believer that Kawhi was going to get lowballed even before this BS season happened. A real shame when you consider the BS contracts that were handed out to Porky, Fatty, RJ, Pau, etc.

Those contracts have nothing to do with Kawhi, they are no where near the level of Kawhi’s deal and all those guys actually played.

[cjw]

There's no games played incentives as far as I know. I also don't think they are interested in giving Kawhi even a chance at the full DPE. It's an awful contract. The sweet spot is between the two max levels, and the nature of the injury should determine how much is guaranteed.

The contract is truly awful and takes you out of contention unless you have all of the pieces and don’t mind paying the tax (Warriors even get players to take a discount ... if Durant takes one, that’s the best thing to point to for Kawhi).

Look at all the teams who have a DPE and throw up when you look at their cap situation. Thunder and Wiz are great case studies.

[offset formation]

The only way he'd accept that, is if he knows for a fact that he won't ever be the same player again. Even if that is more likely than not, I highly doubt he'd be willing to concede that at this point. Athletes are often in denial; it's part of their DNA.

That's nearly $36.4M less than the DPE in a best case scenario. Lesser players, with similarly checkered injury histories (Westbrook and Wall) were given the DPE.

Also, this is also not an appealing situation. The only other certifiable core piece, is a player who turns 33 in the off season and they're not a free agency destination for superstars and most stars.

Principle. It's the fact that the Spurs could offer significantly more and have a long history with him.

Sure. Principle is a two way street. Spurs had a player bail on them for 73 games this year that was cleared by their team doctors, all while taking in $19MM.

Kawhi put himself in this boat. Let him row it.

[YGWHI]

Everything hinges on the honesty of the player and doctors about his medical condition. I'm wondering if the NY doctors have been authorized by Kwahi to give the Spurs a report on their findings. Is it a chronic problem, all fixed now, or something in between.

If the Spurs aren't given the NY doctors' information, that is disturbing. Why would Kwahi and his 'group' want that information kept from the Spurs? There are several possibilities about that---and none of them are good for the Spurs.

Kawhi traveled with Spurs personnel, working with them, and called Pop almost every day...I doubt the Spurs don't know anything about their findings.
If Ramona and Mike Wright wrote an article talking about Kawhi's doctors new diagnosis, I doubt Spurs didn't know about...

In fact, I believe Kawhi and his doctors are doing a lot for the Spurs right now.

If you believe Spurs' doctors, his injury -tendinopathy- can't be fixed with a surgery...If you trust his doctors, his quad issue would need a surgery because his calcification couldn't be reabsorbed by his body in last months.

Just imagine how much it would decrease Kawh's trade value if his doctors say he's scheduled for surgery...There is a reason for the silence.

[exstatic]

Kawhi traveled with Spurs personnel, working with them, and called Pop almost every day...I doubt the Spurs don't know anything about their findings.
If Ramona and Mike Wright wrote an article talking about Kawhi's doctors new diagnosis, I doubt Spurs didn't know about...

In fact, I believe Kawhi and his doctors are doing a lot for the Spurs right now.

If you believe Spurs' doctors, his injury -tendinopathy- can't be fixed with a surgery...If you trust his doctors, his quad issue would need a surgery because his calcification couldn't be reabsorbed by his body in last months.

Just imagine how much it would decrease Kawh's trade value if his doctors say he's scheduled for surgery...There is a reason for the silence.

If his group pulls that , I hope he gets MRSA in the hospital, and his ing leg falls off.

[DPG21920]

Surgery makes no sense. If that was the case why wait until now after he has already missed a season? He could have done that right after they shut him down mid-season.

[exstatic]

Surgery makes no sense. If that was the case why wait until now after he has already missed a season? He could have done that right after they shut him down mid-season.

They think it gives them leverage. The Spurs would just dump him for a pick, and let someone else rehab his raggedy ass. Try to get that contract playing a partial season, asshole.

[YGWHI]

If his group pulls that , I hope he gets MRSA in the hospital, and his ing leg falls off.

I never wished an injury to any player so I wish him the best. While he doesn't play well against the Spurs, I'm fine.

[YGWHI]

Surgery makes no sense. If that was the case why wait until now after he has already missed a season? He could have done that right after they shut him down mid-season.

Because they didn't get that diagnosis before?

Because he's under contract and his team-doctors don't agree about the practice/surgery?

Because calcifications shouldn't be removed too early, otherwise it’s highly likely the bony deposit will again form in the muscle?

Because the player is so scared of this option that expects his quad gets healthy with a more conservative treatment?

Who knows.

[DPG21920]

He’s been with his team for 8 months! If they believed their diagnosis then what’s the hold up?

[offset formation]

Because they didn't get that diagnosis before?

Because he's under contract and his team-doctors don't agree about the practice/surgery?

Because calcifications shouldn't be removed too early, otherwise it’s highly likely the bony deposit will again form in the muscle?

Because the player is so scared of this option that expects his quad gets healthy with a more conservative treatment?

Who knows.

Are you claiming to know he needs surgery, or just speculating? Not meant as a critique of you, tbh.

[YGWHI]

Are you claiming to know he needs surgery, or just speculating? Not meant as a critique of you, tbh.

Just speculating.

[YGWHI]

He’s been with his team for 8 months! If they believed their diagnosis then what’s the hold up?

For the record...with NYC doctors just 3 months.

[exstatic]

For the record...with NYC doctors just 3 months.

Nope. August.

[YGWHI]

Nope. August.

Kawhi consulted many other doctors. He started to work with these NY doctors just a few months ago.

Just in case...

"Leonard briefly returned to the Spurs for nine games from mid-December through mid-January. The Spurs were conservative in their approach. He'd play one game, then sit out the next game regardless of how many days later it was scheduled. After scoring 19 points in 28 minutes in a win over Denver on Jan. 13, he complained of soreness in the area once again. He traveled with the team to Atlanta -- a game he was scheduled to sit out anyway -- and Brooklyn, but instead of playing against the Nets, Popovich announced at shootaround that Leonard was being shut down indefinitely.
"He didn't reinjure it or anything, but he was having pain, but not right after games, but maybe the next day at noon or that kind of thing and so the pain wasn't dissipating," Popovich said at the time. "It wasn't going in the right direction."

What Popovich did not say at the time, however, was that while Leonard was in New York, he saw Dr. Jonathan Glashow, an orthopedic surgeon and co-chair of Sports Medicine at New York City's Mount Sinai Medical Center who has professional affiliations with the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia 76ers.
Frankel and Robertson arranged the consultation, according to multiple sources, and the Spurs were informed of the decision and the doctor's recommendations. From this point forward, Glashow and his team have guided the rehabilitation program, sources said. The Spurs have had staffers in New York to observe and assist in Leonard's work, which has primarily taken place at the NBA Players Association headquarters in midtown Manhattan."

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...-leonard-spurs

[spurs10]

I think the surgery angle is the difference between Kawhi and Tony. TP required surgery immediately. Kawhi was different and they tried to rehab him rightly or wrongly without surgery.

Regarding this thread, it’s very interesting to read and consider the many ways all this can go. Today while on a long road trip I heard Cowherd and his guest speculate about Kawhi’s future mainly based on all the “snarky” stuff Pop, Manu, and TP said to the press. Pop never attacked KL once and TP just spoke like he did in the Finals of 2013 “without a filter.”

Hopefully Kawhi can play and everything gonna be alright! Otherwise....I’ll be watching and waiting for the elephant to be born.