your estimation makes sense, but it doesn't make fun, so I play the devil's advocate a bit.
if they are just preparing for their meeting with the Raptors, why do they scout a game, when their best player isn't playing? (it was reported a day before, that Bargnani won't travel to Boston).
why do they scout a road game, when they will play the Raptors in Toronto?
if they wanted to see them against a team like the Celtics (who are somehow comparable to the Spurs), why don't they scout the game in Toronto next weeks, when they play them at home with Bargnani back in the line up?
so let's play the what if game...
what if the Spurs in fact scouted a player, either from the Raptors or the Celtics? who makes sense?
Spurs once tried hard to get Amir Johnson. he would likely make the most sense (mobile big man defender, shot blocker), but the contract numbers are hard to match, unless the Raptors take Bonner. (there is quite a close relationship of Matt to the Raptors). Johneson is somehow redundant in Toronto with Davis providing the same qualities (on lower cost and more upside). he already slipped in the rotation. Bonner plus JA would work. (Raptors might be pretty interested in JA as well, could take Butlers spot, who played quite bad this season).
Kleiza could be another option. (Spurs would use him as small ball PF) the Spurs package could be the same. Kleiza is back from his injury, looks healthy and played pretty well in some games. (but he didn't play in Boston!)
James Johnson would also fit the small ball PF profile. he might be the odd man out, now that Kleiza is back.
what about JA for James Johnson? Raptors might see more use for Anderson than they have for Johnson. btw. Johnson has a lot of flaws, but he showed some quite impressive shot blocking.
and to not only look at the Raptors: what about Brandon Bass?
Blair+Bonner for Bass would work. if Celtics think Blair will give them the same production, they might be interested, Bonner adds some more depth. the overall costs for the Celtics are the same. Spurs might see bass as a better fit alongside Tim and Tiago, because he is more mobile and has a better range than Blair.
a minor option could be JaJuan Johnson for JA.
I'm sure the Spurs are trying to move Blair (by sure I mean in my opinion). His level of play plus his contract situation (upcoming) decision should have him on the trade block.
Amir would be a very solid addition to the team and would add another talented youngster to the Spurs. However he eats into cap space the next 3 years. The question really becomes would you rather pay Amir the 6m or Blair whatever he will command (prob 3-4m) or is the cap space more valuable? Tough question.
Last edited by DPG21920; 02-02-2012 at 02:16 PM.
Blair's contract doesn't end before 2013, so this isn't a cap space issue this summer.
assuming Amir Johnson can only be acquired with the Bonner contract, the cap implication for 2012 isn't that dramatic as well. he eats 2.4 million cap space compared to the situation before the trade. considering we won't get a premium FA and would need to overpay a player of Amir's level to come here anyhow, this isn't a bad deal as well.
just a guess: Spurs do the trade, amnesty RJ, re sign Tim for 8, bring in Lorbek for 3 per, this still leaves about 3-4 million for another FA.
Tim-Tiago-Lorbek-Johnson-Blair looks like a high quality front court rotation. much better than what we currently have.
so yes, I would do it.
I find it unlikely they move Bonner, it would be Blair IMO.
Also Blair will be looking for a contract and his final year is fully Non-guaranteed.
Best case scenario is that the spurs could move RJ for a big then use the amnesty on Bonner in the offseason..
Yeah, Bonner+JA for Amir Johnson? I'd do it, too.
Which means the Spurs don't have to talk to him until 2013.
If Blair is traded, I would expect something similar to the Hill trade where the Spurs get a low lottery pick in return.
Blair for Gustavo ayon.
Good point.
But I'm not sure the Spurs would be willing to include Bonner in a Johnson trade and I actually think the Raptors might be more interested in Jefferson, if they first fail to sign Chandler, that is. They desperately need a starting caliber SF, outside shooting and credible veterans. He fits the bill on all counts. And because they'd dump Johnson's contract in the trade, have a lot of cap space and are willing to spend, his contract wouldn't be the financial burden for them that it is for the Spurs. The Spurs should offer Jefferson and Blair for Johnson and Gray, then waive Thomas. This would drop approximately $4.3 million from their payroll and give them a more balanced roster.
big game from Johnson last nicht. (18-13-3)
in this form he would definitely be a nice acquisition.
before that game he delivered a stretch of multiple weak games. it was reported, that some personal off court issues might be the reason for his lack of effort. well, whatever is going on off court, sometimes a change of scenery is seen as a chance to solve such issues. maybe the Raptors think the same way?
I know absolutely nothing about Amir other than he was drafted by the pistons with Maxiel and both were hyped as contributors and is now with the Raptors. In case anyone else is in my shoes, here some info I dug up on the guy:
Amir Johnson is only 24 years old but this is actually his 6th season. This guy isn't the complete package but provides some nice assets. Hes a legit 6'10 and hes super athletic. Last season he played a career high 25.7 minutes which led to him producing career highs in ppg (9.6) rebounding (6.4) and FT% (78% with 2.2FTA). One disappointing statistic is his BPG, in 2007/08, he averaged 1.3 on just 12 MPG. Last season he averaged 1.2 BPG. BPG is one of those situation stats though.. not always beneficial to the team so not a big deal.
Beyond statistic, does anyone know what his gameplay/style is like?
with Bargnani playing PF, Johnson is moved to center more often than he should. likely a reason why he struggles this season. he is to small and light for that. he is a pure PF. limited on offense, not much range, but can play a decent P&R and is a very good offensive rebounder. finishes well at the rim and used to score quite efficient. (not this season)
good help defender, average man defender.
hard working hustle player.
Then the question begs would they prefer to get more size/center in return for Johnson?
I want to say the best trade scenario for us is Bonner and JA because then our cap flexibility wouldn't be affected at all. But realistically it would probably take Blair too.
From your insight, he sounds to be an instant upgrade over Blair.. but whether hes a 5 million dollar upgrade would be the big question. For Bonner and James Anderson this is a no brainer though.
Mel, since Blair is non-guaranteed, do you not think the Spurs will view him as an expiring to open up additional cap space next year? If they know they want cap space and that Blair will want to extend, would trading him this year not make sense?
He barely makes the minimum, so there is no real cap space to be gained.
Trading him seems a strong possibility. Much like with Hill, they get three very cheap years and then trade him before they have to pay him. A similar trade for a draft pick wouldn't surprise me.
I know he's cheap but depending on Tim they might need every bit of cap space they can get. It will be interesting to see his trade value considering his extremely valuable, albeit small, contract.
I can't see it, but I didn't see the sense behind allowing the options on Mahinmi and Anderson to lapse either.
As to his value, who knows? It just takes one GM to like him. As much as he's fallen out of favor on ST, he is still an NBA rotation-quality player that has a year left on a very cheap contract.
Isn't tonight the deadline when unguaranteed contracts become guaranteed?
Yes, that's why Malcolm Thomas was waived this morning.
I think Spurs want to trade him sooner, rather than later, due to their intentions of not having the desire to pay him 4-5 million per year in a few years. ( I don't think they believe he's worth that; considering his size/limited ceiling and due to the questionable longevity and durability of his ligaments (sans ACLs) that have been overworking themselves.
The reason why the sooner the better, may not have much to do with cap-space IMO. But much more to do with getting the highest return in value. If they wait til next year to trade him, they will get less value back because he'd likely be a half-year rental/showcase essentially. I'm willing to bet Blair will be gone by the 2012 draft, if Spurs can find a deal they like.
Last edited by MaNu4Tres; 02-07-2012 at 12:10 PM.
If you meant 2012, I agree. The Hill formula.
Fixed. That's what I meant.
My masterplan:
RJ+JA+Joseph (if needed)+1st rd pick for Kaman..
Trade Blair in offseason for late 1st rd pick (maybe Boston)
Amnesty Bonner in the offseason
This would allow the core group to remain for a le and keep core young players. Also free up an additional 15 mil for the offseason..Just a thought
Zero chance that the league lets the Hornets take back RJ's contract.
I would never say zero, but I agree the chances are not good..Just a best case scenario
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