Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview

[ohmwrecker]

Disagree with your assumption. He's got two full days left to heal and even if he's not 100%, I think he's a "go". It's the playoffs!

It's not my assumption, you half-wit. I was speculating on his availabiltiy for game 1 based on the information available.
At any rate, team doctor Tony Parker says Hill will play. Is that good enough for you?

[The Truth #6]

Well, I hope it works. *fingers crossed* I think the Spurs really need to jump on the Mavs right out of the gate. I would hate for the Spurs to have to play from behind the whole game.
Manu deserves a lot of credit for taking the team over when Parker went out, but don't forget that Hill was his running mate. You can't really just plug in Temple and expect the same result. Especially in the playoffs against a team that matches up so well.

Not saying it's a great option but I like him better than Mason. It sounds like Parker won't start so as to keep Manu in the starting lineup. and if Hill isn't ready then I'm not sure what else Pop will do. I imagine a short leash and a change by game 2 with either Hill back or Tony in the starting five if Hill still isn't ready.

In other words, Pop will have to juggle this as it goes.

[in2deep]

If D Blair averages around 15 mpg. Spurs got this series.

[AFBlue]

It's not my assumption, you half-wit. I was speculating on his availabiltiy for game 1 based on the information available.
At any rate, team doctor Tony Parker says Hill will play. Is that good enough for you?

First of all, no need for name-calling just because I disagree with your assumption.

Your original post framed Hill's absence as a certainty, so I was checking to see if you knew something I didn't. You confirmed that you made an assumption based on the reports you'd read, so I weighed in with my thoughts.

Try not to get all bent out of shape.

[AFBlue]

If D Blair averages around 15 mpg. Spurs got this series.

As long as he doesn't commit 5 fouls in those 15 minutes, then I think you're right. He's too productive and efficient not to have an impact if he logs regular minutes.

[RiverwalkParade]

I have never seen the regular season series be so insignificant.

We all know that the Mavs took the series 3-1, but let’s look at the games a bit

Game #1-Spurs win without Parker and Duncan
Game #2-Mavs win in overtime. Again Spurs were without Parker. Kris Humphries was a big difference maker for the Mavs with 5 Offensive Rebounds and a +/- of +15 (Kris Humphries?!?!?!)
Game #3-Mavs win after making up a 10 point deficit and scoring 42 in the fourth quarter. Manu injured after 7 minutes of play.
Game #4-Post-trade Mavs win while Duncan and Manu watch and Hill leaves injured after five minutes.

Game one of this series will be the first time both teams have played each other at full strength.

This is why I love Popovich. He rests his two stars, gets a good look at how the new Mavs team plays together and the team still keeps it compe ive. Spurs in 6.

[ohmwrecker]

First of all, no need for name-calling just because I disagree with your assumption.

Your original post framed Hill's absence as a certainty, so I was checking to see if you knew something I didn't. You confirmed that you made an assumption based on the reports you'd read, so I weighed in with my thoughts.

Try not to get all bent out of shape.

I was responding to the dude that said Temple was starting. Why didn't you ask him for his source? My post was a speculative strategy suggestion in response to the already implied assumption that Hill was not available. Try to pay attention.

[in2deep]

As long as he doesn't commit 5 fouls in those 15 minutes, then I think you're right. He's too productive and efficient not to have an impact if he logs regular minutes.

well the way I look at it is. If Pop is willing to give him 15mpg means he is contributing and when Blair contributes, SPurs are close to unbeatable.

[ohmwrecker]

If D Blair averages around 15 mpg. Spurs got this series.

There is no reason why he should play less than Bonner.

[trypldubl]

To me one of the big keys of the series depends on the defensive scheme the spurs play on Dirk. If the Pop sends double teams out on dirk when he is on the perimeter, the mavs either get an open three or a wing drives to into the lane that makes our defense collapse. This would give them either a layup, open shot out on the perimeter or an easy pass to one of their bigs down low.

[EVAY]

So how are the Spurs gonna work out the 'rebounding-vs.pick and roll defense' thing? Isn't that some of what has been the problem with the Spurs/Mavs the last few years?

Duncan will not be put on Nowitzki because he is not mobile enough. So whoever is the other 'big' will have to go out against Nowitzki, leaving Duncan under the basket.

So that means that Duncan is gonna be responsible for virtually all of our defensive rebounding, meaning he is gonna have to have help, because he is foul prone under there due to his mobility problems.

So how then, do we defend the pick and roll? Whoever goes out after Dirk will end up with the small and our guard defender will end up on Dirk, because Duncan has to be in position for potential rebounds.

So how do we do it?

[AFBlue]

I was responding to the dude that said Temple was starting. Why didn't you ask him for his source? My post was a speculative strategy suggestion in response to the already implied assumption that Hill was not available. Try to pay attention.

Responding to who? I don't see anyone passing off the assumption that Hill wouldn't play as fact prior to your first post.

You just came out with this...

With Hill being out for game 1, I am really concerned about the "Temple as placeholder" strategy.

FWIW, I understand that Hill's availability wasn't the focus of your post as much as Temple, which is where your "speculative strategy suggestion" comes in. And I honestly wouldn't have made a deal out of it, except that you had to insult my intelligence.

With that I've reached my limit for pointless arguments for the day.

[objective]

My biggest factor would be to minimize the damage caused by the suspect foursome: The Centerpiece, the Masonpiece, the Bonnerpiece, and the Dicepiece. Those are 4 guys that could absolutely derail any chance the Spurs have to win no matter how well Manu does or what Tim does or whether Parker is any good or not and whatever Hill does.

Those 4 are completely suspect, and the more Pop trusts them or does his Pop routine of over-playing scrubs, the harder it is for the Spurs to win as underdogs. Dallas are deserving favorites, and will have a more manageable game to win when Bonner and Mason do their expected playoff choking.

McDyess might be the least trouble, he's been up and down and has looked good at times against the Mavs this year. But he's the least risky. Centerpiece is usually a disaster, but in limited time maybe he can be useful against guys like Butler.

But the two absolute biggest risks against Spurs victories are Bonner and Mason. Bonner is about as playoff proven as Ian Mahinmi. I remember last playoffs how the one game he had that looked decent on paper wasn't even legit, it was bad bricktown and he didn't hit a shot until Parker singlehandedly got the Spurs a double digit lead and then the noose around Bonner's neck was loosened and he got to pile on (the sole Spurs win). even the last game this year against the Mavs he was full playoff Bonner being a chokemaster until the game was completely out of reach and was just about over, so with the pressure off he knocked down his first bucket of the game.

Mason is just all kinds of choking fail. At least Bonner is an active defender. Maybe not great, maybe not even especially good, but he's trying his hardest out there. I don't see how anyone can think the same of Mason. Mason has all the same playoff shot-choking of Bonner plus worse defense and bad turnovers. I swear to GOD, I feel more comfortable with Garrett Temple playing instead of Mason, and I'm not even that enamored with Temple. But Mason might get the Pop coaching quirk treatment of a ton of minutes.

So instead of saying that "the shooters like Bonner and Mason need to step up", I'd phrase it as "the shooters like Bonner and Mason need to be sat down the moment their suckage starts".

If one of those 4 plays well (McDyess), one plays okay (Bogans), and the other two aren't allowed to derail the Spurs, then I'm liking the Spurs chances more.

[said7]

I took a look at the stats regarding the 3-point shooting. In March the team shot .370 but then took a nose dive in April with .314. Unfortunately, the Spurs are going through a tough stretch from the behind the arc and Mason, whose specialty supposed to be the 3-point shot, is shooting 26% in April. Since Manu has the most attempts per game, I think that he will take most of the load. Hopefully Bonner, who is second in 3-point attempts, will step up and help.

Absolutely the most important of the list. Bonner, Mason and RJ are gonna get looks at threes. Gotta make the open ones.

[Slippy]

Can't look past RJ as an x-factor for me. When he's in the right mindset , his scoring along with defense and rebounding causes all sorts of trouble. When settling for the three, playing passive, he tends to become a non-factor.

[ohmwrecker]

I understand that Hill's availability wasn't the focus of your post as much as Temple, which is where your "speculative strategy suggestion" comes in. And I honestly wouldn't have made a deal out of it, except that you had to insult my intelligence.

I suppose it would've been less confusing if I had said "if" rather than "with" and if I had been the first poster to discuss the possibility of Hill not playing then I would understand you possibly asking for a source.
However, everyone is discussing the issue with the same information and that is what I am basing my comment on. I would hope that was pretty obvious to everyone participating and I wouldn't have to spend 4 other comments trying to explain the first one to the only person who didn't grasp it.

[gospursgojas]

3. Pop and Common Sense
In 2006 and 2009, Pop made glaring mistakes in the playoffs against the Mavs. Too much small ball doomed the Spurs in 2006; Pop overreacted to the mismatches and had the Spurs playing a then uncharted brand of basketball. Last postseason, Pop inexplicably buried Hill on the bench to begin the series. Additionally, Pop's rotations neglected the defensive end of the court until it was too late.

The teams are too evenly matched for Pop to author another blunder and the Spurs come out on top. Rather than trying to be the hero, Pop needs to rely on common sense. Don't try to fit a square peg (a struggling player) into a round hole (playing time). Don't overreact to matchups that don't favor the Spurs (See: Nowitzki, Dirk). Don't be afraid to play those who have performed well all season (See: Blair, DeJuan). In other words, don't out-think things.

This and I would have included the oficiating as well. Will they let the Spurs defend Dirk?

[callo1]

3. Pop and Common Sense
In 2006 and 2009, Pop made glaring mistakes in the playoffs against the Mavs. Too much small ball doomed the Spurs in 2006; Pop overreacted to the mismatches and had the Spurs playing a then uncharted brand of basketball. Last postseason, Pop inexplicably buried Hill on the bench to begin the series. Additionally, Pop's rotations neglected the defensive end of the court until it was too late.

Couldn't agree more on that one.

I think Bonner is a key as well, because he can lighten Timmy's workload a bit if he hits shots from range.

I hope we see RJ, Manu, George, and TP really challenge at the rim. Last year the Spurs didn't take advantage of foul situations well. I do not want to see the "live and die" by the three mentality.

I have no doubts RJ will continue to be a force on the glass, I just hope he stays in attack mode on offense.

[callo1]

Oh yeah, and if I see the ball in Mason's hand with him trying to run the point, I think I'll puke.

[gospursgojas]

Oh yeah, and if I see the ball in Mason's hand with him trying to run the poit, I think I'll puke.

I just did...thinking about that

[TD 21]

Unfortunately, revenge won't be easy. Outside of the Lakers, no other team in the Western Conference boasts as many challenging matchups for San Antonio -- as has been seen the last two times the Spurs took on the Mavs in the playoffs. Even worse, the Mavs seem to be the world's most comfortable basketball team within the confines of the AT&T Center.

8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble
Though he's coming off the least foul-prone regular season of his career, you can throw out that statistic when Tim Duncan goes up against the Mavs. Simply put, the Mavs are constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble. They have a pair of bruising centers to be physical with Duncan. Their offense, which is built around isolation plays and pick-and-roll plays, puts Duncan in awkward positions on the court. Oh and that Dirk Nowitzki guy isn't exactly an easy opponent for Duncan to defend.

2. Rebounding
The one overriding aspect that has tipped the balance of power in Dallas' favor in recent years is rebounding. In the 2006 series, the Mavs outrebounded the Spurs in all seven games. The 2009 series saw the Mavs outrebound the Spurs in every game except for one: Game 2, the sole contest the Spurs won.

Small ball is the most obvious culprit, though the Mavs having superior rebounders at the swingman positions has also been a leading reason. This year, the Spurs can contend on the glass -- but the coaching staff must resist small ball as much as possible, find minutes for Blair and urge each and every player to gang rebound. (By the way, if Jefferson is searching for an area where he can most help, rebounding is the answer.)

1. Manu Ginobili
Without question the absolute top key for the Spurs in this forthcoming series against the Mavs is the play of Manu Ginobili. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have been Ginobili's team. If he can be at the top of his game, the Spurs will be a difficult out in the playoffs -- for any team in the league.

Ginobili's importance is magnified against Dallas. First of all, the Mavs have the post-defenders and help-defenders to slow Duncan in the low block. Secondly, Parker is still rounding into form following his hand injury. Last but not least is the fact that the Mavs don't truly have a defender who should have much success against Ginobili. It just so happens that Dallas' biggest weakness defensively plays right into Ginobili's hands. Hopefully he's ready to take advantage and coldly serve the revenge.

Really, outside of Nowitzki (who I've always maintained Spurs fans overrate; give any quality player with size a bunch of smalls guarding him and he'll look better than he really is), who? This is a simple case of overrating the opposition. I'd still give him the edge, but the way Butler is playing, he's their version of Jefferson. Marion is virtually a non scorer, Kidd, so long as he's not allowed to get his feet set from three, is the same thing. Dampier/Haywood are a solid duo, but neither are major offensive threats. The three small guards are somewhat difficult match-ups, but I doubt Beaubois is in the rotation (at least to start) and if Hill can move laterally well enough, between him and the fresh legged Parker, who has far less offensively responsibility than last season, the Spurs should be adequate in this regard.

8. They have to worry about guarding the Spurs various weapons, too. Last time I checked, Duncan has always dominated them. "They got two legit centers to guard him", so? He may no longer be playing at a historically great level, but when healthy and rested (which is he now), he's still easily one of the best players in the league. Why should having two guys his size to guard him automatically mean he'll be in tough? Or do you have that little confidence in him, that if he can't go against undersized players, you think he'll struggle or be average?

The Mavs aren't at all constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble; the Lakers are. As if Dampier/Haywood are major offensive threats. News flash: a lot of teams offenses are built are isolation and pick-and-roll plays. They're no different. They don't put him in any more an awkward position than most. The big thing is Pop needs to stay big around Duncan and play McDyess extended minutes. I don't care about his shooting, he's the Spurs best bet at adequately guarding Nowitzki and is a solid rebounder. Plus, unlike Bonner, he won't be overwhelmed by the moment.

Duncan doesn't defend Nowitzki, but if they did go head to head, sure Nowitzki would have an advantage on offense, but so would Duncan. That wimp can't guard him on the block (look how quickly and easily Duncan scored on him the rare times he got caught on him in transition in '06), despite the fact that he's actually bigger: 7-0 243 to 6-11 240.

2. It's all about staying big and not doubling Nowitzki. If Pop plays McDyess extended minutes and doesn't double Nowitzki, the Spurs should be fine on the glass because they're actually a much better rebounding team. The two best and three of the four best rebounders in the series are Spurs. Marion and Butler are excellent rebounding wingmen, true, but Jefferson (at least recently) and Ginobili aren't that far behind.

1. What about Marion, Butler, Kidd and Stevenson? They're all around Ginobili's size, isn't that automatically enough to guard someone? According to you, it is with Duncan. Why the significantly higher confidence in Ginobili? Marion is an elite defender.

Here's a key to this series: One of Marion, Butler or Terry, will not be able to finish games for the Mavs. They'll need one of Dampier/Haywood in to guard Duncan, unless they're willing to put Nowitzki on him.

[Solid D]

2. It's all about staying big and not doubling Nowitzki. If Pop plays McDyess extended minutes and doesn't double Nowitzki, the Spurs should be fine on the glass because they're actually a much better rebounding team..

You will see doubling of Dirk. No doubt about it. I think the Spurs will mix it up with who they double with but you'll see it. It has had some good results, depending on who is on the floor.

[gospursgojas]

Do you guys think we'll see any hack-a-damp or hack-a-hey??? Both are right at 60% FT

[Solid D]

I would rather the Spurs get up into Jason Terry (without getting called for a foul) and not let him shoot.

[TD 21]

You will see doubling of Dirk. No doubt about it. I think the Spurs will mix it up with who they double with but you'll see it. It has had some good results, depending on who is on the floor.

Unfortunately, I think you're right. I'm not opposed to the odd time doubling, but I think it's both foolish and difficult with him, to do it either consistently or semi consistently. It's easy with a post guy to come from the blind side, on the move, on the catch, when he turns middle, etc. What about a guy who plays around the elbows and often times faces up? He can see where it's coming from and make the easy out pass, which puts the Spurs in rotation (scramble) mode and inevitably leads to open shots. I don't look at Nowitzki as being so great that he can almost single handedly lead the Mavs past the Spurs, but if the Spurs allow the rest of their players open looks, they will lose.