Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview

[rjv]

after reading this i'm persuaded to believe we have no chance.

[timvp]

Really less people outside Dallas realized what a great season Marion played at the defensive end. They see his stats and compare to his suns stats and think "He is done". He always took the best SG/SF and i cant remember a game where he was healthy and got destroyed, but i remember a lot of games he gave the opponent star a pretty hard time.

Marion on Ginobili has never worked in the past ... I don't know why it would work now. Marion is a very good defender when he's isolated against his man. What he's not as good at, however, is navigating his way around screens. If Marion guards Ginobili, the first thing the Spurs will do is send a bigman to set a pick on Marion. If Marion at this late date of his career can suddenly handle pick-and-roll defense, the Spurs will tip their caps and head on vacation.

I just don't see it happening, though. I'm not even sure the Mavs will attempt putting Marion on Ginobili too often.

And for some minutes the Mavs can even go to Stevenson.

Stevenson is the worst offensive shooting guard in the NBA. Even if he slows down Ginobili, he'll negate his defense on the other end of the court.

[petee]

0. Pouncing on it as soon as the Mavs start choking

[timvp]

Good post timvp!

My biggest concerns are two-fold. Transition D, as you and others have mentioned, is one but the 2nd concern is, screen-roll defense and offense.

The Spurs have traditionally had difficulty defending Dirk and the PG, whoever that has been, in the two-man game. The Spurs have blitzed Dirk early to get the ball out of his hands but the end-results have been mixed. When it has gone wrong is when the rotations were slow leading to layups and extra-pass 3s. The Spurs have to stick with Dirk and deny him his favorite spots like the elbow and near the 3-point line as a trailer or on pick-and-pops.

On offensive screen-roll plays, the Mavs have been defending that by following the dribbler with two players (ex. Kidd and Heywood both following Parker). In those situations, the ball-handler needs to get the ball to open man early before the Big has a time to recover. Tony struggled with that on Wednesday by either forcing a bad shot in traffic or trying get a forced pass off at a bad angle at the baseline.

If the Spurs can succeed in these two areas, they will defeat Dallas.

Good post

Perhaps the Spurs will go old school when defending the Nowitzki pick-and-rolls and switch everything. With the bigger backcourt of Hill and Ginobili, that may be an option once again.

[timvp]

Really, outside of Nowitzki (who I've always maintained Spurs fans overrate; give any quality player with size a bunch of smalls guarding him and he'll look better than he really is), who? This is a simple case of overrating the opposition. I'd still give him the edge, but the way Butler is playing, he's their version of Jefferson. Marion is virtually a non scorer, Kidd, so long as he's not allowed to get his feet set from three, is the same thing. Dampier/Haywood are a solid duo, but neither are major offensive threats. The three small guards are somewhat difficult match-ups, but I doubt Beaubois is in the rotation (at least to start) and if Hill can move laterally well enough, between him and the fresh legged Parker, who has far less offensively responsibility than last season, the Spurs should be adequate in this regard.

It's not as much the personnel as much as it is the way their team is constructed. It's no accident that their team is built to attack San Antonio's weak spots. The Spurs stood in their way and the Mavs focused their efforts on finding their way around the Spurs.

-The Spurs thrive on cutting down the opposition's assists ... but that doesn't matter against Dallas because the Mavs do most of their damage in isolation sets.

-The Spurs get easy shots when teams double Duncan ... but the Mavs don't double Duncan and have the bigmen to pull it off without getting torched.

-The Spurs purposely allow teams to shoot midrange jumpers ... the Mavs have players who can drain midrange jumpers.

-The Spurs funnel penetration to the baseline ... the Mavs almost always have four players on the court that can penetrate and take advantage.

-Parker and Ginobili thrive against bigger guards and small frontcourts ... the Mavs have smaller guards and a big frontcourt.

Etc, etc . . .

If there's a team in the West that gives the Spurs more matchup problems outside of L.A., I'd like to know of that team.

8. They have to worry about guarding the Spurs various weapons, too. Last time I checked, Duncan has always dominated them.

You must not check very often. Especially considering that the Mavs rarely double-team him. If other teams used that tactic, Duncan would shred them. Duncan plays well against Dallas usually but no other team gets away with as many single-teams against Duncan than Dallas.

Why should having two guys his size to guard him automatically mean he'll be in tough? Or do you have that little confidence in him, that if he can't go against undersized players, you think he'll struggle or be average?

Huh? Dampier and Haywood are probably two of the top ten post defenders in the NBA. Ignoring that duo would be foolish.

I'm confident in Duncan but the Mavs have enough holes on defense that they don't have to solely rely on Duncan to produce offense.

The Mavs aren't at all constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble; the Lakers are. As if Dampier/Haywood are major offensive threats. News flash: a lot of teams offenses are built are isolation and pick-and-roll plays. They're no different. They don't put him in any more an awkward position than most.

Watch more basketball.

The Mavs almost always have a player either driving at Duncan or they force Duncan to rotate out on the perimeter. No other team forces Duncan to move as much on the defensive end.

1. What about Marion, Butler, Kidd and Stevenson? They're all around Ginobili's size, isn't that automatically enough to guard someone? According to you, it is with Duncan.

I don't even understand what you are whining about.

Anyways, I've already explained Marion and Stevenson vs. Ginobili. Butler is a below average defender and Kidd isn't very good against players who penetrate off the dribble.

[Slippy]

Shooters stepping up at number seven should be higher. With the way Manu's playing and Tony going into top gear, Spurs' shooters are going to get plenty good looks. Whether they deliver is a huge question mark.

Manu and Hill can be counted on but who else? Bonner seems like the first guy to step up but reading many posts about choking in the play-offs has me doubting the guy. RJ's 3-point shot just does not look like going in. He looks more comfortable shooting from 18-20 feet so here's hoping he adjusts when forced to shoot open. Mason if called upon has gotta be more selective. Shooting leaning and rushed 3-pointers is not his game. Rather see open shots with feet set. The problem is Mase after a disastrous season still doesn't know how to play to his limitations especially when handling the ball.

[mogrovejo]

I also agree that pick'n'roll defence is the key for the Spurs to win this series. The Spurs have struggled all season to defend it; the Mavs run an incredible amount/diversity of screenball plays - Kidd or Terry/Dirk is very difficult to stop especially with Kidd shooting well and with 2 shooters deep in the wings, Haywood is very quick stepping out to set the pick plus not the offensive liability Dampier is; Beaubois is one of the best p'n'r guards in the league, explosive turning the corner; ditto for Barea... the Mavs run the 1-on-3 ballscreen, the 2/4, the 1/2, from the top, from the wing, a double screen where Dirk pops and the center or Marion rolls...I'm intrigued to see how Popovich will defend the play - I wouldn't be surprised if this severely limits Blair's ability to stay on the floor and forces Pop to go with Jefferson at the 4 to have more quickness on the floor.

The transition game is the 2nd most important thing the Spurs must take care off. The Mavericks can be a very good rebounding team when they put their mind on it + they have good rebounders in their backcourt that can grab the board and immediately bring the ball up. They also do a lot of stand and watch and can be very vulnerable to aggressive bigs, but I think the Spurs will be very conservative here and

I suspect the Spurs will switch a lot when defending the Mavs backcourt players and that may leave them vulnerable to their ISO plays + Haywood and Dampier will force Duncan to run the floor every possession and they'll contest every rebound. If I were Carlisle, I'd be mad if by the 4th quarter Duncan wasn't half-dead. I also think Parker will struggle if defended by Kidd or Terry (who struggles defending wings but is pretty decent on PGs).

I completely agree that Manu + shooters will be important - and Manu more as a playmaker/facilitator. The Mavs don't have anybody able to guard Ginobili except Beaubois but Carlisle won't trust him. But they flood the strongside and swarm the ball-handler on the pick'n'roll, so Manu's ability to read the game well, be a dangerous playmaker off picks and the Spurs ability to reverse the ball quickly and hit the naked wing 3 are going to be decisive.

I feel the Spurs are overall the superior team, the one that plays with more purpose and that should be tougher to handle for most good teams, but if there's some master plan by Popovich to suddenly unveil Mahinmi as a secret weapon he's been hiding all season, then this is the series. The Mavs are a tougher matchup for the Spurs than the Lakers.

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

I'm calling it now... Terry, Caron, and Erika will dish out cheap shots at Ginobili...

I really hope not, but I can see Terry doing something

[Blackjack]

Props, mogrovejo.

I'm not sure if you've stepped it up considerably on this side of the board or if I've just taken more notice, but it's definitely nice to see another quality poster contributing.

[Brazil]

Very good thread confirming (if needed) that Timvp is essential to this board.

Everything has been said and well commented.

Personally I have a concern regarding how George will respond to his new status in PO: it is one thing to be a key player in the RS it is another to do so in the PO. Hill will start and I honestly believe that this is the best for the team but how George will perform in this position and how TP will handle his new role off the bench. These two points are IMO also key to a spurs W.

[sefant77]

I completely agree that Manu + shooters will be important - and Manu more as a playmaker/facilitator. The Mavs don't have anybody able to guard Ginobili except Beaubois but Carlisle won't trust him. But they flood the strongside and swarm the ball-handler on the pick'n'roll, so Manu's ability to read the game well, be a dangerous playmaker off picks and the Spurs ability to reverse the ball quickly and hit the naked wing 3 are going to be decisive.

I would love to see more Beaubois, specially against Parker but he has still one major leak and thats picknroll defense.

So we will see if he gets courttime and how much after getting burned the first 1-2 times. On the other side he would be able to gas out Parker pretty nice because he would run all the time.

[spurs10]

Manu has been putting on clinics of late with pick and roll offense that should be equally challenging to defend. Is Butler or anyone else as explosive as Manu in getting to the rim? I'm hoping RJ in part is our answer to Butler and they have no good answer to Manu.

[westbound17]

Go Spurs! beat ALLAS! The Big 3 must dominate plus Jefferson must be the player that we're expecting in the offseason.

contain No-D-Witzki..not to mention his *ehem* Girlfriend. lol

[ManuTP9]

Thanks for the analysis Timvp.

[G-Nob]

Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Prediction:

Game 1: Mavs win

Media: We knew Dallas just had too many weapons
Mavs: We executed our game plan
Spurs: We need to do a better job defensively
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs
Spurstalk Threads: 4 rings, b*tches!

Game 2: Spurs Win

Media: The championship pride would not allow a sweep
Mavs: "We need to figure out a plan for Ginobili"
Spurs: "Did what we came here to do, get a split. Now we have to take care of our home court."
Spurstalk Mavs Fans (after 1-day silence): We're still the better team. Mavs in 6.
Spurstalk Threads: Ditka couldn't stop Manu tonight.

Game 3: Mavs win

Media: The Spurs are showing their age
Mavs: We took back home court, now its in our hands.
Spurs: We need to do a better job on dirk
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: Bring on the Suns!
Spurstalk Threads: Mase is getting too many minutes. Fire Pop

Game 4: Spurs win

Media: Terry punches Matt Bonner
Mavs: We have to keep Parker out of the paint( followed by mavs player threatning to knock TP on his azz next time he gets in the paint)
Spurs: Tony got good penetration tonight
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: F-you, Salvatore! The refs screwed us again!
Spurstalk Threads: The ghetto smurf, flying nut puncher returns!

-Terry Suspended for Game 5
-Stu Jackson warns of premeditated flagrants
-Cuban fined 35K for criticizing refs

Game 5: Mavs win
Media: Mavs FT 22-25, Spurs FT 6-10 (Free JET t-shirts are passed out)
Mavs: We felt the game was fairly called
Spurs: No more strategy, here on out, its just basketball
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: No JET and we still beat your azzes
Spurstalk Threads: It ain't over till its over. (Prompting another No Limit rallying thread)

Game 6: Spurs win
Media: The Mavs can't match the Spurs championship experience
Mavs: This is why we played all season t get home court
Spurs: We need to get one more in their house
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (very nervous) Hard fought series, we're still the better team, though.
Spurstalk Threads: This time Manu won't foul Dirk!

Game 7: If Mavs win
Media: Spurs are too old, mavs were too much for them
Mavs: This is why we made the trade
Spurs: Changes need to be made
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs, don't cry
Spurstalk Threads: Four rings. Whens the draft?

Game 7: If Spurs win
Media: Never underestimate the heart of a champion
Mavs: Give em credit, they played us well.
Spurs: It was a hard-fought series, we're glad to be passed them
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (after long absence) we still hate your team but Spurstalk is waaaaaaay better than DB.com
Spurstalk Threads: Drive for 5!

[Solid D]

Props, mogrovejo.

I'm not sure if you've stepped it up considerably on this side of the board or if I've just taken more notice, but it's definitely nice to see another quality poster contributing.

Amen.

[taps]

Sorry to go off topic I do not mean to derail the thread:

Does anybody know what happened to the NT press conference Manu was supposed to hold at the end of the Regular Season.

I haven't found any news saying it was postponed. Did I go ADD and miss it? Anyone?

[polandprzem]

Of course we mostly are talking about transition, rebounds, defending screen situations, defending Dirk and Hills ability to switch as well as defend slashers.

One name Tim Duncan was not mentioned much.
I think one of the keys will be to put big mavs players in a foul trouble. If Tim can somehow still dominate inside we can force Mavs to double Tim and spurs feeds of it on ofense it flows better and it's contructed mostly on sucking opponents D where Tim is and he is a great passer.
Like you can see backcourt players setting themselves close to the 3 point line just when Tim gets more attention. He can throw a cross pass or spurs can create a good passing lane for the open shooter -> Matt, manu, RJ.

unfortunatley mavs have so many weapons that they can live with single coverage on those last minutes when Mavs frontcourt will be in trouble, they gonna have 20 point lead in the 4th by then.

I wonder what can Pop invent, I mean really invent to set spurs offense.
On defense - more rebounds or more transition? If transition we have Hill not healthy and Tony bit slower and not in game rhythm [shape]

Tough to deal with those mavs I'm tellin ya

[EricB]

Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Prediction:

Game 1: Mavs win

Media: We knew Dallas just had too many weapons
Mavs: We executed our game plan
Spurs: We need to do a better job defensively
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs
Spurstalk Threads: 4 rings, b*tches!

Game 2: Spurs Win

Media: The championship pride would not allow a sweep
Mavs: "We need to figure out a plan for Ginobili"
Spurs: "Did what we came here to do, get a split. Now we have to take care of our home court."
Spurstalk Mavs Fans (after 1-day silence): We're still the better team. Mavs in 6.
Spurstalk Threads: Ditka couldn't stop Manu tonight.

Game 3: Mavs win

Media: The Spurs are showing their age
Mavs: We took back home court, now its in our hands.
Spurs: We need to do a better job on dirk
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: Bring on the Suns!
Spurstalk Threads: Mase is getting too many minutes. Fire Pop

Game 4: Spurs win

Media: Terry punches Matt Bonner
Mavs: We have to keep Parker out of the paint( followed by mavs player threatning to knock TP on his azz next time he gets in the paint)
Spurs: Tony got good penetration tonight
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: F-you, Salvatore! The refs screwed us again!
Spurstalk Threads: The ghetto smurf, flying nut puncher returns!

-Terry Suspended for Game 5
-Stu Jackson warns of premeditated flagrants
-Cuban fined 35K for criticizing refs

Game 5: Mavs win
Media: Mavs FT 22-25, Spurs FT 6-10 (Free JET t-shirts are passed out)
Mavs: We felt the game was fairly called
Spurs: No more strategy, here on out, its just basketball
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: No JET and we still beat your azzes
Spurstalk Threads: It ain't over till its over. (Prompting another No Limit rallying thread)

Game 6: Spurs win
Media: The Mavs can't match the Spurs championship experience
Mavs: This is why we played all season t get home court
Spurs: We need to get one more in their house
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (very nervous) Hard fought series, we're still the better team, though.
Spurstalk Threads: This time Manu won't foul Dirk!

Game 7: If Mavs win
Media: Spurs are too old, mavs were too much for them
Mavs: This is why we made the trade
Spurs: Changes need to be made
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs, don't cry
Spurstalk Threads: Four rings. Whens the draft?

Game 7: If Spurs win
Media: Never underestimate the heart of a champion
Mavs: Give em credit, they played us well.
Spurs: It was a hard-fought series, we're glad to be passed them
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (after long absence) we still hate your team but Spurstalk is waaaaaaay better than DB.com
Spurstalk Threads: Drive for 5!

SO very well written. Good job.

[Man In Black]

End Of Season Per Minutes Using Points Created Method
Tim Duncan .746 Dirk Nowitzki .637
Ian Mahinmi .600 Jason Kidd .521
Manu Ginobili .575 Roderick Beaubois .486
DeJuan Blair .536 Brendan Haywood .479
Tony Parker .439 Erick Dampier .464
Matt Bonner .414 Shawn Marion .430
Antonio McDyess .410 Jason Terry .402
George Hill .369 Caron Butler .382
Richard Jefferson .361 J.J. Barea .369
Malik Hairston .323 Eduardo Najera .269
Roger Mason Jr. .289 Matt Carroll .194
Garrett Temple .256 DeShawn Stevenson .110
Keith Bogans .226

In a nuts , think of this per minute score as a batting average. The higher the average the better your team is.
A few assumptions though.

1- All stats are stats gained as playing for their current teams. So anything that Butler, Haywood, or Stevenson got as Wizards are not included.

2-Defensive players whose very game is predicated by position defense don't do very well because position defense is not a stat that shows up in a box score. You can, however, look at an opposing player who that DP is supposed to cover. If that player scores lower per minute against the DP, then you know that DP did his job well enough.

3-I need sources to get numbers for Ginobili & Hill as starters and for Parker as a X-Factor off the bench. The numbers listed for them are just for total minutes. So while indicative of what was done throughout the season, it doesn't give us what it's really like right now.

4-It would seem that Pop can play big and not lose that much, at least in limited minutes. Both Blair, and surprisingly, Mahinmi, play more positively than negatively. Looking at Dallas, Terry, Marion, & Butler's low scores don't bode well for MavNots.

5-For anyone who says Duncan has lost it? The guy is still playing at a Superstar Level.
Anyone over a .650 is a superstar in efficiency...See that Dirk Nowitzki? Although Dirk's All Star Level ain't nothing to sniff at.

6-Just to give you a look into how it works:
.650 and over is a superstar
.550 to .649 is all-star level
.450 to .549 is strong starter level
.350 to .449 is situational player level
.250 to .349 is needs lots of improvement level
.150 to .249 is probably a d-league level player
.001 to .149 so how did you get in the NBA again?

[AFBlue]

I suppose it would've been less confusing if I had said "if" rather than "with"

Glad you could admit the misconception was your fault.

And now we're more confident that your speculative suggestion concern regarding Temple is irrelevant. I too, wouldn't like it IF Temple were a placeholder in the event that Hill were unable to play. See how I phrased that there to avoid confusion?

[ohmwrecker]

Glad you could admit the misconception was your fault.

And now we're more confident that your speculative suggestion concern regarding Temple is irrelevant. I too, wouldn't like it IF Temple were a placeholder in the event that Hill were unable to play. See how I phrased that there to avoid confusion?

Most speculation is irrelevant. Do you have to blame someone everytime you experience misconception or are just an argumentative and contrary person by nature? Temple WAS used as a placeholder while Hill was injured. You still seemed confused.

[AFBlue]

Most speculation is irrelevant. Do you have to blame someone everytime you experience misconception or are just an argumentative and contrary person by nature? Temple WAS used as a placeholder while Hill was injured. You still seemed confused.

I place blame where it's due.

As for Temple, I watch Spurs games and am very aware how he was used down the stretch. I was stating my preference for how to work the backcourt rotation in the playoffs in the event Hill were injured. But that appears to be a moot point since most indications now have Hill playing in some capacity.

Not confused now. You stated an assumption as fact, I asked for clarification and got it. It's been clear since then.

[ZB 512]

Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Prediction:

Game 1: Mavs win

Media: We knew Dallas just had too many weapons
Mavs: We executed our game plan
Spurs: We need to do a better job defensively
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs
Spurstalk Threads: 4 rings, b*tches!

Game 2: Spurs Win

Media: The championship pride would not allow a sweep
Mavs: "We need to figure out a plan for Ginobili"
Spurs: "Did what we came here to do, get a split. Now we have to take care of our home court."
Spurstalk Mavs Fans (after 1-day silence): We're still the better team. Mavs in 6.
Spurstalk Threads: Ditka couldn't stop Manu tonight.

Game 3: Mavs win

Media: The Spurs are showing their age
Mavs: We took back home court, now its in our hands.
Spurs: We need to do a better job on dirk
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: Bring on the Suns!
Spurstalk Threads: Mase is getting too many minutes. Fire Pop

Game 4: Spurs win

Media: Terry punches Matt Bonner
Mavs: We have to keep Parker out of the paint( followed by mavs player threatning to knock TP on his azz next time he gets in the paint)
Spurs: Tony got good penetration tonight
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: F-you, Salvatore! The refs screwed us again!
Spurstalk Threads: The ghetto smurf, flying nut puncher returns!

-Terry Suspended for Game 5
-Stu Jackson warns of premeditated flagrants
-Cuban fined 35K for criticizing refs

Game 5: Mavs win
Media: Mavs FT 22-25, Spurs FT 6-10 (Free JET t-shirts are passed out)
Mavs: We felt the game was fairly called
Spurs: No more strategy, here on out, its just basketball
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: No JET and we still beat your azzes
Spurstalk Threads: It ain't over till its over. (Prompting another No Limit rallying thread)

Game 6: Spurs win
Media: The Mavs can't match the Spurs championship experience
Mavs: This is why we played all season t get home court
Spurs: We need to get one more in their house
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (very nervous) Hard fought series, we're still the better team, though.
Spurstalk Threads: This time Manu won't foul Dirk!

Game 7: If Mavs win
Media: Spurs are too old, mavs were too much for them
Mavs: This is why we made the trade
Spurs: Changes need to be made
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs, don't cry
Spurstalk Threads: Four rings. Whens the draft?

Game 7: If Spurs win
Media: Never underestimate the heart of a champion
Mavs: Give em credit, they played us well.
Spurs: It was a hard-fought series, we're glad to be passed them
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (after long absence) we still hate your team but Spurstalk is waaaaaaay better than DB.com
Spurstalk Threads: Drive for 5!

haaa that was great

very well done

[ohmwrecker]

Not confused now. You stated an assumption as fact, I asked for clarification and got it. It's been clear since then.

An assumption, by definition, cannot be fact. The information available at the time I made the original comment was that Hill was questionable for game 1. The language I used, in that context, should be acceptable. Why it is worthy of a circular argument that doesn't seem to end is the only thing that doesn't make sense.