Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 41
  1. #1
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Post Count
    18,637
    31-9 after 40 games, on pace to win 63 or 64 games but I have a hard time getting overly excited about this year Spurs team. Maybe its because of the lack of wins against contenders, maybe it's still last year hangover or maybe it's because of my worried nature, but I'm not that optimistic of this year outcome.


    Offense is getting better, defense is getting worse:

    After 40 games played, Spurs are the 3rd best offensive team with a OffRtg of 108.0 and the 4th best defensive team with a DefRtg of 99.4.
    It may sound like Spurs are a very good team on both end of the floor but, behind these numbers, there is a huge discrepancy:
    First 20 games: OffRtg: 106.0; DefRtg: 95.9
    Last 20 games: OffRtg: 109.9; DefRtg: 103.3
    The defensive drop is especially big. Spurs were the 2nd best defensive team in the first 20 games and were 8th in the last 20 games.


    Why is the defense getting worse?

    Over the last 20 games, the 3 worst DefRtg for Spurs players are: Ginobili with 108.4, Duncan with 107.1 and 105.5. When they are all 3 on the court at the same time (204 minutes), their DefRtg is on astounding 120.8. In other words, the worst defensive trio in the NBA over the last 20 games is Ginobili/Duncan/Parker.
    While one could easily put that on their ages or not being in their best shape, the true reason being these awful numbers is likely that they are taking it easy. At the same time that they have awful defensive numbers, their offensive numbers are great: all 3 have an OffRtg above 113 and when they they are together on the court, the OffRtg is 125.1 which makes them the best offensive trio in the league. What seems likely is when they see the ability they have to score points, they aren't putting the necessary effort on the other end of the court. Ginobili, Duncan and Parker coasting defensively isn't that big of an issue at that stage of the season but they will need to step up after the ASG.

    Another issue of these 20 last games is the 3 point defense. In that stretch, Spurs are the second worst team in that area at 38.9% 3P% allowed. They are still not a lot of 3's per game (7.1) but it isn't good.

    For the rest of the defense (rebounding, protecting the rim...), Spurs have gone for great to good. I hope that after the ASG, with Green and Splitter back, Parker/Ginobili/Duncan trying more, Spurs could be back at the level they had in the first 20 games. They just don't have a player dominant enough offensively to go far in the playoffs without a good defense.


    And they said they were too old...

    Since December:
    Tim Duncan: 16.1ppg (.462 FG%), 11.2rpg, 3.1apg and 2.0bpg in 30.3mpg
    Manu Ginobili: 15.3ppg (.476 FG%, .3913P%), 4.7apg in 24.6mpg

    While they weren't that great in November, Tim and Manu have really raised their level since that. Their defense hasn't been very good but they are just producing stat-wise at an amazing level given their age.
    If you're not convince by how rare it is, just follow that link: http://bkref.com/tiny/XBRLc


    Spurs depth and pop sharing the minutes:

    Pop has been very cautious about playing time these past years and it's still the case this season. Parker led Spurs with 1164 minutes played but is only 74th in minutes played this season among NBA players. Pop is really spreading playing time with 7 players between 830 and 1161 minutes played.

    What is relatively new however is how great Spurs depth has been. Spurs really have 9 quality players in Parker, Mills, Belinelli, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Diaw, Splitter and Duncan. Among these 9 players, 8 have a PER above the league average of 15. Green is below average but as a perimeter defender, his contribution doesn't really shine PER-wise.
    Even Ayres hasn't been that bad lately. In the last 20 games, he leads Spurs in +/- with a NEtRtg of 14.7. That's his big difference with DeJuan Blair: he doesn't hurt the team.

    Finding the right starting lineup:

    Pop seems to hesitate on his starting lineup this year. So here are the OffRtg/DefRtg for the main options:
    Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter: 91.4/92.2 (137 min)
    Parker/Belinelli/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter: 95.1/91.0 (102 min)
    Parker/Belinelli/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan: 108.7/118.8 (62 min)
    Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan: 109.5/76.2 (61 min)

    While the sample size is way too small to draw some kind of conclusions, early results hints that starting Green would be the right move.
    What stats show more conclusively is how bad the Leonard/Duncan/Splitter combo is offensively. In 321 minutes played together, their OffRtg is 92.1. The obvious way to break this trio would be to start Diaw instead of Splitter. Diaw biggest weakness is his rebounding but it would be covered by Leonard and Duncan. If Diaw starts, Green seems more appropriate at SG than Belinelli since his playmaking will be less needed.


    Spurs' true MVP:

    Spurs are 13-0 when Nando is playing.
    Last edited by Bruno; 01-19-2014 at 02:30 PM.

  2. #2
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Post Count
    51,854
    RIP PlayNando

  3. #3
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Post Count
    51,854
    Does anyone have any stats on other teams shooting more than the Spurs? Like I sometimes it seems as if other teams are shooting at a fast rate compared to the Spurs, more shots equals more points. IDK, I don't even know what I'm talking about.

  4. #4
    Believe. SanDiegoSpursFan's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Post Count
    3,076
    Does anyone have any stats on other teams shooting more than the Spurs? Like I sometimes it seems as if other teams are shooting at a fast rate compared to the Spurs, more shots equals more points. IDK, I don't even know what I'm talking about.
    Are you talking about pace (possessions per 48 mins)?

  5. #5
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Post Count
    51,854
    Are you talking about pace (possessions per 48 mins)?
    Dude idk, That might be the term, sounds like it.

  6. #6
    Believe. SanDiegoSpursFan's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Post Count
    3,076
    Dude idk, That might be the term, sounds like it.
    ESPN has the Spurs at 14th among teams in terms of pace: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/tea...ort/paceFactor

  7. #7
    Veteran Baam's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Post Count
    4,013
    Thanks great read as always.

  8. #8
    Veteran Raven's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Post Count
    17,080
    Another issue of these 20 last games is the 3 point defense. In that stretch, Spurs are the second worst team in that area at 38.9% 3P% allowed. They are still not a lot of 3's per game (7.1) but it isn't good.

    this says it all tbh, anything less is deeply connected to this, solve this and we have the best team in the league again.

  9. #9
    Veteran Raven's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Post Count
    17,080
    Does anyone have any stats on other teams shooting more than the Spurs? Like I sometimes it seems as if other teams are shooting at a fast rate compared to the Spurs, more shots equals more points. IDK, I don't even know what I'm talking about.
    doesn't count in ORT or DRT

  10. #10
    Erryday I'm Hustlin' Robz4000's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Post Count
    38,382
    I was excited about the team coming into the season, but it's definitely been tempered down lately. I know its early but the lack of success against the league's elite is worrying. Tim and Tony really don't seem to play as well in those games (Tony especially). The Big 3 might just be too old to get it done finally. The good news is Manu being at a high level; if he stays there and Tim and Tony start performing against stiffer compe ion better the team will be fine. IMO the defense will sort itself out when everyone gets healthy again and March rolls around. I do wanna see the Spurs make a move for more athleticism/perimeter defense. Not sure what names are out there but Young/Ariza/Johnson are still my top choices.

  11. #11
    PRICELESS SPURS FAN polandprzem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Post Count
    16,253
    Good job


  12. #12
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Post Count
    51,854
    doesn't count in ORT or DRT
    Was off topic but though I'd bring it up.

  13. #13
    what uganda do about it? Joseph Kony's Avatar
    My Team
    Seattle Supersonics
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    7,039
    Does anyone have any stats on other teams shooting more than the Spurs? Like I sometimes it seems as if other teams are shooting at a fast rate compared to the Spurs, more shots equals more points. IDK, I don't even know what I'm talking about.
    Are you high?

  14. #14
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Post Count
    51,854
    Naw man, I trip when I smoke. I start thinking I'm having a heart attack and what not.

  15. #15
    what uganda do about it? Joseph Kony's Avatar
    My Team
    Seattle Supersonics
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    7,039
    Sucks dude, I hear that from people now and then and I just feel sorry for them. At least there's booze imo

  16. #16
    Believe (in Bertans) ABC's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Post Count
    390
    Thanks Bruno!

  17. #17
    Veteran Sean Cagney's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Post Count
    13,402
    I was excited about the team coming into the season, but it's definitely been tempered down lately. I know its early but the lack of success against the league's elite is worrying.
    You and OP hit it on the head, don't feel too good right now about this team so far this year because of just this! I am not saying I am not excited for the playoffs still but the next 41 games will tell alot in whether this team can still compete or they are just second round fodder.

  18. #18
    Veteran Sean Cagney's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Post Count
    13,402
    Naw man, I trip when I smoke. I start thinking I'm having a heart attack and what not.
    Smoking used to give me anxiety attacks as well, can relate fully.
    Sucks dude, I hear that from people now and then and I just feel sorry for them. At least there's booze imo
    Which is why I switched to booze years ago! I hate the hangovers though and so on, not the same as smoking then waking up feeling just a little tired but usually okay. Booze is good in moderation, get drunk here or there but most of the time just a buzz.

  19. #19
    Veteran Libri's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Post Count
    11,209
    defense is getting worse

  20. #20
    MORE LIFE SOON COME 313's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Post Count
    11,595
    Losing to the other top teams is only a concern when it happens in the playoffs.

  21. #21
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Post Count
    13,829
    It's been obvious for weeks that Diaw needs to start, but like I said weeks ago, they're clearly reticent to make the move because they don't have a backup PF in that scenario. Bonner would be the (internal) solution, but he's no longer a rotation player when they're fully healthy, so they'd be left with Ayres next to Splitter, which isn't happening.

    For once, the front office needs to not play it safe, which in this case would be hoping Duncan's jump shot returns. It's been half a season, his shot looks broken and he's clearly lacking confidence in it. If they do not make a move to rectify this, they're probably eliminated in the second round.

  22. #22
    Pop, the Mastermind superjames1992's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Post Count
    4,387
    Splitter's return will help the defense, IMO.

  23. #23
    Guest Personality Hoops Czar's Avatar
    My Team
    Cleveland Cavaliers
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Post Count
    8,541
    Another issue of these 20 last games is the 3 point defense. In that stretch, Spurs are the second worst team in that area at 38.9% 3P% allowed. They are still not a lot of 3's per game (7.1) but it isn't good.

    this says it all tbh, anything less is deeply connected to this, solve this and we have the best team in the league again.
    Sure, play Belinelli and Mills less. Thats not happening

  24. #24
    ಥ﹏ಥ DAF86's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Post Count
    44,754
    Spurs' true MVP:

    Spurs are 13-0 when Nando is playing.
    This calls for a PlayNando rebirth, imho.

  25. #25
    Veteran spurs10's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Post Count
    10,605
    Am I reading this correctly that we are 44 points worse defensively per 61 minutes when Beli is playing than when Green is playing? Obviously Beli has played more with the starters in the last 20 games when our defense has slipped considerably. Also, the Big 3 have been much worse defensively, stat wise, in the last 20 games.

    Also, it would appear we are much worse defensively when Tim Duncan is playing. Is this simply due to amount of minutes in the sample size? There is a 35 point differential in off. and def. when Tim isn't playing.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •