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  1. #2726
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    This is the #1 problem with people like Manny and Random. They flood this site with articles they claim disprove our points and ignore the central theme of the skepticism..
    ... and this is different than what you do how?

    You claim there is no evidence at all.

    Are you qualified to evaluate all the evidence?
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  2. #2727
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Give it up and explain to me, instead, why Al Gore -- arguably the Grand Poohbah of AGCC -- doesn't practice what he preaches.
    This is ad hominem.

    Fallacy: Ad Hominem Tu Quoque



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Also Known as: "You Too Fallacy"

    Description of Ad Hominem Tu Quoque
    This fallacy is committed when it is concluded that a person's claim is false because 1) it is inconsistent with something else a person has said or 2) what a person says is inconsistent with her actions. This type of "argument" has the following form:


    Person A makes claim X.
    Person B asserts that A's actions or past claims are inconsistent with the truth of claim X.
    Therefore X is false.

    The fact that a person makes inconsistent claims does not make any particular claim he makes false (although of any pair of inconsistent claims only one can be true - but both can be false). Also, the fact that a person's claims are not consistent with his actions might indicate that the person is a hypocrite but this does not prove his claims are false.


    You seem to have missed this the first couple of dozen times this has been pointed out to you. I hope this helps.

    I do not feel the need to explain Al Gore's actions.
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  3. #2728
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Pseudoscience is any belief system or methodology which tries to gain legitimacy by wearing the trappings of science, but fails to abide by the rigorous methodology and standards of evidence that demarcate true science. Pseudoscience is designed to have the appearance of being scientific, but lacks any of the substance of science.
    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Pseudoscience

    UPDATE:
    This exchange is, in my opinion, probably *the* most clear example of the kinds of arguments made against the actual science that supports the theory that mankind is affecting our overall climate. Thank you DarrinS

    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...&postcount=877



    From Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science by Martin Gardner
    1.The pseudo-scientist considers himself a genius.

    2.He regards other researchers as stupid, dishonest or both. By choice or necessity he operates outside the peer review system (hence the le of the original Antioch Review article, "The Hermit Scientist").

    3.He believes there is a campaign against his ideas, a campaign compared with the persecution of Galileo or Pasteur.

    4.Instead of side-stepping the mainstream, the pseudo-scientist attacks it head-on: The most revered scientist is Einstein so Gardner writes that Einstein is the most likely establishment figure to be attacked.

    5.He coins neologisms. ["new words", in this case meant to sound as scientific as possible-RG]
    In reading through numerous climate change threads, and websites, I have found many of the traits rampant within the Denier movement.

    While I would not lump all people who doubt the current scientific consensus regarding man's effect on our climate into this category, I can say what I see quoted often by people making the argument almost invariably fits rather well into this.

    Quite frankly the most damning thing in my mind is that Deniers tend to eschew the peer-review process entirely. Something shared in common with people putting forth theories about healing properties of some "energetically treated water" and so forth.

    I will in this thread attempt to delve into the pseudo-science underpinning the Denier movement. I am sure it will attract the usual suspects with the usual arguments, but since I am here to make MY case regarding this, I will first do that over the next week or two, and then get around to responding to posted material.

    What I will do to support my case is twofold. I will first answer questions honestly, to the best of my abilities, and in good faith. I expect the same in return.

    Dogmatics tend to be unable to answer honest, fair questions plainly. This is one of *THE* hallmarks of pseudoscience. At the end of this post, I will keep a scoreboard of the number of times I ask honest, direct questions that are not answered by anybody who wants to pick up the gauntlet. I will source this scoreboard for reference in the second follow-up post.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    #Questions asked without direct intellectually honest answers:

    Yonivore:
    One question asked. Completely ignored.
    One logical fallacy.

    Obstructed view:
    Five questions asked.
    Two questions dodged without honest answers.
    Two questions answered fairly.
    One ignored.

    DarrinS:
    twelve logical fallacies
    One false assertion
    One question pending, probable second false assertion
    Cherry-picking data

    Wild Cobra:
    Five logical fallacies
    Four unproven assertions
    Putting forth a scientific sounding but untestable hypothesis
    Three instances of confirmation bias
    First direct comparison of climate scientists to Nazis in the thread

    Tyson Chandler:
    One logical fallacy
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  4. #2729
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I'm glad RG has his go-to site for "climate denial debunking".

    Lol skepticalscience.com

    "Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that refutes global warming."


    As far as I can tell, the dude who runs skepticalscience doesn't see any "healthy skepticism" in any of the non-alarmist viewpoints.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

    Would you call simply waving off methodology that you don't like as "questionable", yet failing to explain why you think it is, and support that explaination with any reasonable argument or data to be "healthy skepticism"?

    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...postcount=2724
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  5. #2730
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Mouse: [statement A]

    RG: Here is why that statement is factually wrong or logically flawed. [scientific evidence][logical principles]

    Mouse: "nuh-uh" [logically flawed statement about scientific evidence]

    RG: That denial was logically flawed, your [statement A] has been debunked.

    Mouse: "oh yeah, well..." [Statement B]

    RG: Here is why that statement is factually wrong or logically flawed. [scientific evidence][logical principles]

    Mouse: [misstatement of scientific theory] [flawed conclusion based on misstatement]

    RG: That was a provable misstatement of scientific theory. [logical principles]

    Mouse: "nuh-uh" [repeats misstatement]

    RG: That is a misstatement of scientific theory.

    Mouse: [logically flawed argument about scientific theory]

    RG: That isn't right because [logical principles]

    GOTO 10
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  6. #2731
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    This is the #1 problem with people like Manny and Random. They flood this site with articles they claim disprove our points and ignore the central theme of the skepticism.

    First of all, none of us has the time to investigate the efficacy, accuracy, or credibility of the data or claims made by either side. You say they discredit my article, I say my article discredits yours...we've done this for over a decade now.
    I not only have time, I'm conducting research in the area. Just because you're ignorant of the subject doesn't mean everyone is. And if you don't have time to read up on it, then perhaps you shouldn't make stupid statements such as we have zero proof on the subject.

    One on hand, you admit to your ignorance while still maintaining you know that AGW theory is wrong.

    You made my point for me. Thanks.



    So, I'll say it one more time. All the PRINCIPAL proponents of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change that dominate the places we typically consume our information -- Al Gore, the UN, its IPCC, prominent political appointees of the alphabet soup of federal agencies, prominent academics -- have all been busted in either significant errors, mischaracterizations of data, or out-and-out fabrications. Almost to a one, they've refused any open debate on the topic and have insisted the "science is settled."


    Models, from years ago, that predicted events that were supposed to have already come to pass --- have been wrong.

    And, to add insult to injury, damn near every one of the enviro-celebrities and high-minded organizations produce individual sasquatch-sized carbon footprints while they tell me to squeeze my ass into a Prius and quit exhaling so much.

    My God, have you seen the spectacles of excess they create in places like Copenhagen and South Africa when they get together to proclaim the imminent doom of our planet if we don't enact draconian measures to reverse our CO2 emissions? Individual jets. Individual limos. It's a farce. Have they never heard of "Go to Meeting" for God's sake?

    They're you're problem Manny, not the skeptics. We're just taking our cues from those who get to pick which scientists are on message and which ones are heretics.

    I'll start believing there is an anthropogenic global climate change problem when those telling me there is an anthropogenic global climate change problem start acting like there's an anthropogenic global climate change problem.

    If your tens of thousands of scientists cannot convince those in our leadership, that deliver the message to the laymen among us, AGCC is a real problem, why should I believe it? Particularly when it is clear those people only carry the bucket because it enriches them.

    It's really that simply. You're not going to get me with graphs and the odd scientific paper that you've cherry picked to prove your case. We know those can be manipulated -- by anyone. It's been done and they've been caught doing it and I don't have the expertise to know if the one you post and link here is real or fabricated or just simply wrong.

    Give it up and explain to me, instead, why Al Gore -- arguably the Grand Poohbah of AGCC -- doesn't practice what he preaches. Why were the IPCC scientists "hiding the decline?"

    And, another thing, what about China? How much good are we doing if we significantly re our economy through enacting the measures being suggested if China and a few other mega-emitters do nothing?

    Seriously, quit with the papers -- they prove nothing in a forum about politics occupied by a bunch of non-scientists that are witnessing the hypocrisy of the celebrities that push your side of the argument. Explain that instead.
    Actually, there are a good deal of scientists in here. The fact that your'e too stupid to understand the papers isn't my problem. The fact that you've made the statements in this post has made my day.

    You're not my target audience, Yoni.
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  7. #2732
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    They're you're problem Manny, not the skeptics. We're just taking our cues from those who get to pick which scientists are on message and which ones are heretics.
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  8. #2733
    Just Right of Atilla the Hun Yonivore's Avatar
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    You're not my target audience, Yoni.
    Perhaps if y'all pushed Al Gore, the UN, the IPCC, that Hansen dude, and the rest of the AGCC pimps off the stage and started putting us some real knowledge, you'd have more credibility.

    They're not helping your cause. At all.

    I don't believe AGCC is a problem not because I don't understand the science but, because people who claim to understand the science -- and agree with you -- don't act like AGCC is a problem. And, I believe there exists reasonable scientists that disagree with you on AGCC.

    I think I posted this a while back, I don't remember. In any case, it's the type of stuff you scientists need to address if you have any hope of persuading people like me of your position.

    The compelling case against Ed Davey

    As the Global Warming Policy Foundation reports a new book, Die Kalte Sonne, written by Prof Dr Fritz Vahrenholt and geologist/paleontologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning, has caused a sensation even in advance of its official publication yesterday. For Prof. Vahrenholt, a renewable energy expert, was one of the fathers of the modern German green movement and believed everything preached by the IPCC. But according to Focus magazine, he is now a far sadder and wiser man:

    ‘Doubt came two years ago when he was an expert reviewer of an IPCC report on renewable energy. “I discovered numerous errors and asked myself if the other IPCC reports on climate were similarly sloppy.”

    ‘In his book he explains how he dug into the IPCC climate report and was horrified by what he had found. Then add the 10 years of stagnant temperatures, failed predictions, Climategate e-mails, and discussions he had with dozens of other skeptical elite scientists. That was more than enough. FOCUS quotes: “I couldn’t take it any more. I had to write this book.”’
    Now he discovers this inconvenient truth? What took him so long?
    Given what just this one scientists says, and he's not the only skeptic scientist, but -- he used to believe as you do -- there's no reason for me to give any consideration to any scientific paper you link here. You're right, I simply don't have the requisite scientific background to judge its accuracy or credibility. Nor do I have the time to compare the contents of what you post against the contents of the scientific articles posted in opposition.

    Why don't you start a SpursTalk science forum. I promise I won't participate. This is a political forum and I'm talking about the political issues related to AGCC.
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  9. #2734
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Why start a new forum when this one works just fine? I enjoy your participation. It helps hammer home the intent of RG's thread better than anything we could every say would.
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  10. #2735
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    "This is a political forum"

    right-wingers have politicized science.
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  11. #2736
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Remember this
    If there is NO evidence, then ALL climate scientists who claim AGW are lying.

    Are they all lying Darrin?

    I don't think I've ever stated there is NO evidence.


    My main issues are (1) how much is caused by CO2 vs. natural (2) what is the climate sensitivity, and (3) what are the nature of feedbacks?

    I don't think any of those are known with great certainty.
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  12. #2737
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    1 is known pretty well but I will grant you 3 is the biggest uncertainty regarding future climate simulations and thus makes 2 into a wider range than it would otherwise be.
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  13. #2738
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I don't believe AGCC is a problem not because I don't understand the science but, because people who claim to understand the science -- and agree with you -- don't act like AGCC is a problem.


    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...postcount=2730


    Rejected and clearly shown as a logically flawed argument.

    This has been pointed out to you on several occasions.

    Do you not understand how this is illogical?
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  14. #2739
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Again, what is the optimal climate and temperature for Earth?
    There is none.

    The question is an implied strawman, because no scientists talking about the dangers of AGW claim there is.

    Do you understand what a strawman logical fallacy is?
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  15. #2740
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    [skepticalscience.com] seems to share my opinion of most self-professed skeptics. The OP and its carefully logged list of your logically flawed arguments says all I need to about that.

    Remember this
    If there is NO evidence, then ALL climate scientists who claim AGW are lying.

    Sorry, there's no proof, none, zilch, zero, that humankind is having any appreciable affect on global climate.
    Are they all lying Darrin?

    Does this seem like a dogmatic statement to you?

    If you want to claim there is NO evidence, you have a HUGE burden of proof, given the number of scientists who stake their reputations on the evidence that they feel does support AGW.
    I don't think I've ever stated there is NO evidence.


    My main issues are (1) how much is caused by CO2 vs. natural (2) what is the climate sensitivity, and (3) what are the nature of feedbacks?

    I don't think any of those are known with great certainty.
    That isn't what I asked.

    I asked you if Yonivore's statement seemed dogmatic to you.

    The follow up question is based, logically on the assumption that Yoni's statement is correct and the fact there are a lot of scientists willing to say there is evidence.

    Are you going to answer either question? Both are fair commentary on a pretty dramatic claim.
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  16. #2741
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Cognitive dissonance results from holding conflicting ideas simultaneously.

    The thought "I believe things based on sound logic" is incompatible with being shown how your reasoning is illogical.

    Smoking is a common example of cognitive dissonance because it is widely accepted that cigarettes can cause lung cancer, and smokers must reconcile their habit with the desire to live long and healthy lives. In terms of the theory, the desire to live a long life is dissonant with the activity of doing something that will most likely shorten one's life. The tension produced by these contradictory ideas can be reduced by any number of changes in cognitions and behaviors, including quitting smoking, denying the evidence linking smoking to lung cancer, or justifying one's smoking.[8] For example, smokers could rationalize their behavior by concluding that only a few smokers become ill, that it only happens to very heavy smokers, or that if smoking does not kill them, something else will.[9]
    Yeah, I went there.
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  17. #2742
    Just Right of Atilla the Hun Yonivore's Avatar
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    Cognitive dissonance results from holding conflicting ideas simultaneously.
    So, if I've got this right, you're suggesting Al Gore, et. al. are suffering from congnitive dissonance to the extent they preach at the alter of AGCC while ignoring their own alarmist rhetoric in their personal behaviors?

    Can you please provide the name of a globally recognized AGCC proponent that doesn't suffer from this "cognitive dissonance."
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  18. #2743
    Just Right of Atilla the Hun Yonivore's Avatar
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    That isn't what I asked.

    I asked you if Yonivore's statement seemed dogmatic to you.
    I would say my statement is dogmatic.

    But it's a result of a failure of the AGCC community to make a convincing argument on the global political stage where public policy is made.

    Your AGCC evangelists are failing to convince the world that AGCC is a problem.

    That's your problem.
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  19. #2744
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Perhaps if y'all pushed Al Gore, the UN, the IPCC, that Hansen dude, and the rest of the AGCC pimps off the stage and started putting us some real knowledge, you'd have more credibility.

    They're not helping your cause. At all.

    I don't believe AGCC is a problem not because I don't understand the science but, because people who claim to understand the science -- and agree with you -- don't act like AGCC is a problem. And, I believe there exists reasonable scientists that disagree with you on AGCC.

    I think I posted this a while back, I don't remember. In any case, it's the type of stuff you scientists need to address if you have any hope of persuading people like me of your position.

    The compelling case against Ed Davey


    Given what just this one scientists says, and he's not the only skeptic scientist, but -- he used to believe as you do -- there's no reason for me to give any consideration to any scientific paper you link here. You're right, I simply don't have the requisite scientific background to judge its accuracy or credibility. Nor do I have the time to compare the contents of what you post against the contents of the scientific articles posted in opposition.

    Why don't you start a SpursTalk science forum. I promise I won't participate. This is a political forum and I'm talking about the political issues related to AGCC.
    You really do not understand what ad hominem is do you?

    You are being like WC now, just blithely repeating the same tired . You cannot argue the point. You admit you don't really udnerstand the science so you attack the source.

    You notice when RG rebutted Horner, he went to the methodology and the data? All you do is character assassination. Its pretty lame but considering you like partisan politics it doesn't surprise me.
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  20. #2745
    Just Right of Atilla the Hun Yonivore's Avatar
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    You really do not understand what ad hominem is do you?

    You are being like WC now, just blithely repeating the same tired . You cannot argue the point. You admit you don't really udnerstand the science so you attack the source.

    You notice when RG rebutted Horner, he went to the methodology and the data? All you do is character assassination. Its pretty lame but considering you like partisan politics it doesn't surprise me.
    I'll admit to getting mired in the dueling scientists nonsense without a full understanding of the science but, and that's my fault for falling for the trap.

    But, you should admit the major players in the global drive to convince me AGCC is real and is bringing catastrophic change to a neighborhood near me have, over the years, been wrong, lied, mischaracterized, and have done other things that have tended to drive nails in the coffins of their credibility on the issue.

    As I suggested, perhaps AGCC scientists -- all tens of thousands of them -- should pick a leader and have him, or her, be the standard bearer of their scientific message. Because the clowns now preaching from the AGCC alter are buffoons.

    And, that goes back to my original premise, from which I keep getting distracted, that the PRINCIPAL players who have taken up the charge that AGCC is going to be a catastrophe for mankind have yet to modify their own behaviors in a way that would support that charge.

    I can see how cigarette smoke kills people.

    So far, I don't see how AGCC is affecting anything negatively.

    We are told polar bears are declining because of AGCC. They're not.

    We are told penguins are declining because of AGCC. They're not.

    We are told the snows of Kilimanjaro will forever disappear from that majestic peak because of AGCC. Then we learn the phenomenon is local and not due to global anything.

    It goes on and on and on.

    Forget cognitive dissonance, name somebody in the public sphere, asking me to accept draconian limits on our productivity that actually lives their life like any of this is a big problem.

    Because, to many of us, it just appears to be a scam to enrich the likes of Al Gore, and others either through the farcical carbon credit crap or the folly of dumping billions upon billions into green energy nonsense.
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  21. #2746
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    They're you're problem Manny, not the skeptics. We're just taking our cues from those who get to pick which scientists are on message and which ones are heretics.
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  22. #2747
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    You still do not understand what ad hominem means.

    AGCC this

    AGCC that

    AGCC this

    AGCC that

    AGCC said things that were untrue so because they said this, this is also untrue.

    its actually funny, everything youc laimed was false came from WIWT, the guardian etc from a cursory google search. Most of the scientific papers I look at do not make it as cut and dry. But THEY ARE ALL LIARS!!! Is more compelling I guess.

    You aren't arguing the point you are arguing AGCC. Fine you don't trust them, can we move on now?
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  23. #2748
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    I wonder how the changing eccentricity, obliquity, and precession change the reading taken?

    For sea level changes, are the scientists only using data from the high tide, or the actual average? Are that taking them at enough time intervals to account for these changing tidal variations?
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  24. #2749
    Just Right of Atilla the Hun Yonivore's Avatar
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    You still do not understand what ad hominem means.

    AGCC this

    AGCC that

    AGCC this

    AGCC that

    AGCC said things that were untrue so because they said this, this is also untrue.

    its actually funny, everything youc laimed was false came from WIWT, the guardian etc from a cursory google search. Most of the scientific papers I look at do not make it as cut and dry. But THEY ARE ALL LIARS!!! Is more compelling I guess.
    I understand ad hominem fine. You're missing my point.

    If most of the scientific papers you read don't make it as cut and dry, where are the AGCC proponents presenting their information to the world?

    You aren't arguing the point you are arguing AGCC. Fine you don't trust them, can we move on now?
    Who do I trust? You? Manny?

    And, while I admit I get into the trap of arguing AGCC, my primary point is there isn't any cohesive message from a reliable source being presented to the public. So far, they've all been compromised by errors, corruption, misrepresentation, and mischaracterizations.

    Which of the tens of thousands of scientists should I trust and why?
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  25. #2750
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    I understand ad hominem fine. You're missing my point.

    If most of the scientific papers you read don't make it as cut and dry, where are the AGCC proponents presenting their information to the world?


    Who do I trust? You? Manny?

    And, while I admit I get into the trap of arguing AGCC, my primary point is there isn't any cohesive message from a reliable source being presented to the public. So far, they've all been compromised by errors, corruption, misrepresentation, and mischaracterizations.

    Which of the tens of thousands of scientists should I trust and why?
    Obviously you trust the Guardian, WIWT, the Heritage Foundation and the energy lobby. You just take a partisan position and stick to it.

    And apparently you do not understand AH 'just fine.' You're still dry humping its leg. Let it go.
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