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  1. #2401
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Bypassing Think Progress and straight to the data:

    http://towleroad.typepad.com/files/apr12asrfeature.pdf

    From the Abstract:

    Results show that group differences in trust in science are largely stable over the period, except for respondents identifying as conservative. Conservatives began the period with the highest trust in science, relative to liberals and moderates, and ended the period with the lowest.
    To summarize the main empirical findings,
    this study shows that public trust in science has
    not declined since the 1970s except among
    conservatives and those who frequently attend
    church.
    Reference: Every thread about evolution that has ever taken place on this message board.
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  2. #2402
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    When has it been in equilibrium in the past 4½ billion years?

    Sincerely,

    Earth
    Long term there is no such thing. No scientist would ever claim otherwise.

    Short term, in the span of 50-200, is a lot easier to get to estimate rough equilibriums.

    Sorry Cosmored, saying it repeatedly doesn't make the bad arguments any better.
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  3. #2403
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    "Its a good thing AGW theory doesn't seek to deny or change those two facts."

    Isn't the very name, Anthropological Global Warming, sorta at odds with that statement, Manny?
    Not at all. Coming out of the last glacial max (LGM) we have historically been warming for quite some time now. We would have continued to warm had there been a human on earth or not. AGW theory does not ever say that the only cause of warming is GHG emissions and other human factors.

    What the science does say is that we're now going to see far more warming than we would have otherwise and the current natural warming will be amplified.

    As for the carbon, it does not take much of a surplus (or deficit) for a system to be thrown wildly out of balance. If you take a financial budget - as an example - for an organization that does trillions of dollars in transactions on a yearly basis that is perfectly balanced, and add a surplus that is a small fraction of the entire budget then you will see that organizations bank account grow each year.

    The earth's carbon cycle is the same. There is an incredible amount of carbon being moved through the entire system but prior to the industrial revolution this system was in balance. The amount of carbon we've been putting in - although small in comparison to the entire carbon cycle - is a surplus and as such remains in the atmosphere.
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  4. #2404
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    When has it been in equilibrium in the past 4½ billion years?

    Sincerely,

    Earth
    Quite often. More often than not, in fact.
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  5. #2405
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Short term, in the span of 50-200, is a lot easier to get to estimate rough equilibriums.

    http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.co...n-disturbance/
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  6. #2406
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    The dangers of googling your way through a debate instead of actually understanding what you're saying is that the pages you go to often have views at odds with other things you say.

    IE

    The human disturbance, which is significant, as we summarized in our article
    From your most recent post.


    In any event, abrupt changes happen throughout the climate history. Why? Because a system that may or may have not been in equilibrium was changed in some form and it seeks out new balance.

    The Earth's climate of the past 1 million years - where we go through cycles of glaciation and interracials - is one of equilibrium. You see changes but the system is (was) in balance.
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  7. #2407
    I play pretty, no? TeyshaBlue's Avatar
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    Not really.

    If one has a system that is in rough equilibrium, such as say, a balanced scale, and introduce something that unbalances the equilibrium then you can say that change, even if relatively small, was responsible for unbalancing it.

    If I have a scale with 100 tons on each side, and it is balanced, if I add a pound to one side, even though that one pound is miniscule compared to the overall weights involved, that one pound will tip the scale.

    One thing to keep in the back of ones mind is that we are adding more CO2 to our overall emissions, and the total per year emissions are growing exponentially.

    Compounding this is the potential for self-reinforcing feedback loops, and other unforeseen consequences.

    I for one, am very leary about flipping switches and turning knobs in complex systems, when we are only beginning to understand what those switches and knobs do.

    It seems more than a little reckless.
    That squares. Thx dude.
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  8. #2408
    I play pretty, no? TeyshaBlue's Avatar
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    Not at all. Coming out of the last glacial max (LGM) we have historically been warming for quite some time now. We would have continued to warm had there been a human on earth or not. AGW theory does not ever say that the only cause of warming is GHG emissions and other human factors.

    What the science does say is that we're now going to see far more warming than we would have otherwise and the current natural warming will be amplified.

    As for the carbon, it does not take much of a surplus (or deficit) for a system to be thrown wildly out of balance. If you take a financial budget - as an example - for an organization that does trillions of dollars in transactions on a yearly basis that is perfectly balanced, and add a surplus that is a small fraction of the entire budget then you will see that organizations bank account grow each year.

    The earth's carbon cycle is the same. There is an incredible amount of carbon being moved through the entire system but prior to the industrial revolution this system was in balance. The amount of carbon we've been putting in - although small in comparison to the entire carbon cycle - is a surplus and as such remains in the atmosphere.
    Got it....thanks Manny. Between you and RG, I have a better understanding of the context behind the name.
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  9. #2409
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    The Earth's climate of the past 1 million years - where we go through cycles of glaciation and interracials - is one of equilibrium. You see changes but the system is (was) in balance.

    Ice ages and interglacials, all without Cadillac Escalades.
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  10. #2410
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Got it....thanks Manny. Between you and RG, I have a better understanding of the context behind the name.
    Glad to help.
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  11. #2411
    Corpus Christi Spurs Fan Phenomanul's Avatar
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    Not at all. Coming out of the last glacial max (LGM) we have historically been warming for quite some time now. We would have continued to warm had there been a human on earth or not. AGW theory does not ever say that the only cause of warming is GHG emissions and other human factors.

    What the science does say is that we're now going to see far more warming than we would have otherwise and the current natural warming will be amplified.

    As for the carbon, it does not take much of a surplus (or deficit) for a system to be thrown wildly out of balance. If you take a financial budget - as an example - for an organization that does trillions of dollars in transactions on a yearly basis that is perfectly balanced, and add a surplus that is a small fraction of the entire budget then you will see that organizations bank account grow each year.

    The earth's carbon cycle is the same. There is an incredible amount of carbon being moved through the entire system but prior to the industrial revolution this system was in balance. The amount of carbon we've been putting in - although small in comparison to the entire carbon cycle - is a surplus and as such remains in the atmosphere.
    How much of a fraction are we talking about...? Has anyone published such figures? [honest question]

    Of that portion [if known, or estimated], ranging over the past 500 years or so, how much of a CO2 inbalance has been introduced into the system simply on account of the population differences between that era and the present time...??? When Earth's population booned from several hundred million peeps to about 6.5 billion...??? Obviously, I understand that there is probably a 3 order magnitude difference [at least] between the CO2 output of a car and that of the average human being... [curious... again just another honest question] I wonder if the "Earth is crowed beyond sustainability" crowd is on to something...

    Lastly, how much CO2 do our corporal bodies trap and bind (as organic carbons) when we die and are subsequently buried...? I figure most of it is released slowly by scavengers / bacteria / exposure to the elements... unless the bodies are burned / cremated and all the CO2 is released instantly... But over the millenia, I would suspect that the total amount of dead humans have managed to trap some miniscule, nanotrace percentage of the total CO2 theoretically available in the pie, no? [again, curious]
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  12. #2412
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Ice ages and interglacials, all without Cadillac Escalades.
    If you think that one is good wait until I tell you about the guy with an engineering degree and a job all without logic.
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  13. #2413
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Ice ages and interglacials, all without Cadillac Escalades.
    Well, you further prove that you only pay lip service to appreciating what BEST does. You don't know about signal analysis so i will dumb it down so its easy to understand what they are claiming.

    You once again prove to be a dissembling, deceptive piece of but I digress.



    A sine function is a simple periodic function that oscillates between two poles. When it goes through the first 90 degrees of arch it increases but the differential goes to zero. At 90 degrees there should be no change as the rate of change zeroes out. As it moves through the 90 to 180 degrees of arc the value decreases. If you are in this portion of the graph you expect the value to diminish.

    If instead it increases or stays the same what does that say about forces outside of the natural cycle? Are there none, are they negative or do they drive upwards?



    Here is the now famous ice core temperature graphs. If this is analogous to a sin graph where would you say in the degrees of arc that we are at now?

    You know the answer because the above is a dumbed down version of what BEST did. You either know this because you read it and are lying because you are a dissembling, deceptive piece of , did not read it and are the same thing or you are too stupid to understand what they are getting at and lied about it anyway which still makes you the same thing.
    Last edited by FuzzyLumpkins; 04-10-2012 at 06:51 PM.
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  14. #2414
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    How much of a fraction are we talking about...? Has anyone published such figures? [honest question]

    Of that portion [if known, or estimated], ranging over the past 500 years or so, how much of a CO2 inbalance has been introduced into the system simply on account of the population differences between that era and the present time...??? When Earth's population booned from several hundred million peeps to about 6.5 billion...??? Obviously, I understand that there is probably a 3 order magnitude difference [at least] between the CO2 output of a car and that of the average human being... [curious... again just another honest question] I wonder if the "Earth is crowed beyond sustainability" crowd is on to something...

    Lastly, how much CO2 do our corporal bodies trap and bind (as organic carbons) when we die and are subsequently buried...? I figure most of it is released slowly by scavengers / bacteria / exposure to the elements... unless the bodies are burned / cremated and all the CO2 is released instantly... But over the millenia, I would suspect that the total amount of dead humans have managed to trap some miniscule, nanotrace percentage of the total CO2 theoretically available in the pie, no? [again, curious]
    I don't have them with me but I can provide you with links to papers talking about human interaction with the carbon cycle. It (our CO2 influx) does not follow human population growth as you would expect much greater growth in the 20th century if it did.

    As for the 2nd half of your post, I've never thought about it in those terms, but I would imagine that humans make up such a tiny percentage of the biomass on earth that I do not believe the carbon trapped in our bodies to be ultimately significant.
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  15. #2415
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    In the meantime, this link will probably provide you with the information you seek:

    http://skepticalscience.com/human-co...-emissions.htm
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  16. #2416
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    How much of a fraction are we talking about...? Has anyone published such figures? [honest question]

    Of that portion [if known, or estimated], ranging over the past 500 years or so, how much of a CO2 inbalance has been introduced into the system simply on account of the population differences between that era and the present time...??? When Earth's population booned from several hundred million peeps to about 6.5 billion...??? Obviously, I understand that there is probably a 3 order magnitude difference [at least] between the CO2 output of a car and that of the average human being... [curious... again just another honest question] I wonder if the "Earth is crowed beyond sustainability" crowd is on to something...

    Lastly, how much CO2 do our corporal bodies trap and bind (as organic carbons) when we die and are subsequently buried...? I figure most of it is released slowly by scavengers / bacteria / exposure to the elements... unless the bodies are burned / cremated and all the CO2 is released instantly... But over the millenia, I would suspect that the total amount of dead humans have managed to trap some miniscule, nanotrace percentage of the total CO2 theoretically available in the pie, no? [again, curious]
    Bear in mind that the majority of all humans who have ever existed are alive today, right now.

    (as an aside that is what makes things like reincarnation, where everybody is supposed to have multiple past lives, mathmatically impossible)

    The amount of carbon in phyical bodies pales in comparison to the amount that has to be released by burning fossil fuels to keep carbon in that human form.

    It takes a lot of energy to sustain your average Westerner.
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  17. #2417
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Bear in mind that the majority of all humans who have ever existed are alive today, right now.

    (as an aside that is what makes things like reincarnation, where everybody is supposed to have multiple past lives, mathmatically impossible)

    The amount of carbon in phyical bodies pales in comparison to the amount that has to be released by burning fossil fuels to keep carbon in that human form.

    It takes a lot of energy to sustain your average Westerner.
    You could argue that animals have souls and all the ones we are killing off are now manifesting as human.
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  18. #2418
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I don't have them with me but I can provide you with links to papers talking about human interaction with the carbon cycle. It (our CO2 influx) does not follow human population growth as you would expect much greater growth in the 20th century if it did.

    As for the 2nd half of your post, I've never thought about it in those terms, but I would imagine that humans make up such a tiny percentage of the biomass on earth that I do not believe the carbon trapped in our bodies to be ultimately significant.
    Heh, if you want to be really technical, there are more bacterial cells in and around our bodies than actual human cells that comprise our bodies, by a factor of ten. The amount of genetic material those bacteria represent is actually a hundred times greater than our own.

    (loooves me those TED talks)
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  19. #2419
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    You could argue that animals have souls and all the ones we are killing off are now manifesting as human.
    You could argue that, I guess.

    If, of course, you can prove souls exist in the first place. Haven't seen one yet.
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  20. #2420
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Bear in mind that the majority of all humans who have ever existed are alive today, right now.
    .
    This is not even close to being true. If that makes me a "piece of " (as Fuzzy likes to say), then so be it.
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  21. #2421
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    This is not even close to being true. If that makes me a "piece of " (as Fuzzy likes to say), then so be it.
    I never just call you a piece of . i call you a dissembling, deceptive piece of . Now you are dissembling. Your previous point has been trashed and exposed you once again so i suppose its red herring time.
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  22. #2422
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    I never just call you a piece of . i call you a dissembling, deceptive piece of . Now you are dissembling. Your previous point has been trashed and exposed you once again so i suppose its red herring time.

    So you think that the majority of all humans who have ever existed are alive today, right now?
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  23. #2423
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    As for your petty insults, it says more about you than me. At least Whinehole does it with style.
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  24. #2424
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    So you think that the majority of all humans who have ever existed are alive today, right now?
    I'm not taking the red herring, head.
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  25. #2425
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    I'm not taking the red herring, head.
    Charming. I can see why you're so persuasive.
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