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RP predicted the real estate collapse in 2001 and predicted an expensive, uncons utional war in Iraq in 1998... try again...
I don't think "CPI" means what he thinks it means.Therefore, I am confident in predicting the following sequence of events:
• By March of 2011, once higher commodity prices reach the marketplace, monthly CPI will be at an annualized rate of not less than 5%.
• By July of 2011, annualized CPI will be no less than 8% annualized.
• By October of 2011, annualized CPI will have crossed 10%.
• By March of 2012, annualized CPI will cross the hyperinflationary tipping point of 15%.
After that, CPI will rapidly increase, much like it did in 1980.
What the mainstream commentariat will make of all this will be really something: When CPI reaches 5% by the winter of 2011, pundits and economists and the Fed and the Obama administration will all say the same thing: “Happy days are here again! People are spending! The economy is back on track!”
However, by the late spring, early summer of 2011, people will realize what’s going on—and the Federal Reserve will initially be unwilling to drastically raise interest rates so as to quell inflation.
Actually, the Fed won’t be able to raise rates, at least not like Volcker did back in 1980: The U.S. economy will be too weak, and the Federal government’s balance sheet will be too distressed, with it’s $1.5 trillion deficit. So at first, the Fed will have to let the rising inflation rate slide, and keep trying hard to explain it away as “a sign of a recovering economy”.
Once the Fed realizes that the rising CPI is not a sign of a reignited economy, but rather a sign of the collapsing dollar, they will pursue a puerile “inflation fighting” scheme of incremental interest rate hikes—much like G. William Miller, the Chairman of the Fed from January of ‘78 to August of ‘79, pursued so unsuccessfully.
2012 will be the bad year: I predict that hyperinflation’s tipping point will be no later than the first quarter of 2012. From there, it will accelerate. By the end of 2012, I would not be surprised if the CPI for the year averaged 30%.
RP predicted the real estate collapse in 2001 and predicted an expensive, uncons utional war in Iraq in 1998... try again...
Ron Paul predicted those things successfully. How does this affect the inherent truth of his other predictions?
RP predicted the real estate collapse in 2001 and predicted an expensive, uncons utional war in Iraq in 1998... try again...
Although the OP's timing was obviously off, does anyone really think that inflation is not inevitable? I'm certainly betting my financial life on it and investing in hard assets. I just did a cash out refi on the house I live in and just put in a bid on a house I plan to buy for a rent house with 3.5% down and interest of 3.5%. With interest rates this low I ain't skeered of debt.
"does anyone really think that inflation is not inevitable"
The Fed has no traction with interest at effectively 0%, but excessive inflation (greater than full-employment inflation of about 5%) arrives, the Fed can Volcker it.
and inflation can be either demand-pull or cost-push. Which one specifically are you afraid of as you campaign to shred the safet net and push USA into deeper recession? (which won't affect you, of course)
Since you obviously don't interface with the real world except through cyber ranting, let me break it to you...unlike the artificially manipulated interest rates, hard commodities are rapidly increasing in cost. , even scap is bringing stupid money. I redid some fencing at the ranch recently and needed to get rid of the old wire...i bundled it all up with the skid loader and dropped it on my trailer and took it by the salvage yard just to get rid of it and not have old rusty barbed wire on the ranch...thats about the lowest grade of scrap you can have and damned if they didn't give me almost 90 dollars for a little over 1000# of rusted barbed wire.
And yeah Boutons...I don't give a about you or your ing single wide with all the cat piss and everywhere...safet (sic) net my ass.
"hard commodities are rapidly increasing in cost"
so what does your ing barbed wire have to do with Fed policies of printing money? nothing.
and much of the commodity inflation is due to traders, not real demand.
There are a lot of people in this world outside of your trailer park Boutons. A lot of them even speak funny languages.
Inflation is not necessarily hyper.
Inflation is inevitable.
"hyper-inflation"... not so much.
You better hope that India/China/Africa keep growing, otherwise our demographics don't bode well for the demand side of the equation.
Kinda hard to have overall inflation with a shrinking, aging country. Ask the Japanese about that.
"overall inflation with a shrinking, aging country."
the commodity traders will all cost-push inflation, even if the demand isn't there.
Fully agree with your scenario of hype inflation. But I'm a bit uneasy about brining on rental property. If we have hyper inflation, then I think we also have sky high unemployment which means it might be hard to rent property, with the exception of it being Section 8. This is not the 1970's with 19% inflation and high employment.
Plus with hyper inflation and high unemployment I don't see real estate appreciation. Not to mention a plumber wanting to charge you $1500-$2000 to replace a water heater.
You usually aren't that far off. Are you losing it?
Inflation if rarely hyperinflation!
they all buy oil, coal, food commodities on the trader-rigged world market.
The hyperinflation boogeyman scaremongering started by in 2008 by the Repugs wanting to kill any federal stimulus to keep the economy ty until Nov 2012, just like Doomsday prophets.
4 years later, Doomsday ain't here, so the inflation Doomsday soothsayer they keep lying and pushing the date back.
They were wrong then, were laughably wrong about defeating Barry, and are wrong on hyperinflation, and damn near everything, including the need for a debt ceiling and avoiding the silly fiscal cliff boogeyman. But Repugs keep repeating the same old LIES non-stop so that right-wing assholes in this forum and everywhere keep believing those LIES.
Last edited by boutons_deux; 11-13-2012 at 10:10 AM.
Interest rates are low in the US and UK because they are monetizing their debt. Don't confuse that with deflation. Inflation still exists. It's all about perception. Even stupid people like Boutox will eventually realize that the s game of monetizing our debt can't last forever.
"Inflation still exists"
duh, inflation ALWAYS exists, CosmicCow er
Yes, actually, it can.
Losing what?
Tell me how my statement is wrong.
Sure inflation still exists.
I just don't see hyperinflation happening.
The people that are pushing that particular fear boogeyman appear to have a pretty marked financial interest in getting as many people believing it as possible. That should be setting off alarm bells.
Three years later... still no hyperinflation...
hyperinflation FUD and scaremongering were the Repug strategy to kill/reduce Obama's stimulus.
It worked, the stimulus was too small for the retraction in commercial/private spending, so here we are, thanks to Repugs, stuck in the Banksters Great (Jobs) Depression 5 years later, with absolutely no discussion of jobs or stimulus.
Repugs up America non-stop.
If anything there has been price deflation...hard to have inflation when real wages keep going down...Three years later... still no hyperinflation...
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