Nellie Ball Redux: Why Popovich Fails to Play Splitter

[mystargtr34]

Plus... we all know those numbers go out the window come playoff time. Bonner turns into a different basketball player.. so what he does in the regular season really doesnt matter.

[therealtruth]

He's been great IMO. He has started to use his physicality and size well lately (unlike at the start of the season when he was chucking those horrible hooks from the hip), and even if he doesn't quite finish every play, he's been drawing fouls...

That's the benefit of starting Splitter. He puts pressure on the opposing frontcourt to play defense without fouling. Imagine all those bunnies Blair misses from Manu's passes ending up in fouls and/or won with Splitter. He's also going to have a height advantage if teams put their center on Duncan.

[Obstructed_View]

Bonner would had +/- of -14, instead of Splitter, if that were the case. During the 12-0 run starting the third quarter, Arthur made no points. Splitter was replaced by Dice after 8 Grizzlies points + 1 ft they made too. The Grizzlies didn't make such runs again, but 10 pts in playoffs can be enough to seal a game.

Various players didn't show-up that game, it's not only on Splitter and he was a rookie than. But as advanced stats suggest, putting Splitter in the line up will not necessarily solve all Spurs problems.

BTW, timvp made a quality post.

Sorry, you're right. Bonner only allowed the first four points Arthur scored. Pop went with Hill, Parker, Neal and Jefferson next to Splitter in the fourth quarter. Arthur went off on Jefferson, not Bonner. All Splitter did during that disastrous stretch was draw three fouls on Randolph. What a suck-ass.

[Obstructed_View]

We can all be grateful that Pop allowed Splitter to bloom as a player by watching the other guys play all last season. Genius if you try not to think about it.

[therealtruth]

Baloney. They took a gamble on a huge contract from RJ (which I don't have a problem with), but then decided to extend him after he was a failure (and continues to be). They might have saved some money short term, but it's yet to be seen if it won't be more costly long term (with quick playoff exits).
They're in love with Matty and basically outbidded themselves to extend him.
They had the chance to use Dice's contract and they instead stood pat and pocketed the difference.

I thought they did address the backup PG situation in the offseason with TJ Ford. But this team is sorely lacking another relatively solid big.

When somebody says "they're making lemonade", I take it to mean they're dealing with a situation that's outside of their control. Manu and TJ injured: they're making lemonade with Neal at the G and PG position.

But there's nothing outside of their control as far as how this roster was put together or how Pop decides to use it.

The big situation should have been addressed back in '07/08. The Spurs instead got worse. They got rid of Scola and Horry and Oberto started declining. Instead they traded for more offense at the SF position. If they had got a big man I am sure they could have found somebody to play small forward much easier.

[Obstructed_View]

The mistake was trading defense and size for offense when trying to replace Bowen. The sin was signing the mistake to a long term contract after it was clear he didn't fit in.

[therealtruth]

Coaches have their growing pains as rookies, hit their peak and then eventually start to lose it, just like players do. It's really not that different. Pop lost his fastball a long time ago, and anyone who argues otherwise is not paying attention. A coach can't be in one place more than 10 years. They need to recharge their batteries, ride/trust new star players, get a change of scenery.

The reason Phil Jackson had a longer peak than Pop is because he left the Bulls after eight years. He took a break. He changed coasts, changed stars, changed everything.

Pop stayed and stayed and stayed. He can't accept that his veteran stars are all in decline (especially Tim). He needs to trust young big men to help Tim out, but he won't. Same shit, different day.

He's got way too much power in the organization. Any competent owner/GM would've pretty much ordered him to play Tiago 35 mins a night by now. Leonard too. Not only are these guys the future, but they're two of the five most talented players on the team.

Playing guys like Bonner and RJ minutes over them is kind of absurd. That's just paying salary over performance, which is a sign that your team has poor leadership and doesn't prioritize winning above all else.

Pop's been drinking his own kool aid for too long. That's what happens when you have too much power and little accountability. The Nellie ball stuff he's been trying hasn't worked the past few years but he refuses to budge.

[ElNono]

The big situation should have been addressed back in '07/08. The Spurs instead got worse. They got rid of Scola and Horry and Oberto started declining. Instead they traded for more offense at the SF position. If they had got a big man I am sure they could have found somebody to play small forward much easier.

I understand the reasoning back then. They were just coming out from winning a championship. Made the WCF the next season. In hindsight, I think Bowen's decline/losing him was a much bigger blow than many suspected. But I also think trading for RJ was a genuine attempt at breeding some life for one more run. I can't fault them for that. I disagree with some of the decisions made afterwards though, as I pointed out in my previous post.

[Fabbs]

He's got way too much power in the organization. Any competent owner/GM would've pretty much ordered him to play Tiago 35 mins a night by now. Leonard too. Not only are these guys the future, but they're two of the five most talented players on the team.

Playing guys like Bonner and RJ minutes over them is kind of absurd. That's just paying salary over performance, which is a sign that your team has poor leadership and doesn't prioritize winning above all else.

You are invited to the next Spurs Realist meeting.

[TJastal]

The big situation should have been addressed back in '07/08. The Spurs instead got worse. They got rid of Scola and Horry and Oberto started declining. Instead they traded for more offense at the SF position. If they had got a big man I am sure they could have found somebody to play small forward much easier.

They took a gamble on Jefferson, it didn't really pay off as expected. Should have just bit the bullet and paid some luxury tax and been done with the situation. Heck, they might have even gotten a nice trade out of RJ's expiring contract with just a little patience. Certainly, re-signing Bonner to that stupid contract didn't help either. By not resigning either, Holt would have been on the hook for some pocket change (for millionaries at least) but not completely sunk. They could have even probably paid nothing by not signing Tiago till this season. Considering how little Pop played him last year, he would have been better off developing his skills furthur in Europe tbh.

Funny how teams that don't make stupid financial / personnel decisions usually end up in a better position. Take the rockets this year. Even after all the unfortunate business with Yao, they have used good sound logic and haven't shot themselves in the foot. Thus they were able to grab Dalambert from FA this past off season who has been a great addition. Sure would have been nice if the spurs had been in a position to do the same.

[Fabbs]

Points Allowed Per 48 Minutes on the Court
Matt Bonner - 90.5
Richard Jefferson - 90.7
Tim Duncan - 91.5
Tony Parker - 92.9
TJ Ford - 94.7
Tiago Splitter - 95.0
Danny Green - 95.5
James Anderson - 95.9
Manu Ginobili - 96.3
Kawhi Leonard - 97.2
DeJuan Blair - 98.9
Gary Neal - 99.5

timvp, don't you think this is the absolute poster child as to why sometimes statistics do not tell the true story at all? I mean do we not all agree Bonner is one of, if not the most sucky defensive players in the NBA? Since his entering until now.
Soft Dick coming in at #2 on this list.

Not trying to sidetrack all the other stats you posted.
Superb writeup.

[therealtruth]

How can Pop expect the defense to get better if he's not playing the best defenders the most minutes? Or did he abandon that idea. It's hard to know what he believes.

[TDMVPDPOY]

splitter is really good when his shots are falling, we should continue to dump the ball into him and milk his hot hand, but no instead we go away from him either benchin his ass or some shit scrubs are chuckin up shots....

[therealtruth]

They took a gamble on Jefferson, it didn't really pay off as expected. Should have just bit the bullet and paid some luxury tax and been done with the situation. Heck, they might have even gotten a nice trade out of RJ's expiring contract with just a little patience. Certainly, re-signing Bonner to that stupid contract didn't help either. By not resigning either, Holt would have been on the hook for some pocket change (for millionaries at least) but not completely sunk. They could have even probably paid nothing by not signing Tiago till this season. Considering how little Pop played him last year, he would have been better off developing his skills furthur in Europe tbh.

Funny how teams that don't make stupid financial / personnel decisions usually end up in a better position. Take the rockets this year. Even after all the unfortunate business with Yao, they have used good sound logic and haven't shot themselves in the foot. Thus they were able to grab Dalambert from FA this past off season who has been a great addition. Sure would have been nice if the spurs had been in a position to do the same.

I'm not even sure if getting a big makes sense with Pop as the coach. He's still going to play Bonner his 20+ minutes.

[Fabbs]

Funny how teams that don't make stupid financial / personnel decisions usually end up in a better position. Take the rockets this year. Even after all the unfortunate business with Yao, they have used good sound logic and haven't shot themselves in the foot. Thus they were able to grab Dalambert from FA this past off season who has been a great addition. Sure would have been nice if the spurs had been in a position to do the same.

Shane Battier a 14Xs better choice as a replacement for Bowen compared to the Phag 3? (Finley Bonner DickJeff)

[therealtruth]

Shane Battier a 14Xs better choice as a replacement for Bowen compared to the Phag 3? (Finley Bonner DickJeff)

They could have got a defensive small forward with and outside shot like Battier then tried to get a big to pair with TD.

[mathbzh]

For me the frustration with Bonner comes only from playoffs failures.

Bonner is a +/- king in the regular season. So, no matter if we like him or not, we didn't lose many games because of him.

But in the playoffs, not only his individual numbers are bad but he also has consistently one of the worst +/- on the team.
Bonner spreading the floor does not work in the playoffs.

But Pop sticks to his rotation and will once again try to do some adjustment when we will be manhandled in the first round.

[Dex]

This post makes altogether too much sense....and that makes me sad.

Pop's little "push it" dance with the happy feet and the Furniture Factory Warehouse-arm is the new version of the D'Antoni "GoGoGo!"

[SenorSpur]

For me the frustration with Bonner comes only from playoffs failures.

Bonner is a +/- king in the regular season. So, no matter if we like him or not, we didn't lose many games because of him.

But in the playoffs, not only his individual numbers are bad but he also has consistently one of the worst +/- on the team.
Bonner spreading the floor does not work in the playoffs.

But Pop sticks to his rotation and will once again try to do some adjustment when we will be manhandled in the first round.

The +/- statistics on Bonner are nice, but I'd really like to know his playoff FG%. Still, I don't need statistics to tell me what it already quite evident. As far as I'm concerned Bonner's reputation as a playoff choker were evident the first year after Robert Horry retired. He's only managed to cement that reputation every year since. For Pop to continue relying on Bonner as a rotation player, regular season or playoffs, and expecting different results, is not only insane, but it's also the classic defintion of the word, insanity.

[mathbzh]

The +/- statistics on Bonner are nice, but I'd really like to know his playoff FG%.

Career 0.392 FG% 0.323 3P%
+/- or FG%, he is bad in the playoffs

[SenorSpur]

Career 0.392 FG% 0.323 3P%
+/- or FG%, he is bad in the playoffs

Thanks. I was too lazy to look it up. I figured he got worse in the playoffs.

[TJastal]

Thanks. I was too lazy to look it up. I figured he got worse in the playoffs.

Bonner's great when teams aren't paying attention to him and he can take virtually uncontested 3's. Heck, that's all he practices every day, shooting uncontested 3's. If he got the same looks in the playoffs I'm sure he would probably be shooting close to 40% too. But in fact we know that doesn't happen in the playoffs.

[angelbelow]

Fantastic write up on the merit of research and effort. The context is pretty damn good too. Hopefully Splitter does get more burn and we can re-visit the statistics with a much higher sample size.

[therealtruth]

For me the frustration with Bonner comes only from playoffs failures.

Bonner is a +/- king in the regular season. So, no matter if we like him or not, we didn't lose many games because of him.

But in the playoffs, not only his individual numbers are bad but he also has consistently one of the worst +/- on the team.
Bonner spreading the floor does not work in the playoffs.

But Pop sticks to his rotation and will once again try to do some adjustment when we will be manhandled in the first round.

The regular season allows you to catch teams unprepared but in the playoffs their better prepared. Wide open 3's you see in the regular season just don't happen in the playoffs especially the deeper you get. You don't make it far in the playoffs by leaving people wide open from the 3pt land. It will never work in the playoffs. You need to be able to hit contested 3's in the playoffs.

[Josepatches_]

In fairness, Tiago played the majority of his minutes with the Quinn, Novak and Udoka crew last year (these guys weren't exactly the 2002 Sacramento Kings).

And this year, (in between him, Blair, and Bonner) he's seen the least minutes with not only the starting back-court, but also Duncan.

Wonder what those numbers would be like if Blair and Splitter switched spots in the rotation?

This.

If he is playing with Manu,Tp and TD as starter the numbers would be differents

[therealtruth]

This.

If he is playing with Manu,Tp and TD as starter the numbers would be differents

All those bunnies Blair misses of passes become fouls and/or dunks.

[SenorSpur]

Bonner's great when teams aren't paying attention to him and he can take virtually uncontested 3's. Heck, that's all he practices every day, shooting uncontested 3's. If he got the same looks in the playoffs I'm sure he would probably be shooting close to 40% too. But in fact we know that doesn't happen in the playoffs.

Taking uncontested 3's in practices requires NO mental toughness, which is why he's good at it.

[Russ]

Great article, timvp. But nestled amidst all the insightful analysis is a premise based upon sand.

Taking a team's points per minute scored when one player or another is on the court seems about as reliable as trusting lottery numbers in a fortune cookie.

There is no underlying anaylsis tying the result (points per minute) to the varaible (who is on the court), simply an assumption that some correlation must exist.

This is analogous to a gambling theory called "trends." Proponents of trends analysis take a set of seeminly unrelated (but important-sounding) variables and run permutations of them until they find a pattern of results that deviates from the norm. They then look for those variables in upcoming contests (e.g., road underdog of more than 10 points after a home loss) and use them to attempt to predict future outcomes. It is a complete sham and trends bettors are soon tapped out. Why? Because the variables are arbitrary and meaningless although they seem significant when juxtaposed against an apparent pattern of results.

For example, let's theorize that the reason that the Spurs' points per minutes go up when Bonner is on the floor is due to Bonner's negative effect on the Spurs defense -- opponents score their points in less time per possession which gives Bonner's Spurs more possessions per minute in which to score. Conversely, maybe opposing teams take longer to score (or not score) when Splitter is in the middle, giving Splitter's Spurs less posessions per minute. That may or may not be the case but it seems at least worth knowing.

Look at the Spurs' great defensive teams during the twin towers era. I bet the Spurs' points per minute when Robinson or Duncan were on the floor were less than those of Bonner's current Spurs. So is Bonner an inherently superior offensive player to Duncan or Robinson?

The great Spurs teams enforced a slower pace that hurt their own offensive output but hurt their opponents offensive output more resulting in a net benefit to the Spurs (and playoff wins).

Could Splitter's presence on the court be having the same effect? I don't know but it seems unfair to compare the Spurs' offensive output with Splitter (vs Bonner) on the floor without comparing their respective defensive points allowed per minute. (And even then, you're just into a "plus-minus" analysis which is very suspect as well, i.e., the guy who goes 9-12 from the field with 10 rebounds and has a minus 10 vs. the guy who goes 1-10 from the field and has a plus 10 -- what does this really tell us about their relative worth in a game?)

There may be a reason that NBA teams send scouts to evaluate players and upcoming opponent teams rather than simply "running the numbers." Our eyes tell us one thing about Splitter and another about Bonner. We could all see the effect of the old Spurs defense turning the screws on a team until their team's body language told us more than a spread sheet ever could.

I don't know if Splitter and Leonard (along with Duncan) can lead the Spurs back to those days, but I'd sure like to find out.

[quentin_compson]

Good thread.

As far as playing Duncan and Splitter together more, I don't see why Tim and Tiago shouldn't be able to coexist on offense. Tim is taking quite a lot midrange shots these days, so it's not like they would get in each other's way constantly.

[GSH]

But there's nothing outside of their control as far as how this roster was put together or how Pop decides to use it.

HOW the roster got put together is about as relevant as yesterday's weather. This is the roster they have. They can't get anything for Jefferson, they can't get anything for Bonner, and they don't want to break up the Big 3. They might trade Splitter, but since they need an additional big that would be sort of self-defeating.

You people can keep whining and bitching and debating what happened in the past. (And you will.) You can keep believing that economics don't figure into the equation. (And you will.) I was trying to look for an explanation that was a little more logical than "Pop has a man-crush on Bonner" - or "Pop suddenly quit believing in defense".

In the workplace, low-level peons always believe their boss does random, stupid shit. You can try to explain to them that thinking like that is a big part of the reason they are still low-level peons. But if they could understand it, they wouldn't be low-level peons to begin with. Not that the boss is always right. It's just that it's usually better to try and understand the whole picture, instead of jumping to weak conclusions. (Now I'll sit back and wait for the flaming - from the low-level peons. Step right up.)