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  1. #26
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I knew that was coming. Thought the idiots like chump or goran would have said it though. If you agree or disagree they usually do pretty good research.
    Are either of yall saying their data is wrong?
    The data is obviously cherry-picked... Apparently there's enough oil to go around to be a net-exporter of it. He conveniently missed mentioning that.

  2. #27
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    heritage.org, oilco !!

    so US can export oil and refined products because the gas/oil prices are so low and supply is so high?

  3. #28
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Heritage foundation is lying to you. Do you want me to tell you how?

    Not that I think you will listen or care, sadly.

    (edit)

    The ironic thing is that they are, in essence using half-truths themselves to do it.

  4. #29
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    This has been done to death, so I am going to go off my memory as much as possible.

    Datapoints and given important principles, numbered for quick reference.:
    1)Oil is fungible, and a global market. All inputs get dumped into the same tub, and taken out by buyers, who don't care where it comes from. PRICES ARE GLOBAL.
    2) US produces 10% of global supply
    3) US consumes 25% of global supply
    4) In 1993, China was an exporter of oil. In 2009, it passed Japan as the #2 importer. It is projected to surpass the US within 10 years if current trends continue. Combine these two datapoints, and 100% of Chinese imports represent completely new demand that was not there 20 years ago.


    Half-truth #2: Increasing oil production takes too long and would not impact the market for at least a decade.
    This has been the mantra of the anti-drilling crowd for years, and the longer politicians listen to the message, the longer the nation’s oil resources will remain undeveloped. If access to areas that are currently off limits is increased, it will take time to explore and extract that oil. But that does not change the fact that the nation needs it today and also in the future. Furthermore, some of this oil can reach the market in much less than a decade if the permitting process is streamlined and the Keystone XL pipeline—which could bring up to 830,000 barrels of oil per day from Canada to the Gulf Coast refineries—is built.
    This is a lie because it omits the small detail that this oil will get to market somewhere, somehow. Keystone or not. THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE WILL HAVE NO EFFECT WHATSOEVER ON THE GLOBAL PRICE OF OIL.

    Added to this is that the oil that is "off limits", usually a code word for offshore, require billion-dollar ships and platforms to get to. There is a huge backlog in building the ships. The bottleneck is not having enough area to drill in, it is getting the ships online. Oil companies are hesitant to spend too much on these things, because they got burned in the 1990's by low oil prices and are leery of large capital expenditures.

    "off limits" also generally refers to ANWAR, another tried and true vacuous talking point. ANWAR, if extracted would supply the US with less than four months supply of oil. Then it would be gone. It is simply not large enough to make a difference in the long run.

    It mixes in some truth, but omits some key points. Either the author doesn't know how the market works, or is leaving it out.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 03-19-2012 at 09:22 AM. Reason: Civility. I have to learn to stop posting while cranky and tired.

  5. #30
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Half-truth #3: Oil is not enough. America has only 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves.
    President Obama frequently uses this number to push federal investments in alternative sources of energy that cannot stand the test of the market. The reality is that he uses this number deceptively. According to the Ins ute for Energy Research:
    [A]lthough the U.S. is said to have only 20 billion barrels of oil in reserves, the amount of oil that is technically recoverable in the U.S. is more than 1.4 trillion barrels, with the largest deposits located offshore, in portions of Alaska, and in shale in the Rocky Mountain West. When combined with resources from Canada and Mexico, total recoverable oil in North America exceeds 1.7 trillion barrels, or more than the world has used since the first oil well was drilled over 150 years ago in usville, Pennsylvania. To put this in context, Saudi Arabia has about 260 billion barrels of oil in proved reserves.
    One reason to view “reserves” estimates with caution is the fact that they are constantly in flux. In 1980, the U.S. had oil reserves of roughly 30 billion barrels. Yet from 1980 through 2010, it produced over 77 billion barrels of oil. In other words, over the last 30 years, the U.S. produced over 150 percent of the proved reserves that it had in 1980. If the massive quan ies of U.S. oil are made available to explore and produce, the current estimated reserves of 20 billion barrels would certainly increase, providing much more production over decades to come. In other words, reserves are not a stagnant number.[4]
    This is another collection of lies by omission.

    Technically recoverable = possible
    Technically recoverable does not equal economically recoverable.

    You can get all the oil you want to get at $1000 bbl, but no one will buy it.
    If the massive quan ies of U.S. oil are made available to explore and produce, the current estimated reserves of 20 billion barrels would certainly increase,
    Yes it would. The big question is whether those reserves will increase faster than they are drilled out of the ground. Globally, we have pumped oil out of the ground faster than we have discovered it since 1984.

    The really big, easy to drill formations were sucked dry of oil a long time ago. What is left requires more effort, more drills and more money to get at, even with all the fracking you want. As the size of the deposits goes down, you have to find more and more at faster rates to maintain production rates.

    In 1980, the U.S. had oil reserves of roughly 30 billion barrels. Yet from 1980 through 2010, it produced over 77 billion barrels of oil.
    Again, leaving out a few things. Sonic imaging vastly improved in the time, as has drilling technology. We have reached the diminishing returns portion of the production curve. Sorry. There will be no magic to save oil production going forward.

    The other portion left out is that the reserves they are pumping up and cherry-picking data to make their case with tend to be locked up on oil sands. Oil sands have gotten a lot more economical because of gas prices (the oil must be heated by burning natgas), but getting that full "technically recoverable" figure means strip mining HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF SQUARE MILES. Possible yes, but at a huge cost, even if one incorrectly ignores the environmental costs.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 03-18-2012 at 07:12 PM.

  6. #31
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If one assumes that the US doubles production TOMORROW, we would still produce only 19% of global supply, and still have to import oil.

    All the permits in the world aren't going to magic up the drilling rigs and trained operators to run them.

    All the reserves in the world don't mean anything if they cost more to get out of the ground than you can sell it for. "Te ially recoverable" includes the subset of oil that will, quite literally, require $1,000 per barrel OR MORE to get out of the ground.

    If you don't have data on what is economically recoverable in the next 5 to 10 years at roughly the same oil prices we have now, you do not have the data you need to view the topic with any degree of clarity.

  7. #32
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I knew that was coming. Thought the idiots like chump or goran would have said it though. If you agree or disagree they usually do pretty good research.
    Doing good research is not incompatible with cherry picking data.

    They do this, because they know people suck it up and then turn around and present it to the uninformed, who usually know even less then the people who sucked it up in the first place.

    A few minutes of critical thinking, and realizing that heritage is promoting a definite narrative would provide someone with a good reason to be somewhat skeptical and wonder what was being left out.

    If this sounds like I'm bustin' yer balls, I am. You let yourself get suckered.

  8. #33
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Then focus on the data and not the source. Or don't. I don't care.
    What exactly is Obama doing that you think is the right approach?
    The 2% is not accurate. There was a study that said there was more oil in the Rocky's alone than any other country. That is my point. You are commenting without even reading the OP. If you want to be a troll then go ahead but you seem to actually want a discussion about this. You just rather assume the info is innacurate because of where it comes from.
    Obama's "all of the above" approach is about right.

    You can't assume Heritage is inaccurate. You can assume they aren't telling you the full truth.

  9. #34
    Rising above the Fray spursncowboys's Avatar
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    Obama's "all of the above" approach is about right.

    You can't assume Heritage is inaccurate. You can assume they aren't telling you the full truth.
    Not what he says at election time. What has he done? What exactly has he done to be an "all of the above"?

  10. #35
    Rising above the Fray spursncowboys's Avatar
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    it. Since SNC has doubled down on this tired bull , from what I see and challenged anyone to pick apart the OP, he now gets what he asked for.

    This has been done to death, so I am going to go off my memory as much as possible.

    Datapoints and given important principles, numbered for quick reference.:
    1)Oil is fungible, and a global market. All inputs get dumped into the same tub, and taken out by buyers, who don't care where it comes from. PRICES ARE GLOBAL.
    2) US produces 10% of global supply
    3) US consumes 25% of global supply
    4) In 1993, China was an exporter of oil. In 2009, it passed Japan as the #2 importer. It is projected to surpass the US within 10 years if current trends continue. Combine these two datapoints, and 100% of Chinese imports represent completely new demand that was not there 20 years ago.




    This is a lie because it omits the small detail that this oil will get to market somewhere, somehow. Keystone or not. THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE WILL HAVE NO EFFECT WHATSOEVER ON THE GLOBAL PRICE OF OIL.

    Added to this is that the oil that is "off limits", usually a code word for offshore, require billion-dollar ships and platforms to get to. There is a huge backlog in building the ships. The bottleneck is not having enough area to drill in, it is getting the ships online. Oil companies are hesitant to spend too much on these things, because they got burned in the 1990's by low oil prices and are leery of large capital expenditures.

    "off limits" also generally refers to ANWAR, another tried and true vacuous talking point. ANWAR, if extracted would supply the US with less than four months supply of oil. Then it would be gone. It is simply not large enough to make a difference in the long run.

    I mixes in some truth, but omits some key points. Either the author doesn't know how the market works, or is leaving it out.
    Your own opinion, which is all you have stated, says that obama is fudging numbers with how much we produce/consume. Congrats.
    Also you are acting as if the oil is dictated by the free market and not by a cartel. But so far all your gotcha seemed to fall short.

  11. #36
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    snc, who or what do you think that heritage represents?

  12. #37
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Your own opinion, which is all you have stated, says that obama is fudging numbers with how much we produce/consume. Congrats.
    Also you are acting as if the oil is dictated by the free market and not by a cartel. But so far all your gotcha seemed to fall short.
    You don't seem to get there's not just one cartel in the oil business.

    And hand waving is not arguing.

  13. #38
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    You don't seem to get there's not just one cartel in the oil business.

    And hand waving is not arguing.
    but firms do collude through fronts like the heritage foundation. thats why i ask snc why he thinks that they should dictate policy like this. they are political leaders for him. why does he look to them for leadership?

  14. #39
    Rising above the Fray spursncowboys's Avatar
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    but firms do collude through fronts like the heritage foundation. thats why i ask snc why he thinks that they should dictate policy like this. they are political leaders for him. why does he look to them for leadership?
    You are making alot of assumptions. What does leadership have to do with this? What firm exactly are you presuming is funding heritage to come up with there fact checking of bho. Why do you keep trying to make this about me?

  15. #40
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Maybe you missed this earlier.
    Question: What is the motivation for oil companies to drive down the price of their products?

  16. #41
    Rising above the Fray spursncowboys's Avatar
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    http://www.heritage.org/about

    Here is the about page of heritage. They maintain their conservative principals pretty consistently. I guess if companies who agree with them want to contribute to get higher profits (without govt. intervention) they can go to this page:
    http://www.heritage.org/about/herita...hip/membership

  17. #42
    Rising above the Fray spursncowboys's Avatar
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    And yes I agree with 95% of their stands and am a member. However I know what I believe and don't wait for them to make a stance on an issue for me to figure mine out.

  18. #43
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    What firm exactly are you presuming is funding heritage to come up with there fact checking of bho.
    Exxon/Mobil and Chevron are substantial donors. There could certainly be others that remain anonymous.

    You'd already know this if you had an ounce of intellectual curiosity, but you enjoy being spoon fed by folks you prefer to tell you what to believe.

  19. #44
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    http://www.heritage.org/about

    Here is the about page of heritage. They maintain their conservative principals pretty consistently. I guess if companies who agree with them want to contribute to get higher profits (without govt. intervention) they can go to this page:
    http://www.heritage.org/about/herita...hip/membership
    As mentioned above, they already have.

    Looks like they are getting their money's worth.

  20. #45
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Obama's "all of the above" approach is about right.

    You can't assume Heritage is inaccurate. You can assume they aren't telling you the full truth.
    I think it's safe to say both sides have an agenda.

    Believe Obama if you will. I will not.

    That said, I do agree with most of your arguments this time... How often does that happen?

  21. #46
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    http://www.heritage.org/about

    Here is the about page of heritage. They maintain their conservative principals pretty consistently. I guess if companies who agree with them want to contribute to get higher profits (without govt. intervention) they can go to this page:
    http://www.heritage.org/about/herita...hip/membership
    Why do you go only to them to get who and what they are? They get most of there money from anonymous donors. ther corporate donors are a whos who of american and foreign industrialists.

    whats awesome is that you say that you agree with 95% of what they say and still think that you think for yourself.

  22. #47
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Why do you go only to them to get who and what they are? They get most of there money from anonymous donors. ther corporate donors are a whos who of american and foreign industrialists.

    whats awesome is that you say that you agree with 95% of what they say and still think that you think for yourself.
    Just because the donors are from certain types of industry, class, etc. doesn't mean they are to be ignored. You have to look deeper, into if their reasons are legitimate or not. they often are.

  23. #48
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    WC, maybe you could take a stab at this one.
    Question: What is the motivation for oil companies to drive down the price of their products?

  24. #49
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Just because the donors are from certain types of industry, class, etc. doesn't mean they are to be ignored. You have to look deeper, into if their reasons are legitimate or not. they often are.
    Sorry but i do not take advice on ethics or philosophy from fools.

    The OP is a sales brochure for the pipeline that is funded in no small part by the firms that own the gulf coast refineries that never once talks about the trade surplus for petrol.

    Naivete of this nature is justified in children after a certain point it becomes willful ignorance and stupidity.

  25. #50
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    WC, maybe you could take a stab at this one.
    Question: What is the motivation for oil companies to drive down the price of their products?
    I'll take it on poor judgement on my part that you are actually asking a serious question.

    They have a balance to find for maximum profit. They will desire the highest price they can get, but they have compe ion as well.

    Leo Yau (Yau Leopoldo) taught me how Intel maximizes profits. It's an interesting game of cat and mouse between you and your compe ion. It often occurs by finding a cheaper way of doing things, but keeping your retail price in line with the compe ion until you have extra production capacity and want to increase market share. Then you drop your price, but you pick a strategic time. I'm not going to bother making a proper graph to illustrate the Intel process, and it probably doesn't work in the oil industry the same way.

    I honestly don't know what works best for the oil industry, except for one thing. Supply and demand rules in the free market. You lower your price vs. the compe ion to gain market share, but if they can match you, you lose profits. Therefore, it requires a development in new technology, or a way of getting your base materials (resources) for less money. Just getting your resources for less alone will increase profits, and if you can reduce your sales price more than your compe ion, then it's a win in volume.
    Last edited by Wild Cobra; 03-19-2012 at 06:20 AM.

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