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  1. #26
    GAME OVER gospursgojas's Avatar
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    The drop in defense (or e in opponents scoring....however you wanna look at it) with rj on the bench has everything to do with rj playing most his mins with tim.

  2. #27
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    Astounding that everyone but Blair improves without RJ

  3. #28
    Veteran bigfan's Avatar
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    I think one of the "intangibles" about Jackson over Jefferson that opposing teams must keep in mind is that much like the presidents they are named for, Jackson is much more likely to punch you in the face and break your teeth.

  4. #29
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    I see the Honeymoon phase of RJ's departure hasn't ended yet
    LOL, did Laker fan ever regret losing Kwame Brown? Likewise, I cannot picture a time when Spurs fan will ever look back and say "Damn, I wish we would have kept the sucker another year".

  5. #30
    Don't stop believin' Dex's Avatar
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    I'm betting someone is already planning a writeup on this, but I'd really like to see how the subtraction of Jefferson affects the Spurs from a financial standpoint. Obviously, taking his contract off the books and exchanging with Jackson's, which expires in 2012/2013, should change the outlook of the next couple summers.

    Another factor which I'm sure has been mentioned, but hasn't really been highlighted, is how the Spurs saved their amnesty which 90% of people assumed they would use last offseason. Who will be the main target for amnesty now? Will Bonner get the axe if he flames out again in this years playoffs?

  6. #31
    Veteran Libri's Avatar
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    The most glaring difference is the fact that San Antonio has gone to the free throw line much more without Jefferson on the court. The overall percentage is basically the same but, per 48 minutes, free throws made (14.4 to 17.6) and attempted (19.8 to 24.3) go way up.
    I found this observation interesting. His career average in FT attempts demonstrate a significant drop off from his days in New Jersey and Milwaukee to his first year with the Spurs. A small drop off was expected because he would no longer be the primary option on offense but to go from 6+ attempts with the Bucks to 1.2 attempts this season shows that RJ turned into a one dimensional player on offense, content with camping out at the 3-point line.

    The Spurs FO didn't sign Richard to become a 3-point shooter. From what I remember, Jefferson was supposed get his points by the flow of the game, which included driving to the basket and making free throws.

  7. #32
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    I found this observation interesting. His career average in FT attempts demonstrate a significant drop off from his days in New Jersey and Milwaukee to his first year with the Spurs. A small drop off was expected because he would no longer be the primary option on offense but to go from 6+ attempts with the Bucks to 1.2 attempts this season shows that RJ turned into a one dimensional player on offense, content with camping out at the 3-point line.

    The Spurs FO didn't sign Richard to become a 3-point shooter. From what I remember, Jefferson was supposed get his points by the flow of the game, which included driving to the basket and making free throws.
    It's interesting he never really felt comfortable in the offense doing anything but shooting 3's. Meanwhile Jack is able to feel at home and he's already found Splitter for a dunk.

  8. #33
    Banned
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    After read this I can see that timvp doesn't like RJ at all

  9. #34
    Believe.
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    Don't have the stats in front of me but the theme of Bonner's comparable stats is simple: He numbers look great in the regular season and bad in the playoffs.
    So if we can't count on either Bonner and Blair in the playoffs. Are we saying we will either see a lot of Duncan and Tiago playing together and a forward line-up Jackson and Kawhi playing together ? If you ask me I would rather go to war with either combination, they have the defensive and compe ive edgeness in them to succed in the playoffs

  10. #35
    Out with the old... Obstructed_View's Avatar
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    After read this I can see that timvp doesn't like RJ at all
    Jefferson is averaging 6.5 free throw attempts in his first two games off the bench in Oakland. He hasn't averaged that many since he was in Milwaukee.

  11. #36
    America runs on Duncan! Horse's Avatar
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    Ellie comes to mind in '99.

    Jack in '03.

    Horry in '05 and '07.
    Jaren Jackson '99
    Speedy Claxton '03

  12. #37
    One of the most best jag's Avatar
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    PPS includes free throws but I don't understand what's "double counting" about it. The PPS I used was for each individual so it's not like the increase in team free throw attempts was inflating the individual stats. I used PPS because it highlights the fact that it's easier to get to the line when RJ isn't on the court, for whatever reasons, and that happens to be the main reason why the overall offense is much improved.

    I could use eFG% and that would show similar improvements but 1. it misses out on a big reason why the offense is improved without RJ 2. I don't see how eliminating free throws makes it "single counting" instead of "double counting".

    In theory, I agree that WP48 would explain the overall improvement after taking out RJ. However, in this particular case, I think WP48 is more of a coincidence than the reason:

    1. Leonard's WP48 has been great virtually all season but it hasn't corresponded well at all to the actual play. The Spurs have struggled with Leonard on the court even though WP48 predicts the Spurs would be much better with Leonard.

    2. The WP48 equation leans heavily on stats that have little to do with offense (namely defensive rebounds, steals and blocks) and thus the reason why Ben Wallace led the league in this stat a few years and why even an extremely washed up version of Marcus Camby is still elite. I'd argue that the WP48 difference from RJ to Leonard should manifest mostly on the defensive end ... but that's not what happened.

    3. WP48 has been a poor predictor of Spurs basketball this season. Going by WP48, Leonard has been responsible for more wins than any other players on the team ... and we know both objectively and subjectively that isn't true. It also tells us that Danny Green has been responsible for more wins than Tim Duncan this year, which we obviously know doesn't hold any water.

    4. WP48 has a poor history of actually "finding" the key players on the Spurs. According to WP48, Bowen was worthless, Parker is mediocre and Duncan is about as good as Brent Barry. I'm a big fan of WP48 in a league-wide sense and to easily find overrated/underrated players, but the correlation between a high WP48 number and actual production over the years has been extremely low. PER is basically antiquated these days but it actually correlates between for the Spurs over the years.
    Nice work

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