General Advanced Statistics Discussion

[jesterbobman]

Seemed appropriate to have a stats thread here, given the fact that Advanced stats are being debated more in this forum, and the think tank seems like an appropriate place. Thread for General discussion of models(Strengths and weaknesses of PER, Adj +/-, WP48, Win Shares, etc).

Also, looking at player projection for future years, draft projections and general areas where stats can be used to aid understanding of the game.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

I was reading an article recently (can't remember where) and the Spurs seem to be using this, and going Moneyball. The author re-did the last 3 or 4 drafts based on advance stats, and Hill, Blair, and Kawhi all graded out very high in the re-booted drafts. The days of the first round draft and stash Euro appear to be over, and Moneyball is the new Spurs model. They seem to be going with productivity when other teams were like the old fogies in the movie Moneyball A's FA/draft room, obsessed with physical characteristics instead of results.

If I can dig out the guy's formula, I'll post it. I ran some 2012 draftees, and most of the high guys projected well. An exception was Drummond. He's got bust written all over him, quite possibly the next Kandi Man. Davis, Robinson, and Sullinger graded out MUCH higher, but I'm sure some team will pick him at 2 or 3, and be disappointed. I wouldn't pick him higher than #5.