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and May
We Spurs fans love to worry. It's what we do. Here's what's worrying me at the moment:
1. Tony Parker's Assertiveness
Tony Parker's struggles in the last two games have all of us a bit skittish. The Spurs had a test against too big, physical teams and Parker responded with two of his worst games of the season.
Personally, what has me worried regarding Parker is his assertiveness. I'm not convinced that he realizes he needs to be the alpha dog on this year's team. While Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili can still be great players, they're simply not capable of carrying the team for long stretches of time as effectively as Parker can. Mostly due to age and health reasons, this needs to be a Parker-centric team for the Spurs to make a strong playoff push. Obviously, Duncan and Ginobili will be there in tight situations but over the course of the 48 minutes, Parker has to have the mindset that it's his job to orchestrate the action.
Basically, Parker just needs to be more selfish, be more reluctant to defer and stay in attack mode. Maybe at some point in the playoffs, Duncan and Ginobili will be ready to become the go-to players ... but that's not the case right now. It has to be Parker.
Speaking of Parker, I disagree with the commonly held opinion that Parker struggled simply due to facing big, physical teams. Against the Grizzlies, he appeared unconfident, out of rhythm and just couldn't complete plays he has completed all season long. And, reluctantly, I think we need to start giving credit to Mike Conley. Outside Avery Bradley of the Celtics, Conley has evolved into probably the best defensive point guard in the league. Add in Memphis' overall fundamentally sound defense and I don't think that is a team the Spurs can expect Parker to dominate against on a regular basis.
But the Lakers are a different story. After Wednesday's game, "Parker always sucks against the Lakers; their just too long" was written a lot. Looking back through the years, it's just not true.
Last year, Duncan and Ginobili were horrible against the Lakers. Parker, on the other hand, averaged 19.3 points on 51% shooting and was the best starter in each game. In 2010, Parker averaged 23 on 53% shooting. In 2009, it was 21.3 points on 55% shooting. In 2008, Parker was the best of the Big 3 against the Lakers in the playoffs and averaged 21 points on 57% shooting against L.A. in the regular season.
The Lakers are a horrible matchup for the Spurs but it's not because of Parker. Recent history tells us Parker's struggles on Wednesday were more of a fluke than a continuation of a trend.
2. Pop Forfeiting the Wrong Games
We know that Pop is going to forfeit at least a couple more games down the stretch due to the compressed schedule. In the next 13 days, the Spurs play nine games. Obviously, there's no way Pop should play all the players in all those games. It's simply too dangerous for such an injury-prone team.
But Pop has to be smart about this. If he forfeits the wrong games, he could hurt the team's confidence ... not to mention their ability to land the highest possible seed for the playoffs.
Tomorrow against the Suns, there's no much reason to rest anyone. The Spurs are still recovering from that Lakers travesty so they need to go out and take care of the Suns with all hands on deck.
After the Suns game, the Spurs face a back-to-back-to-back. Going into the season, I thought it would be wise to forfeit the middle game. But not anymore. That middle game is against the Lakers and there's no way the Spurs should just roll over and die. Going on the road and winning that game would officially get this team back on track. That's not an opportunity Pop can flush down the toilet.
Instead, Pop needs to forfeit the first game of that back-to-back-to-back, which happens to be against RJ and the Warriors. With the Warriors desperate to tank, the Spurs have a good shot of winning that game anyways. (For those not following Tankfest 2012, Golden State basically needs to lose the rest of their games or else they will lose their first round pick to the Jazz.)
After the Lakers game, the Spurs travel to Sacramento. The Kings have been horrible lately so Pop could probably get away with limiting the Big 3's minutes in that game.
The Spurs then return to San Antonio their final homestand of the season. First, it's a must-try game against the Lakers. After that, it's two games against tanking teams (the Cavs and Blazers) that should be easy wins.
The final dangerous game on the schedule is the second to last game of the season against the Suns. Unless the Spurs have wrapped up their seed in the playoffs, they should probably attack that one and go for a win ... especially since it'd be the final chance at a tune-up. (Yes, I realized what happened last year in the same situation … don't remind me.) If the Suns are still in the playoff hunt, that could be a really good test and one the Pop should take advantage of.
The season ends against the tanking Warriors. Again, the Spurs should win that game no matter who plays.
Overall, while the schedule looks daunting, Pop can navigate it while giving the Spurs a legit chance to win each game. The Spurs can forfeit two contests (the Warriors games), limit minutes in three contests (Kings, Cavs, Blazers) and play the full roster in the other four games (Lakers twice, Suns twice). When you think about it that way, trying hard in four games over the next 13 days shouldn't be too taxing.
3. Manu Ginobili's Minutes
Amazingly, Manu Ginobili hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a contest this year since the first game of the season. While I'm in favor of Pop being careful with Ginobili down the stretch in an effort to ensure his health for the postseason, I also think Pop should pick a game or two to push his minutes up to around 35 or 36. Relying on the playoffs to be the stage where Ginobili begins to build his endurance sounds like a dangerous proposition to me.
That said, I'm still in favor of Ginobili coming off the bench. The formula that has worked the best includes the Argentine star quarterbacking the reserves. Since Ginobili can't be counted on for big minutes right now, the way to make certain he'll be able to play all the minutes with the bench unit is to (drumroll, please) bring him off the bench. For now, it's really that simple.
Perhaps at some point in the playoffs Ginobili will be needed to start. But even if that happens, we've seen him be able to make that move seamlessly ... so preemptively making the move now isn't necessary.
4. The Starting Lineup
As long as we're on the subject of the starting lineup, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Pop is likely to alter the current starting five but I honestly don't know which way he's leaning.
Next to Duncan, does Pop stick with DeJuan Blair? It looks like Boris Diaw could be on the verge of taking over that spot ... and it could happen as soon as tomorrow against the Suns.
Kawhi Leonard has hit the rookie wall, Danny Green is extremely streaky and Stephen Jackson has the skillset of a starter. Those three things combined would point to Pop making a move. Plus, going into the playoffs with basically two rookies at the wing positions would be ... unconventional, I guess is the right word. Pop is going to make a move here at some point, right? Yeah, I think so.
5. Matt Bonner's Shooting
We all know that Matt Bonner isn't exactly known for his intestinal for ude come the postseason. However, does Bonner actually start choking once the playoffs are in sight? I mean, I know he's not a player who thrives under pressure but is he really so scared of the playoffs that he starts quivering at the end of the regular season? I believe it was angelbelow who pointed out that Bonner has a history of shooting poorly in the month of April.
Three-Point Shooting in Aprils
April 2012: 33.3% (10-for-30)
April 2011: 33.3% (8-for-24)
April 2010: 36.8% (14-for-38)
April 2009: 37.9% (11-for-29)
April 2008: 25.0% (3-for-12)
April 2007: 25.0% (4-for-16)
As a Spur, Bonner is 50-for-149 (33.6%) on three-pointers in April during the regular season. In the playoffs, he's 20-for-62 (32.3%) on three-pointers. The rest of the time, Bonner shoots 42.7% (443-for-1038).
Is Matt Bonner a choker or simply the world's most unluckiest basketball player? The evidence gets more and more difficult to ignore. Since the Spurs rely (and will continue to rely) on Bonner's shooting, I'm beyond worried of how Bonner is going to shoot in the playoffs. I'm petrified.
and May
Bonner starting to fade in April again, GO FIGURE! It's like clockwork! TO HIS FANS hwo support him still and argue his presence! He does this every year towards the playoffs! He is what he is, that last one is not a worry to me it's a given every f in year yet he still plays late.
Great insight, I agree with the Manu section of this post. If I were Pop, I would play him the rest of the way, (baring the final game of course) I liked how Pop managed the big 3 on the first B2B2B but I feel Manu is ready to ride out the rest of the season. He is the heartbeat of the second unit, and keeps a good balance when TP is not in.
it lets get the playoff started and see how this plays out!!!
We could get to the 2nd round if we land a good 1st round opponent. We might even get past that 2nd round if our matchup has a key injury or suspension, or they just shoot piss poor. We probably cannot get through the WCF, but we might. If we get to the Finals, I have no idea what happens from there. We might sweep the Heat. I doubt it, but you never know.
Totally agree with number 1 and believe it is the most important factor. Tony Parker right now is our most dominant player. When he is on and in attack mode he is in the upper echelon of players in this league. He can take over a game like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, and Dwayne Wade. Duncan obviously was once in that category, as was Manu the past few years, but age and injury have derailed them. We need big games out of Parker to make a serious push this year.
Timvp do you really think Avery Bradley is the leagues best defensive point guard?
Yeah, Conley does great against Parker.
He is pretty good man.
lol worried about bonner fckn sucking come playoffs
Real good. Did you see him against Miami? Awesome pick-up for the Celtics.
It's true. I have no idea what there is to worry about in this case.
Parker: I thought he played horribly to begin the season, so I can't recall for sure if his last two games have been the worst of the season. I still remember Pop awkwardly grabbing his head that one game to shake some sense into him. Also, he played really well when he wanted to get on the All Star team. I'm impressed that he can turn it on, but the fact that he got motivated for personal honors strikes me as weak motivation in the whole scheme of Spurs teamwork and the system and all that business. He's played well in the playoffs before and I think he can make it happen.
Pop: The last few years he hasn't shown me a lot of confidence in the playoffs, which is understandable given the relative decline of the Big 3, but I'd like to see him take a more active, confident role instead of his existential fear of and excuses about health and rest.
Manu: I agree. He can't be expected to lead the team anymore. Hopefully Tony doesn't expect him to either. But Manu is perfect to lead the second unit. The second unit is the difference maker for the team.
Starting lineup: The new infusion of players is a nice problem to have but players need to know their roles. Especially Blair vs. Diaw. But on that note, Parker needs to know his role as well.
Bonner: I've noticed over the years his fading. I wouldn't be surprised if his regular season 4th Q shooting percentages were lower than his average either. It's ridiculous that the team revolves around him but that's the way it is. He's going to shrivel and Pop is going to overplay him. Hopefully the other players like Neal and Jack can fill the void from deep.
Yeah, the guy has been a beast this year. Especially over the last couple months. He looked horrible as a rookie but turned it up this year.
(Damn, just looked it up and the Celtics allow only 85 points per 48 minutes that he's in the game.)
Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs. If he can't at least hit around 38% on threes, the Spurs are doomed.
38% shouldn't be a high bar for him ... but unfortunately it probably is.
Agree with all. But you have forgotten health, lol though as if anyone could control that. Good Write-up.
I can't get over this. I just can't. Thanks for ruining my night.
Make that my weekend.
Of course, that was a surprise to you my friend.I can't get over this. I just can't. Thanks for ruining my night.
Make that my weekend.
Last edited by 100%duncan; 04-14-2012 at 01:44 AM. Reason: Bonner sucks
I know he's going to close games. I've known for the past 3 or 4 seasons. It's well do ented.
I just keep lying to myself and for the most part it works up until the playoffs come around. Then I just can't put it away anymore.
F Pop!
F your week end anyway (insert yao's face).I know he's going to close games. I've known for the past 3 or 4 seasons. It's well do ented.
I just keep lying to myself and for the most part it works up until the playoffs come around. Then I just can't put it away anymore.
BTW, thanks for the write LJ!
I personally think that it really is going to depend on Tony more than ever. I just don't know what Pop has to do to get him focused. Maybe show him pictures of Westbrook before the games or some fake ballot of an All Star game in June.
1. While generally speaking Parker may have a bigger slice of the pie than Tim or Manu, I disagree with the notion that he has to this dominant scorer for the Spurs to win.
For one thing, a game is 48 minutes long. Each of the big three should be able to shoulder the load for 16 minutes of a game. That's not unreasonable.
For another, Tim is still our most indispensable player overall because he has the most defensive responsibility, both in terms of rebounding but also in protecting the rim. The Spurs can win games, even playoff games, with the occasional Parker stinker, because there's plenty of scorers to go around. It will be much harder to win if Duncan isn't close to his best, especially in his own end.
Finally, where I thought Tony's game made a quantum leap this year was in passing, not scoring. He used to be a guy who got his assists only a couple of specific ways, either going all the way to the hoop and kicking it out for a corner three or going behind the basket and hitting the trailer. This year though his pick-and-roll game has been better, his fastbreak passing (both 2-on-1 and 3-on-1) is improved and he's even more accurate on oops. He's got almost all the passes in his bag now that a guy like Nash has.
Don't get me wrong, if the layups or floaters or open 14-footers are there, take 'em sure, but Tony can help the team in more ways than scoring.
2. I've been saying it forever, they can win 5 of these last 9 games playing just 2 of the big 3 and rest the other guy. Personally I'd rest Tim and Tony against the W's, and let Manu and Splitter pick-and-roll them to death about 50 times. I'd play 'em all against LA and then rest Manu at Sac and play Tim and Tony in that one as needed.
I do think with OKC's schedule, the Spurs probably need to finish 8-1 to get the 1 seed because I doubt the Thunder will drop more than one game. And Pop should absolutely coach with the 1 seed in mind, and home court over Miami, too. Right now we have no room to drop a game against either team, but that may change depending on what they do. Still, Pop shouldn't relax unless there is room to relax with. Chicago is too far away, but the rest of them aren't.
3. I agree Manu's minutes need to be elevated. I think he's getting a lot of flak about not driving to the hoop enough, but 1) he knows the whole team (and the entire fanbase) is petrified about him being hurt again and doesn't want to let them down, 2) he's very conscious of having to be the main facilitator of that bench unit. He's gone to the line more the last few days, so I think his aggression is coming back. Personally, I'd play him a bunch against the Warriors (they won't be too physical) and the Lakers and then dial back after that.
4. Diaw should start next to Tim. That's fine. I just wish Tiago's minutes would correspond with Ginobili's. There's no reason for it not to. Manu plays half his minutes with the starters and half with the bench. Tiago can do the same thing. I refuse to believe the offense would get stagnant with Tim and Tiago together, as long as Manu is on the court with them running pick-and-rolls. If the other team adjusts by taking out their 2nd big or by putting in a stretch 4, then okay, take Tiago out, but make them adjust first.
Whatever, just drop Blair already and don't play him unless you're up 25.
I don't much care who starts between Jackson or Kawhi, but they should both play about 20-25 mins, so it doesn't matter.
5. Bonner's shooting will only be a factor if other teams allow it to be. I don't think most teams will leave him open that often, tbh. Maybe in fast break situations where he can be a trail guy or off offensive rebounds, but not in half court sets. Manu and Tony have to read accordingly and take the ball to the basket more, since there will be less help.
What I'm looking for from Bonner is to pump fake and drive aggressively or to make the quick pass. Either way, a quick and correct decision, no hesitation. Also, his work on the other end is just as important, because teams will test him until he proves he's up to the challenge.
im only concerned with duncan and whoever decides taking turns to show up....if duncan plays like he gives a damn for the playoffs, then every game is winnable...we cant afford to have pop continue to play the white flag when we are down in the first half...
Good points
One thing that concerns me is when we face good rebounding teams. It was painful to watch us against the Bulls and the Lakers. I don't know if it's a matter of effort or if we suck at it, but it has made a huge difference so far.
Yeah defensively Avery Bradley is pretty much George Hill with better lateral quickness and defensive IQ... thats a scary combination. When they drafted him.. Doc specifically said he could easily become one of the best defensive PG's in the league.Yeah, the guy has been a beast this year. Especially over the last couple months. He looked horrible as a rookie but turned it up this year.
(Damn, just looked it up and the Celtics allow only 85 points per 48 minutes that he's in the game.
Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs. If he can't at least hit around 38% on threes, the Spurs are doomed.
38% shouldn't be a high bar for him ... but unfortunately it probably is.
Parker will do whatever Pop will ask him to do. Even after all these successful NBA years, Parker can still be coached like a rookie by Pop. Pop can call him out, scream at him and TP will react positively. To keep Parker in attack mode, it will just take Pop saying him "you must stay aggressive and I want you to take at least 20 shots in this game".
I don't know if Spurs should forfeit some games or not but Spurs priority for the rest of the season should be to put Lakers on Thunder side of the playoffs bracket. It will significantly increase Spurs odds of winning the west. Spurs should focus on that even if the cost is to enter in the playoffs a little tired. It would be great too if Spurs could avoid Mavs in the first round.
My guesstimate for the playoffs starting lineup is Parker/Green/Jackson/Diaw/Duncan. Agree? Do you like it?
I'm sure a lot of Spurs fans are.
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