Why I think Hydrocarbon Denial is little more than pseudoscience.

[boutons_deux]

Arctic Melt Releasing Ancient Methane



Scientists have identified thousands of sites in the Arctic where methane that has been stored for many millennia is bubbling into the atmosphere.

The methane has been trapped by ice, but is able to escape as the ice melts.

Writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this ancient gas could have a significant impact on climate change.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and levels are rising after a few years of stability.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18120093

then add in all the methane, etc being released by tar sands mining and fracking, we're accelerating the problem. tipping point.

[RandomGuy]

You made this incorrect assumption here,

(sighs)

You presented a 2007 figure for expenditures per generated mWh.

I said (in 2012) that the recent jump in installations has likely caused that to fall.

You then presented a 2010 figure for expenditutes per generated mWh.

There was a huge e in spending in 2009 and 2010, tapering off in 2011 and 2012, to my understanding, although I said I didn't have the exact figures at hand at the moment, that is based on what I remember reading through a lot of reports.

2011 was a record year for both PV and wind installation, and 2012 is expected to beat that.

Your calculations continue to be meaningless.

You can quibble over what you think I said or meant all you want.

If I make a mistake, I will be more than willing to admit it, and do so.

Are you going to admit your calcuations about the generated mWh are meaningless?

I will point out the rather important note to that table:

For the same reason, electricity subsidies for solar and wind show a relatively large subsidy per unit of production, as these groups account for less than 1 percent of total net generation in the country. It is important to recognize that the subsidies-per-megawatthour calculations are a snapshot taken at a particular point in time. Some electricity sources, such as nuclear, coal, oil, and natural gas, have received varying levels of subsidies and support in the past which may have aided them in reaching their current role in electricity production

Balance sheets make good snapshots in time, but without income statements, lose a lot of context.

I have begun doing, in the last year or so, some rather in depth LEC and NPV analysis on various real world projects that I can find to get at the real underlying figures in the issue.

It is interesting seeing how sensitive the equations are to the starting assumptions in the variables, although I have not had the time to really formalize much yet.

FWIW, I generally do not factor in carbon taxes or CO2 imputed damages, even though I think the latter is very reasonable, given the current state of scientific consensus. Yeah, I went there.

Even without these, the 30-50 year LECs for coal and PV are getting closer. I would guess that for the optimal wind locations, wind probably beats coal, after the initial transmission infrastructure investment is made.

Oddly enough, solar panels on a house make for some pretty good investments to an individual, and have NPV characteristics similar to inflation adjusted bonds.

[RandomGuy]

From where does that figure come? All of sources I've seen say renewables make up between 8-12% of our sources of energy consumption with just less than half of that being from hydroelectric.

FWIW, as of 2010.

This is what they think is going to happen by the way.

I think coal is going to drop off a bit more than they project, as the 3-4 bn people in Asia and Africa move up the energy consumption curve, and increasingly start driving the demand for it beyond what can be supplied quickly.

[RandomGuy]

Arctic Melt Releasing Ancient Methane



Scientists have identified thousands of sites in the Arctic where methane that has been stored for many millennia is bubbling into the atmosphere.

The methane has been trapped by ice, but is able to escape as the ice melts.

Writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this ancient gas could have a significant impact on climate change.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and levels are rising after a few years of stability.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18120093

then add in all the methane, etc being released by tar sands mining and fracking, we're accelerating the problem. tipping point.

Fracking's Methane Trail: A Detective Story
http://www.npr.org/2012/05/17/151545...etective-story

"What the official estimates are based on generally are not so many measurements, but rather estimates," says Greg Frost, an atmospheric scientist and air pollution expert for NOAA. "They really are based on maybe a measurement here or there, but then they're largely based on extrapolation. So in other words, you make a measurement in one place or for one particular source, and you do a complicated calculation to assess what does that mean across a whole region, across 20,000 wells?"

A Revealing Tower

A tall tower at the foot of the Rocky Mountains tipped off scientists that these estimates are poor subs utes for measuring.

Sick From Fracking? Doctors, Patients Seek Answers

Kay Allen had just started work, and everything seemed quiet at the Cornerstone Care community health clinic in Burgettstown, Pa. But things didn't stay quiet for long.

"All the girls, they were yelling at me in the back, 'You gotta come out here quick. You gotta come out here quick,' " said Allen, 59, a nurse from Weirton, W.Va.

Allen rushed out front and knew right away what all the yelling was about. The whole place reeked — like someone had spilled a giant bottle of nail polish remover.

"I told everybody to get outside and get fresh air. So we went outside. And Aggie said, 'Kay, I'm going to be sick.' But before I get in, to get something for her to throw up in, she had to go over the railing," she said.

Nothing like this had ever happened in the 20 years that Allen has been at the clinic. After about 45 minutes, she thought the coast was clear and took everyone back inside.

"It was fine. But the next thing you know, they're calling me again. There was another gust. Well, the one girl, Miranda, she was sitting at the registration place, and you could tell she'd had too much of it. And Miranda got overcome by that and she passed out," she said.

http://www.npr.org/2012/05/15/152268...s-seek-answers


The second one is a lot more concerning.

The industry says that the chemicals it uses don't get into water tables, but if you are cracking rock formations, and the volatile (in the chemical sense) chemicals start mixing in with the methane and other hydrocarbons being released, those gases will percolate up through the water table.

I think we need to start pumping a lot of money into studying this, and quickly, before we get too much father along on this production boom, and do things we can't easily take back or fix.

[RandomGuy]

http://bnef.com/PressReleases/view/173

Geographically, Europe will remain one of the biggest markets for money spent on renewable energy projects for the next three years, but with a dwindling share of world investment as European Union governments scale back clean energy support in the face of sovereign debt problems. Growth in the European market will resume post 2015 as investment scales up to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target.

China will take over the lead in renewable energy asset finance from Europe in 2014, with an annual spend of just under $50bn . The US and Canada are also expected to see no lasting slowdown in project construction, together hitting $50bn of investment in 2020.

The most rapid growth will be seen in the rapidly developing economies of India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, with projected growth rates of 10-18% per year over the period 2010 to 2020.

With regard to technologies, cost reductions will spur deployment of solar power, which will undergo the second-fastest percentage growth of all technologies (after offshore wind) from 51GW in 2010 to 1,137GW by 2030. This will require significant capital – an annual average of $130bn over 2010-30 compared with $86bn in 2010.

Guy Turner, director of commodity market research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said: “These results indicate that last year's record renewable energy investment was no one-off despite the recent economic gloom. Big winners over the next 20 years will be the emerging renewable energy hubs in Latin America, Asia, the Middle East and Africa – by 2020 the markets outside of the EU, US, Canada and China will account for 50% of global annual investment in renewable energy capacity.”

FWIW, more data.

Not that I think that certain people posting in this thread are going to read it...

One can always hope.

[RandomGuy]

[IMG][/IMG]
"Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power, Bazilian et al. (2012) "
(drawn from the white papers at bloomberg energy finance unit:
http://bnef.com/free-publications/white-papers/ )

Note the reductions are in a logorythmic scale, on the Y axis.

The PV industry has seen unprecedented declines in module prices since the second half of 2008. Yet, awareness of the current economics of solar power lags among many commentators, policy makers, energy users and even utilities. The reasons are numerous and include: the very rapid pace of PV price reductions, the persistence of out-of-date data in information still being disseminated (occasionally by those with an interest in clouding the discussion), the misconceptions and ambiguity surrounding many of the metrics and concepts commonly used in the PV industry, and ambiguities regarding underlying PV costs due to the numerous policy support measures that have been put in place over the last decade.

As I have said, the world is changing.

[TeyshaBlue]

[IMG][/IMG]
"Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power, Bazilian et al. (2012) "
(drawn from the white papers at bloomberg energy finance unit:
http://bnef.com/free-publications/white-papers/ )

Note the reductions are in a logorythmic scale, on the Y axis.



As I have said, the world is changing.

Math/Grammar Nazi: logarithmic

[TeyshaBlue]

[TeyshaBlue]

I think alot of the price pressure of PV is entirely speculative..ie, we have no idea the range of import levies that can/will be implemented as the Chinese continue to undercut global production/pricing.

[RandomGuy]

Nope, San Antonio just started to build a 400 MW solar farm.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/living_g...ar-1455605.php

This is a relatively old article, but the planning phase is now over, they are about to break ground.

here is a newer one:

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/ene...ct-2471016.php

Texas is well situated for PV installation.

The quote from Tom Smith brings up a good point about things like PV, in that it is hard to (as the whitepaper noted above) directly compare different energy forms.

When considering things like PV, in terms of comparing costs/benefits, one generally should compare PV to the highest avoided peak-usage. Comparing it directly to online coal doesn't really capture the value of the electricity that PV produces, as you need to include a time dimension to get meaningful analysis.

I think we will see a pretty strong e in PV installations in any market where you have a utility ins ute peak charges. Having "smart grids" that measure this is a good way to get the ball rolling.

This method of pricing the electricity closer to what it actually costs, adds a lot of "return" on PV for homeowners.

[RandomGuy]

I think alot of the price pressure of PV is entirely speculative..ie, we have no idea the range of import levies that can/will be implemented as the Chinese continue to undercut global production/pricing.

If the Chinese goverment wants to subsidize our electricity, that is fine by me.

Module glut will clear up eventually, and shake out the marginal manufacturers.

Tech will keep driving the costs down though.

If cheap modules drive job creation through installation here, it becomes hard to measure the impact.

Hard to say what impact any potential levies might have, other than I imagine they would be fairly temporary, and certainly not affect global trends overmuch.

[RandomGuy]

Math/Grammar Nazi: logarithmic

Noted. Web browser has no spell check. That is only one of my spelling foibles.

[TeyshaBlue]

lol...my spell checker = *Query* ((Does it look funny?))

[Drachen]

Texas is well situated for PV installation.

The quote from Tom Smith brings up a good point about things like PV, in that it is hard to (as the whitepaper noted above) directly compare different energy forms.

When considering things like PV, in terms of comparing costs/benefits, one generally should compare PV to the highest avoided peak-usage. Comparing it directly to online coal doesn't really capture the value of the electricity that PV produces, as you need to include a time dimension to get meaningful analysis.

I think we will see a pretty strong e in PV installations in any market where you have a utility ins ute peak charges. Having "smart grids" that measure this is a good way to get the ball rolling.

This method of pricing the electricity closer to what it actually costs, adds a lot of "return" on PV for homeowners.

I think CPS is in the beginning phases of this smart grid/smart meter installation. I am getting into this home manager program where you can track how much electricity your major appliances use (A/C, heater, as well as another category for "the rest") and adjust your thermostat, etc over the internet. This is something different from the free programmable thermostat deal (which I became a part of in 2008).

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You are aware that Texas is the nation's largest producer of wind energy, right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Texas

The solar farm in Austin is currently the largest operational in the US. The one being built outside SA will be the largest once finished.

[boutons_deux]

big farms are fine, but why not a few million commmercial/residential rooftops, parking lots selling juice to the utilities?

[TeyshaBlue]

big farms are fine, but why not a few million commmercial/residential rooftops, parking lots selling juice to the utilities?

Up front expense, most likely.

[Drachen]

Up front expense, most likely.

that and plus rooftop solar is being encouraged... They are doing both.

[boutons_deux]

federal tax breaks for residential solar are good until 2016

CPS energy has a limited program of rebates.

but feed-in tariffs are what really e the distributued solar implementation combined with a premium for electricity in peak hours (helps amortize the investment which itself returns most electricity in peak hours)

CPS energy gives only $0.02 credit per Kw for excess and sells it for about $0.11.

CPS would rather blow $10Bs on more nuclear deliverable in 10 years for peak loads rather than buy solar from its clients.

[Drachen]

federal tax breaks for residential solar are good until 2016

CPS energy has a limited program of rebates.

but feed-in tariffs are what really e the distributued solar implementation combined with a premium for electricity in peak hours (helps amortize the investment which itself returns most electricity in peak hours)

CPS energy gives only $0.02 credit per Kw for excess and sells it for about $0.11.

CPS would rather blow $10Bs on more nuclear deliverable in 10 years for peak loads rather than buy solar from its clients.

Don't worry, that is over.

[RandomGuy]

Building Wind Energy Can Save Midwestern Consumers $200 Per Year

In sum, this study indicates that adding more wind power to the grid in MISO [Midwestern grid-RG], above and beyond what will be enabled by the MVP portfolio, would result in the continual decline of energy market prices and lead to lower electric rates for ratepayers (relative to rates in a less windy electrical landscape)—even when you factor in the costs of additional transmission.

We draw the following conclusions from our analysis:
· Ongoing installation of wind energy across the MISO grid over the next two decades will continually and inexorably put downward price pressure on market energy prices. The price suppression effect will be material, and will be pervasive.
· Anticipating that any level of wind increase and coal retirement scenario will still lead to sufficient capacity reserves on the grid, the price effect is seen to persist and be material under a range of coal retirement / gas addition cir stances.
· If gas prices rise above the Energy Information Administration’s current Annual Energy Outlook real price projections for 2020 and 2030, the price suppression effect from wind will be greater. Similarly, this effect will be magnified under scenarios with large coal retirement, since gas-fired generation is likely to be on the margin for a greater share of market-price-setting intervals.
· Transmission increases that accompany wind additions will continue to minimize price differentials across the region (i.e., lower congestion costs) and allow the presence of wind energy to affect clearing prices throughout the MISO region.
To the extent that transmission additions allow for capture of the highest valued wind resources, lower total investment in wind capacity will be required to achieve the effects seen in this analysis.

Build infrastructure, get economic synergy.

Pretty much what governments should be in the business of doing and subsidizing, IMO.

Let China suck up coal to feed their power plants.

Export This!

As I wrote last year, almost 15 percent of all globally-traded coal ends up in China. That figure is expected to rise even further. Meanwhile, the U.S. has little interest in expanding its coal-fired power generation, but we're also the world leader in coal reserves.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where I'm going with this...

We already know that a half-billion-dollar marine terminal in Bellingham, Washington, will soon be the destination for at least nine coal-filled freight trains that'll run back and forth daily from Wyoming and Montana. And while there is certainly plenty of opposition, I fully expect to see this thing go through.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/6069...-opportunities

New Chinese demand will increase Powder River basin coal demand.

US coal plants will be facing new compe ion from Chinese consumers of electricity, (China gets roughly 80% or so of its power from coal, BTW), just as US consumers of oil are facing a bidding war with their Chinese counterparts already.

There are articles about brownouts in China, despite the frenetic pace of power plant contruction.

This trend of increasing Chinese coal demand will continue. To some extent they can get some of their demand from Mongolia, but they will continue to import it from all over.

Haven't even gotten to India and Africa yet, BTW.

[RandomGuy]

Up front expense, most likely.

Until you get leasing companies that will build it at no cost to the owner, which is happening already.

When you build a new plant, you lock yourself into a fuel source for 30-50 years.

The Chinese are locking themselves into coal, as are the Indians to some extent.

It doesn't take a genyus to see where this is going, although I think the Chinese will have to scale back their coal plant construction markedly, when the true health costs to their national productivity start sinking in.

[TeyshaBlue]

Until you get leasing companies that will build it at no cost to the owner, which is happening already.

When you build a new plant, you lock yourself into a fuel source for 30-50 years.

The Chinese are locking themselves into coal, as are the Indians to some extent.

It doesn't take a genyus to see where this is going, although I think the Chinese will have to scale back their coal plant construction markedly, when the true health costs to their national productivity start sinking in.

Stop baiting me.

Yeah, I'm encouraged by the emerging lease deals although I remain somewhat skeptical of the backend insurance liabilities. I'd would certainly be willing to look into it if it were offered in my area. My roof is friggin huge.

[CosmicCowboy]

I checked it out. As far as I am concerned financially it's a push even with the federal and CPS rebates. Plus CPS funded the first round with stimulus money and is trying to figure out how to fund a continuing program.

[Wild Cobra]

Solar is probably a good investment for the southern states, as the usage is more in line with air conditioning usage for load needs. Not so usable in places that need more heating in the winter than cooling in the summer.

Still....

I say no subsidies. No tax breaks. Let the product pay it's own way.