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  1. #126
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    Yes, the Jazz were green. Yes, the Clippers were hobbled. But so far, the San Antonio defense has been sturdy in the postseason. The Thunder, on the other hand, statistically have the worst defense of any team still alive in the playoffs. Yes, they had a relatively difficult road in the first two rounds but it's undeniable that the Thunder have been winning mostly with their offense.
    Hollinger summed this up perfectly: "(Side note: Those who argue that the Thunder's romp past the Mavs and Lakers was far more impressive need to look at the standings instead of the jerseys. Dallas and Utah had the same record; the Lakers edged the Clippers by a game.)"

    Off. Eff. rankings of the four teams: Clippers 4th, Jazz 7th, Lakers 10th, Mavericks 20th. Yes, Paul and Griffin were hobbled, the Jazz' best three-point shooter inexplicably didn't play and the Lakers' offense progressively improved as the season wore on. But still, this notion that the Thunder have been far more tested is a myth.

    Overall, I'm optimistic of San Antonio's chances. It's not going to be easy regardless of what Spurs fans who are blinded by the glare of the 18-game winning streak will tell you. It will require a number of players being at the top of their game. I haven't yet decided on my final prediction but I really do believe the Spurs can do this.

    Believe.
    Nothing says belief like having four days to make a prediction and still not making one. A little gun shy with predictions all of a sudden, aren't we? I guess it's understandable after the debacle that was this: http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197008

    I couldn't resist.

  2. #127
    fuk yo team clown Legacy's Avatar
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    ... this notion that the Thunder have been far more tested is a myth.

    Co- ing-signed.

  3. #128
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Personally, I think we'd want the Thunder to play small. The more the better. Duncan posting up Ibaka is a big-time advantage for us. He's not nearly stocky enough to guard Tim. We'd have post-ups, maybe even draw some double teams, and we could run all kinds of pick and rolls with Tony and Manu, with Green and Leonard on the corners.

    It'd be a very open, high-scoring set, but we'd have the shooting advantage and we could hide either Parker or Manu on Fisher, where as the Thunder couldn't hide him on anyone, and Westbrook, Harden and Durant would have to be engaged on every defensive possession. Our two veteran guards could take turns having a blow on defense.

    I'm a lot more worried about the Thunder when they play with Perkins and Ibaka together, tbh.
    I tend to agree. The Thunder's small ball lineup doesn't worry me too much. A trustworthy second bigman next to Duncan -- especially in crunch time -- is still somewhat of a question mark. If the Thunder go small, Pop doesn't have to worry about picking out a second bigman ... he can just go with Duncan and the four hottest perimeter players.

    It basically boils down to me being more worried about Perkins and Collison than Fisher, Cook or Sefolosha.

    timvp, realistically and statistically speaking, how much success do you think Leonard will have going up against Durant?

    It's an intriguing match-up to say the least.
    If Leonard can hold Durant to about 1.2 points per shot, he'd be doing really good work. Durant is averaging about 1.4 points per shot so far in the playoffs.

    In other words, it's fine if Durant scores 30 points as long as it takes him 25 shots to get there.

    As for what I think Leonard will do, I really have no idea. I think he'll do reasonably well but we haven't seen him tested at all yet in these playoffs. Who is the best perimeter player he's defended for long stretches so far ... the corpse of Caron Butler?

  4. #129
    Bonner/Blair can't do dat capek's Avatar
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    ^^^ Pretty sure the team we faced in the first round has that honor.
    "Spurs. Killing Whities' hopes and dreams since 4/29/12."

  5. #130
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    timvp, Do you think that Pop utilizes Blair at all this series as he's had quite the success this year against OKC? Or is that just Fool's Gold thinking that? Can he be effective after sitting a whole entire series practically?

    mando
    If everything goes to plan, I don't think Blair will play a role in this series. The Spurs need to space the court and Blair is the exact opposite of a floor-spacer.

    That said, if things start headed south for whatever reason, Blair could be an intriguing curveball. He has the bulk and strength to get inside of Ibaka and score on him pretty easily. For example, if the three-point accuracy disappears and Pop is searching for another way to put points on the board, going to Blair may be something he tries.

    Outside of that, though, Blair's role won't change.

    - How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury)
    @ ignoring the roll the Spurs are on.

    As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.
    Of course he is. It's not even close.

    This series will come down to the following:
    - can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
    - can Durant be contained?
    - can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?
    -Most of Duncan's value will be on the defensive end.

    -Durant won't be contained. The hope is he doesn't totally explode.

    -Ginobili doesn't necessarily need to match Harden's stats. For example, if they are trapping him or collapsing in the paint, it's totally acceptable for Manu to go into a facilitating role that doesn't involve much scoring.

  6. #131
    Mr. Dignity Solid D's Avatar
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    Most intriguing matchup for me is the leadership of the sixth men: Manu Ginobili and Kimbo Slice Harden. How will those minutes impact each game?

  7. #132
    hope and change
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    Of course he is. It's not even close.
    playoff on court / off court stats beg to differ, significantly

  8. #133
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    timvp, do you see Brooks gambling by having Harden start if they lose their first two games?
    If I'm Brooks, I probably start Cook in place of Sefolosha. That keeps Harden on the bench and then allows Sefolosha to play more of his minutes against Manu.

    Let's hope it takes Brooks a few games to figure that out.

    (BTW, OKC ultimately needing a lineup adjustment makes the first two games even more important for the Spurs. Gotta jump on them before Brooks figures out his starting lineup makes no sense against the Spurs.)

    Nothing says belief like having four days to make a prediction and still not making one.
    Patience.

    A little gun shy with predictions all of a sudden, aren't we? I guess it's understandable after the debacle that was this: http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197008

    I couldn't resist.
    That was some good ish, if I may say so myself.

  9. #134
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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    This post is so good it actually concerns me that it's on the World Wide Web and available for anyone, such as the OKC coaching staff, to read.

  10. #135
    Mr. Dignity Solid D's Avatar
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    Hollinger summed this up perfectly: "(Side note: Those who argue that the Thunder's romp past the Mavs and Lakers was far more impressive need to look at the standings instead of the jerseys. Dallas and Utah had the same record; the Lakers edged the Clippers by a game.)"
    A look at the standings and stats to compare the playoff strengths of those teams doesn't cut it with me. The playoff experience of Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and, when he was there, Artest/Peace or Dirk, Terry, Kidd and company means far more to me post-season.

  11. #136
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    Exactly. Okc beat champions.

  12. #137
    Veteran ace3g's Avatar
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  13. #138
    Veteran emanueldavidginobili's Avatar
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    This post is so good it actually concerns me that it's on the World Wide Web and available for anyone, such as the OKC coaching staff, to read.

  14. #139
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    Outstanding post. I think your point about Westbrook having to work at both ends of the floor is a huge key...I don't think he or anyone on their roster can stop Tony Parker.

    In the Clipper series, they actually did a decent job of staying in front of Parker, limiting penetration and disrupting the pick n roll with Paul, Mo Wiliams and Bledsoe...that type of personnel non existent on OKC.

  15. #140
    Believe.
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    This post is so good it actually concerns me that it's on the World Wide Web and available for anyone, such as the OKC coaching staff, to read.
    Not sure if serious tbh, there's almost nothing related to possible ajustments because there's just not much room for them.

    They can go small and start someone different at the 2. We want them to go small the way Tim's playing.

    Regarding the 2 spot, you can say Sefolosha is wasted on Green but that's only half the story because Harden's offense will be much more efficient against Manu who will have the hardest time staying in front of him the way he's playing D. Our best 2 defender is wasted on Sefolosha as well thus the whole point doesn't really make much sense to me.
    Last edited by Paranoid Pop; 05-24-2012 at 10:31 PM.

  16. #141
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    Not sure if serious tbh, there's almost nothing related to possible ajustments because there's just not much room for them.

    They can go small and start someone different at the 2. We want them to go small the way Tim's playing.

    Regarding the 2 spot, you can say Sefolosha is wasted on Green but that's only half the story because Harden's offense will be much more efficient against Manu who will have the hardest time staying in front of him the way he's playing D. Our best 2 defender is wasted on Sefolosha as well thus the whole point doesn't really make much sense to me.
    Good point. It works both ways. D. Green is a better offensive player than Sefolosha but that's not why he starts. The Spurs will probably use TP, him, and KL liberally against Westbrook.

    I find it interesting that Dirk said that they lacked playmakers against the Thunder. The Spurs basically start 4 playmakers. Then most of the guys of the bench can make plays and get their own shots.

  17. #142
    "He's Manu Ginobili." senorglory's Avatar
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    Did anyone see nytimes article which concluded, with statistical suooport, that okc loses offensive rebounding prowess when playing small lineup? Pretty heady stuff.

  18. #143
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Regarding the 2 spot, you can say Sefolosha is wasted on Green but that's only half the story because Harden's offense will be much more efficient against Manu who will have the hardest time staying in front of him the way he's playing D. Our best 2 defender is wasted on Sefolosha as well thus the whole point doesn't really make much sense to me.
    The aspect you're overlooking is that Danny Green isn't a one-dimensional defensive specialist like Sefolosha. Sefolosha is scoring 8.5 points per 40 minutes in the playoffs. Green is scoring 16.8 points per 40 minutes. There's a huge difference between these two players ... with the main difference being Green's value isn't solely tied to his defensive matchup.

    If Sefolosha is on the court with no one to defend, he's basically a less accurate version of Bruce Bowen. Add in the fact he usually plays limited minutes and it makes no sense for Brooks to start him against the Spurs. Let's hope he doesn't figure that out until later in the series.

  19. #144
    The Original G-Dawgg's Avatar
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    OKC suffers from Miami Heat syndrome.... Outside of their big 3, nobody is a real threat to put up scoring numbers... The Spurs on the other hand can have a full roster of players that could go ape- on any given night.. A big reason for this is because of how the Spurs equal opportunity system is run and how they move the ball around.

    Also most formidable teams are masterminded by an excellent coach. That is an advantage the Spurs also clearly hold. Popovich will outcoach Scotty..

    Imo depth, and coaching will be the 2 deciding factors in this series.

  20. #145
    fuk yo team clown Legacy's Avatar
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    Exactly. Okc beat champions.

    "Champions" that didn't show up.




    LMAO @ all the doubters/chicken s.

  21. #146
    Enemy of the FCC and AMA Dr. John R. Brinkley's Avatar
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    I'm excited to see what scheme Pop comes up with for defense.

    Coach Brooks...I'm still not sure what he does with this team. I'm not saying he's a bad coach, I just can't put a finger on what stamp, if any, he has put on this team other than just trying to make everyone get along. He's let Westbrook try to take over games a la Kobe for years now. I'd think a strong-minded coach would have put an end to that years ago.

    So if Pop can force Brooks to make changes, then I think that is a great start for the series, in theory, because I don't think he's had much experience having to do much coaching other than babysitting. Of course, I don't want them to be changes that actually help their team.
    Last edited by Dr. John R. Brinkley; 05-25-2012 at 07:20 AM.

  22. #147
    hasta la victoria, siempre cheguevara's Avatar
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    This was clearly NOT the same Mavs team as last year. Dont insult last years Mavs with this years Mavs. It was a COMPLETELY diff. Mavs team. Kidd is done. Dirk was hobbled. NO CHANDLER, no D inside. And no Barea to shake things up. And there is more. These were the defending champs only in name.
    who said they were? This mavs team was still better than Jazz/Injured Clips

    The Lakers... The Lakers...

    They are going to blow their team up because they are so damn slow and have absolutely no bench. I can understand you saying its not going to be as easy as other posters think. But to think Dallas and LA are any better than Utah and the Clips has no merit imo.
    once again these lakers as ty as they were would not have lost to the Jazz or injured Clips in a series.

  23. #148
    hasta la victoria, siempre cheguevara's Avatar
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    No offense, cheguevara ... but you did also 'predict' that The Grizz would come back and get rid of The Clips in the middle of that series. ... But those "injured Clips" took care of business and beat the living outta' The Grizz on their own homecourt nonetheless.

    And now... here we aaarrrree...

    Just sayin'.
    that's correct. I predicted Grizz were going to come back and win when the series was 1-3. Well my bold prediction almost came to fruition since Grizz forced a game 7. But alas shame on me. It looks like those game 7s for a team that has been fighting elimination are just impossible (see Spurs/Mavs 06)

  24. #149
    You can't argue with me. Facts's Avatar
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    Overall, I'm optimistic of San Antonio's chances. It's not going to be easy regardless of what Spurs fans who are blinded by the glare of the 18-game winning streak will tell you. It will require a number of players being at the top of their game. I haven't yet decided on my final prediction but I really do believe the Spurs can do this.

    Believe.

    .

    You lose more knowledge about the game during your morning cons utional than 99% Lakers fans will ever possess. If basketball knowledge and strategic insight were gold, there would be companies lining up to buy your septic tank.

  25. #150
    Pop took his brain back. xellos88330's Avatar
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    Valid point. I only recall Ibaka mainly paired with Blair, who I take it is fairly different on offense than Diaw. Ibaka is not a weak man defender. He's just not. Great? No. Weak? Also a no. On the flip side to your point, also keep in mind that Ibaka covers ground unlike any frontcourt player you'll see in the NBA so...he very often makes up for any defensive lapses by him or his teammates on that ability alone. Ibaka's not your primary concern here in this series, but he's a definite factor. Just as, for instance, OKC hasn't seen a PG like Parker in the playoffs this year, SA has not seen a frontcourt defensive player like Ibaka..and they will have to make adjustments accordingly.
    The Spurs have made adjustments all season long against strong closeouts. That is the main reason why Diaw is so damn effective for the Spurs. Diaw is a legitimate 3pt threat, Ibaka MUST close out on him quickly. Diaw is also a good ball handler/passer. If Ibaka closes out too quickly, Diaw will drive past him and leave him completely out of the play, and can either score himself or get an easy interior pass, or a kickout to the corner three from a collapsing defender. This also gives him great box out position on Ibaka. The play of Diaw is going to be crucial against the Thunder.

    I am not saying this is exactly how it will play out, but the Diaw/Ibaka matchup is more key to me than any other. If Diaw can break down the Thunder defense, the Thunders only interior advantage against the Spurs will be effectively compromised. Once again, this is about my opinion and idea of how things will take place. Ibaka could make me eat my , but that is why the game is played.

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