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I commend you for being that eloquent so early in the morning.
Just an exceptional write up, thoroughly enjoyed reading this.
Have a great day.
Typically at this time of year, the Spurs are on the phones trying to woo free agents while simultaneously pondering major trades. This summer, however, is different. Even after the disappointing end to the 2012 playoff run, I don't think the Spurs need to do anything drastic. In fact, I think Plan A is rather straightforward.
1. Agree with Duncan on a ballpark figure. There's no rush to hammer out specifics right this second. For example, both sides could say something around $11 million per season will be adequate and leave it at that for now.
2. Contact Boris Diaw's agent. Aggressively try to finalize an agreement. Next to Duncan, Diaw is the most important piece because without him, the Spurs would be left without a player capable at starting at power forward. Yes, Diaw has flaws but he fits and there's a chance he can be inked to a reasonable deal.
3. Figure out what it's going to take to convince Erazem Lorbek to sign. Lorbek is the next most important piece because the Spurs need a backup power forward after Matt Bonner flamed out again. Since he can only negotiate with the Spurs if he wants to come to the NBA, he's another player who might be relatively inexpensive. While there are other bigmen on the open market, Lorbek's skillset is a fit and the Spurs could wrap up negotiations quickly.
4. Allow Danny Green to set his market value. It's a little bit risky because a team may get desperate and throw a lot of money at him but that's pretty unlikely. Once the market is set, the preference from San Antonio's end would be to give him a multi-year contract starting at about $3 million. While the Spurs can be patient here, they shouldn't let it drag on too long. Eventually, a team could convince themselves that Green is worth the effort to try to steal.
5. Complete the deal with Duncan. By this time, the Spurs should have a good idea of how much they can pay him without going too far into the lux tax.
6. Select a backup point guard. Patrick Mills and Nando De Colo are the two leading options. If the Spurs have given up on Cory Joseph, signing both of those players is a possibility. The Spurs need a backup point guard but the Spurs don't need to act desperately. They have time to see what Mills is offered elsewhere, scout De Colo even closer and see if any veteran PG falls through the cracks.
If the Spurs can successfully complete the first six steps of Plan A, their depth chart would look like this:
Centers
Tim Duncan
Tiago Splitter
Power Forwards
Boris Diaw
Erazem Lorbek
Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard
Stephen Jackson
Shooting Guards
Manu Ginobili
Danny Green
Point Guards
Tony Parker
Patrick Mills (or Nando De Colo or a cheap veteran)
7. Decide what to do with Gary Neal and DeJuan Blair. Both are on cheap deals and are thus valuable to the team. The problem is that Neal may be overqualified to be the fifth guard and Blair may be overqualified to be the fifth bigman. However, given the long season, the advanced age of key players and their experience in the system, the Spurs may opt to keep both players.
8. Get rid of Matt Bonner. This is just something that has to be done. Yeah, he'd help you win regular season games but the time has come to remove him. He can't handle playoff pressure; it's indisputable at this point. Either amnesty him or salary dump him somewhere. Hypothetically the Spurs could keep him around as extreme depth but his salary is too high for such a role. Goodbye, Matty.
9. Add a project bigman. The Spurs need to make room on the roster for a project big -- preferably a center -- with some sort of athleticism. Being able to block shots and run the floor is a bonus. It'd also be nice if he is eligible to be sent to the Toros. This isn't a huge need obviously but the Spurs need this type of player somewhere in their pipeline.
10. Fill out the rest of the roster with youth and players with upside. The Spurs don't need any end of the bench veterans. Between the Big 3 and Stephen Jackson, the Spurs have the leadership and the veteran know-how.
It looks easy on paper. Let's hope it proves to be easy in real life. However, if something goes wrong, that could create a domino effect of chaos. At that point, the Spurs may have to change course and start looking elsewhere. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.
I know this question is coming: Do these moves make the Spurs a championship contender? Personally, I think they are longshots to begin with but I actually like the resulting roster this plan would create. It's deep, versatile and has a relatively high ceiling. The Spurs could go a splashier route but I think it'd be unnecessary. This plan allows the Spurs to compete while also building for the future and keeping the books clean of any toxic contracts.
In other words, the more boring this summer, the better.
I commend you for being that eloquent so early in the morning.
Just an exceptional write up, thoroughly enjoyed reading this.
Have a great day.
Nice write up LJ. Thanks
I agree with almost everything in your post. Nice work as usual.
I'm dubious about their chances to bring Lorbek over. Assuming that Diaw takes all or most of the MLE, then Lorbek would have to sign for the BAE. I just don't see him signing a 2yr/4M contract. I hope I'm wrong.
I too share that concern.
I just hope he becomes possessed
by the spirit of superior compe ion,
sure he can keep dominating scrubs
for far more money.. but there's no
light like the limelight.
Yeah, the big issue is to be able to sign both Diaw and Lorbek. If Spurs can do it, then "plan A" is a very solid plan.
If you look closely at a picture of Lorbek,
he kind of looks like an unholy combination of Jim Carrey & Kevin Spacey.
Spurs won't amnesty Bonner, and it's a shame. I'm sure if they did a team with caproom like the Raptors would bid at least 1/3rd of his pay to get him, letting the Spurs off the hook for that much.
But the Spurs would rather lose with Bonner than win without him I'm afraid.
For the other guys:
Anything over 3 a year for Green would be a mistake, but even then I wouldn't be that thrilled to see him back. He disappeared in the WCF so bad I don't even care if he's kept for 3 a year. Stephen Jackson at that age never shrank so small. I'd be fine with a 3-man wing rotation of Kawhi, Jackson, and Manu with either Neal or De Colo as the fourth. In the regular season there'd still be other bodies to throw in at the 2 (like Scrubby Josesph smallball or Denmon or whoever) for games when Manu needs rest.
I wouldn't cry too hard if Diaw left either. In the biggest games, he disappears. He did it game 6 of the WCF in 2012. He likewise disappeared for the Suns in game 6 against the Spurs in 07, he was nowhere to be found coming off the one game suspension. Can he be a nice contributor in the regular season or in non-pressure games in the playoffs? Yes. But he's non-en y if the Spurs are up against the wall when trying to win another le.
I'd like to see De Colo. Interested to see if his defense has improved.
Lorbek I'm in for, though I'm not expecting much. But if it was a choice between him and Diaw, I think I'd go for Lorbek as the devil I don't know over Boris.
Blair can leave too if he's not going to drop the 40 pounds that he's added since being drafted.
A shot in dark, but in your honest opinions..
How many points & assists do you think De Colo will
average at the end of the 2012-2013 season?
Many people thought because Rubio's numbers were
declining in Europe, that he wouldn't translate well, but
he did. Not saying De Colo is as good, but hopefully
his situation will be similar, because his numbers don't impress.
I don't understand. I thought the Spurs were going to sign Diaw and Lorbek before finalizing Duncan's contract? Doesn't that mean they'll be using their cap room to sign them, not cap exceptions?
They have no cap room. They only have exceptions.
actually i rather spend the MLE on Rashard Lewis than on Boris Diaw, if we could get him to a good form and will i think he's fit this team better and more what the team need(we could amnesty Bonner and replace him with an upgrad version), then if it still remain a possibility i would bring Erazem Lorbek from Europe.
so that will give us starting front line of Tim Duncan and Rashard Lewis and of the bench a strong combination of Tiago Splitter and Erazem Lorbek.
james anderson is insurance if green walks for more money...
Agree in general, except.
3. Predictably, since Messina was back with CSKA, they are making offers. Messina had Lorbek before and it worked out quite well.
I wouldn't be surprised if he stays in Europe.
4. 3 M /year is absolute maximum for Green.
6. Backup PG. Mills, DeColo is largely untested, and it seems to me a bit slow for the NBA pace. He needs another good year possibly with some tough Euroleague compe ion.
7. Decide what to do with Gary Neal and DeJuan Blair.
They won't move neal until the Green issue is set.
They coulnd't get a first rounder for Blair. He's cheap. He's more likely to be on board than Bonner.
8. Get rid of Matt Bonner.
This might come at a cost. I don't think amnesty, though.
General outlook is very good. Spurs will be again playing great basketball.
In the RS.
Lorbek-- Another candy ass bigman who can't rebound or block shots. This is getting to be a recurring theme. And people wonder why they struggle against physical teams. Sorry, I'll pass on the "softer" version of Splitter.3. Figure out what it's going to take to convince Erazem Lorbek to sign. Lorbek is the next most important piece because the Spurs need a backup power forward after Matt Bonner flamed out again. Since he can only negotiate with the Spurs if he wants to come to the NBA, he's another player who might be relatively inexpensive. While there are other bigmen on the open market, Lorbek's skillset is a fit and the Spurs could wrap up negotiations quickly.
The Spurs made most of their moves in odd numbered off seasons (2009 trade for Jefferson, which didn't pan out but they turned old Bowen/Oberto/Thomas into Stephen Jackson, fwiw, turning Hill into Leonard/Lorbek/Bertans (Leonard alone makes the trade worth it)).
You don't blow up a roster that was two games from the Finals. You simply get rid of the superfluous parts and weakest links.
Another well-written comprehensive summary.
I have full confidence the Spurs will accomplish the first six objectives. It's the aforementioned last four objectives that will seemingly be much harder to accomplish and that really concern me. Needless to say, it's essential that the youth movement and talent upgrades around the Big Three need to continue.
Henry Sims seems to have all these attributes.
Other than amnesty, I'd be curious to hear the Bonner-Exodus strategies.
Sounds good to me. If the Spurs pull all this off and stay healthy, there is a good chance they win a lot of games and make another deep playoff run. At this point in Duncan/Manu/Parker era that would be considered a very successful season.
I think Diaw just getting back to basketball shape will be a big upgrade. I still think Pop needs to go with a mainly a 3 big man rotation. I am not sure who's the odd man out but if it's Splitter I think they're better of trading him.
The Spurs won't even make it to the WCF with the approach of staying basically with the same core. Timvp even said this past year was the "Last stand" before the playoffs, now next year is the new Last Stand.
Other teams will be making changes and improving. Everything fell right for the Spurs getting the top seed, good playoff matchups and staying injury free and they still could not get to the finals. Could not get past the first real playoff challenger.
The same core team has not made it to the finals in 5 years.
that i would rather spend the MLE on Michael Beasley, Ersan Ilyasova or Nicolas Batum.
If they can pull those moves I don't really even care if they can be contenders or not... that would be a great roster to watch what's looking like the last year of the farewell tour...
Lmao Batum for the MLE
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