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  1. #51
    Bruce Almighty Bruno's Avatar
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    Great post. Thanks timvp.

    -On the other end of the spectrum, Splitter with Diaw just doesn’t seem to be working. In theory, it should work. In the real world, it doesn’t. Diaw is the only player who does worse with Splitter on the court. It’s a bad defensive pairing, which is somewhat predictable based on observations, but the fact that it’s also subpar offensively makes me wonder if it’s ever going to work.
    With the Diaw/Splitter pair, Spurs are only grabbing 69.7% of the defensive rebounds. It surely explained a lot of the defensive issues.

    Offensively, it's a little more complicate than that:
    Splitter/Diaw playing with Parker and/or Ginobili (367 minutes): 113.9 pts/100poss
    Splitter/Diaw playing without both Parker and Ginobili (99 minutes): 83.3 pts/100poss

    The Splitter/Diaw pair needs to be with at least one of Parker and Ginobili to be efficient offensively. Otherwise it's a disaster. It seems to be somewhat logical: Diaw and Splitter are team oriented offensive players and they need a great offensive guard to set them up.

    If we broke it down further, I’d bet the issue is a lack of defensive rebounding when Diaw is on the court.
    DRB% for Spurs bigmen pairs including Diaw:
    Diaw/Blair (93min): 80.8%
    Diaw/Duncan (506min): 75.4%
    Diaw/Bonner (64min): 71.2%
    Diaw/Splitter (466min): 69.7%

    My guess about why Diaw and Splitter struggled on the defensive boards when paired is that both are more focused on boxing out that going after the rebounds.

    -As long as I’m speaking negatively, let’s bring in Danny Green.
    A crazy stat about Green:
    +/- for Green playing with both Duncan and Parker (781 min): +188
    +/- for Green playing without the Duncan/Parker pair (428 min): -39

    The Green/Parker/Duncan trio is scoring 111.3 points while allowing 99.2 points per 100 poss. It's very comparable to what the Parker/Duncan duo is doing (111/98.5). Another stat that show Green dependence to the Parker/Duncan duo is that 53% of his field goals are assisted by either Parker or Duncan.

    Green is a strict role player and when he has to do too much either offensively or defensively, he struggles. He has to stay in his pigeonhole.

    -Truthfully, I’m amazed at Stephen Jackson’s numbers.
    +1

    Considering that I’ve now pointed out two Ginobili pairings that are bound to improve offensively, I’m starting to think that Ginobili’s numbers are just overall fluky for whatever mystical reasons.
    Ginobili offensively pairing aren't that great but you aren't helping him when comparing to last season. Ginobili eFG% was .618 last season. His second best year was 07-08 with a eFG% of .540. This season, he is at .528 which is close to his career average of .523.

    Manu had an amazing regular season last year at shooting the ball and he won't do that again. It surely hurt his pair offensive numbers. Saying that, when you look at what Manu did before last season, his pair offensive numbers should be a little higher.

    -The seventh best differential on the team belongs to Patrick Mills at +7.2. That number is driven by the fact that the Spurs have been outstanding when Mills is paired with either Parker or Ginobili. And since the sample size is nearly 190 minutes, it’s getting more and more difficult to overlook. If one were to pick a backup point guard just looking at these numbers, the obvious choice would be Mills.
    Looking at pair stats with Ginobili doesn't give a clear picture on the backup PG situation because there are lineups like Parker/Neal/Ginobili.

    The offensive ratings/defensive ratings playing with Manu playing SG are:
    Neal (148 min): 102.0/100.0
    Mills (79 min): 117.5/96.8
    De Colo (76 min): 117.2/98.1

    Sample sizes are small so it's hard to really draw conclusions but it seems that Neal at PG with Manu at SG doesn't work offensively. Mills and De Colo are about the same.

    -Coming in second to last in differential is Gary Neal at +5.3. He’s third worst offensively and fourth worst defensively, so it’s difficult to find a silver lining here. The fact the Big 3 each struggles to deal with Neal’s presence on the court is damning. Subjectively, I think he’s good depth to have around. In actuality, these numbers say the Spurs wouldn’t miss him if they opt to trade him.
    Neal has never been good in +/-.
    On his career:
    - In regular season, Spurs are +4.5 with him per 100 poss and +9.5 without him
    - In playoffs, Spurs are -9.8 with him per 100 poss and +11.1 without him.

    The bottom line with Neal is that he really hurts the defense and he doesn't help that much the offense. What he add with his individual offense is partially neglected by what he costs to the team offense.

  2. #52
    MVParker racm's Avatar
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    Green is a shooter/defender who is streaky on offense and can only defend 1s and 2s. Bigger 2s and 3s give him fits. That said his contract is still reasonable.

    Neal IMO should either be traded or only used for specific catch-and-shoot plays.

    That said the top 6 for minutes should be (in order), Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Splitter, Leonard, and Diaw. Those are the Spurs' top 6 players in terms of production.

  3. #53
    Veteran temujin's Avatar
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    Timvp, I am always impressed by the effort you put in working on these stats.

    I have 3 comments and suggestions to improve the data, plus a specific comment.

    1) As Old Scholl 44 and Obstructed View correctly remarked, some numbers might be significantly skewed because of the numerous blowouts, particulalrly for bench players. Correcting for this issue will make the numers more significant, generally speaking. Not sure how to do that, though. Perhaps one can start discounting 4th quarters in which TP and TD did not play. Arbitrary, but not absurd.

    2) With POs in mind, it'd be interesting to separate numbers obtained against winning vs losing teams. The former are likely to be more relevant. I suspect, it's still too early to have robust data, though. Probably around 60 games.

    3) The third suggestion is, admittedly, arbitrary. Always with POs in mind: given the past history of Popovich unwillingness to play bench rookies, De Colo could be taken out; same for Blair, given 2012 POs and the recent robust watching role. This could simplify 3-ways combinations.

    My comment is on players with nagging injuries, which are likely to have affected their data, Neal and Leonard. For Neal, my impression is that he is still not comptetely right.
    In that respect, Mr. Ginobili' numbers stand out. Visually, having seen every game, he has been sort of slow getting back to his normal self from 2 injuries.
    He is, perhaps, a very special case in which other players play better just because he is in there, no matter what he does.

  4. #54
    Out with the old... Obstructed_View's Avatar
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    Parker/Mills/KL/Duncan/Splitter?

  5. #55
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    Parker/Mills/KL/Duncan/Splitter?
    While the numbers support that and I kinda like it based on Mills being a great shooter/potentially decent secondary playmaker, TP/Mills only give up 84 pots per 100 possession, screams flukish small sample size.

    To me the three weakest positions are :
    - backup PG
    - starting SG
    - backup center
    in no particular order.

    Backup PG and starting SG could very much be the same guy. The main problem is that all signs point to Pop being extremely satisfied with what he has at starting SG, he didn't experiment even once since he put Green in the starting lineup last year. To me that's a big cause for concern. I'd like to see De Colo, Mills, KY, MAnu eventually get a shot at it. He tried 3 different PFs ffs.

    Backup center is weak because Splitter is not really fit to be a center anymore rebounding wise at least, but then again the problem is will Pop be willing to play Baynes significant minutes to try to fix it or not? Probably not.

  6. #56
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Great post. Thanks timvp.



    With the Diaw/Splitter pair, Spurs are only grabbing 69.7% of the defensive rebounds. It surely explained a lot of the defensive issues.

    Offensively, it's a little more complicate than that:
    Splitter/Diaw playing with Parker and/or Ginobili (367 minutes): 113.9 pts/100poss
    Splitter/Diaw playing without both Parker and Ginobili (99 minutes): 83.3 pts/100poss

    The Splitter/Diaw pair needs to be with at least one of Parker and Ginobili to be efficient offensively. Otherwise it's a disaster. It seems to be somewhat logical: Diaw and Splitter are team oriented offensive players and they need a great offensive guard to set them up.



    DRB% for Spurs bigmen pairs including Diaw:
    Diaw/Blair (93min): 80.8%
    Diaw/Duncan (506min): 75.4%
    Diaw/Bonner (64min): 71.2%
    Diaw/Splitter (466min): 69.7%

    My guess about why Diaw and Splitter struggled on the defensive boards when paired is that both are more focused on boxing out that going after the rebounds.



    A crazy stat about Green:
    +/- for Green playing with both Duncan and Parker (781 min): +188
    +/- for Green playing without the Duncan/Parker pair (428 min): -39

    The Green/Parker/Duncan trio is scoring 111.3 points while allowing 99.2 points per 100 poss. It's very comparable to what the Parker/Duncan duo is doing (111/98.5). Another stat that show Green dependence to the Parker/Duncan duo is that 53% of his field goals are assisted by either Parker or Duncan.

    Green is a strict role player and when he has to do too much either offensively or defensively, he struggles. He has to stay in his pigeonhole.



    +1



    Ginobili offensively pairing aren't that great but you aren't helping him when comparing to last season. Ginobili eFG% was .618 last season. His second best year was 07-08 with a eFG% of .540. This season, he is at .528 which is close to his career average of .523.

    Manu had an amazing regular season last year at shooting the ball and he won't do that again. It surely hurt his pair offensive numbers. Saying that, when you look at what Manu did before last season, his pair offensive numbers should be a little higher.



    Looking at pair stats with Ginobili doesn't give a clear picture on the backup PG situation because there are lineups like Parker/Neal/Ginobili.

    The offensive ratings/defensive ratings playing with Manu playing SG are:
    Neal (148 min): 102.0/100.0
    Mills (79 min): 117.5/96.8
    De Colo (76 min): 117.2/98.1

    Sample sizes are small so it's hard to really draw conclusions but it seems that Neal at PG with Manu at SG doesn't work offensively. Mills and De Colo are about the same.



    Neal has never been good in +/-.
    On his career:
    - In regular season, Spurs are +4.5 with him per 100 poss and +9.5 without him
    - In playoffs, Spurs are -9.8 with him per 100 poss and +11.1 without him.

    The bottom line with Neal is that he really hurts the defense and he doesn't help that much the offense. What he add with his individual offense is partially neglected by what he costs to the team offense.
    Good read, both you and the OP.

  7. #57
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    While the numbers support that and I kinda like it based on Mills being a great shooter/potentially decent secondary playmaker, TP/Mills only give up 84 pots per 100 possession, screams flukish small sample size.

    To me the three weakest positions are :
    - backup PG
    - starting SG
    - backup center
    in no particular order.

    Backup PG and starting SG could very much be the same guy. The main problem is that all signs point to Pop being extremely satisfied with what he has at starting SG, he didn't experiment even once since he put Green in the starting lineup last year. To me that's a big cause for concern. I'd like to see De Colo, Mills, KY, MAnu eventually get a shot at it. He tried 3 different PFs ffs.

    Backup center is weak because Splitter is not really fit to be a center anymore rebounding wise at least, but then again the problem is will Pop be willing to play Baynes significant minutes to try to fix it or not? Probably not.
    Pop knows what Manu can do. He doesn't need to experiment. Nando is as handsy as Tiago was when he came into the league. He needs time to adjust to the league. Baynes cannot play significant minutes on a team he's never practiced with, in a system he doesn't understand. He would turn the ball over any time he touched it (think Lakers where Kobe hit Howard in the back with a pass because they don't know each others' tendencies). You cannot turn a league leading record into a middle of the pack, struggling to make the cut record just to experiment with a "next year" guy, as much as you might want to. Pop has to focus on this year. He's not being graded by his ability to build a champion, but his ability to get the same few well known ticket sellers to the playoffs. Season ticket holders wouldn't be forgiving if Pop on the season just to experiment with Baynes.

  8. #58
    Believe. Dr. Robert Lee's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, a De Colo-Manu pairing simply doesn't work as well as a Manu-Patty pairing. We all know that Manu's always going to be the "ball-handler" and play maker when he's on the floor, which therefore forces De Colo to be a spot up shooter, a role that De Colo isn't confident with.
    The facts do not support this.

  9. #59
    Veteran EVAY's Avatar
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    I wonder if the apparent decline in defensive numbers when Diaw is paired with Splitter isn't a function of role assignments. When Splitter is on the floor with Duncan, he will take the defender further away from the basket and Tim will stay closer to the basket for blocks, etc.

    When Diaw is on the the floor with Splitter, he is the one taking the defender further away from the basket, and Splitter is the one closest to the basket. But Splitter is not ever going to be the blocker that Tim is, and that number figures largely into the defensive stats. Plus, Splitter is not as good at rebounding as Tim (not bad, mind you, just not as good as Tim), and Diaw is out of position for rebounding because he is so likely to be the guy on the offensive player further away from the basket.

  10. #60
    Veteran EVAY's Avatar
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    There is an article in today's local paper about how much the European players are taught a form of basketball that is pass-first rather than one-on-one ball that is the focus in the U.S.

    Thus, according to the article, DeColo, Diaw, Ginobili, etc. etc. have much better passing skills than a lot of American players and are also less likely to take lots of shots than American players. It makes sense when you think about it, and it seems to reflect the reality that we get frustrated with DeColo and Diaw not shooting enough, when in fact it is against everything they ever learned to do that.

    Think about how Pop has ridden Tony over the years to make him 'more aggressive' with the ball to get him shooting as often as he does now. When he first came here, his main job was to 'geev thee boll to Teemy', who would then make the decision about what play to run and whether or not to shoot or pass. In the last few years as Tim has gotten less physically agile than he was, and as Tony has been molded into the pg that Pop always wanted him to be, the latter role has fallen to Tony to make the decisions about where the ball is to go and who is to shoot, etc. The result has been higher assist and point numbers for Tony, and the offense running through the pg rather than through the pf. DeColo may be able to adjust to this eventually, but Diaw seems to really prefer to be the assister rather than the shooter.

  11. #61
    Believe. Brunodf's Avatar
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    I wonder if the apparent decline in defensive numbers when Diaw is paired with Splitter isn't a function of role assignments. When Splitter is on the floor with Duncan, he will take the defender further away from the basket and Tim will stay closer to the basket for blocks, etc.

    When Diaw is on the the floor with Splitter, he is the one taking the defender further away from the basket, and Splitter is the one closest to the basket. But Splitter is not ever going to be the blocker that Tim is, and that number figures largely into the defensive stats. Plus, Splitter is not as good at rebounding as Tim (not bad, mind you, just not as good as Tim), and Diaw is out of position for rebounding because he is so likely to be the guy on the offensive player further away from the basket.
    I don't think so, Bonner/Splitter is a good rebounding pair...

  12. #62
    silverblk mystix
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    Is the amazing speed with which Lord Poppy gave these two quan y minutes together just another feather in Hall of Fame Coach of Year CIA Pops NBA basketabull a en?

    Or did Holt or Holt reps finally order Popped to play the tandem?

    You just don't understand the mind of a genius coach do you? Not just anyone can be a hall of famer - and not just anyone would think of playing the only two 7 footers you have on your team - together. At the same time. On the court. In a game where height is a major advantage.

    Genius. I tell you.


    Don't hate-appreciate!

  13. #63
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    I don't think so, Bonner/Splitter is a good rebounding pair...
    I'm wondering if maybe the perimeter players aren't also part of the reason for this? Diaw's guarding the player that's further away from the basket and Splitter's playing help defense. Most of the guards off the bench can't defend anybody so Tiago steps out to stop the penetration. This takes both Diaw and Tiago away from the basket when the shot goes up. Something like that?

    Looking at the 5-man line-ups on BR, Diaw-Splitter-Jax-Neal-Gino is one of our better rebounding line-ups (sample size is hilariously small). Whereas Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter is the worst Diaw/Splitter line-up on the glass. Besides the double digit TRB% deficit, what also appears to hurt this line-up is turnovers and fouls. It's above the team average in steals, but the offense also appears to sputter a bit with this group. Lower FGA, less FTs, only outscoring opponents by 3.5. In net offense it's a full 5 points below the team average in the 48 minutes it has played. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the other team's second chance points are probably big reason for that and since this is the starting line-up without Duncan the quality of the opponent and the gap between Duncan and Diaw could be playing into this as well.

    The second worst rebounding line-up with the Diaw/Splitter pairing is De Colo-Diaw-Green-Manu-Splitter. Similar problems as the first in that this group turns the ball over and fouls at a similar rate. It also gets killed on the boards but less so than the Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter group. What saves it is that it performs on offense. Right now it's outscoring opponents by 12.5 pts in the 31 minutes it's seen the floor.

    If it's correct that Green's defense is overrated around here, it could come down to a combination of Green not providing enough resistance, Splitter and Diaw not crashing the glass, and maybe Diaw not doing enough on offense to keep the pairing afloat.

  14. #64
    Spur-taaaa TDMVPDPOY's Avatar
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    how come theres no rating for baynes paired with gary neal....

  15. #65
    GetalifewoodU Strategic's Avatar
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    how come theres no rating for baynes paired with gary neal....

    Yup, and what about Blair's pairing with Pop compared to Bud?

  16. #66
    Believe. Brunodf's Avatar
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    I'm wondering if maybe the perimeter players aren't also part of the reason for this? Diaw's guarding the player that's further away from the basket and Splitter's playing help defense. Most of the guards off the bench can't defend anybody so Tiago steps out to stop the penetration. This takes both Diaw and Tiago away from the basket when the shot goes up. Something like that?

    Looking at the 5-man line-ups on BR, Diaw-Splitter-Jax-Neal-Gino is one of our better rebounding line-ups (sample size is hilariously small). Whereas Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter is the worst Diaw/Splitter line-up on the glass. Besides the double digit TRB% deficit, what also appears to hurt this line-up is turnovers and fouls. It's above the team average in steals, but the offense also appears to sputter a bit with this group. Lower FGA, less FTs, only outscoring opponents by 3.5. In net offense it's a full 5 points below the team average in the 48 minutes it has played. I'm pretty comfortable saying that the other team's second chance points are probably big reason for that and since this is the starting line-up without Duncan the quality of the opponent and the gap between Duncan and Diaw could be playing into this as well.

    The second worst rebounding line-up with the Diaw/Splitter pairing is De Colo-Diaw-Green-Manu-Splitter. Similar problems as the first in that this group turns the ball over and fouls at a similar rate. It also gets killed on the boards but less so than the Diaw-Green-KL-Parker-Splitter group. What saves it is that it performs on offense. Right now it's outscoring opponents by 12.5 pts in the 31 minutes it's seen the floor.

    If it's correct that Green's defense is overrated around here, it could come down to a combination of Green not providing enough resistance, Splitter and Diaw not crashing the glass, and maybe Diaw not doing enough on offense to keep the pairing afloat.
    Good point... I would like to see Manu/Kawhi/Jack/Diaw/Splitter lineup...

  17. #67
    Believe.
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    if you you look at http://www.basketball-reference.com/...duncati01.html you'll see that Duncan's stats differs from tables from first post. At Reference Timmy has 109 OffКеп and 94 DefRtg. But at Timvp tables Timmy has 110 and 100! I don't understand how it can be.

  18. #68
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    The facts do not support this.
    Yes, yes, they do. Did you read timvp's analysis.....?
    Last edited by Boomersgold; 01-30-2013 at 08:01 AM.

  19. #69
    Believe. Dr. Robert Lee's Avatar
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    Yes, yes, they do. Did you read timvp's analysis.....?
    No.

  20. #70
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    Then read the analysis! lol
    Last edited by Boomersgold; 01-30-2013 at 08:07 PM.

  21. #71
    Believe. Dr. Robert Lee's Avatar
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    Then read the analysis, buddy.
    No.

    You are just an Australian homer. That's okay. Your choice.

  22. #72
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    You are just an Australian homer. That's okay. Your choice.





    Mills-Manu Point Differential per 100 Possessions: 29
    De Colo-Manu Point Differential per 100 Possessions: 12.7


    Point Scored per 100 Possessions:

    Patty-Manu: 120.5
    De Colo-Manu: 109




    Point allowed per 100 Possession:
    Patty-Manu: 91.6
    De Colo-Manu: 96.3


    -The seventh best differential on the team belongs to Patrick Mills at +7.2. That number is driven by the fact that the Spurs have been outstanding when Mills is paired with either Parker or Ginobili. And since the sample size is nearly 190 minutes, it’s getting more and more difficult to overlook. If one were to pick a backup point guard just looking at these numbers, the obvious choice would be Mills. He has been great with Ginobili and Jackson, the key perimeter plays off the bench. And while his defense has been iffy (when, that is, he’s not playing with Ginobili or Jackson), his offense is the best of any guard on the team outside of Parker. It’s probably worth giving Mills more minutes to see if these trends hold up.
    I know that you're a huge De Colo fan, as huge as I am a Patty Mills fan, so I can understand why you prefer De Colo over Mills. =)

    But from timvp's analysis, it's clear that Patty Mills does much better than De Colo when played with Manu(I'm not saying that Patty Mills is the better "point guard"). A Patty-Manu pairing has better statistics than a NDC-Manu across all three of the categories provided in timvp's analysis (Point Differential per 100 Possessions, Point Scored per 100 Possessions, Point allowed per 100 Possession).
    Last edited by Boomersgold; 01-30-2013 at 07:32 PM.

  23. #73
    Believe. Dr. Robert Lee's Avatar
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    Ah, perhaps, perhaps. I am a NANDO homer. I am a NEAL HATER. So long as Neal isn't playing PG, I will be pleased. I'm not a huge Patty fan, but he's better than Hero Ball at PG.

    I do like your posts, though, in all seriousness.

  24. #74
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    Ah, perhaps, perhaps. I am a NANDO homer. I am a NEAL HATER. So long as Neal isn't playing PG, I will be pleased. I'm not a huge Patty fan, but he's better than Hero Ball at PG.

    I do like your posts, though, in all seriousness.
    Neal isn't winning many fans over with his play recently (Hero ball's great only when it works). I'd even rather see Cojo have a chance at winning the backup spot than have Neal back at point guard.

  25. #75
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    Thanks for the analysis timvp, and nice detailed response by Bruno. Great thread by all involved!

    Also, good points about how it might be improved in the future by temujin.

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