Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[stelleroseSPURS]

Am I the only person believing that they can sweep heat? haha x

[mookie2001]

Still a cop-out by timvp

it won't be an antijinx or troll job if the spurs lose this

[EVAY]

I'm not predicting in this series because I can't do it comfortably.

I fear that all Miami has to do is have LeBron attack the rim every time and either the refs will foul out our bigs, which puts us in a big hole running our offense, or else he just scores every time, which puts us in a highly pressurized position to match his scoring every possession which I don't believe will happen.

I hope that we have some defensive schemes up our sleeve that allow us to disrupt his scoring. Leonard can't contain him by himself. No one can. So we have to help on him...and that will leave others on their team open. If they miss, we win. If they don't we don't.

I am already thrilled with the Spurs this season. I just really really hope they come out on top this time, for both Timmy and Manu's sake.
And I don't care how they get it done.

[rmt]

I agree with timvp.

I don’t see the Spurs winning. Some of my thoughts:

We will find the true measure of how good/great a coach Pop is. Pop, with regards to les and contention, I feel has been overrated. The Spurs were favorites in every finals previous and had homecourt, and even some of those teams underachieved in how long it took them to win. Plus, he’s had several other teams that were better but lost to worse opponents preventing other finals appearances. , I’ve come to believe the Spurs would have lost in 03 if Dirk doesn’t get hurt. That team was an Horry rim-out from losing in round 2, and needed amazing unexpected clutch performances in game 6 of the WCF and the Finals to come from behind.

So I don’t think Pop vs. Spo is a mis-match. We’ve all seen some of Pop’s faults devastate the Spurs big-picture just as much as we’ve seen Pop’s in-game calls work brilliantly small-picture. Without homecourt, and with the worse team, I don’t think Pop is going to be winning. It’s Pop’s teams that get backdoor swept, and it’s Pop and not Phil Jackson who loses series after winning game 1.

If the Spurs pull this series out, then I could concede Pop as the best in the game, but I don’t expect that I’ll have to. Coaching the worse, underdog team without homecourt to a le this year would be his crowning achievement, but I'm not holding my breath.

What of the Budenholzer distraction? Bud has had to attend press conferences, do media rounds and radio shows, contact colleagues around the league to recruit a staff (bye-bye Chip Engelland maybe?) and talk to the few remaining Hawks players, plus the other miscellaneous items required by his new job. Where does that leave the Spurs? That leaves Brown as the only other experienced assistant on the courtside bench fully focused on the job at hand, no offense to new-to-coaching Udoka. That to me weakens Pop’s support foundation, and though it might not be damaging to the Spurs chances, I don’t see how it helps.

The Chokers can and will still choke. Bonner. Neal. I don’t trust these guys. I don’t trust Pop to get them to not choke, or to not give them the chance to choke. I sure as don’t trust Neal on defense. He falls down on defense more than anyone in the league. He will hurt the Spurs. Bonner’s sad history is no fluke, he is not to be trusted. I don’t trust Danny Green that much either on offense, but I am hopeful he can still be useful on defense so long as he doesn’t get abused ball-watching.

Why are Blair and Mills going to be active? Blair can’t defend anyone and just reaches for fouls nonstop. Mills serves no purpose either. I’d rather have Baynes and De Colo as emergencies than Blair and Mills. Or Neal for that matter.

Manu isn’t Manu anymore. It’s sad, as much as we all love him. It’s also true. Manu is an all-time great and a hall-of-famer, but I don’t think the Spurs can survive his seemingly routine 2-4 straight possession nightmare implosions against the Heat like they could in other rounds. Which Memphis game was it where in the last 2-3 minutes he had two straight AWFUL possessions that nearly gave the game away? Well, against the Heat, that won’t nearly give the game away, I’m afraid it WILL give the game away.

The Heat role players will go off. Haslem can do just as good a job nailing open mid-range jumpers as last year’s OKC team. Bosh too. Norris Cole is the type of player to go off when Parker is trying to rest in game. Allen is just the kind of player Neal loves to lose track of for open threes. And Miller is the exact player Green likes to drift from for the same.

--

But the only hope I have is Duncan and Splitter. The last week or so the media has asked, “how has Duncan been able to look this fresh?” And the answers have usually been about losing weight, or minutes restrictions, or ‘being on a mission’. But I suspect I know the real answer. The answer is that for the first time since playoffs of 05, Duncan played alongside a REAL big man who has shared the physical burden.

Sure, the Spurs won in 07 with the pair of Oberto and Elson, but after the PHX series that le would be a given. But Splitter is a REAL Center that has helped Duncan so much that it’s disgusting to think about the years wasted on smallball. Going small against the Mavs, or the later years of undersized, over-the-hill guys like Oberto and McDyess, the smallball of Finley or Udoka or Jefferson at PF, or the misbegotten seasons of Bonner or Blair. Or fat Diaw.

Splitter is why Duncan is able to be who he has been. And if the Spurs win this series, I am confident that we will look back and see that Splitter played so well that Pop couldn’t quit on him, and that his eased some weight from Duncan’s shoulders, freeing him to play like the legend he was before he had anchors tied to his legs, anchors named Bonner or Blair or McDyess or Udoka or Finley or Jefferson.

Seems like Pop is at the root of almost all your points. Keeping Tiago on the court, resisting the temptation of Bonner and small ball. For the first 2 games, I don't see why Pop can't shorten his rotation - they've had a lot of rest before game 1 and 2 days before game 2. Play only TD, TS, Diaw, TP, CJ, KL, Manu and Green, go after game 1 hard and put doubt/pressure on them. I also hope Pop's game plan is to stay home on the shooters and let Lebron have his (contested by Kwahi, of course). It's the role players bombing 3s that discourages the opponent. Lebron beating you is easier to stomach and maybe he gets tired, chokes or it causes problems with team mates (Wade, Bosh if they feel left out).

[dbreiden83080]

You gotta love ESPN the current headlines on Sportscenter are

Revenge
Lebron in the finals
Expectations for the Heat..

It's like they don't have an opponent.

[timvp]

...It'll probably be like Game 3 before they figure out he's left-handed. .

Great post; hope you're right.

[Legacy]

Am I the only person believing that they can sweep heat? haha x

No. If The Spurs had HCA and less rest time, I probably would've called a full-blown homer sweep.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

Splitters stats against the Heat when the big three and Green didn't play: 18 points, 9 rebounds

[T Park]

No hard feelings, man. 2005 was a long time ago. I KNOW I've said some stupid on here as well.... Richard Jefferson comes to mind.

Low blow to HIM

[roycrikside]

Reading through roycrikside's post, I was reminded of how Hakeem Olajuwon totally dissected David Robinson in 1995. The domination was that complete. I think this thread is how timvp's legacy will be defined now. His only hope is to suffer a mild stroke, have SpursTalk implode, and then have Tim Duncan swoop in and take over the site, while sticking around five or six years as co-owner before riding off into the sunset.

Twenty years from now, ace3g will tell a local radio station that roycrikside was 'hands down' a better poster than Tim Duncan, and then the circle will be complete.

Thanks for the compliment, but I hate that analogy. Robinson played Hakeem straight up. The Rockets doubled Robinson, which they got away with because the Spurs didn't shoot the three as well as Houston did. Part of their faulty strategy was Bob "Boner" Hill's poor coaching, but another part of it was Rodman basically being a mutinous asshat.
Moreover, Elliott choked. Spurs were up 2 points late in Game 1, with Elliott, an 80+ percent FT shooter at the line and he missed both. Next possession Big Shot Bob hit the first dagger of his incredible career and boom Spurs are in a 0-1 series hole. If they win that first game, it's a completely different story.

Really, the '95 Rockets lucked out. Both in the WCF and the NBA Finals they were down late with the other team's best FT shooter at the stripe to salt it away and both times the opponent missed both shots.

[#1spursfanNvegas]

I agree with everything Timvp said, but i think all his points are obvious to any basketball fan who follow the NBA closely. If us basketball fans can see those points, I am sure as coach Pop have seen, studied, and already made adjustments and counter-attacks on those miami heat strengths and exploit their weaknesses. I think thats where this series will all come down to, coaching. Pop's not gonna let 2012 WCF happen again. I trust in Pop and the Spurs to pull off this one!

[benefactor]

This is such a hard series to call...which is why I went with Spurs in 7. Can the Spurs put together a good enough defensive plan to keep James from killing them? Can the Heat shift into and stay in that other gear that looks like the Game 7 vs. Indy? Will Manu be Supermanu? Will the Heat role players shoot like they did last year? Will Splitter make the Heat pay for going small? It almost seems like any outcome from the Heat in 5 to the Spurs in 5 would not be surprising. Overall, I agree with those who said winning would be extra sweet but just being back in Finals is an incredible feeling regardless. There is no shame in losing James and the Heat...but there would be legendary glory in beating them.

[DarrinS]

This thread is coming through in every way I thought possible when timvp was typing it.

Heat in 3, tbh

[roycrikside]

This is such a hard series to call...which is why I went with Spurs in 7. Can the Spurs put together a good enough defensive plan to keep James from killing them? Can the Heat shift into and stay in that other gear that looks like the Game 7 vs. Indy? Will Manu be Supermanu? Will the Heat role players shoot like they did last year? Will Splitter make the Heat pay for going small? It almost seems like any outcome from the Heat in 5 to the Spurs in 5 would not be surprising. Overall, I agree with those who said winning would be extra sweet but just being back in Finals is an incredible feeling regardless. There is no shame in losing James and the Heat...but there would be legendary glory in beating them.

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.

[MR-Clutch]

Spurs in 5. If they lose it'll be in 7.

[Homeland Security]

Thanks for the compliment, but I hate that analogy. Robinson played Hakeem straight up. The Rockets doubled Robinson, which they got away with because the Spurs didn't shoot the three as well as Houston did. Part of their faulty strategy was Bob "Boner" Hill's poor coaching, but another part of it was Rodman basically being a mutinous asshat.
Moreover, Elliott choked. Spurs were up 2 points late in Game 1, with Elliott, an 80+ percent FT shooter at the line and he missed both. Next possession Big Shot Bob hit the first dagger of his incredible career and boom Spurs are in a 0-1 series hole. If they win that first game, it's a completely different story.

Really, the '95 Rockets lucked out. Both in the WCF and the NBA Finals they were down late with the other team's best FT shooter at the stripe to salt it away and both times the opponent missed both shots.

Naw, the analogy holds. Everybody is ganging up on timvp, you have GNSF representing crappy Spurs role players who can't shoot the three, you have Fabbs, silverblk mystix and co. playing the role of Bob Hill, and me as Dennis Rodman.

Not to mention how Solid D choked by reposting that thing about Phil Jackson picking the Spurs.

[benefactor]

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.

Yeah I know it hasn't happened in a long time, but it will happen again eventually and if it's going to happen this year is as good as any to pick it. The Spurs really haven't had any problem bringing less than their best on the road in these playoffs. I'd give them damn close to a 50/50 shot going into a Game 7 in Miami...especially if the match ups had worked in their favor throughout the series.

[letmk]

Unlike WCF, I don't have legit reasons to rebutt LJ's take. Just pray for the miracle.

[rmt]

Diaw better be aggressive - they'll be leaving him open since he's so reluctant to shoot.

[benefactor]

Furthermore...winning a game 7 in Miami is more likely than...say...a 37 year old Duncan still putting up per minute numbers like he did in his prime and helping anchor a defense that has gotten the Spurs back to the Finals. Might as well keep pushing the chips to the center. Seems to have worked out so far.

[Homeland Security]

Yeah I know it hasn't happened in a long time, but it will happen again eventually and if it's going to happen this year is as good as any to pick it. The Spurs really haven't had any problem bringing less than their best on the road in these playoffs. I'd give them damn close to a 50/50 shot going into a Game 7 in Miami...especially if the match ups had worked in their favor throughout the series.

That wasn't his point, probably. His point, probably, was that Spurs in 6 makes more sense than Spurs in 7, if you're picking the Spurs.

[024]

I agree with what Timvp said. This series basically boils down to Green, Bonner, and Neal's knocking down 3's on the biggest stage and Tiago taking advantage of his mismatch. The Heat will blitz Parker and the Spurs should be able to find the open man. The question is, will the open man knock down their 3's/take advantage of his mismatch or wilt in the limelight?

End game execution will also be a problem. The Spurs' offense lives and dies with Tony Parker. When the Heat switch Lebron on Parker, who else can create? If Lebron shuts down Parker, it'll basically be up to a 37 year old Duncan throwing up prayer shots. Judging from Parker's past struggles with long and athletic defenders, it is very likely Lebron or even Wade can shut him down when needed.

And defending the Heat will require flawless execution. With Lebron's elite passing ability that rivals or even surpasses the elite point guards of the game, the Spurs can't make a single rotation error. When Duncan rotates to help Leonard stop Lebron driving to the rim, you can bet Lebron will find an open Anderson or Bosh. The Spurs defense looked superb when they attacked Randolph but that's because he's a terrible passer and no one on the Grizzlies could hit a long jumper or 3. That is not the case here, the Heat are full of long range shooters and have one of the best passers in basketball delivering them the ball.

Lastly, I can see turnovers haunting this team... and I'm looking at Ginobili. If Manu continues committing his careless turnovers along with Neal and possibly a nervous Cory Joseph, Wade and Lebron will have a field day in transition. The Grizzlies never could fully capitalize on the turnovers when Tony Allen and Bayless were running the break. It looked like an abomination. But Wade and Lebron are the best in the league at converting turnovers into transition points so every turnover will hurt very badly.

[SA210]

Am I the only person believing that they can sweep heat? haha x

No, only reason I didn't pick it is bc I figure refs will screw us at least one game, and maybe Pop plays Bonner too much.

[elemento]

I agree with what Timvp said. This series basically boils down to Green, Bonner, and Neal's knocking down 3's on the biggest stage and Tiago taking advantage of his mismatch. The Heat will blitz Parker and the Spurs should be able to find the open man. The question is, will the open man knock down their 3's/take advantage of his mismatch or wilt in the limelight?

End game execution will also be a problem. The Spurs' offense lives and dies with Tony Parker. When the Heat switch Lebron on Parker, who else can create? If Lebron shuts down Parker, it'll basically be up to a 37 year old Duncan throwing up prayer shots. Judging from Parker's past struggles with long and athletic defenders, it is very likely Lebron or even Wade can shut him down when needed.

And defending the Heat will require flawless execution. With Lebron's elite passing ability that rivals or even surpasses the elite point guards of the game, the Spurs can't make a single rotation error. When Duncan rotates to help Leonard stop Lebron driving to the rim, you can bet Lebron will find an open Anderson or Bosh. The Spurs defense looked superb when they attacked Randolph but that's because he's a terrible passer and no one on the Grizzlies could hit a long jumper or 3. That is not the case here, the Heat are full of long range shooters and have one of the best passers in basketball delivering them the ball.

Lastly, I can see turnovers haunting this team... and I'm looking at Ginobili. If Manu continues committing his careless turnovers along with Neal and possibly a nervous Cory Joseph, Wade and Lebron will have a field day in transition. The Grizzlies never could fully capitalize on the turnovers when Tony Allen and Bayless were running the break. It looked like an abomination. But Wade and Lebron are the best in the league at converting turnovers into transition points so every turnover will hurt very badly.

When they put Lebron on Parker, Pop has to make an adjustment, putting Manu and taking out Green. Manu can split the creation part with Tony and he is the only player capable of doing that in our team.

I think SA will struggle to defend the Heat when they go small. The BIG 3 + Battier and Allen is a nightmare for SA to defend.

[SA210]

I don't get the logic of anyone picking Spurs in 7, tbh. While it would be great to see (and heart attack-inducing), you're basically calling for something to happen that hasn't happened in baseball since 1979 and in basketball since 1978. It's almost impossible for a road team to win the a Final game 7.

I agree, all this talk of a game 7 Spurs win is kind of ridiculous to me. If Spurs win, they gotta do it in 4-6 games. Road team in Game 7..refs will make the difference, and I don't want the Spurs in that position. If it gets to 7, I don't trust the NBA with Spurs on road in Miami. I see this as kind of like the last fight of Rocky 3. Don't let it get to the last round. No game 7. Take care of business early.