Awrright...a few thoughts:
1. I think TP is running the PnR at a better and different level than last year. Watching Indy run it against the Heat was painful. The ball handler almost always took off before the screener was even set. Moreover, the remaining 3 dudes just stood around. No motion, no cuts, no nothing. TP meanwhile has become a master at faking which way the screen is going to be.
2. The biggest factor to me is the extent to which Miami will be able to force the Spurs to play outside their comfort zone: making TP give up the ball, forcing Danny and Kawhi to drive and score, making Splitter rely on a post game, etc. I think TP is up to the task. I think Kawhi is up to the task a few times. The key will be whether the Spurs stay patient and mix things up in order to get the shots they want anyway. I was impressed how they did that against Memphis. I also liked how TP came up big against Golden State and their underrated defense, especially when Klay guarded him.
3. In that vein, I'm curious to see how they'll play Manu. Will they dare him to score instead of facilitate? I suspect they will. How will Manu respond? I'm a little concerned about his shot right now.
4. I like our chances if Miami doubles TD in the post. He's a great passer. Whereas Hibbert is n.o.t.
5. I think Danny and Kawhi combine to take Wade out of the series.
6. I think Splitter takes away Bosh's jumper.
7. I think James gets 30-35 a game. I think the Spurs will focus more on trying to prevent him shooting the long jumpers from his preferred left side of the floor.
8. I believe Battier will have a good series shooting-wise, but not defensively. I'm not so impressed with our ability right now to guard the corner 3 pointer which is his bread and butter. I think Miller and Allen will be ok but won't shoot lights out. I like our current defensive rotations much better than when we last played them.
9. Lastly, I think much of timvp's consternation stems from the horror show that was Pop's panic in last year's WCF. He subs uted in ways we hadn't seen all season. If he starts doing that, we're screwed. If he stays patient and lets Danny and Kawhi work through the tough times, I like our chances. Because there is no way we win without those two hitting timely three pointers and providing steady defense. In fact, I'd like one of those on the floor whenever Wade is in just to bottle him up. Which I think they can.
Spurs in 6.