Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[TD 21]

I would be shocked if this series doesn't go at least 6. I can't imagine the Spurs finally getting to this point only to go down in 5. Even if it becomes clear they're outmatched and not going to win the series, they'll probably find a way to will themselves to 2 wins.

[DPG21920]

I can possibly see the Spurs losing in 5, but not with how timvp comes off. He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot. That all their weaknesses will be exposed like it's Spurs v Lakers in Round 1.

They may lose, but even if it's like the MEM series where it's a sweep, it will be compe ive. The point is, while SA is not exactly INDY they do enough stuff similarly and they are overall better so if MIA doesn't dramatically improve how they played from the last round, Spurs won't make the same mistakes (turn overs, lack of offense) that INDY made.

[TD 21]

I can possibly see the Spurs losing in 5, but not with how timvp comes off. He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot. That all their weaknesses will be exposed like it's Spurs v Lakers in Round 1.

They may lose, but even if it's like the MEM series where it's a sweep, it will be compe ive. The point is, while SA is not exactly INDY they do enough stuff similarly and they are overall better so if MIA doesn't dramatically improve how they played from the last round, Spurs won't make the same mistakes (turn overs, lack of offense) that INDY made.

I mostly agree with this, other than you terming those "mistakes" on the Pacers part, when in reality they were more due to their limited talent level; specifically ball handling/passing.

[ace3g]

The one thing I get bothered about is that when the media compares the Spurs to the Pacers in terms of the height adv they might have against the Heat they only mention TD/Tiago and Hibb/West respectively for their teams; when the Spurs still have Diaw while the Pacers had Mahinmi and Hans. The drop off in PF/C depth for the Pacers is bad.

Diaw brings another dimension off the bench on both sides of the court.

[timvp]

He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot.

I've said I give the Spurs a 30% shot to win the series. That's close to Vegas/accuscore/teamranking etc.

[GaryJohnston]

Should work on your reading comprehension. The Heat proved they can win a championship by.... winning a championship against the Thunder. Who cares if the Heat faced lesser compe ion in early rounds, they proved they could beat championship contenders like the Thunder last year, which the Spurs lost to. They proved to be just as dominant this year with the 27 win streak. What can the Spurs point to? Losing to a team that the Heat beat last year? Winning a couple of series against middle of the pack playoff teams?

And I'd say the Pacers were better than any team the Spurs faced in this year's playoffs. So who is more proven? Obviously, the Heat.

Spurs would of swept the Pacers or gotten it done in 5 tbh.

And had the Heat played against the Thunder team that showed up in the WCF last year, they would of lost. But the Thunder seemed to be happy just to be there and they went cold. I couldn't believe how cold Harden went.

[wut]

I know there's a lot of jest in this thread, but seriously LJ makes completely valid and undeniable truths. It scares me tbh. Here's to hoping that Parker and Pop have a backup plan already in place for when their defense attacks Parker.

[tlongII]

I hope I'm wrong again. I hope beyond hope I'm wrong.

I don't think I've ever wanted the Spurs to win a series as much as this forthcoming series against the Heat. It would be such an amazing story of hard work, persistence, teamwork, unity and everything else sports should be about. If San Antonio wins this series, no matter what happens in future years, you could bury me the happiest sports fan on Earth.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. While watching the respective conference finals matchups, it was difficult not to fall in love with San Antonio's chances. But after taking a step back and analyzing everything, I truly think the Heat will win this series in five games.

1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers
It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related.

Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, matchup very well with Miami.

First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence.

Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs.

Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury.

On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat.

Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of matchups than anything else.

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big
Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert.

But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible.

But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago.

Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. , I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders.

So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

4. The Heat have been coasting
During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning.

Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason.

As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters
This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year.

When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals.

Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller … those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.

The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.

I don't think I need to explain how great LeBron is right now. When the best athlete in the NBA is also the best passer in the league, the best finisher and now suddenly one of the best shooters, that's a recipe for a monster. Add in his experience and his newfound maturity and it's going to take a Herculean effort to beat his team four times in a series.

Don't get me wrong, Parker is damn good. I've called him the second most dominating player in the league when he's healthy. But there's a wide gulf between first and second on that list. Current LeBron is in that class of superstar that is impossible to stop regardless of defensive gameplan. Prime Jordan, Prime Duncan and Prime Shaq are three other examples.

Parker, for as great as he has become, lacks that final trait to move him up into that rarefied air. You can slow Parker if you make that your team's No. 1 objective. You can't slow LeBron. That will, unfortunately, prove to be a gigantic difference.



Again, I pray to all that is holy and/or mighty that I'm wrong. Against the Grizzlies I proved to be dead wrong about Parker (I thought he was hurt; turned out he had the best series of his life) and Splitter (I wasn't sold with his toughness in the middle; turned out toughness wasn't an issue at all -- he was great in that regard). Hopefully I'm wrong about a couple of the above items. I would be the happiest S.O.B. on the planet if I'm wrong again.

But if the series plays out like I suspect it to, I see Heat in five. Miami wins the first two games. Spurs win Game 3 after Pop replaces Green in the starting lineup with Ginobili. Heat win Game 4 in heartbreaking fashion (for us Spurs fans) and then close out S.A. in Game 5 with their whole team hitting on all cylinders at that point.

That's my honest view. Let's hope the actual result makes me look stupid again.

I think you're right this time.

[GaryJohnston]

I can possibly see the Spurs losing in 5, but not with how timvp comes off. He makes it appear as if the Spurs stand no shot. That all their weaknesses will be exposed like it's Spurs v Lakers in Round 1.

They may lose, but even if it's like the MEM series where it's a sweep, it will be compe ive. The point is, while SA is not exactly INDY they do enough stuff similarly and they are overall better so if MIA doesn't dramatically improve how they played from the last round, Spurs won't make the same mistakes (turn overs, lack of offense) that INDY made.

I can see that too, us losing in 5 and the only way that happens is if our role players like Green, Gino, Bonner, Tiago and I'll even throw in KL just simply don't show up and have gotten cold because of the time off. Timmy, Tony and Pop will show up, we just need everyone else to like they have been.

[SenorSpur]

I'll support timvp here. People are forgetting the Spurs were gifted the finals appearance thanks to Westbrook's freak injury. This forum could very well be empty by now if the Spurs played the Thunder in the WCF. The Spurs also have yet to be tested in the playoffs. They faced a crappy Lakers in the first round full of drama and ready to implode. Then a very young and inexperienced Warriors team that gave away games in the second round. When the WCF came along, I thought the Spurs would finally be tested. But apparently, the Grizzlies inexplicably just rolled over and died. The Spurs have yet to face a championship level team and they'll meet their first one today. So it's pretty realistic to say no one knows what to expect and the Heat could very well dominate the series. The Heat proved themselves last year by taking out the Thunder and in the regular season in their 27 game win streak. They have what it takes to bring home another championship. Can we definitively say the same for the Spurs? Not really.

I couldn't disagree more. With the exception of the Fakers series, the Spurs were most certainly tested in the subsequent two rounds of the playoffs. They were shocked and knocked to mat by an upstart and youthful Golden State team. A team that, by the way, was missing one of it's best players in David Lee. The Spurs righted the ship and took the fight back to the Warriors and won the series in six. Next up, the physically-bruising Memphis Grizzlies. Obviously, they posed a very different type of matchup. Remember two games were won in overtime that could've went either way. The Spurs simply took away their strengths and capitalized on their weaknesses to oust them in four. Despite the fact that the Spurs swept them, it doesn't mean the Grizzlies were pushovers. They were a formidable opponent.

It's no accident that the Spurs are in the Finals. They've proved themselves championship-worthy along this journey and they need not apologize to anyone. Obviously, they respect the Heat, but they certainly have no reason to fear them. While the Heat lay claim to having the best player in the NBA, the Spurs can boast a team that has the best PG in the NBA, the best PF in NBA history, superior execution, the better bench and of course, the coaching edge. The Spurs big three is playing at a more cohesive level than that of the Heat. Finally, don't underestimate the will of their Parker, Duncan and Ginobili. They are undefeated in NBA Finals series and I expect them to be locked in and playing at an elite level in every game. They all know what this means. That said, I give the edge to the San Antonio. Spurs in 6.

[wut]

History will never be remembered as what teams had easy roads to the Finals or what teams played against crippled opponents....all that is remembered, is who won.

[barbacoataco]

This is like trying to predict a boxing match between two guys who are both winners, and you could make arguments either way, but when the fight starts you start to see who is stronger, or a better match-up. Once it starts it's obvious. So many analysts were picking Memphis even after the Spurs went up. By the end of the series Magic and the other talking heads were going on and on as if it was obvious from the start that the Spurs were vastly superior and destined to cruise.

I'm ready for it. Bring it. Go Spurs. Go Spurs. Basketball has a lot to do with who makes shots. Go Spurs.......

[angelbelow]

Spurs in 6

[Mugen]

It's been a weird f'n season tbh. Might as well go big and say Spurs in 5 nuggas.

[wut]

This is like trying to predict a boxing match between two guys who are both winners, and you could make arguments either way, but when the fight starts you start to see who is stronger, or a better match-up. Once it starts it's obvious. So many analysts were picking Memphis even after the Spurs went up. By the end of the series Magic and the other talking heads were going on and on as if it was obvious from the start that the Spurs were vastly superior and destined to cruise.

I'm ready for it. Bring it. Go Spurs. Go Spurs. Basketball has a lot to do with who makes shots. Go Spurs.......

I kinda agree...but I think there is another reason as well:

1) Heat have not been consistent in the playoffs.
2) Spurs looked like crap at the end of the regular season.

No one knows the true iden y of either team, which is why this just may be too close to call as you mention, until the first punches are thrown.

[Capster]

Go write a book somewhere else, seriously. Get lost! If I want to hear any other "words of wisdom" from you I'll give you a call.

[pgardn]

There are only two teams playing.

This is not a 20 horse Kentucky Derby field.

So who ever you pick... Congrats. The coin was going to fall on one of the two.

So the coin is weighted and you know this and pick the series exactly, polite golf clap for you, there are only a few permutations. You are lucky. Now, if you actually give good reasoning in picking your team and the series follows that script, it shall be noted. Otherwise it's hollow overblown luck. A truck will hit you tomorrow, or you will meet a new important person in your life soon. Fortune cookies are a to write... Right?

[superjames1992]

I hope I'm wrong again. I hope beyond hope I'm wrong.

I don't think I've ever wanted the Spurs to win a series as much as this forthcoming series against the Heat. It would be such an amazing story of hard work, persistence, teamwork, unity and everything else sports should be about. If San Antonio wins this series, no matter what happens in future years, you could bury me the happiest sports fan on Earth.

Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. While watching the respective conference finals matchups, it was difficult not to fall in love with San Antonio's chances. But after taking a step back and analyzing everything, I truly think the Heat will win this series in five games.

1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers
It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related.

Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, matchup very well with Miami.

First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence.

Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs.

Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury.

On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat.

Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of matchups than anything else.

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big
Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert.

But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible.

But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago.

Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. , I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders.

So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

4. The Heat have been coasting
During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning.

Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason.

As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters
This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year.

When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals.

Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller … those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.

The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.

I don't think I need to explain how great LeBron is right now. When the best athlete in the NBA is also the best passer in the league, the best finisher and now suddenly one of the best shooters, that's a recipe for a monster. Add in his experience and his newfound maturity and it's going to take a Herculean effort to beat his team four times in a series.

Don't get me wrong, Parker is damn good. I've called him the second most dominating player in the league when he's healthy. But there's a wide gulf between first and second on that list. Current LeBron is in that class of superstar that is impossible to stop regardless of defensive gameplan. Prime Jordan, Prime Duncan and Prime Shaq are three other examples.

Parker, for as great as he has become, lacks that final trait to move him up into that rarefied air. You can slow Parker if you make that your team's No. 1 objective. You can't slow LeBron. That will, unfortunately, prove to be a gigantic difference.



Again, I pray to all that is holy and/or mighty that I'm wrong. Against the Grizzlies I proved to be dead wrong about Parker (I thought he was hurt; turned out he had the best series of his life) and Splitter (I wasn't sold with his toughness in the middle; turned out toughness wasn't an issue at all -- he was great in that regard). Hopefully I'm wrong about a couple of the above items. I would be the happiest S.O.B. on the planet if I'm wrong again.

But if the series plays out like I suspect it to, I see Heat in five. Miami wins the first two games. Spurs win Game 3 after Pop replaces Green in the starting lineup with Ginobili. Heat win Game 4 in heartbreaking fashion (for us Spurs fans) and then close out S.A. in Game 5 with their whole team hitting on all cylinders at that point.

That's my honest view. Let's hope the actual result makes me look stupid again.

fuk yo predictions clown.






(Reference to that SJAX tweet, btw, tbh)

[100%duncan]

[Agloco]

fuk yo predictions clown.






(Reference to that SJAX tweet, btw, tbh)

Indeed. Spurs ting on timvp tbh.

Although, I'm sure he's happy about that.

[RD2191]

I did not hack timvp's account, just saying.

[silverblackfan]

Well deserved, but maybe too soon.

I for one salute the fine jinx thread.

[100%duncan]

Well deserved, but maybe too soon.

I for one salute the fine jinx thread.

It's not too soon because the Heat can't win in 5 anymore. And no, this is not a jinx thread.

[DPG21920]

Why do people keep acting like West punished MIA? He was pretty average (at best) offensively. He was a solid Bosh defender on the perimeter and does have more mobility on that end than Tiago or Tim probably (on the perimeter), but he was not an efficient nor consistent threat on offense.

Tiago plays the Hibbert role on offense somewhat (he won't score consistently like Hibbert obviously) but as long as Tim can out produce West (which he should quite easily do) the front court scoring/efficiency should hopefully be a wash. If that's the case, then the Spurs perimeter players have to be better than Indys (shooting, turnovers, ball movement) and offensively Spurs should be ok (even with a diminished PnR offense due to MIA's PnR defense).

While Hibbert may be better than Duncan at protecting the rim, I certainly don't think it's a wide margin (especially in money time like the finals) and the Spurs also have another 7 footer in Tiago to help (where INDY did not).

For every difference in INDY vs SA, I think SA can make it up in other areas. For example: Offensive rebounding. Yes, INDY is much better, but many of those extra possessions were negated by TO's. If the Spurs can cut down the TO's (which they should) that bridges the gap in some of the offensive rebounds.

Things of that nature, plus the fact SA is better, leads me to believe that SA will not lose in 5. Will they lose the series? Likely, but not in 5 and they have a solid shot a winning. Spurs will win one of the first two games IMO, likely game 1.

Lego Spurs

[HankChinaski]

I like our defense more than anything else this game. Really took the rhythm out of the heats hands. If the spurs can continue this type of ball movement and open looks it makes things difficult for the heat for duration of the series. Great game. I'll have to rewatch the game. But the team definitely corrected the mental lapses on both ends that really let the heat blow up last game.