Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[DarrinS]

They gave Westbrook fits last Finals, other than that one good game he had in Miami. I want what you want, but this will be an enormous upset if the Spurs can pull it off.

I'm just gonna have to disagree that it would be an upset, much less an "enormous" upset, but maybe you're screwing with me -- maybe the OP is too.

[Russ]

Manu and Neal will have to play out of their minds (plus those already playing well), but I think the Spurs got a shot.

Who woulda thought Dallas, of all teams, would beat these guys?

Can Duncan/Splitter play like Chandler or Hibbert? I agree that rim protection will be a big key.

But if our two can defend inside, we know they can score more than Chandler or Hibbert.

If the Spurs can frustrate LeBron, all else will flow from that. He's not unflappable according to history.

[Budkin]

Miami is a respectable and formidable opponent but you are going Waaaaay overboard with the love for them. Spurs will handle the drama queens in impressive fashion.

We have the better coach, more experienced players and (I believe) more determination to win. There's no house money here. No one will be happy with a good effort and a loss. Screw all that. The Spurs are here to win and get the job done. They are rested, healthy and prepared for what Miami will throw at them. Somewhere, deep down, the Heat players think that they'll get to this position for years to come. The Spurs know these chances are special.

If we play our best and avoid injury, we'll win. No excuses. I love that we are the underdogs in this series and I love that we are starting out on the road. Your points are valid about the match-ups but I'll put my faith in Pop and Co. coming up with an effective strategy. F*CK the cHeat.

tmtcsc with a take that is almost as good as his avatar... almost.

[timtonymanu]

tmtcsc with a take that is almost as good as his avatar... almost.

Do you still think Spurs in 5?

[spursince#99]

1 reason I don't like this forum. Pessimism is not the way to go regardless of what you feel if that team is really YOUR team.

[Splits]

my computer also says Bosh shoots over 56% vs Spurs in his career

he shot 30s vs. Indy

Time to update your database from 56% to 44%. Please update us all with your supercomputer superfriends results.

[timvp]

I'd have taken being in the Finals and having the chance that just being a participant brings. Even if the odds are 99-1. It's better than not having a chance because the Spurs had been eliminated. For whatever reason, I don't feel -- at this point -- that losing this series would be deflating or even disappointing. I hope they win, no doubt. But this season has been great and just seeing these guys back in the Finals feels like a dream.

FTH anyway.

I'm not sure how a loss would feel. In theory, we should be somewhat satisfied because the Spurs had a great season regardless of what happens in this series.

But maybe losing in the Finals brings a whole new level of hurt. Lakers fan, get in here and fill us in

Out of ALL the teams that could possibly match up with the Heat, I'd say the Spurs are the matchup they absolutely didn't want.

Spurs in 6

I do agree that the Spurs are the best matchup for the Heat out of any team in the West -- I've said that since the Harden trade. After Harden got traded to the Rockets, the Spurs peaking at the right time was the only chance for the West to beat the Heat.

[lefty]

Being trolled by Timp

[dbreiden83080]

Spurs are screwed..

LJ laying the truth on us....

[Russ]

I'm not sure how a loss would feel. In theory, we should be somewhat satisfied because the Spurs had a great season regardless of what happens in this series.

But maybe losing in the Finals brings a whole new level of hurt. Lakers fan, get in here and fill us in

If the Spurs lose, it's like none of the good in these playoffs ever happened. Erased forever.

They were always too old, too slow, we knew it all along.

[gameFACE]

I've honestly had zero expectations for a championship since 2010. But my gut instinct says it's possible. Spurs in 6. That they've reached the finals is pretty sweet.

[DarrinS]

Being trolled by Timp

This

[Spursfanfromafar]

I would agree with Timvp if the Heat are facing the Spurs of 2011-12.

Unfortunately for the Heat, they are facing the Spurs of 2012-13, a team that rotates better on defense and is more well oiled on offense - relies more on back-screens, hammers, misdirections and bigs' play than last season.

Seriously, the only area where the Spurs are clearly deficient is in defending Lebron and that too because they dont' have a backup for Kawhi.

I actually like Splitter this season than the previous one. He did a good job of bodying up and offensive rebounding when it presented itself against a team like the Grizzlies and it stands to reason that he would do the same against a weaker Heat frontline. He has timed his roll runs very well and the Heat will be worried if Battier is supposed to be the big guarding the rolls.

The Heat's biggest strength is that it will finally unleash the driving Lebron James who was mostly absent in the Pacers series. But I trust Pop in designing his help defense and Duncan to be smart enough to tackle this in the long - 6 game -run. Thats right.

Spurs in 6.

[baseline bum]

Manu and Neal will have to play out of their minds (plus those already playing well), but I think the Spurs got a shot.

Who woulda thought Dallas, of all teams, would beat these guys?

Can Duncan/Splitter play like Chandler or Hibbert? I agree that rim protection will be a big key.

But if our two can defend inside, we know they can score more than Chandler or Hibbert.

If the Spurs can frustrate LeBron, all else will flow from that. He's not unflappable according to history.

I had Dallas beating them in the 11 Finals. The 13 Heat are worlds better than the 11 Heat, who had no outside shooting other than Miller. Now they have Allen and Battier to throw in the mix, LeBron can now hit the three, and Chalmers has become a significantly better shooter too in that period.

[dbreiden83080]

I'm new to theses boards. Is this the so called "reverse jinx" and "timvp" that everyone has been talking about for the past week?

Just go with it....

[T Park]

I just don't buy the coasting thing. They looked terrible vs Milwaukee, Milwaukee was just so horrible they couldn't win. Chicago legitametly could've won their series and Indiana definitely should've won the series and IMO they were the better team. Plus the Pacers had ZERo bench. The Spurs at least have Manu, Diaw. Indiana had ZILCH. Also I don't see Parker nor Manu just disappearing like Stephenson and Hill did.

[Slutter McGee]

All are good points except for the coasting excuse. Lebron and Wade are too big of compe ors for me to buy that. They simply aren't as good a team as everybody thinks. That being said, they are still the best team in this series because of one player. Heat in 6 or 7. Duncan Parker and Manu know this is probably their last shot together. They will put up a fight.

ter McGee

[baseline bum]

I'm just gonna have to disagree that it would be an upset, much less an "enormous" upset, but maybe you're screwing with me -- maybe the OP is too.

Not really messing around. They completely destroyed Westbrook last Finals. I mean, I don't think they're going to have anywhere near that success with Parker since they actually have to play the pass with him, but their perimeter D is elite. I do think they'll have worlds of trouble with Duncan inside.

[baseline bum]

I just don't buy the coasting thing. They looked terrible vs Milwaukee, Milwaukee was just so horrible they couldn't win. Chicago legitametly could've won their series and Indiana definitely should've won the series and IMO they were the better team. Plus the Pacers had ZERo bench. The Spurs at least have Manu, Diaw. Indiana had ZILCH. Also I don't see Parker nor Manu just disappearing like Stephenson and Hill did.

People said the same thing last year and then they just murdered OKC in 4 straight after dropping Game 1.

[TheyCallMePro]

Timvp back from the dead...

Should have stayed dead tbh.

[Russ]

I had Dallas beating them in the 11 Finals. The 13 Heat are worlds better than the 11 Heat, who had no outside shooting other than Miller. Now they have Allen and Battier to throw in the mix, LeBron can now hit the three, and Chalmers has become a significantly better shooter too in that period.

But the '11 Heat had a tougher East to get thru to the Finals.

The East this year was a joke.

And the Spurs' road to Finals was equally ridiculous, never facing more than a 5 seed.

Both teams are untested up to now.

Wade is much lesser player than he was in '11 and Bosh has regressed as well (to put it nicely). Birdman is a key contributor -- what does that say?

[DarrinS]

I think this series is going to be determined by "the others". I think our 3 can match their 3 -- and I'm saying KL is part of that big 3 instead of Manu. KL has silently been a rock for us. If Manu's game emerges, that's just gravy, tbh.

[dwayne shintzius]

So timvp and his wife offers a 1k prize to a spurs fan who guesses the right exact score and in how many games then explains to all of us why he's willing to provide such a prize bc in his eyes we're done in 5. Very eloquent

[dbreiden83080]

People said the same thing last year and then they just murdered OKC in 4 straight after dropping Game 1.

And you attribute that to coasting? The Heat didn't let Boston put them in a 3-2 hole. Harden did nothing in the finals after killing us in the WCF had he showed up who knows? The Heat were 2-2 with the Pacers who had outplayed them in game 1 and 2. They were not coasting all the way till game 7. Wade is legit hurt which is putting loads of pressure on Lebron to carry it himself.. The Heat needed rest because of injuries so the incentive would be to finish teams off quick.. Not coast...

[ElNono]

I'm in the "we're playing with house money" boat... but give credit to the Spurs defense shining again since Game 3 against the dubs. When you play that kind of defense, I don't care who you're playing against, you always have a shot.

I also get the feeling both TD and Manu really understand this is likely their last realistic shot at the LOB... so I'm anxious to watch what both bring to the table, especially TD, tbh...

At this stage, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show... I obviously would rather see the Spurs win it all, but I can't be mad if they don't make it with what they've achieved this season.