Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[phxspurfan]

Absolutely not Heat in 5. I thinkt eh chances are slim that both Wade and Bosh hit 100% at the same time given their recent struggles. You don't just "turn it on." And the Spurs will come out with some great defensive schemes against Spo's offense (i.e. give it to LeBron and have him bully into the paint). , Spo reinvented his offense around the mold of the Spurs'. Coach Pop knows how to motivate his guys better as well. I can see Neal coming in and taking a charge or three against LeBron and hitting a couple big jumpers. I can see Parker passing out of the double team and Duncan hitting Js with determination, or driving into the paint with two dribbles and easily getting to the line. Who is going to stop him? Birdman? Bosh? lol.

Spurs in 6.

[rmt]

Agree with everything except that the Heat are coasting. Don't think they coasted, but for the life of me can't understand why Spo didn't double-team Hibbert earlier. If MIA plays as badly as they did vs IND, SAS has a great chance. Unfortunately, they'll smell blood being in the Finals and with regression to the mean, the shooters will be let loose.

I give SAS a 30-70 chance. They must:

1. limit turnovers
2. rebound on both glasses
3. try to stay big with 2 of TD/TS/Diaw - hopefully it will help with #2 and #5 - as little Bonner as possible as he doesn't rebound, attack the basket or pass well. Diaw must be aggressive - preferably with attacking the basket since he's so hesitant to shoot.
4. let Lebron have his - stay home on the shooters - maybe he'll get tired or choke at the end of the game.
5. they'll blitz Parker - the bigs need to be ready to attack the basket or pass to the open man.

I hope that Pop doesn't over react to them - going small, playing too much Bonner/Neal.

[phyzik]

Thats a low blow....

No hard feelings, man. 2005 was a long time ago. I KNOW I've said some stupid on here as well.... Richard Jefferson comes to mind.

[mookie2001]

Timvp you forgot about the 2-3-2 format man. And I know you know how slow Miami is in the halfcourt, totally stagnant

They average about 88 tru points per game. The only thing Miami does well is get tipped balls steals and easy dunks

parker gon be spelling Richmond

[KawhiLeonard]

The heats PnR defense will determine this Series

[elmanutres]

it really doesn't work if originally it was not a jinx thread.

but let's hope the jinx Gods don't realize the Memphis one wasn't a jinx thread

This forum is one of the most supers ious forums of all the interwebz

[crc21209]

I just don't see the Heat winning in 5. Might they take the series in 6 or 7 games? Sure. But so can the Spurs. I just don't see the Heat as the juggernaut that they were when they were on the 27 game winning streak or whatever it was. And even during the win streak they got pretty lucky with chokes by the Magic and Cavs who were both up 15-20 pts in those games that they eventually lost.

1. Bosh and Wade are big question marks in this series. Both looked horrible in the previous series. I can see Bosh bouncing back a little more and playing better, but not Wade. Wade is really hurt this time around, unlike other times where it looked like he was coasting. Sure he had a "bounce back" game in Game 7 with 21 points, but they weren't 21 dominant points that people usually expect from Wade. He had a couple put backs and fast break points. All the "Wade-like" moves that people expect from him like the crossover step back J don't fall for him anymore. He doesn't get enough lift on that knee to have a consistent jump shot.

2. The Heat bigs are good, but they're not Randolph and Gasol good. If Tiago, Tim, and Diaw could have success against the Grizzlies frontline, they'll be just fine against the likes of Bosh, Haslem, and Andersen.

3. The Spurs offense is 1000x the offense that Indiana has. Indiana's offense was pathetic. By the time they dribbled the ball up the floor, there were about 14-15 seconds left on the shot clock for most of that series. They walked the ball up the court too much and didn't push the pace, which is something the Spurs love to do. The Pacers would also take too long (about 10-7 seconds left in the shot clock) to get Hibbert the ball at times.

4. Spurs guards/wings > Pacers guards/wings. Other than Paul George, the Pacers sucked on the wings. Stephenson was complete trash and was out of control for most of the series. Hill dissapeared on the road and was turnover prone. Augustin...was horrible.

5. One of the most important factor to me is the motivation factor. Tim, Tony, and Manu know that this may be their last opportunity to win a championship together and are going to give it their all to win it. You could argue that LeBron is also motivated to win back to back les and get some "revenge" for his loss to the Spurs in 07', but I think the Spurs will have more of a "will" to win it than the Heat. LeBron was desperate to win a ring in 2010 against the Mavs and Dirk (who was also deseperate for a ring), and failed.

[Brutalis]

Hopefully the actual Spurs are not so intimidated and scared of the Heat like ST is. You guys act as if Miami is a juggernaut or some power house team. In that thought process of 90% that posted in this thread, you forgot who we are.

[rmt]

The way the schedule is set up, the first 2 games are vital. So much rest before game 1 and 2 days' rest before game 2, then every other day (when SA has their home games). Must win at least 1 of the first 2 (preferably 2), put pressure and doubt in their minds. The every other day games will be particularly hard on TD and Manu.

[afireinside20]

Are you all ing kidding me? You all call yourselves Spurs fans and your bailing on them before the series even gets underway? Don't forget that we also have Tony Parker who's been playing remarkable all throughout the playoffs. Tim Duncan who has just been great all year, in the best shape he's been in a long time. Manu Ginobili who we all know has had an up and down playoff run but I believe in this series he will step it up. Don't sleep on Kawhi either, he has a great defensive tenacity as well and gives us the strength we need against Lebron. Tiago Splitter and Duncan together will make it hard for Lebron or Wade to drive and kick it out. Plus the Spurs as a whole are just playing great basketball. Im going to say Spurs in 6. Go Spurs Go!!!!!

[callo1]

Spurs in 5

[DrSteffo]

LOL @ GNSF. Troll jinx ftw tbh.

[TE]

If Heat win, it will in no less than six games. Regardless of who wins, this series end in Miami (game 6, or 7). The Spurs won't win three straight against this juggernaut. This fact makes the first two games in Miami that much more important to the Spurs.

rofl the overconfidence up in here is ing insane...

[DespЏrado]

Heat in 4. Timvp is being too charitable with our chances. The Spurs are old as . Rely too much on a scoring point guard, a formula that has never won a championship for any team ever. The Spurs just don't have any business being in the 2013 finals. Our dreams as Spurs fans are just the pipe dream phantoms of having the ghosts of Manu, Timmy, and Tmac.

The Spurs are just this years sacrifice to the new god Lebron, the old champion trotted out like in the movie Gladiator to prop up the legacy of the new dynasty.

[KaiRMD1]

I hope you're wrong timvp

[jesterbobman]

I don't think Heat in 5 is a Sensible pick, but a lot of that is due to the structure of the finals as 2-3-2 rather than 2-2-1-1-1. It means that they'd have to win both at home and 2/3 in SA or Sweep in SA. That seems really unlikely given the teams are close in Point Differential(Heat +7.87 vs a .485 SOS Regular Season, Spurs +6.4 vs a .511 SOS), the fact that the Spurs have been playing well in the playoffs while the Heat have just struggled to beat a team that played DJ Augustin rotation minutes, and the fact the the Spurs have been healthy/are healthy, while the Heat have a series of niggling injuries. Also, playing more Kawhi/Green and no S-Jax makes us far better than our season Point differential from a player based rankings POV.

Honestly, I don't think anyone has a clue exactly how it's going to go. The Teams are really close in ability, and I wouldn't be completely shocked to see either team to win in 5. Unlikely, but not shocking.

I think Splitting the first 2, and winning 2/3 at home is quite likely. After that, we're 3-2 and as a home team, they probably have a 70% shot at winning either game, which means a 49% chance of winning both.

I'm picking the Spurs in 6, but I have no clue. I thought we were far superior to the Lakers, Warriors and Grizzlies(To an extent, Wouldn't have picked Tiago to contain Zbo so well), but I'm unsure about the Heat. LeBron is really good at Basketball.

[Ellsworth]

Pop should throw in the white flag early anytime the team is down double digits.... TMAC will work his magic - he's ain't gonna leave the Finals without that ring... there's your other shooter

[dallasmaverickslose]

Stop posting tbh.

[Bruno]

I'm also going with heat in 5 and I'm fine with Spurs losing the Finals even if, of course, I'm hoping for a le. Spurs had a great playoff run but the Heat/LeBron are just too good for them.

[in2deep]

Spurs sweep. So many drama queens here. They better not celebrate this championship with us. The real fans

[tesseractive]

I think Parker is going to be a lot harder for the Heat to trap this year than he was last year against the Thunder -- he carved Memphis to pieces when they tried to trap him and generally overpursue. Miami is more athletic and can recover faster, but Parker is incredibly fast with the ball, he reads defenses and makes decisions incredibly quickly, and he can change direction as suddenly as anyone I've ever seen play. Every player in the rotation can pass incredibly well, and as long as we can engineer the right looks, I'm confident in the shot of every player in our Top 7 except for Tiago, who doesn't really need to be the guy to stretch the defense anyway. No team in the league is better at getting the ball away from where the defensive pressure is being applied than the Spurs -- nobody.

We also need to be able to put Tim in positions where he can bring the hammer down on Bosh in the post. Other than LeBron, Bosh is the best guy they'll have on the floor most of the time for playing Duncan. and it's absolutely a mismatch. In terms of post moves, Duncan is still who Hibbert wants to be when he grows up, and we need to use him to get high percentage shots.

On defense, it will be key to see whether Battier continues his death spiral (DNP-CD in game 7 of the Pacers series) or whether he will actually need to be played tightly. In a perfect world he'll stay out of the rotation and we'll see a decent chunk of minutes for Haslem and/or Andersen, but we might just see more Allen and Miller. Miami is at it's most dangerous when they have 5 legit shooters on the floor (ok, really just 4 plus Wade), because it makes it really hard to keep Tim or Tiago patrolling the paint. The key to slowing them down will either be to force them to play big (which will be hard, but hopefully not impossible, at least for stretches), or to find at least one of their smalls that's ineffective enough that we can cheat off him. If we can't find a guy we can play off of a bit, LeBron is going to score in bunches -- both one on one and in plays like the ones where he uses Chalmers and Cole as screeners. Fortunately, Miami's old dudes have looked somewhere between streaky and actively bad.

I think the Heat do have another gear -- that's why I think this is going to be a long series. But by their very nature, I don't think they'll be able to trot it out whenever they feel like it. There will be times when Miami will look unbeatable, but I feel like the Spurs are talented enough and smart enough that there will be times when Miami will go back to that well and won't be able to overpower us even when they "flip the switch."

I still like Spurs in 7.

[hyhy]

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense
The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters.

Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them.

In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully … but obviously far from certain.

The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense?

Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life?

I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

To counter the double on hedging, Spurs can just screen the screener. The screener's defender will be at the wrong position to hedge and they cant double parker anymore. Pacers only realised PnR was so effective against Heat in the series and they couldnt do much work on it when Heat is able to close out on the roll man quick enough while still doubling Hill. Spurs should be able to overcome it if they execute properly.

[z0sa]

Our bigs are playing against Bosh, Birdman, and smalls for chrissakes. That is a huge step down from the Grizzlies and even Laker bigs. Timmy, Tiago, and Boris will all have their way if the Heat trap. If they don't make great use of that, ok we lose. But that would be strange considering all three players are rolling at a pretty high level right now. This is ignoring the fact if Parker plays at a high level the Heat have absolutely no answer.

Some may be underestimating refreshed Tim Duncan's impact on the game. While he may not be Prime Duncan, it is time to admit to yourself he is still capable of playing some of the best ball of his life. He has faced, guarded, and beaten in key moments some of today's best big men on both ends, and that is just in the last few weeks. These Heat will not be able to "simply" trap Parker and run to shooters... not when Tim Duncan and Splitter are on the court, getting wide open looks in their sweetspots against a rotating Haslem or LeBron. Including Diaw and Bonner, all of our bigs also know how to pass to the right place and at the right time. Heat can only scramble for so much of a game; Spurs simply must be effective at beating it when they apply the pressure.

And Splitter just stepped up last series, on both ends. In fact, I fully expect perhaps the most memorable series of Tiago's career coming up, provided the Spurs ball movement stays strong and we limit our silly turnovers. Undoubtedly, Pop plays small some points in this series, but he will only stick to it if Splitter sucks terribly, which I don't see happening. Spurs own the personnel to stay big the majority of the series.

[naico]

This is depressive lol. I think for a lot of people here the fear of losing, plays a huge role in calculating our chances. So we choose to be pessimistic. Make sure we don't get our hopes up too much becuz we so badly wanna win this. So although there is reasoning behind us being the clear underdog, this fear of losing adds to our expectations of losing.

[L.I.T]

Length, athleticism, talent... All skew towards the Heat. Even depth.

Heat in 6, if only because I think Spurs take 2/3 at home.