Heat in 5: My Reasoning

[jiggy_55]

Will the Spurs try to get the ball out of Lebron's hands or force him to do all the work and stay on their shooters?

[alamo50]

Spurs in 5.

[BillMc]

Spurs in 5.

+1

[polandprzem]

timvp - you are not gonna win 1000$

[DBMethos]

Hope the actual Spurs players have more confidence in themselves than I've seen here.

Miami.

[Prime Time]

Meh, if Miami clicks perfectly they could win in 5. But I'm going to give the Spurs a little more credit, I think they'll respond well to whatever Miami throws at them. If I HAD to bet on a winner, I'd go with Miami. But it's not like I'm expecting Spurs to get dominated or as if it's impossible for SA to win.
Tiago and Manu HAVE to play huge for Spurs to have a chance.. Parker's going to penetrate, Duncan's going to Duncanize, Kawhi will hustle, we know this. But Tiago/Manu give inconsistent production constantly. If those two step up, it's over. Miami will have no answer to Splitter's inside tatics (Considering they'd have to worry about Duncan as well) and Ginobili (when clicking) Is one of the most unguardable players in the league. SA would win in 5.

[Prime Time]

Also, Lol @ Coasting. It's the ing playoffs, Team's won't "coast" in that type of situation. They can step up, but you can't act as if Miami is not even trying.

[ffadicted]

[Leetonidas]

the jinx is in. let's do this

[SA210]

Was there a Spurstalk GTG neutering party that I don't know about?

[objective]

I agree with timvp.

I don’t see the Spurs winning. Some of my thoughts:

We will find the true measure of how good/great a coach Pop is. Pop, with regards to les and contention, I feel has been overrated. The Spurs were favorites in every finals previous and had homecourt, and even some of those teams underachieved in how long it took them to win. Plus, he’s had several other teams that were better but lost to worse opponents preventing other finals appearances. , I’ve come to believe the Spurs would have lost in 03 if Dirk doesn’t get hurt. That team was an Horry rim-out from losing in round 2, and needed amazing unexpected clutch performances in game 6 of the WCF and the Finals to come from behind.

So I don’t think Pop vs. Spo is a mis-match. We’ve all seen some of Pop’s faults devastate the Spurs big-picture just as much as we’ve seen Pop’s in-game calls work brilliantly small-picture. Without homecourt, and with the worse team, I don’t think Pop is going to be winning. It’s Pop’s teams that get backdoor swept, and it’s Pop and not Phil Jackson who loses series after winning game 1.

If the Spurs pull this series out, then I could concede Pop as the best in the game, but I don’t expect that I’ll have to. Coaching the worse, underdog team without homecourt to a le this year would be his crowning achievement, but I'm not holding my breath.

What of the Budenholzer distraction? Bud has had to attend press conferences, do media rounds and radio shows, contact colleagues around the league to recruit a staff (bye-bye Chip Engelland maybe?) and talk to the few remaining Hawks players, plus the other miscellaneous items required by his new job. Where does that leave the Spurs? That leaves Brown as the only other experienced assistant on the courtside bench fully focused on the job at hand, no offense to new-to-coaching Udoka. That to me weakens Pop’s support foundation, and though it might not be damaging to the Spurs chances, I don’t see how it helps.

The Chokers can and will still choke. Bonner. Neal. I don’t trust these guys. I don’t trust Pop to get them to not choke, or to not give them the chance to choke. I sure as don’t trust Neal on defense. He falls down on defense more than anyone in the league. He will hurt the Spurs. Bonner’s sad history is no fluke, he is not to be trusted. I don’t trust Danny Green that much either on offense, but I am hopeful he can still be useful on defense so long as he doesn’t get abused ball-watching.

Why are Blair and Mills going to be active? Blair can’t defend anyone and just reaches for fouls nonstop. Mills serves no purpose either. I’d rather have Baynes and De Colo as emergencies than Blair and Mills. Or Neal for that matter.

Manu isn’t Manu anymore. It’s sad, as much as we all love him. It’s also true. Manu is an all-time great and a hall-of-famer, but I don’t think the Spurs can survive his seemingly routine 2-4 straight possession nightmare implosions against the Heat like they could in other rounds. Which Memphis game was it where in the last 2-3 minutes he had two straight AWFUL possessions that nearly gave the game away? Well, against the Heat, that won’t nearly give the game away, I’m afraid it WILL give the game away.

The Heat role players will go off. Haslem can do just as good a job nailing open mid-range jumpers as last year’s OKC team. Bosh too. Norris Cole is the type of player to go off when Parker is trying to rest in game. Allen is just the kind of player Neal loves to lose track of for open threes. And Miller is the exact player Green likes to drift from for the same.

--

But the only hope I have is Duncan and Splitter. The last week or so the media has asked, “how has Duncan been able to look this fresh?” And the answers have usually been about losing weight, or minutes restrictions, or ‘being on a mission’. But I suspect I know the real answer. The answer is that for the first time since playoffs of 05, Duncan played alongside a REAL big man who has shared the physical burden.

Sure, the Spurs won in 07 with the pair of Oberto and Elson, but after the PHX series that le would be a given. But Splitter is a REAL Center that has helped Duncan so much that it’s disgusting to think about the years wasted on smallball. Going small against the Mavs, or the later years of undersized, over-the-hill guys like Oberto and McDyess, the smallball of Finley or Udoka or Jefferson at PF, or the misbegotten seasons of Bonner or Blair. Or fat Diaw.

Splitter is why Duncan is able to be who he has been. And if the Spurs win this series, I am confident that we will look back and see that Splitter played so well that Pop couldn’t quit on him, and that his eased some weight from Duncan’s shoulders, freeing him to play like the legend he was before he had anchors tied to his legs, anchors named Bonner or Blair or McDyess or Udoka or Finley or Jefferson.

[Russo21]

Hey timvp, go yourself

[benefactor]

6. The Heat have LeBron James
More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. Which players in history would you rather have on your team than 2013 LeBron? Personally, my list probably begins and ends with Michael Jordan.

He's a great player and all, but come on now. Beyond Jordan in any year, I will also take '94 Olajuwon, '03 Duncan and '00 Shaq...and it's not a hard decision at all.

[spurspokesman]

plus timvp just positioning himself to a win-win scenario

Spurs lose - he redeem himself

Spurs win - he is happy and it was all a jinx after all. move along

This

[SA210]

All this defeatist talk is sickening.

Only Pop (His Bonner/Neal love) and the refs are what can hold the Spurs back.


Spurs play their game and we'll be ok.

[DawgMilkX]

And this is the reason why i think the Spurs win, the big 3 realize this may be their last chance at a ring and ball out. Heat arent as great as everyone makes them out to be. we got this in 5 @home

[polandprzem]

btw. Miami has as much winning the le this year as Milwaukee


But seriously I hear you LJ and I know what you mean and also I know what you ment vs Memphis series.
Miami can play much better but do they really are able to?
They do have guys that likes to explode against us - haslem, Battier, Allen, Miller
They do have the best pnr D in the league - shutting down Parker = shutting down the spurs

I SAID IT LAST YEAR - that I doubt the spurs. If they can lose 4 straight they can fall against Miami this year as well. So I would like to eat my crow and keep what's left from the faith I got.

Miami went full out in game 7 and thay can provide that punch to the 1st Finals game,a nd with spurs being rusty, it might be a spurs disaster.

Manu as a starter hmm Pop tried it on practices, but IMO more needed is guy from the bench names Neal which I do not want to see vs Miami this series when he is not 100% I'd rather have Mills to play some role is punishing Heat.

How tough Splitt, Joseph, Leonard are. We gonna see. But they were tested vs Memphis good IMO.


War Spurs

ONE!

Do it

Let's go

[polandprzem]

btw2
Pop took to heart him loing 4 straight last year and I think this year he is doing a better job

[SouthernFried]

This reverse Jinx thing is just so lame.

You would have to think the world revolves around you for your opinion to matter that much.

It doesn't.

[biskvito]

The only way to beat Miami is playing D, but that's what they want because you get into foul trouble due to Sternball.

That's exactly how Miami killed Pacer's momentum with Hibbert or Hill being benched at crucial times.

[Spur|n|Austin]

This reverse Jinx thing is just so lame.

You would have to think the world revolves around you for your opinion to matter that much.

It doesn't.

To each his own man, saying that - Spurs are old, Heat in 4.

[Legacy]

This reverse Jinx thing is just so lame.

You would have to think the world revolves around you for your opinion to matter that much.

It doesn't.

I agree 100 percent.

Spurs in 6; could be 5.

[roycrikside]

Excellent, excellent. Now all we need is a scathing rebuttal from roycrikside for the prophecy to be complete.

Blarg. Dammit so much. Okay, though I doubt he'll rebut me since he didn't last time because he's a big hairy girl and I completely trashed every one of his points in the Grizzlies series (and was proven correct on like 9 of 10).

1. The Spurs can't replicate the Pacers. It's true the Spurs are much better than the Pacers. It's also true that the Pacers were close to beating the Heat. Unfortunately, those two statements aren't related. Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Indiana, even though they aren't that good, match-up very well with Miami. First of all, Roy Hibbert is in a class of his own when it comes to protecting the basket. Advanced stats point in that direction and I wholeheartedly agree. He's tall, long, strongly built, fearless, smart and quick enough. While I'd classify Duncan as the superior all-around defender because he's better out on the court and better defending opposing post players, Hibbert is better than Duncan at defending the rim. Just as importantly, LeBron James was obviously intimidated by his presence. Hibbert has about three inches and 50 pounds on Duncan. Add in the rest of the length and athleticism on the Pacers (as Frank Vogel said of his team: "We're f**king huge!") and they're a totally different beast than the Spurs. Indiana also has a lot of interchangeable defenders, which further helps in terms of dealing with the Heat. The Spurs don't have that luxury. On offense, the Pacers can hit the Heat in their two main weak spots. First, their offensive rebounding takes advantage of Miami's iffy work on the glass. Secondly, the ability to put multiple post-up threats on the court at the same time takes advantage of their lack of quality true bigman depth. The Spurs, on the other hand, don't go after offensive boards and they only have one tried and true post-up threat. Long story short, the Pacers aren't very good but their areas of strength work very well against the Heat. Thus, the susceptibility of the Heat in the ECF was more a product of match-ups than anything else.

You'll forgive me if I yawn at the match-up hokum because the Grizzlies were supposed to match-up well with the Spurs, who obliterated them in four. My personal theory on why Heat-Pacers went seven games? It's because Indiana was the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and they had a terrific starting five that played like 30 minutes a night together.

So what if Duncan is a tick worse than Hibbert defending the rim? He showed he's plenty good in that regard the previous series and Splitter is a longer (and better) second banana defensively than David West is. Since when is two not better than one? The Spurs throw 14-feet of big man at you in the paint, and while I'm not a historian by any means, I do seem to recall that working out okay in 1999 and even 2003.

It just continues to blow my mind that people --even some Spurs fans who should know better-- refuse to accept the plain facts in front of them, that this is a terrific defensive basketball team, with an absolutely dominant starting five. Their only weakness is that they don't play as many minutes together as some of the more celebrated starting units across the league, but Ginobili and Diaw aren't huge drop-offs from Green and Splitter. Leonard is just as long as Paul George, Green is more reliable than the combustible Stephenson (and again, has a better backup), and while Parker doesn't have Hill's length, he is smarter at funneling people where he wants them to go.

That's just defense, where until proven otherwise I absolutely refuse to accept that the Spurs will be any worse off than the Pacers were, holding Miami to a mid-90's average and in the low 40's in shooting percentage. The Spurs lead the league in defensive efficiency (95.4) in the postseason. The Pacers finished at 101.6. The Spurs are also second offensively, the Pacers were tenth.

2. The Heat's pick-and-roll defense will slow the Spurs' offense. The way Miami defends the pick-and-roll night in and night out is how the Thunder defended the pick-and-roll after the start of Game 3 in last season's WCF. They are going to blitz Tony Parker and force him to either play in a crowd or give the ball up. Most teams can't get away with this strategy but it works for the Heat (and worked for the Thunder) due to elite athleticism on the weakside when recovering to shooters. Plus, Miami is even better at this style of defense than OKC because they do it so often. I expect them to blitz Parker relentlessly in an effort to make someone else beat them. In the starting unit, there really isn't a pressure valve for TP. Can Danny Green or Tiago Splitter pop open and create plays after Parker gets trapped? Hopefully; but obviously far from certain.The obvious solution for the Spurs would be to pair Parker and Ginobili as often as possible. Thus, when Parker gets trapped, he gives it to Ginobili so he can create with a 4-on-3 advantage. Again, hopefully that works, but at this stage of his career does the Argentine have the wherewithal and stamina to create consistently in a seven games series against an athletic and aggressive rotating defense? Boris Diaw is another possible remedy … but will he be enough of a scoring threat for the Heat to respect his shot? If not, could Bonner come in and knock down the biggest shots of his life? I just don't have confidence in any of these scenarios.

The Spurs just played what was, by most accounts, the best defense in the league and they riddled them full of holes. They found plenty of open shots on the corners, Parker solved every puzzle they threw at him, and Ginobili found plenty of guys for easy layups.

Before addressing the fallacy of your main argument, lets go back to the fiction of the Thunder beating the Spurs with their defense. Pop has stated, ad nauseam, that it was the Spurs defense that let down in that series, not their offense. In games 4-6 they scored 103, 103, and 99 points, and that was without any contributions from Splitter and next to none from Leonard and Green.

Game 3, you throw out. The Spurs had no legs at all, the Thunder were at home and absolutely desperate at 0-2 and a 20-game winning streak had to end eventually. Game 4 was the real anomaly. Ibaka-Perkins-Collison are never going to shoot 22-of-25 again. Ever. Just a freak occurence that came at the worst time. Game 5 they just couldn't get a stop down the stretch as Harden and Durant refused to miss. That game, more than any other, was what Pop showed to the team in training camp and he wasn't pointing out the offensive failings. Game 6 was a refereeing atrocity, as blatantly 8-on-5 as any game in league history.

Ironically, L.J. has pointed out, numerous times, how the Spurs lost because the Thunder shot historically well from long-twos, the least efficient shot in basketball. Whether it was Ibaka, Durant, Harden or even Westbrook they just shot the lights out when it mattered. Now he's changing his tune and saying the offense lost the series. Good lord.

Now, that tangent aside, lets get back to main point, Spurs offense vs. Heat defense. I find it adorable that LJ linked to offensive rebounding and post play as the only way to score on the Heat when the Celtics took Miami (a better Miami, I'd argue, with a better Wade and Bosh) to seven with ZERO offensive rebounding and next to no post game.

How'd they pull off this feat? Well, they had a good defense (check), but also they had a superduperstar point guard (double check) in Rajon Rondo.

I know it seems like eight years ago when the Spurs last played a playoff game, but really the Grizzlies series wasn't that far back. I contend that the specter of a "fearsome defense with athletic lengthy defenders" will be far less of a culture shock for the Spurs than playing a great point guard who can score and pass will be for the Heat, since they haven't faced an animal like that like since March. With all due respect to George Hill, he's no Tony Parker. Tony is faster. Tony can dribble. Tony knows a few tricks. Tony also plays with a few smart guys, too.

I'd argue that the 2013 Spurs, much like the 2012 Spurs, are a superior squad to the 2012 Celtics. Parker is better than Rondo, with many more clubs in his bag. Duncan is better than Garnett. Splitter is better than Bass. I suppose they were a match-up case too?

Maybe the Heat just play close series against good teams? Could that be it? Maybe the Finals last season would've been close if Harden didn't miss a million open shots and Scott Brooks didn't play his worst player like 30 minutes a night? Just throwing it out there.

I'm not freaking out about the notion of Parker being trapped. The Spurs bigs screen too creatively for him to be limited consistently. The offense doesn't have him dribbling around for 23 seconds looking to make something happen, a sitting duck for traps. They run him off the ball around screens to mix it up. And even if he doesn't have the ball, I'll take the Spurs 4-on-3 every time. What makes their offense so great is that virtually everyone can pass, not just the point guard, and everyone is unselfish and bent about looking for the best possible shot (except for Gary Neal).

If the Heat defense are the sentinels, than the Spurs offense is Neo. It's that simple. If you watched Game 7 against the Pacers, you saw these rare sequences where every now and then Indy strung six, seven passes together and got a wide open three. Maybe you missed it because these looks were bookended by turnovers or stupid contested shots. Well the Spurs are smart enough and disciplined enough to get the very best of what the Pacers got, not as the exception but rather the norm. The Spurs will not lack for open shots against the Heat. Whether they knock them down or not will tell the tale.

3. The Spurs will find it difficult to stay big. Having Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the court is preferred when going against this team. The Pacers were able to punish the Heat by keeping David West next to Hibbert. But I don't think Pop is going to be able to go long stretches with that duo. On defense, Splitter would probably have to chase someone like Shane Battier or Mike Miller out on the perimeter. That'll be difficult -- but not impossible. But the big difference between West and Splitter is on offense. West will absolutely punish smaller defenders. Battier, for example, had no chance against him. Splitter, on the other hand, really struggles to post-up smaller defenders. I don't think I have to remind Spurs fans how Derek Fisher was able to guard him in the post a year ago -- or Klay Thompson a couple weeks ago. Is Splitter going to be able to destroy Battier? I haven't seen any evidence to be confident he will. , I'm not sure he could bully Miller. Splitter has a high center of gravity and has trouble when short players use strength against him. He's actually better against bigger, less mobile defenders. So, if Splitter can't make the Heat pay for going small by scoring in the post, it's unlikely having him roam around the perimeter chasing Battier or Miller on defense is going to be worth keeping him on the court. The result, IMO, will be Pop going more to Diaw, Bonner or small ball instead of the preferred tandem of TD and Splitter.

One, I'm not so sure Battier will even be in the rotation for the Heat. He could be cooked. Two, even if he is, I think Splitter would have an advantage over him because nobody buys Battier's flops anymore. And I definitely like Splitter down low against Miller. That's laughable. Mainly though looking at Splitter from the sole prism of back-to-the-basket post game is faulty. His meat-and-potatoes is being the roll man and against those above-mentioned 4-on-3 situations, that's where he'd clean up. Splitter scores at a pretty good percentage when he's guarded by nobody, and nobody was his most common defender vs. the Grizzlies.

Defensively if Splitter can't hang with the Heat's small lineups, I'm still more than happy to go to war with Duncan-Leonard-Green-Ginobili-Parker vs. Bosh-James-x-Wade-Chalmers. I'm not saying we have a clear edge in this scenario, but if these quintets face each other I think the Spurs can hold their own, with a couple of defensive pigeons in Miami's fivesome, just as there were with Memphis'.

4. The Heat have been coasting. During the regular season, the Heat were one of the best teams I've ever seen. It's not much of a stretch to say this was one of the top 10 best regular seasons ever by any team. They've been a relative disappointment in the playoffs but I think they realized what we all knew: the East was terrible and getting to the Finals was a formality from the beginning. Sure, they needed to try a little bit to put the Pacers away but I don't think they've even taken it out of first or second gear yet. They have a ton of room to improve entering this series -- and now that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, I expect them to play by far their best basketball of the postseason. As far as Wade and Bosh are concerned, I think they realized a LeBron-led team could make it to the Finals by himself. Where they injured? Yeah, maybe a little bit, but I think their struggles were more to do with coasting. In these Finals, I expect both at or near 100%.

Yes, the Heat were so good during the regular season that they finished 1.3 points worse in scoring margin than the Thunder and were basically the same in that stat as the Spurs before San Antonio took April off. Miami won a lot of close games against a lot of crap Eastern teams, going to the mattresses twice against Orlando, against Sacramento, against the Cavs B team, trailing by 20+ against the Celtics and Knicks, so on. , their 27-game win streak was snapped by a worse Chicago lineup than the starless Spurs defeated.

I'm not saying the Heat aren't good, but they are overrated, and if they've been coasting during the playoffs, then I fail to see when during the regular season they weren't coasting. I think Dwyane Wade is legitimately limited, that Bosh is basically Andrea Bargnani at this point (with better defense), and they have the same high-variance role player problems from game to game that every contender deals with. This notion that Wade and Bosh consciously or unconsciously gave less than their best for three rounds of playoffs and forced LeBron to do everything because they're lazy jerks is ridiculous. They gave what they had. It could just be that those guys peaked too early, which numerous Spurs teams have done these past six years. Furthermore, I don't think it's exactly the smartest strategy, to wear down your best player to the point of near exhaustion, just because you can. It would've been smarter to just win each series in four games and get the maximum amount of rest, if it was that easy, no?

You wanna see coasting? Go see the Spurs in April. Go see teams tanking for lottery balls. Maybe I'm naive, but I think playoff teams play hard.

5. Miami has the more trustworthy shooters. This series could very well come down to which team's role players are hitting their three-pointers. And looking at the respective resumes, it's difficult to not side with the Heat. They haven't shot well in the playoffs so far -- but let's not forget how well they shot in the Finals last year. When the lights got bright, they seemingly couldn't miss. For example, take Battier. Like this season, Battier struggled in the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket in 2012. But come the Finals, he shot 57% from deep. His has hit less than one-fourth of his threes so far in these playoffs but I wouldn't be surprised if he snaps out of that slump in the Finals. Battier, Ray Allen, Mike Miller; those are some of the players you'd most want taking pressure shots.The Spurs on paper have very good shooters but is anyone really confident in Bonner in the Finals? How about Kawhi Leonard after spending so much of his energy on D? Green doesn't exactly have a sparkling resume in this department. Ginobili has been streaky -- to put it kindly. Neal? Yeah, no.

In the playoffs the Spurs are shooting .362 from deep, the Heat are shooting .356. The Spurs are allowing .336, the Heat are allowing .325. Man, I hope the Spurs will be able to overcome that .005 net difference.

Ray Allen shot a whopping .350 from three (and a whopping .377 overall) in the Finals. He shot .293 from downtown in 2010 for the Celtics against the Lakers in his Finals appearance before that. He did light it up at a .524 clip in 2008 vs. LA, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the "heat of the Finals lights" don't really affect Allen and he shoots what he shoots and is subject to to whims of the small-sample gods as anyone else.

Yes, Shane Battier shot .577 from three against OKC, but is that any more telling than the .350 he shot from three in seven games vs. Boston the series before that or the .273 he shot in six games vs. the Pacers the series before that? If you want to slice the micro-splits even further, you could conclude that Battier, in Game 4 of the Finals, the most important game of the series since it was the one which tilted the series firmly in Miami's favor, shot only .250 (1-of-4) from downtown. What a choker!

Your goofiest example is Miller, who was 0-of-3 from deep in the first four games of the finals and then 7-of-8 in the last one. If you want to attach meaning to that, then you might as well retire Steve Kerr's jersey at the AT&T center.

Is one game of a sample size that much less significant than five? My guess would be that Allen, Battier, Miller, etc. will all shoot somewhere close to their career norms in the Finals, and if they don't, then it's simple dumb luck and nothing as dumb as being clutch or a choker. It's random variance. Green and Bonner are right there with them in career numbers, with Ginobili and Leonard a notch below.

More significant to me is what form guys are in lately, and I'll take the ones who have good strokes going and have fresher legs.

6. The Heat have LeBron James More often than not, the winner of a playoff series is the team with the best player. LeBron James is that man. He's not only the best basketball player in the universe, he's a top five talent ever and he's in his absolute prime. He is handsome and sexy and smart and awesome and probably the greatest person in the history of people and made of candy and I want him inside of me.

I suppose this dovetails from LeBron's comment about being "40 or 50 times better" than he was in 2007. Now far be it for me to argue math with a dude who joined the NBA straight out of high school, but as I recall, the 2007 LeBron singlehandedly put the Billups-Hamilton-'Sheed-Prince-Big Ben Pistons away and had a 48 point effort in Game 5 of that series, scoring something like 25 points in a row.

That guy was pretty good, and the Spurs contained him in the Finals.

I wonder if James, perhaps by hypnosis, completely expunged the 2011 Finals from his memory. If he's 50 times the player he was in 2007, how much better is he now than June 2011, eleventy-billion?

James ran completely roughshod over both the Celtics and the Bulls that season and then promptly crapped the bed against Dallas. He was far worse in that series than he was against the Spurs six years ago.

I'm not saying James isn't great, because he is, and that he's not the best player in this series, because he is, but this isn't, pardon the pun, the Spurs' first rodeo and Pop and co. have been pretty good in the past at containing the other team's best guy, and if not stopping him than stopping everyone else.

Look, if Miam's big three all play well, then yes, the Heat will win. If only James plays well though and Bosh & Wade are stuck at their Pacers level, then I like the Spurs very much. If Bosh & Wade are good and we get '11 Mavericks LeBron, then I also like the Spurs very much.

Maybe if both teams were going into the series in completely equal cir stances as far as rest/injuries/play-off stress, then I'd give the Heat the edge based on having the best player and home court advantage.

However, if ever the Spurs were going to pull the upset, the 2013 playoffs have so far unfolded in the perfect scenario. The Spurs have played just 14 postseason games and have been off for nine days. That's nine days for the best coach in the planet and his staff to dissect every bit of Heat film. If those guys have any weaknesses to exploit, I'm betting that Pop has discovered it and drilled his charges on it.

Meanwhile, the Heat have just endured seven grueling games vs. a very physical Pacers team that forced James to use up a bunch of his fuel tank and knocked Wade around quite a bit too. The Spurs have their rotation set and guys know their roles. They've watched so much Heat film by now that they probably could put on a Miami jersey and run any play Spoelstra calls.

The Heat rotation, by contrast, is in total flux. Neither Miller or Battier have any idea where they stand. They've had almost no time to prepare for a Spurs team that is 180 degrees different from the one they've just played. They have almost no frame of reference for them and haven't faced Ginobili in over two years. It'll probably be like Game 3 before they figure out he's left-handed.

Also, DeJuan Blair, Nando de Colo and Tracy McGrady would've been the sixth-seventh-eighth men on the Pacers, and that has to mean something.

[romsho]

Timvp- While your analysis is well reasoned, I think you've again done the same thing you did in your Memphis analysis. Simply, you've overvalued Miami (outside of LeBron of course) and undervalued the Spurs, especially a rested and healthy Spurs roster and a HOF coach with 10 days to prepare. And don't tell me it wasn't 10 days...they knew who was coming. I'm not even saying Miami won't ultimately win the series. But Miami in 5? That's not even pessimism, or being "realistic", its a failed breakdown of real strengths and weaknesses. I wish I believed you were faking this in an anti jinx sort of way. It's ok to want them to win this badly without being soft or having clouded judgement. For Godssake, sack up.

[100%duncan]

Gonna have to agree with LJ, again. Although I'm thinking Heat in 6. I think the Spurs are capable of stealing a road game and will win a home game, or lose Game 1 and 2 and win two home games.

Looking back, it was probably silly to think the Spurs would lose to Memphis, but it is not silly nor unreasonable to think Miami is going to beat the Spurs.

The Spurs really have to be playing perfect basketball to beat the Heat. I'm hoping I am dead wrong too. I really do want to see the Spurs win a 5th le, but Miami is just too much of a match-up problem for them.

100%duncan, get in here.

Sup brah. I'll be bump this and tag you and LJ again at the 3rd week of June tbh.