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  1. #51
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    You're only looking at how much Boris supposedly needs the Spurs not the other way around...
    I actually do think he needs the Spurs more than the Spurs need him. I don't think he will attract much interest in free agency, his record at Charlotte will scare off non-playoff teams with cap room, whom he wouldn't want to sign for anyway, and the other contenders only have the MLE to play with.

    I don't see how he has much leverage at all to get the $8m per year that some are predicting.

    Boris doesn't want a bigger role on a worse team, he doesn't want to be an all star. He wants to play the game his own way, and it'd be a risk for both him and the team who signs him if he moves in free agency.
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  2. #52
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    That's just ridiculous. Bet the Rockets gives him 10M and a starting job once they realize they're not getting Melo.
    You pointed out that it only takes one team to make a market for an NBA free agent, so anything is possible. I just don't see that sort of offer for Boris.

    If you'd like to make it interesting, I'd be willing to make a friendly wager on the proposition that the first year salary in Diaw's next contract is closer to 6M than to 10M.
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  3. #53
    Kiwi, Advanced Stat Fan
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    That's just ridiculous. Bet the Rockets gives him 10M and a starting job once they realize they're not getting Melo.
    I doubt that. The reality is that Boris is worth about $10m a year to the Spurs or another pass heavy team, and less than the MLE to a team with an iso heavy system/low total passing, as he doesn't play as hard (There is Atlanta stint #1 and Charlotte to tell us this). The fact that the gap exists is why the Spurs can beat compe ors offers at a price below his Spurs specific worth.

    Basically:
    Worth $10m or so to the Spurs
    Worth $5m or so to most other teams,
    Spurs can sign to $6m, get a deal that satisfies both.
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  4. #54
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    Diaw is going to be making something around 6-7 mil a year. Given his history in the league I doubt anyone offers him anything beyond the mid-level (in fact there have been reports that several GMs were weary of pursuing him even during/after the finals). On the flip-side the Parker/Diaw connection means that the Spurs aren't going to underpay and piss either of them off if they want them around the next 3-4 years. 6 mil a year would be a nice raise and allow Diaw to play on a team and teammates he is comfortable with while still giving the Spurs a bit of a discount given his versatility and skill-set.
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  5. #55
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    Just realised something for summer 2015 guys

    Leonard will likely command max money in restricted free agency, which the Spurs would match. However if the front office convinced him not to sign an offer sheet so they can go after a free agent before extending him, his cap hold will only be 250% of his previous salary which is $7.25m. That means for free agency purposes Spurs would be at (with salary estimated)...

    Parker $14m
    Splitter $8.5m
    Diaw $6m
    Green $5m
    Mills $4m
    Kawhi $7.25m
    Anderson $1m

    With a projected $66.5m cap (per Larry Coon), that would give the Spurs $20m in cap space for the summer of 2014. My salary estimates could be too high or too low, I could easily see Parker/Mills/Green/Diaw earning anywhere from $25m-$33m, I've done the above calculations assuming $29m.
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  6. #56
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    Just realised something for summer 2015 guys

    Leonard will likely command max money in restricted free agency, which the Spurs would match. However if the front office convinced him not to sign an offer sheet so they can go after a free agent before extending him, his cap hold will only be 250% of his previous salary which is $7.25m. That means for free agency purposes Spurs would be at (with salary estimated)...

    Parker $14m
    Splitter $8.5m
    Diaw $6m
    Green $5m
    Mills $4m
    Kawhi $7.25m
    Anderson $1m

    With a projected $66.5m cap (per Larry Coon), that would give the Spurs $20m in cap space for the summer of 2014. My salary estimates could be too high or too low, I could easily see Parker/Mills/Green/Diaw earning anywhere from $25m-$33m, I've done the above calculations assuming $29m.
    TD has indicated he will play for a couple more years, that would eat up about half of the $20M. Need cap holds also. You can factor in the rookie scale for LJC, then sign him for more after any free agent signings. This also assumes renouncing CoJo and that Haynes or his replacement only has a 1 year guaranteed contract, next year. Assumes we renounce Beli? We'd have to do some painful renouncing, but we could have cap space.
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  7. #57
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Just realised something for summer 2015 guys

    Leonard will likely command max money in restricted free agency, which the Spurs would match. However if the front office convinced him not to sign an offer sheet so they can go after a free agent before extending him, his cap hold will only be 250% of his previous salary which is $7.25m. That means for free agency purposes Spurs would be at (with salary estimated)...

    Parker $14m
    Splitter $8.5m
    Diaw $6m
    Green $5m
    Mills $4m
    Kawhi $7.25m
    Anderson $1m

    With a projected $66.5m cap (per Larry Coon), that would give the Spurs $20m in cap space for the summer of 2014. My salary estimates could be too high or too low, I could easily see Parker/Mills/Green/Diaw earning anywhere from $25m-$33m, I've done the above calculations assuming $29m.
    We have been talking about that scenario for months now.
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  8. #58
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    TD has indicated he will play for a couple more years, that would eat up about half of the $20M. Need cap holds also. You can factor in the rookie scale for LJC, then sign him for more after any free agent signings. This also assumes renouncing CoJo and that Haynes or his replacement only has a 1 year guaranteed contract, next year. Assumes we renounce Beli? We'd have to do some painful renouncing, but we could have cap space.
    Yeah it assumes we'd lose Baynes, Belinelli and CoJo. Of course Baynes will likely still be a minimum salary player (as will Bonner) so I think we could sign them both to 1 year deals this year and minimum deals in 2015. I doubt either will be offered more by another team.

    Really the only players I feel we'd have to give up would be Joseph and Belinelli, both of whom are expendable if it means getting a star to pair with Kawhi and Parker. We could always use the mini-MLE on one of them if we really wanted to keep them.

    In fact if we kept Bonner and Baynes on minimum salary, it will only cost us around 400k in cap space each because that is the difference between the 2-year vet minimum that counts against the cap and the rookie minimum which is used as a cap hold.

    I purposely avoided talking about cap holds because the projected salaries of our free agents could vary so much, $2.5m in cap holds is fairly irrelevant. In fact we could sign a couple of our second rounders to the rookie minimum and it would have no impact at all on our cap space.

    If we did find a way to get $20m in cap room (which is not completely out of the question), I could see a situation where Timmys signs for $10m/2yr and retires after 1, in effect getting $10m/1yr. We'd then have $15m for a marquee free agent like Gasol.

    A front line of Timmy/Gasol/Splitter/Diaw/Anderson/Kawhi. Could be incredible, but surely a pipe dream.
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  9. #59
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    We have been talking about that scenario for months now.
    I've not seen anyone talking about factoring in Kawhis cap hold, just his future salary. If anyone has, you didn't mention it last time we discussed this and I included Kawhis projected salary instead of cap hold.
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  10. #60
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    5M for TD is really too low... You're giving him the same money as Green and only one more millions than Mills, that just sounds so outrageous...

    Anyway the more I think about it, the best solution to the end of the Duncanobili era seems to be the draft... Grooming a prospect is just much more flexible, you don't need to have the right FA at the right time which is extremely hard to do, especially with Duncan and Ginobili playing possibly longer than expected...

    If you have some financial flexibily just use it to buy picks/propects... I'd take back Lin if that means we can get Capela... Same with 2015 picks as that draft is said to be loaded with bigs... Just seems like a much superior solution in a lot of ways.
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  11. #61
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    I've not seen anyone talking about factoring in Kawhis cap hold, just his future salary. If anyone has, you didn't mention it last time we discussed this and I included Kawhis projected salary instead of cap hold.
    Yes, I did. Any time I talked about waiting to re-sign Leonard, I meant it in the context of using his cap hold as opposed to his salary.

    They could save the $3-4 Million by not re-signing Mills, and they could save another $5 Million or so by waiting to re-sign Leonard and not extending him. Doing both would be the only way for the Spurs to be able to afford a vested-max contract, but even if they're aiming for a below-vested-max contract in the $15 Million range, they'll have to make some sacrifices such as continuing to keep picks in Europe and not signing any young players to multi-year deals this off-season. And even with all that, they'd have to not extend Kawhi to be able to have enough cap space if they keep Mills (and Baynes, but people forget the Spurs have a decision with him coming up as well).
    That was the original response to you on this topic (pared down, of course, but you can click the link to see the whole thing). I was assuming Kawhi would sign a below-max extension starting at around the current max. That's why the difference is $5 Million and not the $8 Million it would be if he were maxed out now.

    Some other board members and I had similar discussions of Leonard's contract in these threads and others:

    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=236258

    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=235926

    Those are just the recent ones. We've been on this since at least after the All-Star break.
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  12. #62
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    Yes, I did. Any time I talked about waiting to re-sign Leonard, I meant it in the context of using his cap hold as opposed to his salary.



    That was the original response to you on this topic (pared down, of course, but you can click the link to see the whole thing). I was assuming Kawhi would sign a below-max extension starting at around the current max. That's why the difference is $5 Million and not the $8 Million it would be if he were maxed out now.
    Ah I see, in that case then I have to say I disagree with a couple of your comments in that previous thread even more strongly than I thought lol.

    You said the only way we would be able to sign a $15m-ish deal would be to not sign young players this off season and continue to stash picks, I disagree. With the salaries I suggested in my previous post before, we'd have 7 players at around $46m.

    Even if we bring over LJC and sign our 2015 pick both at 120% of the rookie scale and keep Baynes at the minimum, that only reduces out cap space by about $2m as half their salaries would be offset due to the roster cap holds.

    That'd drop us to $17m when accounting for 2 further roster cap holds. Of course our free agents might demand higher salaries but if anything I think we will get them cheaper than I have allowed for, although that might just be wishful thinking.

    Unless Timmy and Manu come back and eat in to it, I don't see any way we have less than $15m to spend next summer.
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  13. #63
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    5M for TD is really too low... You're giving him the same money as Green and only one more millions than Mills, that just sounds so outrageous...

    Anyway the more I think about it, the best solution to the end of the Duncanobili era seems to be the draft... Grooming a prospect is just much more flexible, you don't need to have the right FA at the right time which is extremely hard to do, especially with Duncan and Ginobili playing possibly longer than expected...

    If you have some financial flexibily just use it to buy picks/propects... I'd take back Lin if that means we can get Capela... Same with 2015 picks as that draft is said to be loaded with bigs... Just seems like a much superior solution in a lot of ways.
    You're probably right that it'll be better to rebuild through the draft, but with Parker here and Kawhi hopefully moving towards being an all star player we won't get the kind of talent we need to become a legit contender through the draft without blowing it all up.

    Agreed $5m is likely too low for Duncan, but he'll be 40 in the 2016 playoffs if he comes back after next year. Let him write his own cheque, but at least let him know it's an option if there is a realistic chance of getting another all star for his last year. You could always have an understanding in place and if the Spurs fail to land anyone, give him another $10m to come back.
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  14. #64
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Ah I see, in that case then I have to say I disagree with a couple of your comments in that previous thread even more strongly than I thought lol.

    You said the only way we would be able to sign a $15m-ish deal would be to not sign young players this off season and continue to stash picks, I disagree. With the salaries I suggested in my previous post before, we'd have 7 players at around $46m.

    Even if we bring over LJC and sign our 2015 pick both at 120% of the rookie scale and keep Baynes at the minimum, that only reduces out cap space by about $2m as half their salaries would be offset due to the roster cap holds.

    That'd drop us to $17m when accounting for 2 further roster cap holds. Of course our free agents might demand higher salaries but if anything I think we will get them cheaper than I have allowed for, although that might just be wishful thinking.

    Unless Timmy and Manu come back and eat in to it, I don't see any way we have less than $15m to spend next summer.
    Again, you're assuming certain players are getting smaller deals. Baynes isn't getting the minimum, seeing as he's already been guaranteed more from his QO.

    Anyway, you have $46.5M from the seven players you listed, plus about $1.2 Million each for Jean-Charles and 2015s pick, plus $2 Million for Baynes. That's $50.5M, to which you have to add another million in cap holds. That leaves $15.1 Million in cap space. And that means there'd be on room for Bertans or any other second-rounder to be signed this season, since their salaries would have to count against 2015 cap space. Again, assuming Green and Diaw get cheap deals.

    Finally, even $17 Million is not enough cap space for a second-level-max contract. It may as well be $15M for the purposes of the conversation we were having.
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  15. #65
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    Again, you're assuming certain players are getting smaller deals. Baynes isn't getting the minimum, seeing as he's already been guaranteed more from his QO.

    Anyway, you have $46.5M from the seven players you listed, plus about $1.2 Million each for Jean-Charles and 2015s pick, plus $2 Million for Baynes. That's $50.5M, to which you have to add another million in cap holds. That leaves $15.1 Million in cap space. And that means there'd be on room for Bertans or any other second-rounder to be signed this season, since their salaries would have to count against 2015 cap space. Again, assuming Green and Diaw get cheap deals.

    Finally, even $17 Million is not enough cap space for a second-level-max contract. It may as well be $15M for the purposes of the conversation we were having.
    Baynes QO is 1.1m which is about the minimum. If he signs a deal in restricted free agency we shouldn't match it, but I doubt any team goes after him and I think he'll be unrestricted this time next year.

    We'll have to disagree on Baynes salary, but even if we do want to give him a $2m deal we could use the bi-annual exception after signing a free agent. That frees another 1.5m in your calculation.

    I'd be shocked if Green got more than $5m.
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  16. #66
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Baynes QO is 1.1m which is about the minimum. If he signs a deal in restricted free agency we shouldn't match it, but I doubt any team goes after him and I think he'll be unrestricted this time next year.

    We'll have to disagree on Baynes salary, but even if we do want to give him a $2m deal we could use the bi-annual exception after signing a free agent. That frees another 1.5m in your calculation.

    I'd be shocked if Green got more than $5m.
    You can't use the LLE and cap space on the same off-season. Also, Baynes is likely to get a new multi-year deal now rather than two one-year deals. I don't remember the Spurs ever letting a player play under his QO.
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  17. #67
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    You can't use the LLE and cap space on the same off-season. Also, Baynes is likely to get a new multi-year deal now rather than two one-year deals. I don't remember the Spurs ever letting a player play under his QO.
    Sorry I got the name mixed up, I actually meant the Room Exception. Im pretty sure the whole point of the Room exception allow teams to use cap space AND still have an exception, considering they'll have to waive all other exceptions to use said cap space.
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  18. #68
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Sorry I got the name mixed up, I actually meant the Room Exception. Im pretty sure the whole point of the Room exception allow teams to use cap space AND still have an exception, considering they'll have to waive all other exceptions to use said cap space.
    Yes, the room exception allows that. I think they'll need that for a more-important player, though.
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  19. #69
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    Yes, the room exception allows that. I think they'll need that for a more-important player, though.
    I agree we'll use it for a more important player, but at the same time I think Baynes is a minimum player. I actually like the possibility of using the Room exception for Manu if he wants to keep going until the 2016 Olympics and retire with the national team.
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  20. #70
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    Do you guys really see Baynes getting suitors? He is a great 3rd string backup C that could eventually be a backup Center in the future.

    I could see him getting something similar to what Mills got in his first contract with SA (2y a little bit above the min with the 2nd year as a PO). Even if he gets offers (which I doubt), he won't get more than BAE money and SA would probably match it.

    I'm way more interested on how/who SA will target with the MLE.
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  21. #71
    Veteran Richie's Avatar
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    Do you guys really see Baynes getting suitors? He is a great 3rd string backup C that could eventually be a backup Center in the future.

    I could see him getting something similar to what Mills got in his first contract with SA (2y a little bit above the min with the 2nd year as a PO). Even if he gets offers (which I doubt), he won't get more than BAE money and SA would probably match it.

    I'm way more interested on how/who SA will target with the MLE.
    I don't see anyone really wanting him, and I don't know why the Spurs would consider paying him anything that could jeopardise any cap space in 2015.

    I think he was tendered the qualifying offer because we want him next year, so there was no reason not to as his qualifying offer is basically the minimum. If he signs an offer sheet I think we let him go, he doesn't bring anything another minimum D-League player doesn't bring.
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  22. #72
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    Sham with updated team rosters and salaries.

    http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/spurs.jsp
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  23. #73
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    Still missing Diaw. I believe it was 8.5/8.0/7.5 with something like 3M guaranteed in year 3.

    Just saying that so people don't click the link, see that the Spurs salary is less than 63.1M, and think the Spurs somehow have cap space (and could therefore get more by dumping contracts).
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  24. #74
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    Still missing Diaw. I believe it was 8.5/8.0/7.5 with something like 3M guaranteed in year 3.

    Just saying that so people don't click the link, see that the Spurs salary is less than 63.1M, and think the Spurs somehow have cap space (and could therefore get more by dumping contracts).
    Indeed. Also, even if Diaw were already accounted for, you have to add a little more than $8 Million in exceptions even if the team renounces their ancient cap holds. Unless the Spurs dump a LOT of salary, they're no where near being under the cap.
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  25. #75
    Ridding the world of Alien Scum...Relentlessly. Man In Black's Avatar
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