Would anyone be surprised if Houston loses in the first round? I wouldn't, especially not to Golden State. The Warriors are their worst matchup. Dallas is probably one legit bigman short of being able to beat them. Memphis doesn't have the offense, and the Suns don't have the defense. Don't know who'd win if they played Portland.
I disagree, Hoop. The Rockets are just a bad matchup. Or at least they were earlier in the season. At best for Houston, Duncan versus Howard is a draw. Jones has the ability to be an X-factor, but he'll have to get mad lucky shooting. The Rockets win on the wings, but if Leonard continues to excel on offense, it will be a lot closer than Houston needs it to be. Parker versus Beverly may be comical, since Patrick is extremely overrated defensively. Lin, Asik and whomever versus Manu, Beli/Mills and Splitter comes out well if everyone stays healthy.
In short, the Rockets can win if they shooting above their heads. But the Spurs haven't peaked yet and still look like a buzzsaw. If the Spurs have home court, they could well sweep Houston, since I think they'll give up if they go down 2-0.