US vs Russia: Ukraine fiasco

[Winehole23]

You're going to have your wish though, Obama cannot and will not do anything about the threat of Russian expansion. He isn't anything close to what we need as a leader.

Paul Saunders takes aim at five of the most abused words and phrases in foreign policy debate. Here he rejects “isolationism”:

What proponents of an activist (as opposed to a necessarily active) foreign policy are trying to conceal is how they have thoroughly warped the definition of another word—leadership—to make it nearly synonymous with the use of force. Thus, they argue, America is a leader when it is prepared to use force and is isolationist when it isn’t. Fixing U.S. foreign policy requires not only dispensing with theatrical critiques of isolationist straw men, but building a sophisticated understanding of international leadership in its diverse forms.

I would add that the abuse of “leadership” as a concept is in some ways even more obnoxious and misleading than the reliance on the “isolationist” slur. It’s true that hawks typically assume that real “leadership” requires the use of force or at least the threat to use force, but it can also function as a generic euphemism for U.S. hegemony. In this usage, there is really only one kind of international leadership that qualifies, and this is one in which the U.S. is dominant, preeminent, and preoccupied with policing the globe. This tends to view leadership more as an exercise in giving orders and dictating terms.


The word also serves as an all-purpose, nebulous placeholder as something that can be demanded and whose absence can be lamented without having to make a coherent argument. Calling for “more leadership” can be a way to demand an aggressive and militarized policy without owning up to what one is demanding, or it can be a way to criticize existing policy decisions without having to explain what ought to be done instead. As with its ugly cousin “resolve,” one can always get away with insisting that a particular president isn’t showing enough “leadership” in the world, because there is no way to measure these things and no way for the complaint be remedied. Because it is so ill-defined and frequently abused, it can be applied to every issue without even having to think about the specific details. “Leadership” is always the correct response, and “leadership” can’t fail, because it means everything and nothing at the same time.

http://www.theamericanconservative.c...p-and-resolve/

[RandomGuy]

So how big of a deal is this really? Its all over cnn and fox.

Fairly significant.

Russian invaded Georgia a few years ago, but that was a tiny country that did not border Europe.

Ukraine is a LOT larger, and borders the EU and NATO.

The issue is to which "side" Ukraine decides to pick, closer ties to the EU or closer ties to Russia.

Putin is very old-school, "us vs. them" and views Ukraine as decidedly in the Russian sphere of influence. He is rattling sabres and has occupied a (minor) part of Ukraine, a step towards doing to Ukraine the same thing he did to Georgia.

The problem is that most ethnic Ukrainians view themselves as closer to Europe than Russia, and they essentially overthrew the kleptocrat piece of that was running the country.

Depending on how it is handled, this could escalate rather rapidly.

[boutons_deux]

Neocons and the Ukraine Coup

Exclusive: American neocons helped destabilize Ukraine and engineer the overthrow of its elected government, a “regime change” on Russia’s western border. But the coup – and the neo-Nazi militias at the forefront – also reveal divisions within the Obama administration, reports Robert Parry.

By Robert Parry

More than five years into his presidency, Barack Obama has failed to take full control over his foreign policy, allowing a bureaucracy shaped by long years of Republican control and spurred on by a neocon-dominated U.S. news media to frustrate many of his efforts to redirect America’s approach to the world in a more peaceful direction.

But Obama deserves a big dose of the blame for this predicament because he did little to neutralize the government holdovers and indeed played into their hands with his initial appointments to head the State and Defense departments, Hillary Clinton, a neocon-leaning Democrat, and Robert Gates, a Republican cold warrior, respectively.

Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland.

Even now, key U.S. diplomats are more attuned to hard-line positions than to promoting peace. The latest example is Ukraine where U.S. diplomats, including Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, are celebrating the overthrow of an elected pro-Russian government.

Occurring during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, the coup in Ukraine dealt an embarrassing black eye to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had offended neocon sensibilities by quietly cooperating with Obama to reduce tensions over Iran and Syria, where the neocons favored military options.

Over the past several weeks, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was undercut by a destabilization campaign encouraged by Nuland and Pyatt and then deposed in a coup spearheaded by neo-Nazi militias. Even after Yanukovych and the political opposition agreed to an orderly transition toward early elections, right-wing armed patrols shattered the agreement and took strategic positions around Kiev.

Despite these ominous signs, Ambassador Pyatt hailed the coup as “a day for the history books.” Most of the mainstream U.S. news media also sided with the coup, with commentators praising the overthrow of an elected government as “reform.” But a few dissonant reports have pierced the happy talk by noting that the armed militias are part of the Pravy Sektor, a right-wing nationalist group which is often compared to the Nazis.

Thus, the Ukrainian coup could become the latest neocon-initiated “regime change” that ousted a target government but failed to take into
account who would fill the void.

http://consortiumnews.com/2014/02/23...-ukraine-coup/

Why would Repug neo-cons be unhappy with neo-Nazis running Ukraine?

Repugs are right-wing authortarian fascist reactionaries, they'd be right a home under neo-Nazi rulers.

[RandomGuy]

That's far from the truth. Ukraine is a sister country to Russia. In fact, the region of Crimea is filled with Russian built cities before it was given to the Ukrainian oblast in 1954 which at the time was one country (CCCP). Considering that over 50% of the population in Ukraine are Ukranian citizens that are Russian. Russia has every legitimate reason to protect it's key interests in the historically intertwined nation of Ukraine.

No, not really.

Unless one defines "russian interests" as propping up corrupt piece of governments when their populations have had enough.

Russia has some interests in Ukraine, but those interests are ill-served by waving yet another tin-pot dictator ally as a rallying cry. They already look like evil sticks for propping up Assad.

[Wild Cobra]

If one is looking for escalation, make Ukraine a member of NATO after elections are held. The Russians have already violated their part of the agreement when Ukraine got independence in the 90s.

Russia can be made to suffer economically as well, it's just that Europe will also, which means we will as well.
Russia would take a much harder hit though. It's a calculated risk. Putin can swim in freezing water, the Russian people are tougher and can endure economic hardship, the West can't handle eating cabbage every day.

I haven't been following this, but I heard something interesting. Ukraine consists of 17% Russians, and the claim I heard is they are not being treated well by the Ukraine. True or not, it is one reason being used. There is also something about a port on the Baltic.

Anyone know?

If this is true, it seems to me that the Ukraine needs to treat all their citizens equal. Ar least that [get] this excuse off the table.

[RandomGuy]

a coup spearheaded by neo-Nazi militias.

I would hardly call the elected legislature holding the executive responsible for police firing on civilians, and mass protests as "a coup spearheaded by neo-Nazi militias."

I don't mind looking into it, but this doesn't pass the initial "smell-test".

[RandomGuy]

the claim I heard is they are not being treated well by the Ukraine. True or not, it is one reason being used. There is also something about a port on the Baltic.

Anyone know?

If this is true, it seems to me that the Ukraine needs to treat all their citizens equal. Ar least that this excuse off the table.

THe claim is likely a fabricated reason, almost identical to the excuse used to invade Georgia.

The port is the main black sea port used by the Russian navy.

[Wild Cobra]

THe claim is likely a fabricated reason, almost identical to the excuse used to invade Georgia.

The port is the main black sea port used by the Russian navy.

Really hard to know, relying on biased media. Not knowing anyone there to trust. I know a guy from the area, bit he came over here at a young age. I should ask if he has ties over their and knows.

[RandomGuy]

Russia–Ukraine gas disputes


In January 2009, this disagreement resulted in supply disruptions in many European nations, with eighteen European countries reporting major drops in or complete cut-offs of their gas supplies transported through Ukraine from Russia.

Obama administration approves rare LNG export facility near Texas

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/b....html?page=all

Russia is going to find that its dwindling ability to supply natural gas to Europe is going to leave it in a far weaker position than Putin lets on, or even realizes.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9657

PDF report on the aging russian fields:
http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/...race_39_en.pdf
Pages 5 and 6, with the thesis pretty much sums it up. It is not a rosy picture.

Couple this with Russia's demographic implosion, its military decay, and overall capital and brain drain, and Russia's hand is going to be a lot weaker than one might think.

[RandomGuy]

Really hard to know, relying on biased media. Not knowing anyone there to trust. I know a guy from the area, bit he came over here at a young age. I should ask if he has ties over their and knows.

A good bull detector will get past bias. You use that crutch too much.

[Wild Cobra]

A good bull detector will get past bias. You use that crutch too much.

Your bull detector is very often biased. You realize that don't you?

Are you suggesting you know as fact?

[RandomGuy]

Fox, Repugs, right-wing hate media will be ting all over Obama for not going to war in Russia's backyard. I hope he doesn't fire a single shot.

Link please, I've seen nothing of the sort.

ROFL... really, you don't think the knee-jerk hyterical Obama bashing machine isn't going to kick into gear.

, I will look after I type this sentence, but if you don't know what I am going to find, then you aren't paying attention.

President Obama prefers public speeches. President Putin prefers to let his actions speak for him.

Obama talks. Putin takes.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014...kraine-crisis/


Krauthammer on Ukraine: 'Everybody is shocked by the weakness of Obama's statement'
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014...ama-statement/

Didn't take much.

Need more links of dip conservatives saying dip knee-jerk things?

[boutons_deux]

Obama administration approves rare LNG export facility near Texas

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/b....html?page=all

Russia is going to find that its dwindling ability to supply natural gas to Europe is going to leave it in a far weaker position than Putin lets on, or even realizes.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9657

PDF report on the aging russian fields:
http://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/...race_39_en.pdf
Pages 5 and 6, with the thesis pretty much sums it up. It is not a rosy picture.

Couple this with Russia's demographic implosion, its military decay, and overall capital and brain drain, and Russia's hand is going to be a lot weaker than one might think.

Russian bonds are paying 7% today, its stock market cratering.

If the ROW puts the financial screws to Russia, like it did to Iran, then maybe Putin will change path, but he's US right-wingers' idolized Macho Man, sits with his legs apart, like a Real Man.

[RandomGuy]

Your bull detector is very often biased. You realize that don't you?

Are you suggesting you know as fact?

I am far better at seeing through various types of bias, including my own, than you will ever be. You take the cake when it comes to being a slave to confirmation bias, and the fact that you can't even admit that you have such, screams volumes.

No, I don't know as a "fact". But given the past history of that claim, one would be well advised to take it ("ethnic Russians are being oppressed")with a great deal of skepticism, unless some significant evidence emerges.

[Wild Cobra]

That's far from the truth. Ukraine is a sister country to Russia. In fact, the region of Crimea is filled with Russian built cities before it was given to the Ukrainian oblast in 1954 which at the time was one country (CCCP). Considering that over 50% of the population in Ukraine are Ukranian citizens that are Russian. Russia has every legitimate reason to protect it's key interests in the historically intertwined nation of Ukraine.

I don't agree. They succeeded from the CCCP when the wall fell, and wish top remain independent. They need to shed in the world view, any propaganda as to why Russia needs to reabsorb them. It appears they have a very good Wheat industry, one of the things Oregon exports to Russia. They control a key commodity. Wars are often fought over such things.

[Wild Cobra]

I am far better at seeing through various types of bias, including my own, than you will ever be. You take the cake when it comes to being a slave to confirmation bias, and the fact that you can't even admit that you have such, screams volumes.

No, I don't know as a "fact". But given the past history of that claim, one would be well advised to take it ("ethnic Russians are being oppressed")with a great deal of skepticism, unless some significant evidence emerges.

That's your bias speaking again. You see, you did again, what you always do. I bring up a point I don't know, ask others about, and you assume it is my belief.

Your confirmation bias claims... You are the one full of it.

[Wild Cobra]

I haven't been following this, but I heard something interesting. Ukraine consists of 17% Russians, and the claim I heard is they are not being treated well by the Ukraine. True or not, it is one reason being used. There is also something about a port on the Baltic.

Anyone know?

If this is true, it seems to me that the Ukraine needs to treat all their citizens equal. Ar least that [get] this excuse off the table.

[RandomGuy]

That's your bias speaking again. You see, you did again, what you always do. I bring up a point I don't know, ask others about, and you assume it is my belief.

Your confirmation bias claims... You are the one full of it.

I didn't say it was your belief, I merely addressed it.

Please show what I said that implied you believed it.

[Blake]

I haven't been following this, but I heard something interesting. Ukraine consists of 17% Russians, and the claim I heard is they are not being treated well by the Ukraine. True or not, it is one reason being used. There is also something about a port on the Baltic.

Anyone know?

If this is true, it seems to me that the Ukraine needs to treat all their citizens equal. Ar least that [get] this excuse off the table.

I've heard once that a Russian employee was fired from a Ukranian MkDonalds for giving away money to a robber at gunpoint.

[Blake]

I've also heard that it's still better to be a Russian in the Ukraine than to be an American in Portland, Oregon.

[RandomGuy]

THe claim is likely a fabricated reason

Are you suggesting you know as fact?

I am suggesting your reading comprehension sucks.

I said "most likely". Most people would rightfully assume I was giving a statement of probability, rather than certainty.

You asked, I stated my opinion, and how confident I was of that analysis. I leave room for error that there may be some evidence to support it, as many propaganda bits tend to have some minor grain of truth to them. Given the history of the claim, vis a vis Georgia, and what the claim was used to justify, one should set a high level of evidence before accepting it.

Notice I said "one", being generally applicable to anyone. What ever the you believe is up to you. I hope that is clear enough.

[boutons_deux]

The unsolvable conflict is that ethnic Russians (leftovers from the USSR occupation) in Ukraine want to be aligned with, even part of Russia, while the Ukranians want to continue escaping from Russian domination to align with, join Western Europe.

I think par ion of Ukraine is best.

[Wild Cobra]

I've also heard that it's still better to be a Russian in the Ukraine than to be an American in Portland, Oregon.

The adults are trying to have a serious conversation. You are now on IGNORE.

[Wild Cobra]

I didn't say it was your belief, I merely addressed it.

Please show what I said that implied you believed it.

The simple fact that you accuse me of confirmation bias. Your intent is clear.

[Wild Cobra]

RG.

Have you seen this interesting development:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431