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  1. #1326
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    He may miss a month with a groin injury. Barring a miracle recovery, he should be out. It looks like Anthony Dixon(formerly a 49er) and Bryce Brown(formerly on the Eagles) will be the rb's. But the Bills should probably go to the air more against the Jets anyways.
    Dixon is just a banger, but Brown has some zip but is no Jackson/Spiller obviously.

    I don't like putting $$$ on Geno Smith, but he would have won $$$ for me vs Pats if I'd not pussied out over that storm that never showed up.....sheesh! I just can't ignore this "spot".

  2. #1327
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    The early line has the Jets -3 and the Chiefs -6. Looks real good to me right now, key words....right now.

    I also noticed Cincy - 3, hmmmm? I know the Bengals are a good HF but are struggling right now vs a Ravens team on a roll, hmmmmmmmm?

    I can't ignore 4-1ATS and the Bengals in this "spot" however, yep....????

  3. #1328
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    Broncos vs Chargers Thursday Night Football

    The two teams are almost identical when it comes to points scored/given up....so forget that.

    The Chargers at Denver in the Peyton Era...won 27-20/lost 23-30 both came in under the number. Actually 1 point from going 4-0ATS vs Broncos with Peyton.

    On Thursday night football, Broncos 5-3ATS/Chargers 4-2. Nothing there.

    Then there's this...Broncos 0-7 last 7 at home ATS vs Chargers.

    The Chargers are one of the best RD's in the league having gone 9-3 in that "spot" the last two seasons. When coming off a loss as a fav...6-1ATS. A good team getting points.

    The stats/trends point towards Chargers plus 7.5.

    Who can make a case of Denver in this "spot".

    In the Peyton era vs Chargers

    Denver 28-20
    Chargers 27-20
    Denver 24-17
    Denver 35-24
    Denver 30-23
    Last edited by Avante; 10-21-2014 at 07:00 PM.

  4. #1329
    Veteran Aztecfan03's Avatar
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    Broncos vs Chargers Thursday Night Football

    The two teams are almost identical when it comes to points scored/given up....so forget that.

    The Chargers at Denver in the Peyton Era...won 27-20/lost 23-30 both came in under the number. Actually 1 point from going 4-0ATS vs Broncos with Peyton.

    On Thursday night football, Broncos 5-3ATS/Chargers 4-2. Nothing there.

    Then there's this...Broncos 0-7 last 7 at home ATS vs Chargers.

    The Chargers are one of the best RD's in the league having gone 9-3 in that "spot" the last two seasons. When coming off a loss as a fav...6-1ATS. A good team getting points.

    The stats/trends point towards Chargers plus 7.5.

    Who can make a case of Denver in this "spot".

    In the Peyton era vs Chargers

    Denver 28-20
    Chargers 27-20
    Denver 24-17
    Denver 35-24
    Denver 30-23
    I wouldn't pick either team. The Chargers are likely to be missing two of their top 3 corners which is a very bad thing vs. Peyton. But we did not have those two last year and played peyton tough and the rest of our corners aren't any worse than what we had last year. The broncos passing game is better than last year i think, but the running game isn't. If the Chargers lines can hold up they will have a chance but they have played horribly the past two games.

    The thursday road game also makes the CHargers a less attractive pick.

  5. #1330
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    I wouldn't pick either team. The Chargers are likely to be missing two of their top 3 corners which is a very bad thing vs. Peyton. But we did not have those two last year and played peyton tough and the rest of our corners aren't any worse than what we had last year. The broncos passing game is better than last year i think, but the running game isn't. If the Chargers lines can hold up they will have a chance but they have played horribly the past two games.

    The thursday road game also makes the CHargers a less attractive pick.
    Yep, without your starting corners, forget it. I agree....no play either way.

  6. #1331
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    Cowboys release Michael Sam.

  7. #1332
    Veteran Aztecfan03's Avatar
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    Yep, without your starting corners, forget it. I agree....no play either way.
    I doubt flowers playes because he had a concussion sunday and hasn't participated in practice. Our beat reporter said Verrett wouldn't play but that should be taken with a grain of salt so it's possible we will only miss Flowers.

  8. #1333
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    I doubt flowers playes because he had a concussion sunday and hasn't participated in practice. Our beat reporter said Verrett wouldn't play but that should be taken with a grain of salt so it's possible we will only miss Flowers.
    The Chargers are also one of the better bounce back teams coming off a loss the last couple of years, but.......they need their starting dbs in this one unlike any other.

    Looking at the Chargers remaining games, hmmmm?....10-6?

  9. #1334
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    The Niners need pass rushers, no problem signing Sam.

  10. #1335
    Veteran Aztecfan03's Avatar
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    The Chargers are also one of the better bounce back teams coming off a loss the last couple of years, but.......they need their starting dbs in this one unlike any other.

    Looking at the Chargers remaining games, hmmmm?....10-6?
    how i see it
    most likely wins: @ MIA, vs OAK, vs STL
    pretty likely: @ chiefs
    toss up: vs DEN, @ Bal, @ 49ers (niners will have a bunch of key players back), vs patriots
    unlikely: @ DEN
    I'm predicting 11-5
    Keep in mind the chargers should have mostly everyone back after our week 10 bye including Mathews, Brown, and our cornerbacks barring further injuries. Manti te'o and melvin ingram(two of best lb'ers) could possibly be ready after the bye.

  11. #1336
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    how i see it
    most likely wins: @ MIA, vs OAK, vs STL
    pretty likely: @ chiefs
    toss up: vs DEN, @ Bal, @ 49ers (niners will have a bunch of key players back), vs patriots
    unlikely: @ DEN
    I'm predicting 11-5
    Keep in mind the chargers should have mostly everyone back after our week 10 bye including Mathews, Brown, and our cornerbacks barring further injuries. Manti te'o and melvin ingram(two of best lb'ers) could possibly be ready after the bye.
    I had 11-5 but thought they'd probably lose one they should have won, most do. Yep...11-5 very realistic.

    When they get their running backs back they do need a role for Oliver to play, too good to sit on the bench.

  12. #1337
    Veteran Aztecfan03's Avatar
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    I had 11-5 but thought they'd probably lose one they should have won, most do. Yep...11-5 very realistic.

    When they get their running backs back they do need a role for Oliver to play, too good to sit on the bench.
    Well we have already lost two games we should have won. I see 12-4 and even 13-3 as a possibilities too but behind 11-5 and 10-6.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Oliver and Mathews share time and Brown just sits on the bench most of the time. Brown hasn't looked good for the most part. Although, i'm not sure how their pass-blocking skills compare and if brown would see time because of that at all.

  13. #1338
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    Well we have already lost two games we should have won. I see 12-4 and even 13-3 as a possibilities too but behind 11-5 and 10-6.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Oliver and Mathews share time and Brown just sits on the bench most of the time. Brown hasn't looked good for the most part. Although, i'm not sure how their pass-blocking skills compare and if brown would see time because of that at all.
    I do doubt a 12-4, it wouldn't shock me but I doubt it.

    Get Oliver out in space, yep....a little lesser Sproles (he does pack more of a punch, just lacks the speed). You use Matthews up, he's who they really need.

    I gotta put Rivers right there with the very elite QB's this season, he's playing great.

  14. #1339
    yeah when avante first brought this up months ago i told him he was basically describing a corner blitz, but he refused to buy that
    I'm not seeing the difference at this point other than that there's no misdirection involved with it at all. You're basically just announcing that you're either going to blitz or that you're dropping a running back into coverage. So either way the QB knows to look at/attack that side of the field first.

    Nobody is talking about ......for the small guy...and I made that clear. Not talking about rushing a Trindon Holliday here...ok? Take a back up back, a guy with some heft or a big wide receiver and set them out wide. Good luck in a tackle being about to get out there and if he can have a backer right over him, so there's the hole.

    The local JC in town used that idea. On third and long in came backs/receivers with more speed than backers/DE's. Worked like a charm and would work at any level.
    I'd think you'd want as much speed as possible instead of a slightly bigger guy. Tyron Smith doesn't care about those extra 20-30 pounds. He's still laying the guy on his ass if he can touch him.

    I refused to buy it or talked about simply replacing big linemen with speed players in obvious third and long? You do know at the HS level most guys play both ways....right? You do know that Pitt uses running back John Conner as a DE...right? You do know that a lot of HS backs become backers at the next level...right? UCLA uses Myles Jack as a backer and running back.

    Make it to where you must leave backs in to block these speed rushers, it's real obvious they will be blowing by big linemen. That's the idea behind it. And if you spread a tackle out, there's that gap staring at a backer.


    Rookies....sheesh!
    Well if the goal of it is making sure the offense leaves in a RB, I guess it's successful? I mean most offenses don't go 5 wide even on 3rd and 15 anyways.

    I'm still not getting how this is schematically different from a corner blitz. (with whoever you want picking up that open receiver, doesn't' really matter.)


  15. #1340
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    We've all seen that speedy cat totally beat that big bulky lineman on extra point, field goal trys. That is what this is about. No some 300 pounder can't back peddle to deal with a 4.4 guy with a blitz start.

    If you blitz a corner you have less defenders covering receivers. Why have a 4.8 guy rushing a QB when it's without a doubt a pass (like third and 14) when you can have a 4.4 guy?

    While at Miami they had Devin Hester coming off the edge to block punts, yep, he blocked a couple, this is like that.

  16. #1341
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    As of right now these are the games I;m...hmmmm?....about as far as potential ATS plays.

    Houston coming off a bad loss vs an inferior opponent in Tennessee.
    The Chiefs at home in that noisey stadium vs a rookie QB and a Rams team that suck on the road.
    The Browns back at home coming off a loss vs a woeful Raiders team that can't win a game much less on the road.
    Aaron Rodgers is cooking right now vs that pourous Saints defense.
    The Dolphins are simply a far better team that the Jags.
    The Ravens are red hot, the Bengals are cold.
    The Jets in a "must win" situation with all that rest vs a team with third string backs.
    Tom Brady vs a team fighting among themselves in the Bears.
    The Cowboys at home on MNF vs a team with their third string QB.

    That's without looking at stats/trends or injuries. Just games that got my attention. After the homework I'll narrow it down to the 4 or 6 best plays leaving no stone unturned.
    Last edited by Avante; 10-22-2014 at 09:33 PM.

  17. #1342
    We've all seen that speedy cat totally beat that big bulky lineman on extra point, field goal trys. That is what this is about. No some 300 pounder can't back peddle to deal with a 4.4 guy with a blitz start.

    If you blitz a corner you have less defenders covering receivers. Why have a 4.8 guy rushing a QB when it's without a doubt a pass (like third and 14) when you can have a 4.4 guy?

    While at Miami they had Devin Hester coming off the edge to block punts, yep, he blocked a couple, this is like that.
    ...and teams don't have a runningback by the kicker to pick up the edge rushers on field goal attempts. I like my chances of stopping your 4.4 guy with my RB, especially since the RB knows exactly where you're coming from.

    & I mean I guess you could still do this, but if you're playing a team with more than 1 deep threat you're pretty much giving up single coverage if you're playing with a single deep safety. I'd rather not do that on a 3rd and 15.

  18. #1343
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    ...and teams don't have a runningback by the kicker to pick up the edge rushers on field goal attempts. I like my chances of stopping your 4.4 guy with my RB, especially since the RB knows exactly where you're coming from.

    & I mean I guess you could still do this, but if you're playing a team with more than 1 deep threat you're pretty much giving up single coverage if you're playing with a single deep safety. I'd rather not do that on a 3rd and 15.
    You're going to rush at least three guys on 3rd and 15, why not replace a big DE with a speedy athlete? It's just that simple. You want somebody coming off the edge with some quickness, I don't care how quick any DE is he can't match the kinds of quicks a back up DB/WR has.

  19. #1344
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    It's the NFL draft in 2018 the London Redcoats have the first pick being an expansion team. So up walks the Commisioner...

    "with the first pick in the 2018 NFL draft, the London Redcoats select......Alonzo Stone quarterback West Virginia"

    A little later...

    ESPN reporter...so how does it feel Alonzo to be the first pick?
    Alonzo....no way in I'm going over to London, ok, this sucks! My mom is sick and my girlfriend is having another kid and I gots to be there, ya understand. I'll sit out a year if I have to. I'd rather ride the bench in Oakland than go way over there.
    Last edited by Avante; 10-23-2014 at 02:15 AM.

  20. #1345
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    I'm wanting to take the Chargers(plus the points) in a "spot' they have done well in but with those injuries I just don't have the balls to do it. Yep, a pussy.

  21. #1346
    Veteran Aztecfan03's Avatar
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    I'm wanting to take the Chargers(plus the points) in a "spot' they have done well in but with those injuries I just don't have the balls to do it. Yep, a pussy.
    At least Verrett is playing. but i agree, too many injuried to bet.

  22. #1347
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    I'll lay the points tonight and take the Broncos. Manning is playing lights out while SD has two of their starting CBs injured.

  23. #1348
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    I'll lay the points tonight and take the Broncos. Manning is playing lights out while SD has two of their starting CBs injured.
    I almost made that play, I just hate bucking strong trends. As we saw the Chargers still had a great shot at hanging within the number injuries and all.

  24. #1349
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    I almost made that play, I just hate bucking strong trends. As we saw the Chargers still had a great shot at hanging within the number injuries and all.
    ANd if the game was fair, the game would have at least been within a score.

  25. #1350
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    ANd if the game was fair, the game would have at least been within a score.
    What a shame the Chargers were so beat up. They come in with their full team and we have a very close game, yep, the Broncos got all the calls.

    That was a fumble to begin with.

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