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  1. #1601
    Veteran chunticakes's Avatar
    My Team
    Dallas Cowboys
    Post Count
    3,752
    week 12

    40-32 plus $1280

    Time to start factoring in the weather which doesn't help things any. But....it's also the time playoff contenders start getting real serious.

    NE-7....Belichick/Brady at home in November....nuff said. Detroit has the best scoring D in the league. Won't be a blowout. Lions +7

    Miami +7....the Fish can rush the QB, the Broncos are banged up. Historically speaking the Dollphins are 4-0ATS last 4 in Denver. You don't bet against Manning at home coming off a loss. Broncos -7

    Dallas-3.5....Dallas is one of the best Nov teams in the league. 40-24ATS as a fav. The G-men 11-28 as a Nov dog. The Cowboys 3-1ATS last 4 vs Giants. Agree. This one I'm taking at Dallas -3.5

    Arizona + 6.5...no team in the league has a better ATS record in 2014 than the Cardinals. A team that has won 6 in a row and 16 of their last 18 getting 6.5???? Exactly. The oddsmakers know something to give a 9-1 team a TD. LOLDrew Stanton. It's a bait job Avante! Seattle -7

    Niners - 9...I hate to lay anything over 7 but here we have a Niners team knowing the Cards could lose in Seattle at home vs a Redskins team that sucks on the road, now add the RGIII factor. Can't ignore the Niners 6-2 in this "spot" either. You're being biased because you're a Niner fan. Line is too much. SF plays games close and Washington is a better team on the road. Pass.

    Packers-8....the stats/trends all say Vikes in this "spot" but how do we ignore Aaron Rodgers vs a rookie QB with that home field advantage in the playoffs a very real possibilty, so we'll see a motivated Packer team. Beat the Vikes 44-31 last season in Minnesota. I agree even though Green Bay is 2-3 away from home this season, with only one of those victories coming by more than a field goal. GB -9

    If I go 4-2 or better I'll be backing the Ravens on MNF, the Saints aren't all that and the Ravens are 5-1ATS last 6 coming off a bye week. Saints 8-7 as a HF on MNF, the Ravens 5-8 as a RD.

  2. #1602
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    I should listen to this...
    I pulled an Avante the last two weeks by going 1-4 and 2-3.

    31-27 on the year.

    Vikings +3
    Packers -6
    Falcons +1.5
    Saints -7
    Broncos -9.5
    Chargers -10

    I don't think so. Thrilled to see you disagree with some.

    NE at home in November is the strongest "spot" in the NFL. The Lions on the road not the same team. Oh yeah the Lions are 0-15 last 15 on the road vs winning teams.

    Denver was 6-4 last season as a HF, what are they this season as HF?

    The Skins were 1-5 as a RD in 2013, what are they in that "spot" in 2014?

    You ever check out stuff like this?

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/against-the-spread/


    As ya can see I have the ATS advantage in all five games I'm playing.
    Last edited by Avante; 11-23-2014 at 12:41 PM.

  3. #1603
    Veteran chunticakes's Avatar
    My Team
    Dallas Cowboys
    Post Count
    3,752
    I'm currently at 33-33.

  4. #1604
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    I'm currently at 33-33.
    33-33 so you're minus how much $$$?

    I;m off the Arizona pick, it appears Larry Fitzgerald isn't playing. So forget that one.

    Let me explain something here, while this 40-32 or 33-33 is fun it really doesn't mean , the bottom line is $$$$$$$$. How much $$$$$$$ are you winning? My thing is to be sitting pretty around plus $2000 heading into the playoffs. The playoffs are far easier to pick than these regular season game. Great teams at home.......best bet in sports gambling.
    Last edited by Avante; 11-23-2014 at 12:50 PM.

  5. #1605
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
    My Team
    Oakland Raiders
    Post Count
    96,028
    week 12

    40-32 plus $1280

    Time to start factoring in the weather which doesn't help things any. But....it's also the time playoff contenders start getting real serious.

    NE-7....Belichick/Brady at home in November....nuff said.

    Miami +7....the Fish can rush the QB, the Broncos are banged up. Historically speaking the Dollphins are 4-0ATS last 4 in Denver.

    Dallas-3.5....Dallas is one of the best Nov teams in the league. 40-24ATS as a fav. The G-men 11-28 as a Nov dog. The Cowboys 3-1ATS last 4 vs Giants.

    Niners - 9...I hate to lay anything over 7 but here we have a Niners team knowing the Cards could lose in Seattle at home vs a Redskins team that sucks on the road, now add the RGIII factor. Can't ignore the Niners 6-2 in this "spot" either.

    Packers-9....the stats/trends all say Vikes in this "spot" but how do we ignore Aaron Rodgers vs a rookie QB with that home field advantage in the playoffs a very real possibilty, so we'll see a motivated Packer team. Beat the Vikes 44-31 last season in Minnesota.

    If I go 3-2 or better I'll be backing the Ravens on MNF, the Saints aren't all that and the Ravens are 5-1ATS last 6 coming off a bye week. Saints 8-7 as a HF on MNF, the Ravens 5-8 as a RD.

    So I have Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers/Cowboys coming off a bye/a ed up RHIII/a banged up Broncos team....on my side.
    patriots covered, packers didn't. 1-1 in the morning

    Dolphins looking good right now, and Niners are in there

  6. #1606
    Believe. Malik Hairston's Avatar
    My Team
    Denver Broncos
    Post Count
    11,370
    Avante, I have a trend for you, my ..

    Home dogs that are getting at least 8 points are 26-9 vs. the spread the past few years, tbh..
    27-9 now with the Vikings beating the spread..

  7. #1607
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    So the Chiefs can kick the out of the mighty Patriots then lose to a winless Raiders.........anyone still not geting "spots"...?

    This isn't LSU vs the SWAC where they win 100 out of 100 because the difference in talent is so huge, this is the NFL.....here all it takes is a few turnovers and the Jags/Raiders can beat anyone. So we look for 'spots" where a team has and advantage, yep just like Oakland had over the Chiefs. We could see that coming a mile away.

    I won't be playing any of the Thursday games because I'd have to sit down and get involved, as we know with family over...can't do it. But.....the Lions at home coming off an embarrashing loss vs team that hasn't won three consecutive games since the first three weeks of 2013. Detroit 7-1ATS last 8 vs the Bears. Yep, perfect "spot" for the Lions to prowl.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    As far as great catchs go....


    Last edited by Avante; 11-25-2014 at 03:10 AM.

  8. #1608
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    In case ya haven't noticed if not for Russell Wilson is Seahawks are totally sucking.

  9. #1609
    Veteran chunticakes's Avatar
    My Team
    Dallas Cowboys
    Post Count
    3,752
    In case ya haven't noticed if not for Russell Wilson is Seahawks are totally sucking.
    Seahawks are winning in spite of him tbh.

  10. #1610
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    Seahawks are winning in spite of him tbh.
    Haven't seen one Seahawk game have you?

    There are six teams playing tomorrow, being a Niner fan I hate to say this but......Wilson will be the star of the day.

  11. #1611
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    If I'm the Colts I'm signing Ray Rice.

    Colin Kaerpernick sucks! He's lost two games all by himself.

    Right now it's looking like the Seahawks are the second best team in the NFC right behind GB. Getting healthy now.

    The Rams are far better than their record, imagine this schedule....

    Dallas
    bye
    at Philly
    Niners
    at KC
    at Niners
    at Arizona
    Denver
    at SD

    And they did beat Seattle/Denver/Niners.....without a legit QB.

  12. #1612
    Believe. Malik Hairston's Avatar
    My Team
    Denver Broncos
    Post Count
    11,370
    If I'm the Colts I'm signing Ray Rice.

    Colin Kaerpernick sucks! He's lost two games all by himself.

    Right now it's looking like the Seahawks are the second best team in the NFC right behind GB. Getting healthy now.

    The Rams are far better than their record, imagine this schedule....

    Dallas
    bye
    at Philly
    Niners
    at KC
    at Niners
    at Arizona
    Denver
    at SD

    And they did beat Seattle/Denver/Niners.....without a legit QB.
    They also blew a few of those games late in the 4th when they had a comfortable lead all game(and got robbed by the refs vs. San Diego last week)..they've been compe ive in nearly all of their games, pretty impressive considering their QB and their D-line's slow start..

    Do you have any leans for tomorrow?

  13. #1613
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    They also blew a few of those games late in the 4th when they had a comfortable lead all game(and got robbed by the refs vs. San Diego last week)..they've been compe ive in nearly all of their games, pretty impressive considering their QB and their D-line's slow start..

    Do you have any leans for tomorrow?
    Too bad the Rams don't play in the NFC South.

    As far as picks/plays go....

    I'll be back prior to the games with my picks, I always look for the last injury reports this late in a season with so many players banged up. I am looking at....

    Balt
    Cinncy
    Buff
    Pitt
    St.Louis
    Ariz
    Indy
    Den

    will narrow that down to six or four depending on what I hear from now until about an hour before kickoff.

    Miami vs the Jets on MNF seems too easy.

  14. #1614
    Believe. Malik Hairston's Avatar
    My Team
    Denver Broncos
    Post Count
    11,370
    Remember that trend I told you about last week regarding Minnesota-Green Bay?(8 points or more home dogs)..

    Jets are +7.5 in some places, it's approaching that territory..I'm terrified of betting on a team with Geno Smith at QB, but I'm thinking about it..

  15. #1615
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    Remember that trend I told you about last week regarding Minnesota-Green Bay?(8 points or more home dogs)..

    Jets are +7.5 in some places, it's approaching that territory..I'm terrified of betting on a team with Geno Smith at QB, but I'm thinking about it..
    That was an interesting trend.

    But...

    The Dolphins are in the playoff mix, the Jets are not. The Dophins are plus over 60 when it comes to points, the Jets a woeful minus 110. The last two games the Dolphins have played at Jets....

    2013 Miami 23-3
    2012 Miami 30-9

    Under Joe Philpen the Dolphins have owned the Jets in NY. Keep in mind those Jet teams were better than this one while the Dolphins weren't as good.

    Now look at the last six weeks, the Dolphins 4-2 the Jets 1-5.

    I can't see any reason to be backing the Jets in this "spot".

  16. #1616
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    Week 13

    44-35 plus $2150

    Buff -3 ...when have the Browns won back to back road games? It's been over a decade.
    Balt -6...west coast teams flying east vs a good team at home, great "spot".
    NYG-3....the Jags simply suck.
    Minn -2.5...the Vikes played the Packers tough, now at home again. Carolina 8-12ATS after a bye.

    The Pats getting points in Nov, gotta love it. But....how do you go against Aaron Rodgers at home? Gotta pass.

  17. #1617
    36/7/7
    My Team
    Baltimore Ravens
    Post Count
    5,892
    The Pats getting points in Nov, gotta love it. But....how do you go against Aaron Rodgers at home? Gotta pass.
    Gotta take the Pats if Vegas is giving em more than a field goal.

  18. #1618
    Veteran chunticakes's Avatar
    My Team
    Dallas Cowboys
    Post Count
    3,752
    he's right, new england should be an auto-bet every time they're getting points.

  19. #1619
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    The current line and the one I'll be playing is Miami - 6.5.

    The Dolphins thinking they have a shot at the playoffs, so they must beat weak teams like the Jets. The Jets can't wait for this season to be over.

    So I'll lay the number and play 550 to win 500.

  20. #1620
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    Gotta take the Pats if Vegas is giving em more than a field goal.
    The only problem with that is that the Pats will be on the road vs a great team.

  21. #1621
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
    My Team
    Oakland Raiders
    Post Count
    96,028
    Week 13

    44-35 plus $2150

    Buff -3 ...when have the Browns won back to back road games? It's been over a decade.
    Balt -6...west coast teams flying east vs a good team at home, great "spot".
    NYG-3....the Jags simply suck.
    Minn -2.5...the Vikes played the Packers tough, now at home again. Carolina 8-12ATS after a bye.

    The Pats getting points in Nov, gotta love it. But....how do you go against Aaron Rodgers at home? Gotta pass.
    2-2.... Yawn

  22. #1622
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    46-37 plus $2130

    I have the Jets - 6.5 tonight, will play 550 to win 500.

    I noticed your...Avante Bet Tracker...thing sorta back fired didn't it? Not too much fun posting....plus $2130...is it?
    Last edited by Avante; 12-01-2014 at 12:25 PM.

  23. #1623
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
    My Team
    Oakland Raiders
    Post Count
    96,028
    Not really. Still going by your 70% predictions claim.

    Plus when it comes to your record, are you including that bull win you never posted here but afterwards claimed u made the pick?

  24. #1624
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    Not really. Still going by your 70% predictions claim.

    Plus when it comes to your record, are you including that bull win you never posted here but afterwards claimed u made the pick?
    I made that pick on that other site as I showed. I couldn't get on here as I mentioned. I wasn't home and don't know my password. This is suppose to be about my 2014, well there is it. I have made $2130.

    The bottom line is $$$$$$$$ once you get past 15.


    http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sho...313-Over-Under

  25. #1625
    Banned
    My Team
    San Francisco 49ers
    Post Count
    49,723
    Look at how Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson come off as intelligent guys while Kaerpernick and RGIII come off as "young".

    Peyton, Rodgers and Brady more like Luck and RW and nothing like Kaerpernick and RGIII.

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