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Stats say otherwise.
Dude...you make yourself look like a fool with posts like this:
Stats say otherwise.
Got FKLA looking like a damn fool in here. Personally taking time to make his own memes
What stats, re ?
For regular season play, we need to take into account average time per possession. In 2013, this is 2:34, meaning we expect only about 3 drives per team before the 15-minute overtime period ends in a tie. Therefore, a more realistic probability distribution is:What stats, re ?
Using identical sums as the infinite overtime model, the probability of the receiving team losing is .446, the probability of the receiving team winning is .507, and the probability of a tie is .047.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/201...-markov-chain/
Let me know if you have trouble comprehending.
You god damn re . You realize college football overtime is not 15 minutes long, right? You realize the rules behind it are completely different?
And if your re ed ass could comprehend what that says you'd also know that choosing defense first in the NFL makes no sense. The probability of the receiving team winning is .507, the probability of the receiving team losing is .446. Which number is greater, re ? You just keep providing re gems and are too re ed to realize it.
Dunning-Kruger Effect: Unskilled individuals tend to suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. In unskilled individuals, this bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their inep ude.
^If dumbjohn isn't a classic example of it, then I don't know what is. ing UTSA flunkout flying the UT banner as if he ever stepped foot on that campus.
If you clicked on the link, you would see it's for the NFL dip .
And if your re ed ass could comprehend what that says you'd also know that choosing defense first in the NFL makes no sense. The probability of the receiving team winning is .507, the probability of the receiving team losing is .446. Which number is greater, re ? You just keep providing re gems and are too re ed to realize it.
You do realize 50-44 is not a big advantage like you were saying it was?
Here's what you said re , dont move the goalposts:
In reality defense first doesn't make any sense in the NFL. Defense first makes all the sense in the world in college. You had it completely backwards and are too re ed to realize it.It's re ed to go defense first in college football when the ball is placed at the 25 yard line. It makes sense in the NFL because they have to drive the entire field.
It apparently does make sense, there is not a big enough disadvantage to say it doesn't.
You go with the higher probability, re . It doesn't matter if the difference is 'only' 6%...why would you bet on the lower probability? Take statistics out of it and just use common sense and it becomes even more clear. Why give them the ball and a chance to score to win the game when you can have the chance to do the same first?
Yet you'll sit there with a straight face and claim you went to UT. ing UTSA flunkout.
Or you'll say like 'Let me know if you have trouble comprehending'.
If you can't understand that simple concept about probability it's pretty safe to say you've never been anywhere near a statistics class. ing re .
Because most drives in overtime (opening drives ) end up not scoring. (2013)You go with the higher probability, re . It doesn't matter if the difference is 'only' 6%...why would you bet on the lower probability? Take statistics out of it and just use common sense and it becomes even more clear. Why give them the ball and a chance to score to win the game when you can have the chance to do the same first?
Yet you'll sit there with a straight face and claim you went to UT. ing UTSA flunkout.
After a kickoff, drives end with the following frequencies (all stats from www.pro-football-reference.com):
Defensive TD: .020
Safety: .001
No Score: .661
FG: .118
TD: .200
Last edited by djohn2oo8; 10-26-2014 at 07:56 PM.
So instead of taking the ball and that 31.8% chance of scoring a game-winning TD/FG you give them the ball and the 31.8% chance of winning the game? 31.8% is greater than the 0% chance you'd have if you choose defense dumb .
lol UTSA flunkout
^ Damn, look at all those opening drive beasts.
Its clear that you don't know how to interpret these stats and graphs so why even post them? If you weren't such a re you'd realize these stats you are posting are actually destroying your own argument.
lol Dunning-Kruger
Fact is even for an elite offense it is hard to go 80 yards for a touchdown, which is likely what you will have to do to win the game that way. Teams starting at their own 20 score a touchdown only about 16 percent of the time.
Throw in the fact the risk-averse coaches know they can still kick a field goal, and it’s not the obviously favorable scenario it may have once been in pure sudden death. Yet we have seen every single coach take the ball first this year.
How much good has that really done? This table shows the game flow in overtime in 2012. Obviously the team winning the coin toss and receiving had the ball on drives 1, 3 and 5. The opponent had it on drives 2, 4 and 6. “GW” means game-winning.
lol copy and pasting
lol too stupid to realize a low probability is better than no probability
You said defense first in NFL overtime makes no sense, when I posted stats showing it does make sense.
You don't know how to interpret those stats, re . There is a reason 99.9% of coaches choose offense first. But I'm sure in your little re ed brain it's just bc they aren't as smart as you.
lol Dunning-Kruger
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