How far should Hosner have been out by?

[MultiTroll]

You sustain your own objections? Without even giving the other side a chance to respond?

Don't go Chump on me and start making stuff up.

Ok so give me this years empirical, right at the moment Hosmer is still on 3rd.
What is the math if he stays, the easy throw is made to 1st for two outs. Duda never gets the chance to go rec league.
Next batter up with two outs. What is the math?

[FromWayDowntown]

Ok so give me this years empirical, right at the moment Hosmer is still on 3rd.
What is the math if he stays, the easy throw is made to 1st for two outs. Duda never gets the chance to go rec league.
Next batter up with two outs. What is the math?

I don't know that, other than to point to the identical cir stance last year. Since the numbers seem to span all of baseball history, I feel pretty confident in the belief that a team down 1 on the road with 2 outs in the 9th inning and a runner at third, has roughly a 15% chance of winning the game.

[MultiTroll]

I don't know that, other than to point to the identical cir stance last year. Since the numbers seem to span all of baseball history, I feel pretty confident in the belief that a team down 1 on the road with 2 outs in the 9th inning and a runner at third, has roughly a 15% chance of winning the game.

Ya but then it's gotta be factored in that particular batter vs that pitcher (if enough sample size), home team (Mets) vs. roadies, etc.

Hmmn i would think the math is available. Will try to find.

Related, the math on Collins letting the starter open the 9th vs Mets top reliever at the time....mistake.
With fatigue no doubt being a factor, he walks what becomes the 2-1 run.
No I'm not talking 20/20 I'm saying go with the closer right then and there. Combined with a defensive 1st baseman. For the love of God why are you *saving* Duda for later at bats.

[FromWayDowntown]

Related, the math on Collins letting the starter open the 9th vs Mets top reliever at the time....mistake.
With fatigue no doubt being a factor, he walks what becomes the 2-1 run.
No I'm not talking 20/20 I'm saying go with the closer right then and there. Combined with a defensive 1st baseman. For the love of God why are you *saving* Duda for later at bats.

Even if we disagree on the prudence of Hosmer's decision to run, I agree with what you say here.

Collins made a mistake in trusting Harvey in that spot; it wasn't like Harvey was Jack Morris in 1991 or even Chris Carpenter in 2011 against the Phillies (when Larussa let him take the ball in the 9th on the road in Game 5 with a 1-0 lead to complete the game).

And the fact that the Mets had minus defenders in several infield spots really hurt them in the WS. Ironic, in some ways that the thing that kept the Mets alive in 1986 was John McNamara's refusal to insert a better defensive 1B in the 9th inning of Game 6 and the thing that may have killed the Mets in 2015 was Terry Collins' refusal to give up some offense in order to solidify his defense. And its shameful if the Mets built their postseason roster without considering the need to be able to improve defense to hold late leads.

[Pelicans78]

Most National League teams don't carry backup 1B. Actually not most teams carry a backup 1B strictly for defense since its not a premium defensive position compared to the middle infield and outfield. Most DHs in the American League are first basemen, but they DH for a reason. The National League doesn't have a DH so they carry an extra pitcher instead as well as backup outfielders and middle infielders. Duda wouldn't be expected to come out of the game for defensive purposes since teams rarely sub for his position.