Absolutely no way Gasol will opt out.
Big questions:
1. The "Retweet" and Deadman's injury are really clouding the issue. For whatever reason, Pop wasn't giving Deadman as many minutes as many ST "experts" (and others) expected. It will be very interesting to see how Pop uses him and how well he plays when he returns. Right now, with such a small sample size, it is just not clear whether Pop would want Deadman back at any price.
2. Patty's future is pretty complicated, too. He is one of the Spurs' three best 3-point shooters, and his ball-handling skills (though still not elite) have improved greatly. Moreover, in a Spurs' world where the team will likely lose its Big Three in three consecutive years, Patty would suddenly become (along with Danny) the elder statesmen. Patty shows the better leadership skills of the two. During the era of the Big Three the Spurs' corporate knowledge was transmitted through a huge conduit. That pipeline took a huge hit with Timmy's retirement this season. It will take a big hit next season (assuming Manu retires). And will take another hit a the following season (assuming Tony retires). And I would not be surprised to see Patty give the Spurs a hometown discount a la Danny. I tend to think Patty will reach a deal to stay with the Spurs. 4/48 would be excellent value for the Spurs under the new cap.
3. It seems pretty clear that the Spurs hope and/or expect and/or plan for Simmons to assume Manu's role. Otherwise - ?
4. Will any team be willing to offer David Lee a big contract after one year in San Antonio when nobody was this pre-season?
5. Simmons is working very hard on his handles, his passing and his judgment. I am very encouraged by that even though it means that he has largely curbed his high-light reel athletic plays such as the slam dunks. If he gains confidence in his handles/passing/judgment and re-integrates those eye-popping athletic plays into his game, Simmons will be a very nice player worth most of (if not all) of Manu's money. His defensive game is also picking up. So, yeah, the Spurs will extend a QO which another team might bid up. It would have to be pretty steep to prevent the Spurs from matching it.