Not sold on Derrick Henry at the NFL level. He doesn't have those quicks, it takes him too long to get up to speed, and he's not real nifty or elusive. This running over people thing won't work in this league.
I do see your 12-4 as being realistic and would lean more 13-3 than 11=5. With healthy receivers things will go far better for Newton, who did great without them.