I still don't see how this passes without 60 votes unless McConnell just says the rules of the senate. Which I guess he will? I can't believe anyone would ever declare Trumpcare as dead. I do think if this fails tonight they might wait for January 2019 when they'll very likely have a much bigger cushion in the senate to basically pass the AHCA or maybe even a full repeal (25 of the 33 seats up in the midterm are currently held by Democrats, including seats in Montana and Missouri). Though they'll probably lose seats in the house and perhaps even control, so it would be risky.
NATE SILVER 10:29 PM
One thing that “skinny repeal” doesn’t include is additional funding for opioid treatment, as had reportedly been considered for inclusion at earlier stages. West Virginia’s Capito, one of the GOP senators most concerned about opioid treatment, hasn’t yet taken a clear position on the just-released bill.
Doesn't matter, Capito will surely be a yes vote.
PERRY BACON JR. 10:37 PM
The silence in the last 30 minutes from er, Moran and McCain — folks who have been more critical of the Obamacare repeal push — is telling. I just don’t see members who have not signaled opposition in the last few hours suddenly voting against this. I assume the leadership has some sense that they have 50 votes. They are acting confident.
NATE SILVER 10:42 PM
To Harry’s point — I don’t think the objections from the right to “skinny repeal” are all kabuki. I think a lot of people, from Sean Hannity to people from the GOP’s more moderate wing, have a lot of sincere objections to it. That debate and the conference negotiations could be quite painful for Republicans. But of the major three outcomes that might emerge from the conference — 1) the conference succeeds and an AHCA-type bill passes, 2) the conference fails to reach compromise and nothing passes, 3) the conference fails to reach a compromise and the House approves “skinny repeal” as a default — I still think No. 3 is the most likely.
HARRY ENTEN 10:45 PM
To Nate’s point, I think the fact that No. 3 (the conference failing to compromise and the House approving “skinny repeal”) shows that what some GOP senators are trying to convince people of (that this won’t be the final bill) isn’t exactly on the level. Whatever you think of “skinny repeal,” realize that it has a good shot at becoming law. I think the fact that senators will vote for it knowing that tells you how they really feel about the bill. It may not be great, but they still view it as better than nothing.
ANNA MARIA BARRY-JESTER 10:47 PM
The Rules Of Reconciliation
Earlier information about the bill suggested that it might run afoul of Senate rules in several ways. As I wrote earlier in the day, because the GOP is pursuing this bill through reconciliation, it must reduce the deficit by at least as much as the House bill did in order to pass with 50 votes (Vice President Mike Pence would serve as tiebreaker). Otherwise, the bill would need 60 votes, a tall order given that there are 52 Senate Republicans. The Congressional Budget Office released tables last night based on a variation of what was expected to be in the bill, and those tables suggested that the bill didn’t save enough money to comply with the rules. The text of this bill is largely similar to what the CBO analyzed, but there are some notable differences. We’re still reading, and the bill could change on the floor, but without a CBO score, it’s hard to say whether it meets the budgetary requirements.
The bill also includes at least two provisions that the Senate parliamentarian has advised fall outside of the rules of reconciliation: defunding of Planned Parenthood and state waivers to insurance regulations. However, Senate Republicans have made some changes to those amendments, and it looks like they might both now clear the reconciliation hurdles. Restrictions on Medicaid funding to health providers that perform abortions have been made more general (I don’t believe the parliamentarian has ruled one way or another on this more general language, though Republican senators presumably consulted with her).
As for the the waivers for insurance regulations, previous GOP versions of the bill significantly opened up what states could do with their insurance markets. This version appears to require that any waivers on the insurance system still cover as many people as would be covered under the full suite of Obamacare regulations, which could allow that provision to pass with 50 votes as well.
PERRY BACON JR. 10:49 PM
The liberal “resistance” deserves some credit: It really reshaped this bill. McConnell started off looking to pass a bill with huge tax cuts for the wealthy and Medicaid cuts. Those proved very unpopular with the public. Liberals organized town halls and protests. So the tax cuts and Medicaid cuts had to be shelved. This is a smaller bill, and it has moved left from where the GOP started. That said, it would still be a huge blow for Democrats. This could blow up the individual health insurance market if it becomes law.
that sounds like a huge blow for republicans to me.
it.
DAN HOPKINS 11:06 PM
One Winner If The Senate Repeal Bill Passes? The House
When the House passed the American Health Care Act in May, one selling point was that the Senate would hammer out a better plan — and the House would then pass the Senate’s plan, sparing the Senate a second vote. That plan ceded to the Senate GOP relatively wide la ude to design its own health care bill. But the Senate seems poised to punt back to the House via a conference committee, so the House now has newfound sway over the final product. Ironically, the Senate was unable to fashion a more comprehensive compromise among its members in this round and may well have reduced influence over what emerges in the next round.
PERRY BACON JR. 11:07 PM
The money line from the CBO report: “CBO and JCT estimate that premiums for policies in the nongroup market would increase by roughly 20 percent relative to current law in all years between 2018 and 2026.
So this is probably a done deal, this will become law. And McCain will give another long-winded speech about how much he hates the process while voting for it.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog...e-health-care/
ANNA MARIA BARRY-JESTER 11:11 PM
The CBO tables also show that the bill saves the necessary amount of money to meet the rules of reconciliation surrounding budget impact.
Midnight is better then 3 am
on what metric are you basing that?
PERRY BACON JR. 11:19 PM
The bill has out been out for about an hour, and I don’t think I’ve seen a single Republican senator who has committed to voting against it. Either we are going to see some kind of “West Wing”-style dramatic moment, or it’s passing. I would bet on passage.
HARRY ENTEN 11:21 PM
It’s hard to find supportive voices for this bill or the process on social media right now. Usually, I’d say that social media isn’t representative of the public, but in this case it is. We’re seeing a bill come up for a vote in the middle of the night that has very little public support and could have major policy implications. Traditionally, I’d think of that as some form of electoral suicide, but we’re still more than a year from the 2018 midterm elections.
It will matter what the bill President signs
DAN HOPKINS 11:44 PM
We typically think of legislation as having a mix of political and policy motivations, but given how dramatically the Senate GOP’s policy proposals have swung, it seems safe to say that the motivation here is primarily political. That is, the GOP is desperate to pass a bill that credibly undermines the ACA, whether it dramatically changes Medicaid and shores up the exchanges or destabilizes the exchanges while leaving Medicaid untouched. But my question is this: Are the political payoffs to passing this bill anywhere near as large as the GOP’s actions imply?
they wrote a bill over lunch that they are going to pass in the middle of the night without answering any questions about it.
no sane person can justify this
republicans
Nor defend Leftism, but you do.
you.
Trump supporters say hi.
Trump needs a tax cut for himself.
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