The Republican Party’s reality problem — and ours

[RandomGuy]

The parties are not equal, not by a long shot. One has become completely detached from reality, and attacks science and reason itself.

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In Alabama, 71 percent of Republicans say they believe the allegations against Roy Moore are fabricated. In Washington, President Donald Trump believes he “won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally” (he didn’t), that he had “the biggest Electoral College win since Ronald Reagan” (nope), that his inauguration crowds were the largest ever (they weren’t), and that virtually any information he dislikes is “FAKE NEWS!”

It’s comforting to imagine this denialism as a particular affliction of the Trumpist factions of the modern GOP. It isn’t. It’s present even in the most sober, credible, and respected corners of the Republican Party. It predates Trump and Moore, and it arguably led to their rise.

The battle over tax reform has been a particularly stunning example. Republicans in the House and Senate have passed bills that will add a trillion dollars or more to the debt, and they simply pretend otherwise, despite mountains of evidence (and common sense) to the contrary. The debate shows that the most established of establishment Republicans are just as resistant to unpleasant information, just as happy to live in fantasy worlds of their own concoction, just as likely to wave away overwhelming evidence as partisan fabrication.

That the GOP tax bills will add to the debt is not a controversial, or even arguable, conclusion. The proposals have been assessed by the right-wing Tax Foundation, the centrist Tax Policy Center, the respected Penn Wharton Budget Model, and even Congress’s internal referee, the Joint Committee on Taxation. A number of these estimates were so-called “dynamic scores” — the Republican gold standard for tax analysis, which takes into account the possible growth from tax changes and the new revenues that growth can create.

Every single one of these estimates concluded that the GOP’s tax plan would add $1 trillion or more to the debt over the next decade. “Tax cuts do not pay for themselves — they do not even come close to paying for themselves,” wrote the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in a meta-analysis of the various estimates. A survey of 42 top economists failed to find a single one who believed the tax cuts wouldn’t add to the national debt.

Republican leaders insist their tax cuts will pay for themselves, despite all evidence to the contrary
Top Republicans could have accepted these numbers, and said that it was worth adding a trillion dollars or more to the deficit to pass their tax cuts. Or they could have gone back to the drawing board and changed their bill so it really was revenue-neutral, as they had promised. Instead, they retreated into fantasy.


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Dave Roberts has written in detail about our “epistemic crisis,” which he traces to “the US conservative movement’s rejection of the mainstream ins utions devoted to gathering and disseminating knowledge (journalism, science, the academy) — the ones society has appointed as referees in matters of factual dispute.” You see the process in action here. To hold fast to their assertions that tax cuts pay for themselves, Ryan, McConnell, and even Collins have had to ignore the economics profession, all credible journalism on tax policy, and the official judgment of Congress’s own analysts. And if they can ignore those ins utions, and encourage their supporters to ignore those ins utions, why can’t Trump and Moore do the same on matters both trivial and profound?

Here is what I want to say: In the end, reality wins. Facts remains when lies wash out. A political party that builds itself atop a foundation made of fantasies will soon collapse. If you pass a bad tax plan, voters notice, and suffer, and they punish you. If you elect a president who lies to the country and to himself, governance suffers, and the country punishes you.

I want to say that, but I am not sure it’s true. Policy lags. A tax plan that piles on debt is often forgotten by the time that debt needs to be paid down. The politicians preventing action on global warming today will not be there to pay the price tomorrow. If Moore wins because the allegations against him were disbelieved, it is unlikely the Senate will do anything about it. If Trump misgoverns the country but benefits from a run of good economic luck, he may well be reelected.

In the end, bad policy creates bad outcomes. But the Republican Party has amassed quite a bit of political power in part by exhibiting casual cruelty toward hard truths, and it would be my own form of happy denialism to assert that they will surely pay some future price. The country, however, will.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ans-taxes-lies

[boutons_deux]

But the Republican Party has amassed quite a bit of political power in part by exhibiting casual cruelty toward hard truths, and it would be my own form of happy denialism to assert that they will surely pay some future price. The country, however, will.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ans-taxes-lies

The question the article ignores is why the Repugs deny reality and LIE non-stop about everything, and have for decades.

The Repugs are the compromised, corrupt, craven tool of the oligarchy and the oligarchy's $Bs the Repugs pocket to rig the country as the oligarchy desires.

"In the end, reality wins. ... I am not sure it’s true."

The oligarchy's America is in permanent decline for the lower 4 quintiles and the environment.

The Iraq war for oil that the oligarchy started continues without foreseeable end 14+ years, and $Ts wasted, after the invasion.

The oligarchy profits from endless war, so will do nothing about it except pocketing $Ts in war profiteering.

[koriwhat]

Project much? Liberals never lie.... except always and until they are blue in the face.