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  1. #1
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    JW: What is his path?

    TF: It’s really simple. Unemployment is extremely low right now. The economy is booming. He could succeed the way Bill Clinton did. People have trouble remembering what Clinton actually did as president, but they do remember it was good times. There was universal prosperity. As a result, Clinton was massively popular towards the end of his administration. It wasn’t because of NAFTA or the balanced budget or bank deregulation. Those were not particularly popular things. It was because the economy was booming. I’m not just referring to the stock market. As we all know, there was a classic stock-market bubble in the late 1990s—the NASDAQ bubble with tech stocks. But something else happened in the late 1990s: Wages grew for the first and only time since the 1970s. Real wages for average workers grew, when adjusted for inflation. In the country that you and I grew up in, Jon, that used to be common. That happened every year. Nowadays, it never happens. The Bill Clinton late 1990s was the one period when it in fact took place.
    https://www.thenation.com/article/thomas-frank-trump-could-win-the-2020-election/

  2. #2
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    "The economy is booming."

    the stock market is booming

    ... not for everyone. the top 5% or so pocket 95% of the gains in national wealth.

    Ms are in ty, low-pay at below poverty level, no-future jobs, like Uber, delivery drivers, while 100Ks are laid off in retail.

    real wages are stagnant, have been since late 70s.



  3. #3
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Median wages are growing:

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage...r.aspx?panel=1




    But are not keeping up with inflation:


  4. #4
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    TF with the dagger out for liberal smugness:

    What does it tell us when liberals, faced with epic political corruption, spectacular bank misbehavior, and towering inequality, take that opportunity to declare war on populism? It tells us that they’ve lost any sense of their own movement as an expression of the vast majority. It tells us they have no idea why they believe they should be entrusted with power in the first place. And it reminds us that their particular brand of class-based self-delusion is a luxury that the rest of us can ill afford.
    https://thebaffler.com/intros-and-ma...eople-no-frank

  5. #5
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    "could win"
    Hole still out of sorts

  6. #6
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Huh?

  7. #7
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    sometimes you barely make any sense

  8. #8
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    He’s the favorite in 2020 imo. His approval rating sucks but he’s going to have a giant advantage avoiding the primary process while the Democratic primary will either (i) be a 15+ candidate show or (ii) be a heavily controlled process that produces a Clinton shill who does nothing to energize the base. Even though more moderate conservatives like CC would love to see him get primaried he’s way too popular with his base for that to happen, no one is going to even try it because it would be a career killer.

    If the Dems pick a moderate, “business friendly” Dem like Booker they’re toast imo.

  9. #9
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    He’s the favorite in 2020 imo. His approval rating sucks but he’s going to have a giant advantage avoiding the primary process while the Democratic primary will either (i) be a 15+ candidate show or (ii) be a heavily controlled process that produces a Clinton shill who does nothing to energize the base. Even though more moderate conservatives like CC would love to see him get primaried he’s way too popular with his base for that to happen, no one is going to even try it because it would be a career killer.

    If the Dems pick a moderate, “business friendly” Dem like Booker they’re toast imo.
    Yep.

    We've seen how well a soulless technocrat who connects better with donors than voters and has no concrete policies that will plausibly make their lives any better, can do.

    (Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, HRC)

  10. #10
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    Overwhelming favorite

    He might have better odds than the Warriors tbqh

  11. #11
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    Yep.

    We've seen how well a soulless technocrat who connects better with donors than voters and has no concrete policies that will plausibly make their lives any better, can do.

    (Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, HRC, Dole, McCain, Romney)
    fify

  12. #12
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  13. #13
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    Seems each side is pessimistic. On one hand, Trump won't seem as scary (people afraid he'll push the nuclear buttons) and on the other, I don't see him winning FL. If this fiasco is going on for senator and governor races, it'll be all out war for president plus those millions/hundreds of thousands? of ex-felons voting. I'm hoping for a left, left, left wing candidate so that those in the middle don't want to go there. No Biden please.

  14. #14
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Seems each side is pessimistic. On one hand, Trump won't seem as scary (people afraid he'll push the nuclear buttons) and on the other, I don't see him winning FL. If this fiasco is going on for senator and governor races, it'll be all out war for president plus those millions/hundreds of thousands? of ex-felons voting. I'm hoping for a left, left, left wing candidate so that those in the middle don't want to go there. No Biden please.
    A middle of the road Biden type candidate will ensure victory for Trump in Florida imo because the young voters/black voters who came out for Gilliam won’t turn out as much in 2020.

    Even though Nelson got more votes than Gilliam I think the high turnout from Dems that made these close races (vs the typical midterm election in Florida that’s solid red) was because they were excited about a progressive far left guy. If Gilliam isn’t running I think Nelson probably loses by a few hundred thousand votes.

  15. #15
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    A middle of the road Biden type candidate will ensure victory for Trump in Florida imo because the young voters/black voters who came out for Gilliam won’t turn out as much in 2020.

    Even though Nelson got more votes than Gilliam I think the high turnout from Dems that made these close races (vs the typical midterm election in Florida that’s solid red) was because they were excited about a progressive far left guy. If Gilliam isn’t running I think Nelson probably loses by a few hundred thousand votes.
    How is it logical that it's Gillum driving the young/black votes when less people voted for Gillum/DeSantis than Nelson/Scott - especially with these so-called 20k ballots in Broward with no senate candidate chosen? I think it's Floridians - not being quite ready for Gillum's progressive Medicare for All, $15 minimum wage and Obamacare Medicaid expansion.

    I think FL will be lost to Trump in 2020 and Biden would be formidable for Trump in PA, WI, and MI. But what do I know - I thought Hillary would win. Especially with Trump, 2 years out is an eternity.

  16. #16
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    How is it logical that it's Gillum driving the young/black votes when less people voted for Gillum/DeSantis than Nelson/Scott - especially with these so-called 20k ballots in Broward with no senate candidate chosen? I think it's Floridians - not being quite ready for Gillum's progressive Medicare for All, $15 minimum wage and Obamacare Medicaid expansion.

    I think FL will be lost to Trump in 2020 and Biden would be formidable for Trump in PA, WI, and MI. But what do I know - I thought Hillary would win. Especially with Trump, 2 years out is an eternity.
    It’s logical because I’m saying Nelson got all of the down the ballot votes from young/black progressives who never vote in midterms but came out to vote for Gillum, while Nelson still got more votes because there’s still a faction of moderates who like Nelson but think Gillum is to far to the left.

    Its similar to the seats that got flipped in Texas solely due to the voter turnout fueled by Beto.

  17. #17
    ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) AaronY's Avatar
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    I think Biden would beat Trump tbh. I think people overrate trump

  18. #18
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    I think Biden would beat Trump tbh. I think people overrate trump


    Thanks man needed a laugh. Crappy day

  19. #19
    ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) AaronY's Avatar
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    Thanks man needed a laugh. Crappy day
    excellent counterpoint

  20. #20
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Biden would because he’d steal the white trash vote in PA/WI/MI back, but I don’t think he has any interest in running.

    The biggest reason I say Trump is the favorite is because I think the Dems are going to up and pick someone like Booker.

  21. #21
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    Biden would because he’d steal the white trash vote in PA/WI/MI back, but I don’t think he has any interest in running.

    The biggest reason I say Trump is the favorite is because I think the Dems are going to up and pick someone like Booker.
    It's going to be hard to lose without hillary running. She was the worst candidate and she only still lost by a sum total of 70k or thereabout.

    I like how Virginia, Nevada and a couple of other states are become more reliably democratic so the next dem candidate is going to have a better chance at winning those odd states that would otherwise be a republican get no question.

    I would still try to avoid a Booker type though. Or any female candidate for that matter.

    I think Biden could run on the account that the potential dem field is so ty he's the only real answer, imo.

  22. #22
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    excellent counterpoint
    Certainly more excellent than the original point.

  23. #23
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    It's going to be hard to lose without hillary running. She was the worst candidate and she only still lost by a sum total of 70k or thereabout.

    I like how Virginia, Nevada and a couple of other states are become more reliably democratic so the next dem candidate is going to have a better chance at winning those odd states that would otherwise be a republican get no question.

    I would still try to avoid a Booker type though. Or any female candidate for that matter.

    I think Biden could run on the account that the potential dem field is so ty he's the only real answer, imo.
    No one will give a about showing up to vote for Booker while Trump will still turn out his base. If you take Clinton's 2016 map and add Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to it you get a razor thin victory for the Democrats with almost no room for error. If that's the Democrats' plan to run some pro business moderate who excites no one because they think they have the Clinton firewall back there is a great shot Trump gets re-elected. 2020 is in no way a slam dunk.

  24. #24
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    I think Biden would beat Trump tbh. I think people overrate trump
    You know Biden ran for POTUS twice and each time when people got a good look at him they didn't like him. The good ole workin class Joe persona falls apart pretty quick when the spotlight is turned on.

  25. #25
    ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) AaronY's Avatar
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    You know Biden ran for POTUS twice and each time when people got a good look at him they didn't like him. The good ole workin class Joe persona falls apart pretty quick when the spotlight is turned on.
    Well if he doesn't get through the primaries is because hes not far left enough tbh. He would probably have to pledge to abolish private property to satisfy the Bernie Bros/boutons s to get through the primaries. I want Mic e to run but I don't think she will

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