Reply With Quote
So the projection is flawed for the Spurs.
Those numbers include Kawhi as playing for the Spurs, and they basically have San Antonio in a big scrum for 4th-9th in the West. You have to remember stats models are going to discount Kawhi's playing time this year given he only played 9 games last season, they disapprove of letting Anderson go since he had a very strong plus-minus and they're going to project all of the 30+ guys to decline a bit from last year.
So the projection is flawed for the Spurs.
I wouldn't say that. Do you not think Kawhi's leg situation makes him more likely to miss time this season? If he's here, I hope he plays all 82, but models build in those type of discounts because historically missing a lot of time in one season raises the chances a player will be injured in the following year/s.
The model doesn't account for Kawhi playing. It just says impact times time played and gives a rough estimate of wins.
He is gonna play. That is a fact. Dude's been healthy for a while now. And he didn't break anything. If he played easy 60 wins. Maybe a little less for more resting.
Dude the model includes Kawhi.
https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/...91576753123329
Yes but only a small difference because he played like 9 ing games on minute restrictions.
It probably goes down 1 game at most.
It doesn't correctly account for Kawhi playing next year.
The tweet from the guy who built the model literally says the Spurs projection will "go way down" when Kawhi is traded.
The Spurs played without Kawhi last year and hit 47 and his model now has the same number with Kawhi playing? That's ing re ed at face value. Dont post dumb stuff no more.
Pretty clear you don't understand how projection systems work. The focus shouldn't be the exact win total--models are generally going to regress teams' wins toward the mean--but the Spurs' ranking in the West. Beyond that, who on the Spurs is going to be better than last season? 32 year old Aldridge? 38 year old Pau? 41 year old Ginobili? 31 y/o Danny? 31 y/o Rudy?
Murray is the only clear candidate for significant improvement.
Projections should project. This doesnt project. Its flawed. You wanna bet money if Kawhi stays how many wins we get?
You're right. No one on the Spurs will age. The fact that the Spurs' rotation is made up of mostly 30+ year olds--Aldridge, Manu, Marco, Pau, Danny & Rudy--doesn't make the team more prone to decline or injury. Kyle's strong defensive numbers were a fluke. He's slow after all, so the stats saying he's valuable must be flawed. The fact that the West got even better this offseason won't impact the Spurs at all. None of the talented young players on other teams across the league will improve. The Spurs will win exactly 61 win games again just like the last season Kawhi was healthy.
Thanks for showing me the light.
So you cant even agree with your own post. Watch more basketball young one. It's a ST lesson.
If Kawhi stays he'll get injured again and just hide from Pop in NY, so Spurs will have the same record as last year
Top 3 in the League.
He will likely play unless something dramatic happens in the way of an all-star being offered and Kawhi cooperating. I think the chemistry will be a problem early, but then the game will take over and we will be #2 or #3 in the West.
Spur fans still think the Spurs have the championship core. That team is gone.
They'd be a distant second best team in the league
he would lose endorsement money if he did that
How accurate was his model last year? Stats need to track real life to have any use.
A healthy Spurs with Kawhi at an MVP level should be the favorites against anyone other than GSW or Celtics.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
