2018 midterms: stats, analysis and prognostication

[ducks]

I do not tell people what to wear
Free speech

[RandomGuy]

Probably do a bit more come 2020, in time to draw new districts after the census.

[RandomGuy]

the brightest spot for Texas Dems was judgeships. 30 of 32 contested seats on Courts of Appeal went to Dems.

it was a good night for judicial reform.

That is the hard results. What I saw was a lot of people, newly engaged, who learned a lot from getting things organized, and networking. Democratic party withered for years, and there was not a lot of organizational experience collectively.

My local party learned a lot, and that seems to be reflected statewide. Texas is not going to be an easy "gimmie" going forward. Two more years of organizing and learning will do a lot.

I have also seen Republican county officials, as well as state officials pulling to keep Democrats from voting, such as redrawing districts in Democratic leaning areas in the last week before the election, and purges of rolls. You may expect to see a few lawsuits in the offing.

[TSA]

Trump loses less seats in the house than Clinton and Obama and actually picks up seats in the Senate and Dems think that’s a good sign for 2020?

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

Democrats +5 to +8 or so, it varies.

Dems capture almost all toss-ups. +9 (out of 11)
Dems capture all leans dems. +1
Dems capture all tilts dems +3
Dem capture all likely dems +3

This is a solid gain of at least 15 seats.

Capture 1/3 of the tilts GOP +8
Capture 1/6 of the leans GOP +2
Capture 1/12 of the likely GOP +2

Dems up 27 seats, a narrow majority, seems like the most likely result of such a perception deficit.

Still two months to go. I think the possibility of an outlier, i.e. a huge wave with a larger majority for the Dems is quite possible, albeit very unlikely. A lot will depend on who sits this one out.

GOP voters... always vote. There is little there to mine or improve.

The only real question is how successful our Democratic get out the vote efforts are.

Final tally was +40.

An actual blue wave.

[RandomGuy]

I think there's a good chance that the support for Trump brings more conservatives who normally don't vote in mid-terms out in November. I'm seeing a lot more discussion about the mid-terms among those that I know (mostly conservative) about going to vote. Ironically, the talk from liberals/media about the upcoming "Blue Wave" is energizing them to go vote in the mid-terms. These numbers probably don't show up in the primary voting stats because they'll vote conservative no matter who the party puts up there.

Also, a lot of the Hispanic people that I know who normally voted Democrat are very attracted/enthusiastic about Trump. I think you'll see a lot more support from 3rd/4th generation Hispanic immigrants who disagree with the Dem position on ILLEGAL immigration.

Didn't quite happen. Republicans who always vote... voted. It was busy in many places, but as noted, Democrats have a LOT more upside when it comes to turn out. Democrats outnumber Republicans overall, they just don't vote as much. Texas being the prime example.

[RandomGuy]

No blue wave without a black & brown wave. I don't see it happening considering even Obama couldn't make it happen in midterms. I expect another "shocking" election night complete with a pouting Rachel Maddow and Nate Silver explaining how the polls were right even when they were wrong.

I expect you to be telling me any day now about young white people are abandoning the Democratic party.

Young Voters Turned Out in Historic Numbers, Early Estimates Show
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics...estimates-show

https://civicyouth.org/state-by-stat...2018-midterms/

They showed up, and preferred Democrats by a two to one margin.

Tell me again how that is a winning strategy for the Trump party.

[RandomGuy]

Trump loses less seats in the house than Clinton and Obama and actually picks up seats in the Senate and Dems think that’s a good sign for 2020?

2010 losses Obama: -63
2014 losses Obama: -14

2018 Trump losses: -40

You were both right and wrong. Hard to beat the 2010 drubbing, due to the shift from successful gerrymandering efforts.

[RandomGuy]

Just donated to Susan Collins' future opponent.

Map for GOP in 2020 looks worse for the GOP than this year's did for Democrats. Odds are that the GOP will barely eke out a tiny majority (50-50 split).

That majority will likely go away in 2020.

2 more years of Trump will not make Democrats any less energized or women less angry.

Hays County sees major rise in voter registration
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/lo.../269-601408880



Don't mean if they don't get out to the polls, but we are continuing our voter outreach efforts. Nothing earth shattering, just a lot of polite conversations, and listening to people.

Went block walking with a local city council candidate, who has tapped into the progressive movement, and was entirely motivated, as many other women were, to run.

Progressives swept city council elections, due to our showing up for the thinly-voted runoff. The candidate I blockwalked for made it.

[RandomGuy]

Texas will make sure to purge registered voters mysteriously to keep the game rigged.

Like New York does for the Democrats here.

Also true, given the recent "muh illegal aliens are a votin'" effort by the SOS

[Will Hunting]

2010 losses Obama: -63
2014 losses Obama: -14

2018 Trump losses: -40

You were both right and wrong. Hard to beat the 2010 drubbing, due to the shift from successful gerrymandering efforts.

He was clearly referring to the 2010 elections (since he was comparing the first midterm of each president, not the 2nd term midterms) which weren't the product of gerrymandering, the redistricting happened after the 2010 census and didn't impact the 2010 elections, the 2010 elections had the same districts as the 2008 elections. The first election with the extremely gerrymandered districts was 2012 (and it's how the Republicans kept the house in spite of losing the overall popular vote).

The 2010 bloodbath was a product of millennials not showing up for midterm elections (I was guilty of that), minorities not showing up for midterm elections, and the tea party creating a huge block of extremely pissed off voters who were going to produce huge turnout.

I've said before that if Donald Trump is what makes it so millennials, blacks and hispanics actually turn out for midterm elections, then I'll happily live with him for 4 years of that's the outcome, the only caveat being his SCOTUS picks.

If Hillary won 2018 would have been another midterm election with horrific turnout for Democrats and I think the Republicans probably pick up a filibuster proof majority in the Senate which is a scary thought.

[Will Hunting]

The house was also a net loss of 41 for the Republicans with a chance of 42 depending on the special election in NC-9.

[RandomGuy]

He was clearly referring to the 2010 elections (since he was comparing the first midterm of each president, not the 2nd term midterms) which weren't the product of gerrymandering, the redistricting happened after the 2010 census and didn't impact the 2010 elections, the 2010 elections had the same districts as the 2008 elections. The first election with the extremely gerrymandered districts was 2012 (and it's how the Republicans kept the house in spite of losing the overall popular vote).

The 2010 bloodbath was a product of millennials not showing up for midterm elections (I was guilty of that), minorities not showing up for midterm elections, and the tea party creating a huge block of extremely pissed off voters who were going to produce huge turnout.

I've said before that if Donald Trump is what makes it so millennials, blacks and hispanics actually turn out for midterm elections, then I'll happily live with him for 4 years of that's the outcome, the only caveat being his SCOTUS picks.

If Hillary won 2018 would have been another midterm election with horrific turnout for Democrats and I think the Republicans probably pick up a filibuster proof majority in the Senate which is a scary thought.

I would agree on all counts. Hard to know which election he was referring to since he wasn't aware enough to specify, but safe to assume 2010, not 2014.

[RandomGuy]

Trump loses less seats in the house than Clinton and Obama and actually picks up seats in the Senate and Dems think that’s a good sign for 2020?

2020 looking very similar to 2018.

Early bellweathers show Dems at about where they were this time before the election.

President Injectovatch McBleachisfine is going to face some pretty brutal ads.

[Winehole23]

That said, I'd be fine with Menendez' losing that race.

a bad penny always turns up.

why does NJ like him so much?

[Winehole23]

Lie down with dogs, get fleas.

Bob Menendez is pretty much as sleazy as it gets in the US Senate.

Menendez got reelected.

He's cartoonishly and moustache-twirlingly corrupt, but maybe that's what people like about him.

[Thread]

Menendez got reelected.

He's cartoonishly and moustache-twirlingly corrupt, but maybe that's what people like about him.

They fixed the jury. Never a doubt.

[Winehole23]

lol

[RandomGuy]

lol

Is that real? (hard to tell these days)

[Winehole23]

Is that real? (hard to tell these days)

It's from the DOJ