Official 2023-24 Redistricting Thread

[Will Hunting]

It's more about religion and culture wars. Very few evangelicals up there. Most people in the northeast who are not liberal are either libertarian or moderate. Many of which still vote Democrat because they associate Republicans with evangelism. They'll vote for a Sununu or Phil Scott or even a Susan Collins type occasionally, but anyone remotely associated with being too religious is a hard no for them.

Yeah like I said, New Englanders think they’re re ed (not wrong since evangelicals are incredibly braindead useless people).

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Yeah like I said, New Englanders think they’re re ed (not wrong since evangelicals are incredibly braindead useless people).

I agree with you on evangelicals, but they're also voting for the party that wants to pay minorities free taxpayer money just because their ancestors (not them) were enslaved and/or treated poorly by segregation laws a very very long time ago (triple digit years). They're voting for the party that literally hates and wishes to replace white people and infest the country (all fifty states not just the Southern border states) with more millions of immigrants with questionable pasts, many of whom are criminals, have no money and need welfare, and don't speak English. They're voting for the party that preaches thinly veiled population control, similar to Communist China but by trickery instead of by force.

I'm an atheist, was born an atheist and will always be an atheist, but I'm not down with voting with the party of the ultra woke, particularly normalizing counterculture such as convincing more and more people that they were born the wrong gender or sexuality and need to go trans or gay to be accepted. To get gender change operations and render themselves permanently infertile for life. Beyond that, AI and automation has been a net negative on life, not positive. Free trade, once a GOP-positive issue and something many Dems fought against, now is a mainstream Democrat position, and helps all other countries not America. Similar goes for foreign wars and foreign intervention... the Dems literally had a blue tsunami in 2006 (that's still helping you in 2023 and into 2024 btw, consider Jon Tester, the WV seat, Sherrod Brown are still in bents for now, and others from the class of '06 like Bob Casey are likely to keep his seat another 6 years, etc) specifically over Bush's handling of the Iraq War and all of the violence overseas, and now it's the Dems who want to send troops and billions to Ukraine and Israel to police the world yet again just like they said they wouldn't in 2006 and other years because they wouldn't repeat Bush's mistakes.

[Thread]

I agree with you on evangelicals.

It's a great word to say though, ain't it? Makes ya hungry for like jelly beans---those black ones.

[boutons_deux]

State repugs Expected the supreme Court would okay their racial gerrymandering

What happened in Alabama is a warning to every other Confederate and Red State that it's going to happen to them

[Will Hunting]

State repugs Expected the supreme Court would okay their racial gerrymandering

What happened in Alabama is a warning to every other Confederate and Red State that it's going to happen to them

Not really.

Alabama's black population is compact enough to draw 2 black districts, and Alabama's lawyers were way too careless in how many facts they let the plaintiffs establish at the district court level.

There's almost no chance the pending VRA lawsuits are successful in LA, SC and GA.

Not because they don't have merit but because Kavanaugh would have never sided with the libs on this if Alabama's argument wasn't so terrible.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Not really.

Alabama's black population is compact enough to draw 2 black districts, and Alabama's lawyers were way too careless in how many facts they let the plaintiffs establish at the district court level.

There's almost no chance the pending VRA lawsuits are successful in LA, SC and GA.

Not because they don't have merit but because Kavanaugh would have never sided with the libs on this if Alabama's argument wasn't so terrible.

SCOTUS/7th Circuit Federal court should force redraw IL if for no other legal reason than diluting minority populations in metro Chicago for no other reason than partisan gerrymandering. While, in IL the metro area (i.e., the Dem base) is big and populated enough for the Dems to have a delegation majority, around 10-7, the geography is simply not there for a 14-3 delegation majority without a very ugly gerrymander cracking metro Chicago many many ways and bravo, it's currently the ugliest gerrymander standing in the entire USA at present. Also, as I've long withheld, 10-7 is representative of the state's current vote margin, similar to 5-2 in Alabama.

The rest of the maps I'm mostly okay with... in Ohio for example, you at least have Democrat representation in every major metro area. It remains to be seen if NY or NC will redraw and gain 2-4 seats in each direction, but I'm guessing if one will, the other will. Or NY can simply rely on the likelihood that 2022 was a fluke due to Lee Zeldin being top of the ticket.

[Will Hunting]

SCOTUS/7th Circuit Federal court should force redraw IL if for no other legal reason than diluting minority populations in metro Chicago for no other reason than partisan gerrymandering. While, in IL the metro area (i.e., the Dem base) is big and populated enough for the Dems to have a delegation majority, around 10-7, the geography is simply not there for a 14-3 delegation majority without a very ugly gerrymander cracking metro Chicago many many ways and bravo, it's currently the ugliest gerrymander standing in the entire USA at present. Also, as I've long withheld, 10-7 is representative of the state's current vote margin, similar to 5-2 in Alabama.

The rest of the maps I'm mostly okay with... in Ohio for example, you at least have Democrat representation in every major metro area. It remains to be seen if NY or NC will redraw and gain 2-4 seats in each direction, but I'm guessing if one will, the other will. Or NY can simply rely on the likelihood that 2022 was a fluke due to Lee Zeldin being top of the ticket.

1) your justification for redrawing Illinois is idiotic…there’s no VRA issues there to sue over.

2) your argument for why Ohio isn’t a gerrymander is just incoherent partisan hackery…”every major city has a Dem seat!” is just an arbitrary criteria you’re using to justify a gerrymander.

3) NC redrawing isn’t a mystery, it’s already said that it’s going to.

4) the NY redraw is a coin flip but it’s not going to have anything to do with NC

5) The Illinois gerrymander isn’t any worse than the Texas gerrymander.

[Winehole23]

MM spit roasted by Will. Again.

[Winehole23]

New proposed NC map. Dems currently hold 7 of 14 districts.

NC went for Trump 50-49 in 2020.

[Will Hunting]

New proposed NC map. Dems currently hold 7 of 14 districts.

NC went for Trump 50-49 in 2020.

Losing 3-4 seats was expected but my god, this is easily the most ruthless gerrymander I’ve ever seen.

They go above and beyond just drawing Republican seats, they crack liberal cities like Asheville even when they don’t need to just for the sake of saying you libs.

[Thread]

Losing 3-4 seats was expected but my god, this is easily the most ruthless gerrymander I’ve ever seen.

They go above and beyond just drawing Republican seats, they crack liberal cities like Asheville even when they don’t need to just for the sake of saying you libs.

...thank Christ.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Single member district is a blight.

[Winehole23]

Losing 3-4 seats was expected but my god, this is easily the most ruthless gerrymander I’ve ever seen.

They go above and beyond just drawing Republican seats, they crack liberal cities like Asheville even when they don’t need to just for the sake of saying you libs.

also, NC passed laws preventing a gubernatorial veto and shielded deliberations from public information requests. The certain VRA challenges will be a hard slog.

[Will Hunting]

also, NC passed laws preventing a gubernatorial veto and shielded deliberations from public information requests. The certain VRA challenges will be a hard slog.

I don’t see VRA challenges going anywhere. The way NC’s black population is distributed makes it hard to argue there’s a viable majority black VAP district.

Also NC never had a gubernatorial veto over redistricting. It’s always had an extremely weak executive office and a state legislature that’s been reluctant to give up power (be it a Dem controlled or Republican controlled state leg)…the grand bargain made back when the governor was given veto power several decades ago was that the veto power wouldn’t be over redistricting and it could be overridden by a 60% vote rather than the typical 2/3rds super majority most other states have.

[Cry Havoc]

...thank Christ.

and you whine about Democracy. Straight up pathetic, Thread.

[Thread]

and you whine about Democracy. Straight up pathetic, Thread.

Sure I do...American Democracy, my ass.

[Cry Havoc]

Sure I do...American Democracy, my ass.

[Will Hunting]

New proposed NC map. Dems currently hold 7 of 14 districts.

NC went for Trump 50-49 in 2020.

Worth noting that I think NC ends up passing its 10-3-1 map that was proposed jointly with this one but that’s just a guess.

I think the point of this map was to basically tell potential VRA lawsuit plaintiffs that they can make the gerrymander even worse so don’t push their luck.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Losing 3-4 seats was expected but my god, this is easily the most ruthless gerrymander I’ve ever seen.

They go above and beyond just drawing Republican seats, they crack liberal cities like Asheville even when they don’t need to just for the sake of saying you libs.

They actually do kind of need to to get a 11-3 map, I've played around with NC a lot over the last couple years in DRA and the best way to get a red district around Charlotte and maxing out the rest of the state, is, indeed, cracking Asheville, even though it's far to the west, cracking it has a lot of effects all the way eastward.

Realistically though it's not worse than Illinois. Maybe on par, but, Illinois is currently 14-3 D while this is only 11-3 R.

It's basically the " You JB Pritzker" map. I don't agree with either one, but if you have one, you kinda gotta have the other to achieve equilibrium.

This is also VERY similar to the 11-3 R NC map I drew in DRA last year, the main difference being the numbered districts are somewhat different but that's academic.

Worth noting that I think NC ends up passing its 10-3-1 map that was proposed jointly with this one but that’s just a guess.

I think the point of this map was to basically tell potential VRA lawsuit plaintiffs that they can make the gerrymander even worse so don’t push their luck.

I think they might pass the 11-3 map after seeing the second blue district forced on Alabama for now... their original plan was to go 10-4 (and avoid drawing out Don Davis at all costs) but given the narrow majority in the already volatile House they see national implications and they don't want a speaker Jeffries/Dem House majority any more than the next conservative.

Be curious to see if Don Davis is still considered the in bent since they did call NC-01 that new very blue district with all the black belt areas.

The GOP state legislature said they would "save" Don Davis's seat, I wonder if they still consider this to be saving it because they figure the black plurality would overwhelmingly pick Davis in the primary over the other in bent.

[Millennial_Messiah]

it's worth noting though, ideally you give the GOP 4 seats in Illinois and keep the current map in NC which is a fair map in a vacuum. That would be "fair" and proportional ...unfortunately that's not how politics works and Illinois and NC don't have anti gerrymandering laws.

[Will Hunting]

it's worth noting though, ideally you give the GOP 4 seats in Illinois and keep the current map in NC which is a fair map in a vacuum. That would be "fair" and proportional ...unfortunately that's not how politics works and Illinois and NC don't have anti gerrymandering laws.

you conveniently and moan about Illinois but pretend Texas, Utah, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio, Florida, Oklahoma and South Carolina all have perfectly fair map.

[Will Hunting]

As I said they likely would, the NC general assembly is picking the less ruthless 10-3-1 map that largely leaves Don Davis’s district intact.

That being said, the one compe ive district is a district Biden barely won and its rural black population is rapidly declining. The good news is that Sandy Smith was an awful candidate in 2022 and she’s running again, but I doubt the NCGOP supports her.

If it’s a Don Davis vs. Sandy Smith rematch I rate it as lean D. If the R candidate is someone more competent is rate it as tilt R. Sounds extreme for a Biden district with a D in bent but that’s how quickly the black belt is losing population.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

As I said they likely would, the NC general assembly is picking the less ruthless 10-3-1 map that largely leaves Don Davis’s district intact.

That being said, the one compe ive district is a district Biden barely won and its rural black population is rapidly declining. The good news is that Sandy Smith was an awful candidate in 2022 and she’s running again, but I doubt the NCGOP supports her.

If it’s a Don Davis vs. Sandy Smith rematch I rate it as lean D. If the R candidate is someone more competent is rate it as tilt R. Sounds extreme for a Biden district with a D in bent but that’s how quickly the black belt is losing population.

Where do you have the link to this info? I can't find it anywhere on Google, and 538 stopped updating the map stuff last year.

I knew they wouldn't draw out Davis, he's the NCGOP's favorite Democrat for some reason. I was thinking they might pick that ultra aggressive version and just proclaim Davis to be the in bent of that deep-blue larger district that sprawls northeast of the RTP NC-02 blue district, since it's already labeled as NC-01.

So if what you're saying is true, the current scorecard is

Democrat +1 Flip (AL)
GOP +3 Flip (NC) [-I don't think Don Davis loses re-election in any case in a general election year]

New York - ????


Seats likely to flip in any case:

OH-13: blue to red
NE-02: red to blue
WA-03: blue to red
OR-05: red to blue

I think with the current map in New York the GOP nets 2 losses, Lawler is a popular in bent but Santos is toast and D'Esposito is somewhat moderate and popular but Biden is likely to win that seat fairly comfortably and probably carry the (D) challenger to a slim victory there.

California to me is one where I could see all the in bents on both sides holding serve in 2024, barring a radical change in events between now and then. The Central Valley is trending right and the Orange County area (R)s are popular in bents who toe the line well.

Nevada's 3 Democrat seats have the potential to flip (unlikely all 3, but we'll see) or not... really depends on how well Trump and the Senate candidate do there statewide IMO, which is a crapshoot. NM-02 might flip back if Harrell is running again; it's a coin flip there in a presidential election year.

Trump will carry Van Orden in WI-03; that's a district that's generally low turnout but turns out well for Trump. MI-07 is a toss up with Slotkin on the Senate ticket. Don't see Jared Golden losing even on the same ticket as Trump; college-educated white secular people are the most likely demographic to split-ticket. I see Schweikert in AZ holding on narrowly one more time, but if Trump wins the general next year then someone like Schweikert, and some of the CA and NY GOP delegation, and likely the House GOP majority itself will most likely be toast in 2026.

Another one to keep an eye on is MT-01. That area of the state has been trending blue while the other district has trended red. If Jon Tester comes close (he won't win, but let's just say he comes within 5%) I could very well see the (D) challenger upending Zinke.

[Will Hunting]

Where do you have the link to this info? I can't find it anywhere on Google, and 538 stopped updating the map stuff last year.

I knew they wouldn't draw out Davis, he's the NCGOP's favorite Democrat for some reason. I was thinking they might pick that ultra aggressive version and just proclaim Davis to be the in bent of that deep-blue larger district that sprawls northeast of the RTP NC-02 blue district, since it's already labeled as NC-01.

So if what you're saying is true, the current scorecard is

Democrat +1 Flip (AL)
GOP +3 Flip (NC) [-I don't think Don Davis loses re-election in any case in a general election year]

New York - ????


Seats likely to flip in any case:

OH-13: blue to red
NE-02: red to blue
WA-03: blue to red
OR-05: red to blue

I think with the current map in New York the GOP nets 2 losses, Lawler is a popular in bent but Santos is toast and D'Esposito is somewhat moderate and popular but Biden is likely to win that seat fairly comfortably and probably carry the (D) challenger to a slim victory there.

California to me is one where I could see all the in bents on both sides holding serve in 2024, barring a radical change in events between now and then. The Central Valley is trending right and the Orange County area (R)s are popular in bents who toe the line well.

Nevada's 3 Democrat seats have the potential to flip (unlikely all 3, but we'll see) or not... really depends on how well Trump and the Senate candidate do there statewide IMO, which is a crapshoot. NM-02 might flip back if Harrell is running again; it's a coin flip there in a presidential election year.

Trump will carry Van Orden in WI-03; that's a district that's generally low turnout but turns out well for Trump. MI-07 is a toss up with Slotkin on the Senate ticket. Don't see Jared Golden losing even on the same ticket as Trump; college-educated white secular people are the most likely demographic to split-ticket. I see Schweikert in AZ holding on narrowly one more time, but if Trump wins the general next year then someone like Schweikert, and some of the CA and NY GOP delegation, and likely the House GOP majority itself will most likely be toast in 2026.

Another one to keep an eye on is MT-01. That area of the state has been trending blue while the other district has trended red. If Jon Tester comes close (he won't win, but let's just say he comes withing 5%) I could very well see the (D) challenger upending Zinke.

I’m in a Twitter groupchat with Dan Bishop’s son that’s how I know

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I’m in a Twitter groupchat with Dan Bishop’s son that’s how I know

Jack Bishop, the kid that came on Fox in 2019 saying he was assaulted by antifa on the NC State campus? That guy is pretty conservative; surprised you and him could be friends.

another wild card I left out was that there's been some rumor that Zeldin might run for Santos's seat, in which case it'd be a hold instead of a flip.

I didn't mention Alaska but I assume Peltola could lose if it's 1 vs 1 rather than 1 vs 2? Even with ranked choice voting, Sarah Palin and Trump really screwed Nick Begich last year imo