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Does it take tanking into account?
In another thread, I noted that the 5-man lineup with the most minutes for the Spurs last year only put in 189 minutes together. Compare this to the lineup that lead the league in minutes, a Sacramento 5 that logged 900 minutes. That got me wondering how many minutes a "core" 5-man lineup typically puts in under coach Pop, and if we can use that data to project what kind of frequency our core 5 might have this season.
This table outlines a few things I picked out, that you can see.
Year Lineup Games Minutes NetRtg 2nd 5 Minutes 2nd 5 NetRtg League Leader Minutes 2007-08 Finley-Bowen-Duncan-Parker-Oberto 49 420 1.9 167 11.0 1210 2008-09 Finley-Duncan-Parker-Mason-Bonner 57 554 8.1 158 5.2 1075 2009-10 McDyess-Duncan-Ginobili-Jefferson-Hill 29 231 10.5 191 10.9 1475 2010-11 Duncan-Ginobili-Jefferson-Parker-Blair 62 688 10.7 229 13.4 953 2011-12 Duncan-Jefferson-Parker-Blair-Leonard 19 190 4.0 147 0.7 1000 2012-13 Duncan-Parker-Splitter-Green-Leonard 31 364 18.1 153 10.8 1307 2013-14 Duncan-Parker-Splitter-Green-Leonard 30 262 13.7 193 5.9 1468 2014-15 Duncan-Parker-Diaw-Green-Leonard 44 266 11.0 265 22.1 1217 2015-16 Duncan-Parker-Aldridge-Green-Leonard 47 698 9.2 185 5.2 915 2016-17 Gasol-Parker-Aldridge-Green-Leonard 34 392 9.4 257 3.9 1347 2017-18 Aldridge-Green-Mills-Anderson-Murray 21 189 12.0 156 8.2 1131 2018-19 Aldridge-Gay-DeRozan-Forbes-White 41 388 4.8 187 -4.6 919 2019-20 Aldridge-DeRozan-Lyles-Murray-Forbes 40 505 0.0 130 10.2 735 2020-21 DeRozan-Murray-Poeltl-White-Johnson 24 333 6.0 219 -12.5 706 2021-22 McDermott-Murray-Poeltl-White-Johnson 25 308 5.4 152 -1.0 761 2022-23 Poeltl-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan 18 189 -0.8 112 -8.0 900
A few observations:
- you can really see in the data (though maybe not this table) how the league started load managing. In 2007-08, there were 5 linups that put in over 900 minutes, whereas there was only 1 in 2022-23, and then a big drop off after that one.
- in 2008-09 our third most used lineup (Thomas-Finley-Parker-Mason-Bonner) had a Net Rating of 26.4!
- our third most used lineup in 2015-16 was the "All Star" lineup of Duncan-Manu-Tony-Aldridge-Leonard and had a Net Rating of 18.5
- You can see how good our teams in the mid-teens were. A real shame we only got 1 le out of that
- You can see just how terrible last year's team was. The first time a Pop core lineup had a negative net rating (though the 19-20 team came close)
Back when teams were pumping in 1000+ minutes for the core lineups, they were playing 60, 70+ games together. As you can see, that's never really been a thing under Pop. This can be for a mul ude of reasons, health being a major one, but for the most part you can expect a lot of lineups and it is unlikely that any one will put in over 500 minutes together on the floor. We will have to see how the health of guys holds up, and if Wemby gets load managed.
Our core 5 had an insane, not at all sustainable NetRtg in the pre-season, it will be interesting to see that develop over time and how it compares to other lineups.
I found all this interesting and potentially informative, hope you do too.
And a source link for anyone who wants to dig in further: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/ad...22-23&TeamID=0
Last edited by scott; 10-25-2023 at 04:23 PM.
Does it take tanking into account?
unfathomable that forbes cracked this list twice
Another reason why the Spurs should be way better this season is cause Keldon, Vassell and Sochan only played 300 minutes together to ensure the tank
And, maybe this will get annoying for people who maybe don't care, but I'll try to update this every 10 games or so with stats on our top lineup combos
Yeah Southwest Division is ripe for the taking. Grizz are vunerable.
I won't do this after every game, because one game samples aren't really that insightful, but here is lineup performance for each lineup that put in 3 more minutes yesterday
LINEUPS TEAM GP MIN OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG AST% AST/TO AST RATIO OREB% DREB% REB% TO RATIO EFG% TS% PACE PIE Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - J. Sochan - V. Wembanyama SAS 1 11 95.8 104.2 -8.3 87.5 1 20.6 33.3 80 57.9 0.3 52.9 58.6 108.85 50 C. Osman - C. Bassey - D. Vassell - T. Jones - M. Branham SAS 1 4 122.2 122.2 0 50 1 16.7 33.3 60 50 0.2 64.3 69.8 116.76 52.9 C. Osman - K. Johnson - C. Bassey - T. Jones - M. Branham SAS 1 4 112.5 162.5 -50 75 0 23.1 50 66.7 55.6 0 45 45 101.95 37 C. Osman - Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - J. Sochan SAS 1 3 75 157.1 -82.1 100 1.5 27.3 0 66.7 33.3 0.3 60 60 134.16 35.9 C. Osman - Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - T. Jones SAS 1 3 116.7 133.3 -16.7 66.7 2 20 75 100 83.3 0.2 50 50 105.37 34.5 D. McDermott - Z. Collins - K. Johnson - D. Vassell - J. Sochan SAS 1 3 114.3 57.1 57.1 33.3 0.5 12.5 0 83.3 71.4 0.3 75 69.4 105.55 123.1
Nice work sir!!
Sweeeeeet!!!
Preview of what's to come offensively for this starting lineup. If Jones has in fact turned himself into a credible enough 3 point shooter for the defense to respect (even if he's legit, that'll take a minute), he might be able to save them from inevitable bottom of the barrel status.
Tre Jones looks so damn grown man. His pace, his build, his newly found 3pt shot, his demeanour. He really could help Wemby become the lob threat he is.
Best thread on spurstalk in awhile
Couldn't resist a 3 game updates. There is pretty clear standout data here from a VERY early sample size. (Only included lineups that have played all 3 games and over 5 minutes).
Lineup Min Off Rtg Def Rtg Net Rtg Ast/TO Reb % EFG% Pace PIE Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama 32 75.0 108.3 -33.3 1.06 47.9 39.3 108.91 30.3 Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama 13 103.7 92.3 11.4 1.67 51.7 40.0 100.98 74.6 Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 10 83.3 129.2 -45.8 1.00 29.4 57.1 117.55 33.7 Osman-Bassey-Jones-Branham-Wembanyama 7 117.6 77.8 39.9 2.50 40.0 66.7 114.42 67.2 Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones 6 133.3 138.5 -5.1 1.00 80 72.7 101.69 35.9
Notes:
- I included PIE in this table, although I don't like PIE for a couple of reasons. But I included it anyway just to give you a gauge of how efficient certain lineups are compared to others.
- This will likely be the standard table I used to update throughout the reason. I might start looking at some 3-man lineups once the sample size increases.
Observations:
- There are a couple of very obvious correlations here, but I wouldn't read too much into it now given the very small sample size. But it kind of backs up common sense and things most of us can see with our own eyes.
- Turnovers! The better lineups are the ones that don't turn the ball over! Duh!
- Sochan! The top two lineups only have one difference between them: Tre in for Jeremy. The results are STARK. I think we should be starting Tre, but that doesn't mean this can't turn around.
- But because I can, through 3 games:
- Jeremy: -0.014 WS/48, -5.7 OBPM, -1.5 DBPM, -7.1 BPM, -0.1 VORP, -48
- Tre: 0.127 WS/48, -0.4 OBPM, -1.4 DBPM, -1.8 BPM, 0.0 VORP, +15
See ya at the next update
for all of Tre's issues, he is generally quite good at taking care of the ball, has had good assist/to ratios for his career, so those figures arent surprising
its also why his 4 TOs against the clippers was very disappointing. didnt expect him to spearhead a comeback, but didnt think he would contribute to the main problem either
The increase in the AST/TO ratio with Tre in for Jeremy didn't surprise me, that could be expected, but it's the stark improvement in the DRTG that stands out in this very limited sample size. Jeremy is supposed to be a defensive ace who can guard multiple positions, yet our D is markedly worse with him in the lineup. Obviously, this can be for a number of reasons and I'll once again state THIS IS VERY LIMITED SAMPLE size, but the early trends cannot go ignored. If I get time I'll run some 3-man lineups and see if there is a constant around Jeremy's D. (And 3 man lineups by their nature will yield a larger, but still not yet large enough, sample size)
aside from the houston game, you can say its just a matchup issue
guy spent most of his minutes against dallas on luka, and ditto with kawhi
would figure he'd fare better against reserves, and the defensive rating would reflect that.
then again we invested a top 10 pick in him because he's supposed to be that guy. maybe its just too early and he's too young to have that expectation i dno. but then it would be equally unfair to him to just throw him out at point guard
if you make shots on offense you can set your defense. That alone makes the defense with Tre Jones out there better
Seven games in and we have 5 lineups that have played more than 10 minutes together. The starting 5 lineup has improved since the last update, but the analysis of 5-man lineups still provides plenty of fuel for those who don't like Sochan at the point: simply replacing him with Jones yields one of our best lineups. There will be some shuffling of our top lines with Vassell out over the next few games of course.
Lineup Min Off Rtg Def Rtg Net Rtg Ast/TO Reb % EFG% Pace PIE Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama 48 83.0 107.5 -24.5 1.58 48.0 44.3 106.52 38.2 Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama 24 107.8 127.5 -19.6 1.88 53.2 54.4 101.44 46.7 Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama 16 114.3 85.3 29.0 2.00 52.8 44.6 100.49 79.5 Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 11 82.1 129.6 -47.5 1.00 30.0 55.9 115.12 30.5 McDermott-COllins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 11 116.0 92.6 23.4 1.75 52.4 65.0 110.28 59.4
Update after 10 Games. One note, I've seen some smart analytics folks comment that line-up data is still too early to draw too many conclusions to, you really need about 1000 possessions before the data becomes statistically significant, and no player has put in more than 818 possessions so far this year. But in any event, here are our 5 most common lineups:
Lineup Min Off Rtg Def Rtg Net Rtg Ast/TO Reb % EFG% Pace PIE Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama 76 90.4 104.2 -13.8 1.47 51.2 46.8 105.74 43.03 Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama 37 100.0 144.6 -44.6 2.20 46.3 50.0 97.32 36.9 Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 16 94.7 115.8 -21.1 1.57 34.4 57.1 112.82 42.3 Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama 16 114.3 85.3 29.0 2.00 52.8 44.6 100.49 79.5 McDermott-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 13 120.0 100.0 20.0 1.80 52.2 59.6 109.53 57.9
We've seen some major improvement in the numbers from the starting 5, which is good to see, however, Jones for Sochan (though on a much lower sample size) is still the sub that yields our best lineup.
I was surprised to see that Lineup #3, with fast pace and good shooting, still be such a net negative. Osman for Wemby is usually our first sub of the game around the 6 minute mark, and you can see the hit our defense takes for a slight improvement in ORtg, which isn't surprising since Wemby has started poorly in almost every game.
We only have four lineups with more than 10 minutes with a positive Net Rating (our starting lineup is the 5th best lineup). Not surprisingly, our closing lineup (and what many would prefer be our starting lineup) is by far our best lineup so far this season, though a very small sample size over only 4 games played together.
Lineup Min Off Rtg Def Rtg Net Rtg Ast/TO Reb % EFG% Pace PIE Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby 11 153.6 96.6 57.0 2.75 42.9 87.5 124.31 78.9 Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Wembanyama 16 114.3 85.3 29.0 2.00 52.8 44.6 100.49 79.5 Osman-Bassey-Jones-Branham-Wembanyama 11 92.3 69.2 23.1 1.20 48.0 52.2 111.51 59.2 McDermott-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 13 120.0 100.0 20.0 1.80 52.2 69.6 109.53 57.9
All of the below are a min of 10 minutes played.
Our best lineup by ORtg is that Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wemby lineup above. Second is Osman-Collins-Johnson-Jones-Branham in 10 minutes over 6 games.
Our best defensive lineup by DRtg is Osman-Bassey-Jones-Branham-Wemby in 11 minutes over 5 games. #2 is Collins-Keldon-Dev-Tre-Wemby.
Our worst lineup by ORtg is the starting 5, followed by our best defensive lineup listed in the point above.
Our worst lineup by DRtg is Osman-Collins-Johnson-Branham-Jones with a 166.7 in 10 minutes over 6 games. Next is Collins-Johnson-Bran-Sochan-Wemby, our second most played lineup with 37 minutes.
Our two most efficiency lineups, as measured by PIE (which is a metric similar to PER) is the Jones in for Sochan lineup at 79.5, followed by the "Closing" lineup at 78.9.
I'll do another update at 20 games if not before.
Great content
considering the youth of this squad, the lack of a specific scheme and the fact that sochan is playing a position that is brand new to him, i would think that even 1,000 possessions is too small a sample size.
the one thing that this metric certainly confirms is just how much of a drop off there is from our tier 1 talent to our tier 2 talent.
Yes, excellent stuff. We appreciate the meat being brought to the party.
A 20 game (Actually 21) update:
We have exactly 5 lineups who have played together 20 or more minutes, so here they are:
Lineup GP Min Off Rtg Def Rtg Net Rtg Ast/TO Reb % EFG% Pace PIE Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama 11 88 83.8 110.8 -17.1 1.51 51.6 47.8 104.76 41.8 Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama 10 84 110.6 126.3 -15.7 1.96 51.9 56.6 102.9 45.7 Collins-Johnson-Champagnie-Sochan-Wembanyama 3 34 114.7 108.6 6.1 1.83 55.9 54.9 98.77 50.3 Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wembanyama 8 21 132.0 90.7 41.3 2.83 43.2 65.5 119.61 70.2 Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan 9 20 95.7 113.6 -18.0 1.2 38.9 55.9 110.39 41.7
The starting lineup that most of us want but Pop refuses to play, Tre-Dev-KJ-Sochan-Wemby continues to be our best lineup by a wide margin in pretty much every measure other than rebounding.
30 game Update. I set the cutoff at 25 minutes.
Notably, the lineup that was the most played at the 21 game mark (Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wemby) has not played a single minute together since. There has been a definite shift away from the Sochan PG with Collins/Wemby line. Our second most frequent line at the last update (now 3rd most frequent) also has not logged another minute since (not surprising, since that lineup is just subbing Dev for Bran).
Also, the new starting lineup IS A NET POSITIVE!!!! Not really very good offensively, but a sub 100 D-Rtg! Amazing! ou can also see the impact of Wemby versus Collins by comparing lineup 1 vs lineup 4, which simply subs Wemby out for Zach. There is a startling difference there, with a 24.9 NetRtg swing. Tough look for a guy who just got a big extension.
Last note on 5-man lineups, the lineup a lot of people think should be the starting 5 (Jones-Vassell-Johnson-Sochan-Wemby) remains far and away our best lineup with a 25.9 NetRtg. We may not be professionals on this board, but we can see things that are obvious. Rebounding predictably suffers with that unit, as Jeremy has proven to be an underwhelming rebounder.
Lineup GP Min Off Rtg Def Rtg Net Rtg Ast/TO Reb % EFG% Pace PIE 1 Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama 8 88 102.0 99.5 2.5 1.5 50.5 53.6 108.4 51.3 2 Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Sochan-Wembanyama 11 88 83.8 110.8 -17.1 1.51 51.6 47.8 104.76 41.8 3 Collins-Johnson-Branham-Sochan-Wembanyama 10 84 110.6 126.3 -15.7 1.96 51.9 56.6 102.9 45.7 4 Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Branham-Sochan 10 38 93.5 115.9 -22.4 1.38 52.4 46.3 112.85 35.8 5 Collins-Johnson-Champagnie-Sochan-Wembanyama 3 34 114.7 108.6 6.1 1.83 55.9 54.9 98.77 50.3 6 Osman-Collins-Johnson-Vassell-Jones 14 28 106.3 119.0 -12.8 1.73 51.6 53.6 109.57 42.7 7 Johnson-Vassell-Jones-Sochan-Wembanyama 11 27 131.7 105.9 25.9 2.75 40.7 65.7 114.63 60.9
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