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7th and 8th and its not a close decision
Would you rather the Raptors 2024 draft pick not convey this season and recieve just 1 draft pick, or convey this season and end up with the 7th (Spurs) & 8th (Raptors) draft pick and if so, what player/s would you want the Spurs to select as their draft selections?
7th and 8th and its not a close decision
Definitely 7th and 8th. Bird in the hand when it comes to the Craptors 1st, for reasons I've said ad nauseam.
Plus, in this draft, 7 and 8 might get them to 3.
Even if the most desired prospect was there at 3 I’d still want 7 and 8. This draft is hardcore garbage.
tbh im not sure i'd want the #1 overall pick instead of #8 and #9 this year
and thats without factoring in the "bird in the hand" aspect with toronto's pick
only scenario where the #1 pick would be better is if the decision makers who are much smarter than me have an extremely high confidence level in Wemby-Sarr being able to coexist well
Definitely 7th and 8th. If they wanted, they could package those picks and move into the top 5 pretty easily tbh.
I fully understand that we want that Rap pick to convey. But I think we’d end up with a better player if it lands in the 10-14 range next year.
I don't want any of these point guards.
Rather have just one wing instead of a wing and a guard.
Two wings would be the best outcome.
Problem is you don't want to be developing four rookies in 25, which could be likely if the Toronto pick doesn't convey this year since the Chicago 2025 is only top 10 protected.
In this draft I think I'd rather have 7 and 8
7 and 8. Then I'd package them along with the CHI pick to move up to 3.
(That last part is a joke. 7 and 8.)
7 and 8 and I'll tell you why mathematically.
Let's say the #3 draft pick has a 70% chance of having a successful career and let's say the 7th and 8th picks each have a 50% chance of having a successful career. Given that, the probability that at least one of the 7th and 8th picks having a successful career is 1-(0.5*0.5)=0.75 or 75%.
Therefore, the probability that at least one of the 7th and 8th picks having a successful career is higher than just the 3rd pick having a successful career, so it's better to have 7 and 8 than just 3.
do you know that the 50% and 75% numbers are accurate? could throw off your numbers if thats your basis
I found this graph on 82games.com that speaks to this question.
The "relative value" of pick #3, according to their data, is 87%, while for picks 7 and 8, it's 70% and 66% respectively. If we interpret "relative value" to mean "the probability that a player's career pans out" (that's not how the author defines it, but let's just go with that for the sake of simplicity), the probability of 7 and 8 resulting in a good player is still higher than just 3 alone.
In this below average draft, definitely 7 & 8. We'll have picks next year in a much better draft class.
7 and 8, purely because I’m sure the Spurs FO have throbbing boners for players that could be had at 20 and 21
No get wings next year.
Next year the wings are better in the draft and it's loaded with wings in the current projected top 10. The wings this year aren't any better than the pgs.
7 & 8....without question
Are the players really better next year in the 10-14 range? Draft might be better at the top but is it really better in the middle?
In most drafts it would be #3 but not this year.
My first guess is that the "success rate" of the 3rd pick would probably not be all that different from the success rate of the 7th or 8th pick, but I decide to do a cursory level of research:
This first analysis is a bit dated, but from the 1989-2008 drafts, the 3rd pick was actually the best at generating Star level players (but the definitions provided by the study), and had a 95% success rate at getting at least a "Solid" player, whereas 7 and 8 were only 70% and 50%, respectively. https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
This next study is a little more recent, looking at 1989-2019 drafts. Interesting, the 3rd pick was again the sweet spot, with a 57% chance of becoming an all-star, second only to the #1 pick at a 63% chance. #7 only had a 10% chance and #8 only a 3% chance. https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what...k-2d113d6b82e5
This study doesn't directly address the question but I found it interesting: https://tonyelhabr.github.io/nba-dec...ick-value.html
This study might be my favorite but doesn't provide data tables to pull from - but you can see by the visualizations (specifically the two with "Tier Percentage by Pick" that there is a significant drop off from pick #3 (which is again, better than pick #2 over time, which is very interesting). Just eyeballing it, it looks like Pick #3 ends up being a starting caliber player (by the PER definitions provided) about 65% of the time, whereas #7 is only around 35% of the time and #8 is only around 20% of the time. Things look a little better for picks 7 and 8 when you only look at their best 3 best seasons, but here is still a big drop off. https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com...ba_first_round
So maybe we are looking at this wrong and that the #3 pick is the correct choice if you go by the math.
#3 definitely…
not confident that this current spurs front office will nail two good picks at 7/8
but if picking at #3 -even these dumbasses should be able to suss out who the top three best players are and can surely pick whichever of those 3 - is still there at #3
If those numbers are correct, then you’re right. The math is telling us that the #3 pick is indeed the correct answer.
7th and 8th because this draft is a draft where the number 1 pick is as good as any pick in the top 10 when it comes to talent. Spurs have 2 shots at getting a good prospect with 7th and 8th. No guaranteed they will nail it with one of those 2 picks, but I liked the odds of getting 2 chances of possibly picking up a good player.
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