Anybody read that Ian Thomsen SI.com article?

[magui86770]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ian_thomsen/07/25/weekly.countdown/index.html

He brings up a good point about Duncan I have not consider(excerpt)

"2. Hungriest contenders. This is a vital category: Which of the elite teams most wants and needs to win the championship? It's one of the hardest qualities to gauge in each conference.

b. The Spurs. This is not to say that the Spurs will necessarily return to the Finals, or that they'll dominate during the regular season as they work in new complementary players. I can, however, imagine that Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Bruce Bowen will spend the season ahead making it clear to everyone else in their organization of their intention to win at least one more title before they're all washed up. They have faith on their side, based on the fact that they've won four times already, convincing teammates that the hardest work will be rewarded.

Let me add the obvious statement here -- that I may be entirely wrong in this prediction. There is another opinion widespread in the league that Duncan is worn down by having averaged 93 games over the last eight extended seasons. In which case, can Kobe and Phil Jackson influence the young Lakers to grow up fast (or will they trade for veteran depth)? Will the young Hornets feel the urgency to win now?"


When will it catch up?

[Manufan909]

Tim Duncan never gets old.

[XTah]

Doesn't anybody actually look at how Duncan was doing in the playoffs before making statements like that?

[duncan228]

Duncan is still hungry. We saw it in the Playoffs last year, I guarantee we'll see it again this season. He's far from done and he's got more Titles in him. :)

[1Parker1]

I'd say it's harder on Kobe if he wants to use the argument of amount of games played during the season throughout a career.

[ChumpDumper]

It's pretty obvious who was worn out on the team. It wasn't Duncan.

[XTah]

I find it really sad that everybody overlooks Duncan and the Spurs. People look at Duncan and his somewhat declining numbers and see someone who's getting old. I look at Duncan and see a person who is willing to let Parker and Ginobili and the other Spurs get more stats as they get better. Yet they look at Garnett and Pierce and Allen's declining stats and say look, "they're being unselfish", even though they're about as old/older than the Spurs big Three. Don't get me wrong, I think that the Celtics were being unselfish, but why can't we have fair comparisons?
Then they look at the Spurs and say, "oh they're getting older, they won't be as good." I say with everybody healthy, they've got a better team than they had last year.

[duncan228]

Thomsen's predictions from the article:

Weekly Countdown: An early look at what may be in store in 2008-09
Ian Thomsen

I have the right to predict what may happen next season, even at this early date. And I have the right to change my mind in the months ahead, based on pending events and an unexpected leap in wisdom.

5 Premature views of 2008-09

5. Lottery teams that will move into the playoffs. By my count, it's a small number.

b. Indiana Pacers. They won 36 games last season amid Jermaine O'Neal's injuries as coach Jim O'Brien and assistant Dick Harter were installing their new offense and defense, respectively. Team president Larry Bird has already turned O'Neal into T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and rookie Roy Hibbert, which -- along with the draft-day trade that included Jarrett Jack -- fills big needs at point guard and center. The improved Pacers will enter camp with a perimeter-based team more suited to O'Brien's unusual tastes. Figuring that every Eastern Conference playoff team will be .500 or better next season, based on the improvements made already, I'm giving the restructured Pacers a slight edge over the perennially young Hawks.

a. Portland Trail Blazers. Given the decline of the two teams directly above them in the Western Conference standings -- the Nuggets (who overnighted Marcus Camby to the Clippers) and the Warriors (who essentially subbed out Baron Davis for Corey Maggette, Ronny Turiaf and Marcus Williams) -- the Blazers should avoid the lottery for the first time in six years. To a young team that won a surprising 41 games they're adding Greg Oden along with Spanish rookie swingman Rudy Fernandez and 6-foot-3 combo guard Jerryd Bayless, whose size won't be a problem while playing alongside Brandon Roy. All three newcomers will fill out a rotation that already featured All-Star Roy and emerging star LaMarcus Aldridge. This could be the most fun team to watch next season -- and don't forget, the Blazers will have $15 million or more in cap space next summer regardless of the outcome of Darius Miles' comeback (see below).

4. Developing stories. These issues are all TBD:

d. The Nuggets' demise. How is coach George Karl going to rally Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Kenyon Martin and Nenê to advance without their best defender in Camby? This is a payroll-heavy roster that has won four games over the last five postseasons. The Camby deal could be the beginning of an extended, excruciating collapse.

c. Ron Artest's future. Ask Artest and he'll be glad to tell you his future. Ask him again 15 minutes later and he'll forecast an entirely different future. Come back around the next day and that future will be something he never happened to mention the first two times. The only thing I can tell you is that he's going to be traded sometime by the February deadline.

b. A big Cavaliers trade. Don't read too much into their strong playoff showing against the Celtics. The Cavs' current roster will struggle to score during the regular season, with several Eastern rivals plotting to move ahead of Cleveland. But the Cavaliers are not going to stand still and let that happen amid speculation of LeBron James' 2010 departure. They'll be looking to package their $30 million in expiring contracts as well as Zydrunas Ilgauskas and/or Anderson Varejao for a point guard and/or shooters and/or a star or two to give James a chance to realize his potential in Cleveland.

a. The Pistons' reinvention. When he can make the trade that makes sense, Joe Dumars will move one or more of his starters to rejuvenate their title hopes. It may not happen until the New Year, when the allure of Rasheed Wallace's expiring $13.7 million salary will be peaking. But let's not be carried away: As things stand today, no rival has done enough to unseat the Pistons as the No. 2 team in the East -- and with new coach Michael Curry's emphasis on setting standards and holding players accountable, the Pistons won't be sliding anytime soon. But they need to change something to renew their postseason confidence.

3. Award winners. I must be crazy trying to predict these things now. But what the hell ...

d. Sixth Man: Nate Robinson. Something tells me he is going to flourish off the bench in Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni's blurring offense.

c. Rookie: Michael Beasley. The Heat need his scoring, and he will be ready to provide it while earning credit for a huge increase in wins. Oden should make a run at this award, though the balance of the Blazers' offense may reduce his numbers.

b. Executive: Kevin Pritchard, Ed Stefanski, John Hammond (in order). Their three rookies could turn the Blazers into next season's darlings, earning recognition for Pritchard. Stefanski recruited Elton Brand to Philadelphia, though he still must re-sign restricted free agents Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams. The changes in the Bucks could be startling, thanks to Hammond's acquisitions of coach Scott Skiles and Richard Jefferson.

(p.s.: The one GM who should be recognized is Jeff Bower, who added James Posey to a team that won 56 games last season. But that improvement won't be felt until the postseason, after the votes have been counted.)

a. MVP: Kobe Bryant. My instinct to recognize LeBron is tempered by his need to win 50 or more games. One big trade by Cleveland could vault James and make this a two-man race.

2. Hungriest contenders. This is a vital category: Which of the elite teams most wants and needs to win the championship? It's one of the hardest qualities to gauge in each conference.

b. The Spurs. This is not to say that the Spurs will necessarily return to the Finals, or that they'll dominate during the regular season as they work in new complementary players. I can, however, imagine that Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Bruce Bowen will spend the season ahead making it clear to everyone else in their organization of their intention to win at least one more title before they're all washed up. They have faith on their side, based on the fact that they've won four times already, convincing teammates that the hardest work will be rewarded.

Let me add the obvious statement here -- that I may be entirely wrong in this prediction. There is another opinion widespread in the league that Duncan is worn down by having averaged 93 games over the last eight extended seasons. In which case, can Kobe and Phil Jackson influence the young Lakers to grow up fast (or will they trade for veteran depth)? Will the young Hornets feel the urgency to win now?

a. The Celtics. No other team in the East appears capable of matching Boston in focus. The Pistons or Cavaliers may yet improve in that area, but -- provided they remain healthy -- the Celtics aren't likely to slip so long as Kevin Garnett is setting the example. Rather than slide back, they may actually improve as a unit in their second season together (this assumes that defensive assistant Tom Thibodeau returns).

1. Conference predictions. How each conference race is shaping up, as of late July:

b. The East. Note that team Nos. 9-13 will be tightly packed.

15. New Jersey
14. Charlotte
13. Miami
12. Chicago
11. Atlanta
10. New York
9. Milwaukee
8. Indiana
7. Cleveland
6. Toronto
5. Philadelphia
4. Washington
3. Orlando
2. Detroit
1. Boston

a. The West. By the way, in both conferences I'm assuming (perhaps naively, but what else to do at this early stage) full health for all of the key players.

15. Oklahoma City
14. Memphis
13. Minnesota
12. Sacramento
11. Golden State
10. Denver
9. L.A. Clippers
8. Portland
7. Phoenix
6. Houston
5. San Antonio
4. Dallas
3. New Orleans
2. Utah
1. L.A. Lakers

3 Plausible surprises

3. The Knicks. Even if they dump Stephon Marbury and get less than equal value in exchange for Zach Randolph or Eddy Curry, the Knicks may prove to have more talent than their last few seasons suggest. For comparison, the Bucks may have more trouble adapting to Skiles' defense-based system than the Knicks will have in conforming to D'Antoni's full-court offense.

2. The Mavericks. Rick Carlisle is an efficiency expert with a track record of getting the most out of his teams over the regular season. Who's to say that he can't find ways to squeeze 55 or more wins out of a deep roster led by Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and a rejuvenated Josh Howard?

1. The Wizards. For two years they've been clobbered by injuries. All they need is one healthy year out of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler -- now you'll be looking at a team of three All-Stars at their peak in a conference undergoing transition (behind the Celtics, that is).

1 Premature prediction on the 2009 NBA Finals

1. Celtics beat Lakers. This time it's a classic seven-game series. The Lakers, having traded before the February deadline for a couple of the veteran tough guys they were lacking last month, are ready to fulfill Kobe's potential. Am I picking the wrong winner? Or does the veteran trio of Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have one more title left in them?

[Spuradicator]

If we are healthy, at the end of the season we will be one of the team no West team wants to meet in the playoffs.

[Spuradicator]

San Antonio at 5??? I don't think so.

[ShoogarBear]

Pretty lazy writing. After this year's Finals, Kobe has about as much chance of repeating as MVP as Dirk did, especially if Bynum comes back. This year the media will decide it's LeBron's turn to win, unless the Cavs really suck.

Celtics have one-and-done written all over them.

[m33p0]

There is another opinion widespread in the league that Duncan is worn down by having averaged 93 games over the last eight extended seasons.
But he rarely shows up during regular season games... partly because it ain't the POs.... partly because Pop doesn't want him to. So it's actually closer to 40 games per year.

[duncan228]

I think Pop and Duncan have figured out how to manage Duncan's minutes during the regular season so he can rise fresh in the Playoffs. It was a little scary last year, there was plenty of conversation that maybe Duncan didn't have it anymore. He showed us that he did. I expect the same this year.

[mrspurs]

i thinks its easy to say the spurs FO is getting rid of non hungry players.......we had a bench filled with them last season, along with a bench of washed up players who couldnt eat even if ya fed'um yourself....But not for one second should anyone think NO and LA aint hungry......NO locked up posey cos thats what they lacked(and tyson showed the world duncan has gotten older) dont forget CP3 and the other guy west....dont have to say anything bout the lakers(they got kobe) and there is a different style of play in phoenix and dallas now.......we best manup real soon cos the season is around the corner......

[Gino2882]

There has seemingly been articles and comments over the past 3 years about Duncan. Those saying he isn't the same player and that he can't jump anymore.

It doesn't matter. The reality is Duncan is still one of the 3 best players in the NBA when the playoffs start. No one thrives more, no one wants it more, and no one demands respect like Tim Duncan.

The harsh reality is that Duncan is getting older, and there will be a day when he can't do what he once did so effortlessly.

[mystargtr34]

I think Chris Paul should be the early favourite for MVP.

That team will only get better and more experienced, they also have a shut down defender at the 3 spot now.

NO could end up with the 1 seed and win 60 games.

[Spurtacus]

James Gist is hungry to help the Spurs win another title. :tu

[Mister Sinister]

James Gist is hungry to help the Spurs win another title. :tu
Om nom nom nom.

[Dave McNulla]

how does playing basketball for 30 minutes * 93 games wear somebody out? that's 46 hours/year (12 minutes/day) of good exercise. how is that going to wear anybody out, much less a professional athlete?

now i could see how injuries would make somebody less effective, but the number of games? that's stupid. hockey players double that and they have to fight.

[spursfan09]

This is just wishful thinking by the league. If that was Tim "washed up" in the playoffs, he's still better than 80% of the league. SAD.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

With the roster as it stands right now, I could see SA becoming a #5 seed.

[SpursFanFirst]

Thomsen's predictions from the article:
a. MVP: Kobe Bryant. My instinct to recognize LeBron is tempered by his need to win 50 or more games. One big trade by Cleveland could vault James and make this a two-man race.


1 Premature prediction on the 2009 NBA Finals

1. Celtics beat Lakers. This time it's a classic seven-game series. The Lakers, having traded before the February deadline for a couple of the veteran tough guys they were lacking last month, are ready to fulfill Kobe's potential. Am I picking the wrong winner? Or does the veteran trio of Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have one more title left in them?

:rolleyes OH BROTHER!

[tmtcsc]

It's pretty obvious who was worn out on the team. It wasn't Duncan.

Who ? And don't EVEN type Manu. He was injured, not worn out.

[tmtcsc]

I think Chris Paul should be the early favourite for MVP.

That team will only get better and more experienced, they also have a shut down defender at the 3 spot now.

NO could end up with the 1 seed and win 60 games.


Really ? I think he'll get injured and the Hornets will have trouble making the playoffs.

[tmtcsc]

Thomsen's predictions from the article:


1. Celtics beat Lakers. This time it's a classic seven-game series. The Lakers, having traded before the February deadline for a couple of the veteran tough guys they were lacking last month, are ready to fulfill Kobe's potential. Am I picking the wrong winner? Or does the veteran trio of Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have one more title left in them?

You call yourself a Spurs fan you son of bitch ?

http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/Alec%20Baldwin.jpg

[exstatic]

You call yourself a Spurs fan you son of bitch ?

??? Thomsen is national media, which almost rules that out.

[Findog]

I think it is extremely wishful thinking to put the Mavs in the top four. At best they're the sixth-best team in the conference.

[vanishing_dude]

its a premature shit...spurs would win it all again!!