Possible Tropical Storm forming out in the Gulf

[MannyIsGod]

The Models have been calling for a storm to form south of Florida and Alabama and then tracking straight west into the Texas Coast for a few days now and it appears to be on track to form. Steve Brown mentioned this a few days back but I don't think anyone else has said anything.

I think its gonna form so we will hopefully get more rain out of this although anywhere on the coast may get hit a bit hard.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

WeatherManny is back!

[spursfan09]

Damn I have plans to go to corpus this tuesday and wednesday.

[AlamoSpursFan]

WeatherManny rocks!!!

I only got an inch and a half from that skank Dolly.

Bring the rain, bitch!!!

[RashoFan]

WeatherManny and my chief at the FD need to meet sometime and talk about weather. The both of you are my source for forcasts.

[baseline bum]

Are you going to give us the snow forecasts in a couple of months?

[T Park]

sweet hopefully this one brings me rain instead of a damn tornado.

[phyzik]

Anything that makes my Kayaking more fun is welcome. I hope it hits up at the Llano River.

[MannyIsGod]

Latest model runs.

http://www.thestormtrack.com/2008/08/03/at200891_model.gif

[remingtonbo2001]

Hmmm. I wonder how well this storm will develope.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Supposed to be 107 here in Dallas today, been over a hundred for like 3 straight weeks now.

I'll take the GFS run for $1000, Alex (Pretty please).

[MannyIsGod]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200891_model.gif

GFS is not making this an actual storm. I don't believe it has a good handle on the system either way, but I'll trust the runs that come up later today a lot more. At the least, would be nice to get some rain from the wave but we'll see.

[AlamoSpursFan]

I kinda like that LBAR track, because it has the storm backtracking. (Or am I reading it wrong?)

I'll take all the rain I can get.

[RashoFan]

No updates from my chief today.. :(
Manny, What time later on today will you expect to see something more conclusive? Afternoon? Evening?Overnight?

[samikeyp]

Are you going to give us the snow forecasts in a couple of months?

Nahh..up here that is too easy:

"Chance of snow from October to April" :)

[Das Texan]

Supposed to be 107 here in Dallas today, been over a hundred for like 3 straight weeks now.

I'll take the GFS run for $1000, Alex (Pretty please).




ya it fucking sucks balls up there lately.


fucking hotter than in san antonio.:bang

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

ya it fucking sucks balls up there lately.


fucking hotter than in san antonio.:bang

Yeah, we tee off at 1:45 this afternoon :wow

I may need RashoFan to come revive me at some point (pretty please).

[MannyIsGod]

I kinda like that LBAR track, because it has the storm backtracking. (Or am I reading it wrong?)

I'll take all the rain I can get.

You're reading it right but thats not going to happen. Its an inaccurate model that far out. Its really only useful for early in a low pressures life when its shallow; not when its a full fledged storm.

[MannyIsGod]

Eduardo is born.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0508W5_sm2+gif/214914W_sm.gif

Doubt it has time to make it to hurricane status but we'll see.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Eduardo is born.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0508W5_sm2+gif/214914W_sm.gif

Doubt it has time to make it to hurricane status but we'll see.

How warm are the coastal waters these days? I seem to remember both Katrina and Rita cranking up two levels from about the same point in the Gulf before they hit land.

[MannyIsGod]

Nah they both cranked up further south and they both had PERFECT upper air dynamics. The Gulf was also warmer. SSTs are as high as ever but the actual entire Gulf is much lower than it was in 2005.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008215go.jpg

The storm is in warm waters, but nothing like what Kat and Rita had. Its showing signs of wanting to fire up fairly quickly but the center is still almost exposed and most of the convection is off to the south and east. Once we get it full wrapped around we could see some strengthening but its also going to move at a good speed and not as slow as most storms so it won't have a lot of time to get going.

[MannyIsGod]

This is what the loop current looked like when Katrina went over it

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005239go.jpg

[Ignignokt]

i feel a warm front coming, tell your mom to shave next time.

[MannyIsGod]

Do you honestly laugh at that? Does anyone actually laugh at that? Its seriously so bad.

[Ignignokt]

Do you honestly laugh at that? Does anyone actually laugh at that? Its seriously so bad.

i don't laugh when it comes to true romance. Your mother and I have something special going on, it can't be confined to just sexual experiences.

Tell her i miss her.

[MannyIsGod]

k

[Ignignokt]

k


we already tried that position. I'm standing straight and she's bent forming a ninety degree angle from her own bottom legs.

[Twisted_Dawg]

Eduardo is born.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0508W5_sm2+gif/214914W_sm.gif

Doubt it has time to make it to hurricane status but we'll see.

Looks like that GFDL track is the early winner.

[easjer]

Well, shit. Do we need to make a late night run to the store for water and other supplies? Or is this just going to be an inconvenient amount of rain and wind for the Houston area? Like, is there a chance work'll shut down, or are we just going to be sitting at work sweating the flooding and wondering if we can get home again?

[MannyIsGod]

No need for supplies. Flooding should not be nearly as bad as it has been in the past with tropical storms in Houston because this storm should keep moving at a good rate.

[MannyIsGod]

NWS track will probably swing north (bad for SA rain chances :( ) in the next update. It doesn't mean much but the 0z run of the GFS tonight will have a lot of good data to work with and should finally get a good grasp of the system.

Its awfully thin because a small deviation in course now could send the storm anywhere from near Corpus to near LA border.

[1369]

Storm lands between Bay City and Port Lavaca. Book it.

[easjer]

Thanks Manny. I'll still keep an eye on flooding so we can be sure to get home safely.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

i guess no one has access to weather.com

[MannyIsGod]

i guess no one has access to weather.com

Seriously, why so bitter?

[Man of Steel]

Manny--

I have friends travelling on Tuesday to Harlingen. What are the chances this could effect the valley?

[RashoFan]

May we get lucky and Eduardo hits south of Houston and we get some rain here.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Seriously, why so bitter?ease up, dude. it was a thought i had to post. man, are we touchy.

[remingtonbo2001]

May we get lucky and Eduardo hits south of Houston and we get some rain here.

I'd say odds are likely.

[MannyIsGod]

ease up, dude. it was a thought i had to post. man, are we touchy.

Now thats ironic.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Now thats ironic.i believe you were the one to call me out, monkeyboy:dramaquee

[CharlieMac]

I'm headed to Padre this afternoon. I'll fill you peeps in.

[1369]

Looks like folks are starting to get serious about Ed.


The following actions are being taken by state and local officials.

Main threat will be potential for extended power outages.

State Operations

1200 soldiers being deployed to Houston area

Texas task force 1 deployed to Houston, TX task force 2 in Dallas on stand-by.

15 POD sites being established across Houston metro area with 8 mass care strike teams being deployed

50 busses to stage at Tully Stadium

Fuel plan is being activated and pushing significant amounts of fuel into the Houston/Galveston area.

All TXDOT fuel DMS signs have hurricane fuel message ongoing along area freeways.


Local Actions:

NASA will be closing its Clear Lake location at noon today.

Harris County Toll Road will remove all vehicles stalled on any toll roads immediately.

Will be closely watching high bridges and local ferries. High bridges will be closed when winds reach 45mph including Galveston Causeway, Fred Hartman Bridge and HWY 146 bridge over Clear Lake.

Port of Houston will be closing at 300pm, Port of Galveston and Freeport will be closing at 600pm.

All local hospitals and critical care locations are preparing for extended power outages.

[I. Hustle]

k

:lol

[remingtonbo2001]

It weakened this morning, however it is forecasted to become a low catagory hurricane/strong tropical storm.

Fixed.

[MannyIsGod]

It's weakened since this morning, however it is forecasted to become a low catagory hurricane.

Its actually gotten stronger since this morning. It pretty much looked like shit all last night this morning but its finally getting a good sat presentation going. Honestly it still looks like shit but it is stronger.

[thispego]

i am going fishing next Monday in Rockport. can you look into the future and tell me if my trip will be ruined?

[remingtonbo2001]

Its actually gotten stronger since this morning. It pretty much looked like shit all last night this morning but its finally getting a good sat presentation going. Honestly it still looks like shit but it is stronger.

I should correct that statement. It weakened this morning.

However, you are correct, it is strengthening.

It was weakened by upper level shear.

[MannyIsGod]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_05L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif

Microwave imagery of the past 14 hours shows the center moving pretty much straight west that entire time.

[ATRAIN]

i am going fishing next Monday in Rockport. can you look into the future and tell me if my trip will be ruined?

You should still go, dont let a little rain ruin your trip. OH and take your butt buddy el pimpo with you. It will be a cute little "boys" weekend.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_05L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_04.gif

Microwave imagery of the past 14 hours shows the center moving pretty much straight west that entire time.

Damn, that's some sweet imaging.

[thispego]

You should still go, dont let a little rain ruin your trip. OH and take your butt buddy el pimpo with you. It will be a cute little "boys" weekend.

i almost died last time i went fishing and it was raining

monday is a weekend?

who is el pimpo?

[ORION]

dang ! I wanted to hit up the lighthouse trails for some reds !

[lint]

It shouldn't be too bad at all.

[JoeChalupa]

I had plenty of client's call and tell me they were shutting down for tomorrow in the Houston area.

[Ignignokt]

thanx for the weater channel cut and paste Manny. you don't know how much this contribution means to all of us.

[RashoFan]

Microwave imagery of the past 14 hours shows the center moving pretty much straight west that entire time.


Damn, that's some sweet imaging.


thanx for the weater channel cut and paste Manny. you don't know how much this contribution means to all of us.

I think it is cool looking...TS Ed just chugging along in the gulf....

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I enjoyed your images Manny, thanks. All the negative people should really just STFU...

When I was living in Okinawa we'd get 10-20 typhoons a year, and I used to love examining this stuff. Good memories. Coolest events were cyclone Maemi in 2004 (a 5 - flattened an outlying island, but my gf and I stood in its outskirts where the winds were only about 100-120kmph), and going out into an eye which passed right over my place - it lasted about 45 minutes! :)

Ah, the wonders of global-scale fluid dynamics! :lol

[MannyIsGod]

I enjoyed your images Manny, thanks. All the negative people should really just STFU... When I was living in Okinawa we'd get 10-20 typhoons a year, and I used to love examining this stuff. Good memories. :)

Coolest events were cyclone Maemi in 2004 (a 5 - flattened an outlying island, by my gf and I stood in it's outskirts where the winds were only about 100-120kmph), and going out into an eye which passed right over my place - it lasted about 45 minutes!).

Ah, the wonders of global-scale fluid dynamics! :lol

Thats fucking awesome. Thats really something I want to do.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Thats fucking awesome. Thats really something I want to do.

Yeah, it was very cool, blue sky above us, maybe 15-20km diameter. Never figured I'd ever be in the eye of a typhoon! :)

When the back wall hit it was noticeably less fearsome too, maybe 20-5% decrease in windspeed.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, its storming here. Feeder band shit, but man the wind was knocking shit around like crazy. Lost power for like 10 minutes. Tiny little storm too.

[Jekka]

This has been the lamest tropical system ever. We basically just got sprinkled on here in Bellaire.

[JoeChalupa]

Wasn't too bad at all from what I've heard in Houston. No delivery delays at all and some ee's got an easy day off.