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RandomGuy
08-08-2008, 09:05 AM
Georgia moves federal troops into a Moscow-supported separatist region of Georgia. Two Russian warplanes have been shot down by Georgian forces (confirmed by Georgian president in interview I saw this morning)

Georgia is a Western-friendly, NATO aspirant. Moscow doesn't like this one bit.

I expect Putin to order a full out invasion of Georgia within a week, if not less.

What NATO/Western Europe/US does next could drag us into a war with a belligerant, oil/natural gas exporting Russia.

If you aren't concerned about this, read up on it. This is EXTREMELY serious.--RG

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080808/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_south_ossetia

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TSKHINVALI, Georgia - A Cabinet minister says Georgian troops control the capital of the breakaway province of South Ossetia.


Georgian troops launched a major military offensive earlier Friday to regain control of South Ossetia, prompting a furious response from Russia.

Russia has sent tanks into the region and the convoy is expected to reach the provincial capital by evening.

The fighting is the worst outbreak of hostilities since the province won de-facto independence in a war that ended in 1992 — raising fears that war could once again erupt.

A Russian military officer says that 10 Russian peacekeepers have been killed and another 30 wounded in South Ossetia.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

TSKHINVALI, Georgia (AP) — Georgian troops launched a major military offensive Friday to regain control over the breakaway province of South Ossetia, prompting a furious response from Russia — which vowed retaliation and sent a column of tanks into the region.

The fighting was the worst outbreak of hostilities since the province won de-facto independence in a war that ended in 1992 — raising fears that war could once again erupt.

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said a convoy of Russian tanks had crossed into South Ossetia from the neighboring Russian province of North Ossetia and was moving toward the regional capital of Tskhinvali.

Russia's Channel 1 television earlier showed Russian tanks that it said had entered South Ossetia. The report said the convoy was expected to reach the provincial capital within a few hours.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned that the Georgian attack will draw retaliation and the Defense Ministry pledged to protect South Ossetians, most of whom have Russian citizenship.

Georgian forces also shot down two Russian combat planes, according to Georgia's Interior Ministry spokesman, Shota Utiashvili. He said the planes were downed while they were raiding Georgian territory, but wouldn't give their type or any further details.

Russia's Defense Ministry denied an earlier Georgian report about one Russian plane downed. It had no immediate comment on the latest claim.

An Associated Press reporter saw tanks and other heavy weapons concentrating on the Russian side of the border with South Ossetia. Some villagers were fleeing into Russia.

"I saw them (the Georgians) shelling my village," said Maria, who gave only her first name. She said she and other villagers spent the night in a field and then fled toward the Russian border as the fighting escalated.

Separatist officials in South Ossetia said 15 civilians had been killed in fighting overnight. Georgian officials said seven civilians were wounded in bombing raids by Russia.

Putin, in Beijing to attend the Olympic opening ceremony, also said an unspecified number of the peacekeepers have been wounded.

Georgia declared a three-hour cease-fire to allow civilians to leave Tskhinvali. Georgia's Interior Ministry spokesman said troops were observing the cease-fire, which began at 3 p.m. local time (7 a.m. EDT).

A spokesman for President Bush said Russia and Georgia should cease hostilities and hold talks to end the conflict. NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said he is seriously concerned about the fighting and that the alliance is closely following the situation.

Georgia, which borders the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia, was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the breakup of the Soviet Union. The country has angered Russia by seeking NATO membership — a bid Moscow regards as part of a Western effort to weaken its influence in the region.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili long has pledged to restore Tbilisi's rule over South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia. Both regions have run their own affairs without international recognition since splitting from Georgia in the early 1990s and built up ties with Moscow.

Relations between Georgia and Russia worsened notably this year as Georgia pushed to join NATO and Russia dispatched additional peacekeeper forces to Abkhazia.

South Ossetia officials said Georgia attacked with aircraft, armor and heavy artillery. Georgian troops fired missiles at Tskhinvali, an official said, and many buildings were on fire. The city's main hospital was among the buildings hit by Georgian shelling, the Russian news agency Interfax said.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said it is seeking to open a humanitarian corridor to guarantee safe access to Tskhinvali. Maia Kardova, ICRC spokeswoman in Tbilisi, said military vehicles are being given priority on the main road leading to the South Ossetia capital and this is making it difficult for rescue vehicles to get through.

Georgia's President said Russian aircraft bombed several Georgian villages and other civilian facilities.

"A full-scale aggression has been launched against Georgia," Saakashvili said in a televised statement.

He also announced a full military mobilization with reservists being called into action.

Seven civilians were wounded when three Russian Su-24 jet bombers flew into Georgia and bombed the town of Gori and the villages of Kareli and Variani, Deputy Interior Minister Eka Sguladze said at a briefing.

She said that four Russian jets later bombed Gori, the hometown of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, but that raid didn't cause any casualties.

Saakashvili urged Russia to immediately stop bombing Georgian territory. "Georgia will not yield its territory or renounce its freedom," he said.

A senior Russian diplomat in charge of the South Ossetian conflict, Yuri Popov, dismissed the Georgian claims of Russian bombings as misinformation, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported.

Russia's Defense Ministry denounced the Georgian attack as a "dirty adventure." "Blood shed in South Ossetia will weigh on their conscience," the ministry said in a statement posted on its Web site.

"We will protect our peacekeepers and Russian citizens," it said without elaboration.

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev later chaired a session of his Security Council in the Kremlin, vowing that Moscow will protect Russian citizens.

"In accordance with the constitution and federal law, I, as president of Russia, am obliged to protect lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are located," Medvedev said, according to Russian news reports. "We won't allow the death of our compatriots go unpunished."

RandomGuy
08-08-2008, 09:08 AM
This has a potential to cause the price of oil and natural gas to superspike.

Russia exports massive amounts of natural gas to Europe, as well as exports oil globally. If it goes into a potential military conflict with NATO, this will be bad.

MannyIsGod
08-08-2008, 09:13 AM
Its not good - I watched the Georgian president on CNN this morning and he struck me as posturing hardcore for US assistance although he's not going to get anything more than secondary support.

The US can't fight anywhere else right now so Georgia is shit out of luck. They're not in NATO right now, which is probably one reason the Russians are doing what the are doing now and not later.

CosmicCowboy
08-08-2008, 09:17 AM
NATO will sit this one out. Georgia started it and is about to get bitch slapped by Russia. Dumbasses.

RandomGuy
08-08-2008, 09:19 AM
Its not good - I watched the Georgian president on CNN this morning and he struck me as posturing hardcore for US assistance although he's not going to get anything more than secondary support.

The US can't fight anywhere else right now so Georgia is shit out of luck. They're not in NATO right now, which is probably one reason the Russians are doing what the are doing now and not later.

I concur.

This will probably at the least lead to a Western European embargo of Russian natural gas, causing them to seek other sources of natural gas.

Western Europe has been increasingly uncomfortable with being dependant on Russian natural gas for precisely this reason.


Russia Turns to Libya to Tighten Grip on European Energy Supply
By Jason Simpkins (http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/17/russia-turns-to-libya-to-tighten-grip-on-european-energy-supply/)

Russia–Ukraine gas dispute (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia-Ukraine_gas_dispute)

RandomGuy
08-08-2008, 09:22 AM
NATO will sit this one out. Georgia started it and is about to get bitch slapped by Russia. Dumbasses.

That is my guess as to what NATO will do, as Manny also said.

It does not look good for Georgia, but one has to wonder if they secured some promise of assistance from Washington/NATO before doing this, a distinct possibility.

PeterBurns
08-08-2008, 09:22 AM
Where will all the models go?
Please, we need an exit-strategy for them.

Brutalis
08-08-2008, 09:25 AM
This is false. I was in Georgia a few weeks ago and they are all fine. Happy tornado season is over with too. :)

thispego
08-08-2008, 09:49 AM
SENSATIONAL!!! this'll all be over in 48 hours. Remember when north korea was gonna go nuclear?

j-6
08-08-2008, 10:09 AM
South Ossetia had 70K or so residents and isn't much bigger than Bexar County.

MannyIsGod
08-08-2008, 10:30 AM
How big was Kosovo? Its not like this is a bunch of blacks in Africa killing each other. This is white people, small numbers are unimportant.

Extra Stout
08-08-2008, 11:14 AM
How big was Kosovo? Its not like this is a bunch of blacks in Africa killing each other. This is white people, small numbers are unimportant.
These are not Western white people. Nobody cares. We'll all tsk-tsk at the Russians for being so mean and nasty, but not actually do anything about it.

Will Orthodox Christians self-implode in trying to figure out where to direct their outrage?

Mister Sinister
08-08-2008, 11:21 AM
These are not Western white people. Nobody cares. We'll all tsk-tsk at the Russians for being so mean and nasty, but not actually do anything about it.

Will Orthodox Christians self-implode in trying to figure out where to direct their outrage?
Hopefully. :corn: I haven't seen a good one of those in a while.

MannyIsGod
08-08-2008, 11:24 AM
These are not Western white people. Nobody cares. We'll all tsk-tsk at the Russians for being so mean and nasty, but not actually do anything about it.

Will Orthodox Christians self-implode in trying to figure out where to direct their outrage?

CNN's morning coverage disagrees with you. Maybe its a slow news day though.

Extra Stout
08-08-2008, 11:29 AM
CNN's morning coverage disagrees with you. Maybe its a slow news day though.
It's all part of the tsk-tsking. Nobody will dare lift a finger against the Russians.

MannyIsGod
08-08-2008, 11:30 AM
It's all part of the tsk-tsking. Nobody will dare lift a finger against the Russians.

Oh well that part I agree with.

Extra Stout
08-08-2008, 11:34 AM
With the Opening Ceremonoes in Beijing done, the Russians slapped themselves on the forehead and remembered they were behind on their plans to complete the annexation of the Abkhazian coast before the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi. As it is, they're on a tight schedule to resolve all hostilities and get the luxury hotels built for the IOC in time.

Extra Stout
08-08-2008, 11:49 AM
Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
They leave the west behind
And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
They Georgia's always on my my my my my my my my my mind

IceColdBrewski
08-08-2008, 12:08 PM
I blame Michael Vick.

AlamoSpursFan
08-08-2008, 09:07 PM
I'm surprised nobody's tried to hang this on President Bush yet.

:lol

T Park
08-08-2008, 09:34 PM
I'm surprised nobody's tried to hang this on President Bush yet.

:lol

Give it time.

McCain will be thrown in as well.


Just
another reason why this country oughtta be piping its natural gas in from Alaska and drilling its own oil so they could be telling both countries to fuck off.

TDMVPDPOY
08-08-2008, 10:09 PM
wtf is sanikidze?

DMX7
08-08-2008, 10:59 PM
We are NATO. Honestly, who else is going to intervene in a conflict that (as much as possible) doesn't involved them?