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duncan228
08-13-2008, 11:38 AM
http://www.nba.com/pistons/news/southwest_080813.html

Changing of the Guard
by Keith Langlois

Editor’s note: Pistons.com today continues a six-part series examining the off-season moves made by the NBA’s 30 teams in a division-by-division analysis. In today’s Part II, we look at the Southwest Division: Coming in Friday’s Part III: Northwest.

A year ago at this time, Dallas was coming off a 67-win regular season and San Antonio was the reigning NBA champion. But there at least appears to be a changing of the guard going on in the Southwest Division, where Houston’s acquisition of Ron Artest and the continuing ascendance of Chris Paul’s New Orleans’ Hornets have a loaded division up for grabs.

It was a relatively quiet off-season for the Southwest’s five teams, the pending Artest deal the biggest splash of the summer with New Orleans’ free-agent signing of James Posey ranking second.

Here’s a look at the summer work turned in by the Southwest’s five members ranked in order of significance of activity:

HOUSTON

COMING – Make no mistake about it, the addition of Ron Artest is fraught with risk for the Rockets, but not so much if you believe the Rockets as constituted weren’t a threat to win an NBA title. Are they now? If Artest doesn’t combust and if he doesn’t infect the locker room with his unique brand of toxicity – two very considerable ifs – then, yeah, they are. Artest makes an already superb defensive team that much stingier and his offensive ability might be even more valuable to a team that too often bogs down on nights Tracy McGrady isn’t in unstoppable mode. The Rockets also added veteran shooter Brent Barry, further weakening rival San Antonio in the process, and tough rookie Joey Dorsey in the draft.

GOING – Still no resolution in sight with last year’s surprise second-round rookie contributor, Carl Landry, whose agent is threatening the European option. Other than that, not much of value was lost aside from cagey veteran guard Bobby Jackson, packaged with No. 1 pick Donte Green in the pending deal for Artest.

PROJECTED LINEUP – Point guard: Rafer Alston (Aaron Brooks, Steve Francis); shooting guard: Tracy McGrady (Brent Barry, Luther Head); center Yao Ming (Dikembe Mutombo, who remains an unsigned free agent); power forward: Ron Artest (Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes); small forward: Shane Battier (Mike Harris).

BOTTOM LINE – There are a lot of questions surrounding the Rockets, starting with the ongoing health concerns of McGrady and Yao, whose oft-injured legs and feet can’t be helped by another heavy summer of toil with the Chinese national team. Artest’s volatility will bear constant monitoring and, unless Mutombo returns to the fold, there’s nothing remotely resembling a backup center on the roster. But if everything falls into place for Houston, the Rockets will head into the playoffs a much more credible threat next spring than last.

NEW ORLEANS

COMING - James Posey seemed like one of the victims of the 2007 free agency season when few teams had money available and he wound up settling for a below-market, one-year deal with the Boston Celtics. How propitious that now seems. Boston’s ride to the 2008 NBA title and the critical role Posey played off the bench allowed him to strike it rich with a four-year, $25 million free-agent deal from the Hornets. New Orleans probably will live to regret the length of the deal, but in the short term there’s not much question Posey makes this a better team.

GOING – Nothing much so far. The Hornets let big man Chris Andersen, who returned from a two-year drug suspension late in the regular season, leave as a free agent. But it appears likely that two veteran free agents won’t be back – Jannero Pargo and Bonzi Wells – and you have to wonder if Posey for Pargo and Wells isn’t a net loss for the Hornets.

PROJECTED LINEUP – Point guard: Chris Paul (Mike James); shooting guard: Morris Peterson (Rasual Butler); center: Tyson Chandler (Melvin Ely, Hilton Armstrong); power forward: David West (Julian Wright); small forward: Peja Stojakovic (James Posey).

BOTTOM LINE – You’d have to think GM Jeff Bower should be a little nervous heading into mid-August with what appears a thin bench. But there are still plenty of serviceable veteran free agents looking for work, so it’s not out of the question that one or two shrewd minimum-deal signings can plug the holes. The Hornets were one game away from advancing to the Western finals last June and figure to be a factor for the foreseeable future with the nucleus of Paul, Chandler and West intact.

MEMPHIS

COMING – The Grizzlies had the potential to do so much more in free agency – and still do, because they’re the only team left with any appreciable money to spend under the salary cap – but apparently are content to sit this summer out and, maybe, spend their bounty next summer on what is potentially a deeper class of free agents. They opened a few eyes last week by agreeing to an offer sheet with Atlanta’s Josh Smith, but it wasn’t the bowl-you-over offer that might have dissuaded the Hawks, who matched within hours. The big news for the Grizzlies came on draft night, when they picked Kevin Love and wound up swapping him to Minnesota for O.J. Mayo and later traded again for Kansas power forward Darrell Arthur, who was thought to be a lottery pick but plummeted to the bottom of the first round, apparently due to sketchy reports of health issues that were later proven unfounded. Memphis is saying it wound up with three lottery picks – Mayo, Arthur and Marc Gasol, a piece of the trade for brother Pau and a player who enhanced his status as a prospect with a big season in Europe. The Love-Mayo swap also brought in three other players from Minnesota who’ll factor into the rotation of a painfully thin roster - Greg Buckner, Marko Jaric and Antoine Walker.

GOING – The Grizzlies were crowded in the backcourt with Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Javaris Crittenton – part of the take for Pau Gasol – all in the picture at point guard, but it still hurts to lose an asset like Juan Carlos Navarro for nothing. Navarro, after one season in the NBA, is returning to his native Spain. The Grizz also lose Kwame Brown, another part of the Gasol trade acquired for his expiring contract, as a free agent. The biggest loss, though, was veteran gunner Mike Miller, the premium Memphis shipped to Minnesota to get Mayo.

PROJECTED LINEUP – Point guard: Mike Conley (Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton); shooting guard: O.J. Mayo (Marko Jaric); center: Darko Milicic (Marc Gasol); power forward: Hakim Warrick (Antoine Walker, Darrell Arthur); small forward: Rudy Gay (Greg Buckner).

BOTTOM LINE – Memphis is a slam dunk to finish last in this division and the odds-on pick to head to Secaucus next May with the most Ping Pong balls in the hopper when the NBA determines the lottery order. Mayo and Gay could be stars and Conley, Arthur and Gasol give Memphis reason for hope, but this bunch is a long way from the fringe of playoff contention.

SAN ANTONIO

COMING – The Spurs are kind of quietly going about retooling on the fly, letting some veterans critical to their recent title runs go and filling in with youth. Aside from retaining trade-deadline acquisition Kurt Thomas, the key free agent signing to date is Washington’s Roger Mason to back up Manu Ginobili. Mason is a shooter with unlimited range who last year, for the first time, shored up other areas of his game enough to factor as an asset. The Spurs also signed a young big man, Anthony Tolliver, based on a strong Las Vegas Summer League showing. The draft yielded the first round’s biggest surprise, point guard George Hill of IUPUI, and also versatile wing Malik Hairston out of Detroit Renaissance and Oregon. The Spurs are in the mix for a valuable free agent guard, Jannero Pargo.

GOING – The man who probably cost the Pistons the 2005 NBA title, Robert Horry, won’t be back with the Spurs – and maybe not at all. He declined steeply last season and barely factored by the end. The more painful loss will be Brent Barry, who signed with division rival Houston. It’s also unclear whether a third veteran free agent, Michael Finley, will be back or not.

PROJECTED LINEUP – Point guard: Tony Parker (Jacque Vaughn, George Hill); shooting guard: Manu Ginobili (Roger Mason); center: Fabricio Oberto (Kurt Thomas, Ian Mahinmi); power forward: Tim Duncan (Matt Bonner, Anthony Tolliver); small forward: Bruce Bowen (Ime Udoka, Malik Hairston).

BOTTOM LINE – Tony Parker is only 26 and still has room for growth, but Tim Duncan at 32 and Manu Ginobili at 31 – and maybe an old 31, given his reckless style of play – are at the point where they’re going to need a little more help. San Antonio management is deservedly recognized for keen personnel decisions and budget management, but there’s at least some danger that this year the Spurs slip a rung in the unforgiving West.

DALLAS

COMING – The Mavericks didn’t have a first-round pick, courtesy of their bold February move to acquire Jason Kidd, resisted the temptation to trade Josh Howard for Ron Artest and only had the mid-level exception as a major bargaining chip in free agency. Dallas chose to spend all of it – a whopping five-year, $33 million commitment – on offensively challenged former Mavs center DeSagana Diop, who was shipped to New Jersey in the Kidd deal. Other than that questionable move, the Mavs didn’t do much else, though they at least filled out the back of the bench by signing James Singleton and Keith McLeod and rolling the dice on slam dunk champ Gerald Green, out of the league since Houston waived him last season.

GOING – The Mavs lost two useful spare parts in free agents Malik Allen and Tyronn Lue, both of whom signed with Milwaukee. Three other free agents who were part of last year’s roster – Juwan Howard, Jamaal Magloire and Devean George – remain unsigned.

PROJECTED LINEUP – Point guard: Jason Kidd (J.J. Barea, Keith McLeod); shooting guard: Jason Terry (Eddie Jones, Antoine Wright); center: Erick Dampier (DeSagana Diop); power forward: Dirk Nowitzki (Brandon Bass); small forward: Josh Howard (Jerry Stackhouse, Gerald Green, James Singleton).

XTah
08-13-2008, 12:46 PM
http://www.nba.com/pistons/news/southwest_080813.html

but Tim Duncan at 32 and Manu Ginobili at 31 – and maybe an old 31, given his reckless style of play – are at the point where they’re going to need a little more help.

Yay, another Media member who talks about how old the Spurs are and how they've slipped a little. I bet he won't say anything about how old the Celtics are, just that they are favored to go back to back.

dknights411
08-13-2008, 12:52 PM
What was the bottom line on the Mavs btw?

Tully365
08-13-2008, 12:56 PM
These were the ages of the Bulls the year they went 72-10:

Jordan, 32
Pippen, 30
Rodman, 34
Harper, 32
Kerr, 30
Kukoc, 27

duncan228
08-13-2008, 12:57 PM
What was the bottom line on the Mavs btw?

Good question. It's not in the article, I coudn't find it anywhere else on the site. I assume they'll add a correction because it got cut or something.

XTah
08-13-2008, 01:14 PM
These were the ages of the Bulls the year they went 72-10:

Jordan, 32
Pippen, 30
Rodman, 34
Harper, 32
Kerr, 30
Kukoc, 27

I know I'm one of the few people on this site that believes this, but I think if the big 3 stay healthy, we've got a good chance of winning the finals.

mrspurs
08-13-2008, 01:25 PM
whoever wrote this must be related to buck harvey, because i didnt find anything within the article i didnt already know.......bottom line the mavs will be there in the hunt, because of dirk and kidd and blah blah blah. that will probably make up for whatever got cut off by the mavs bottom line. thou everything sounds great on paper, imo noway tmac and yao stand tall for a complete season, and without either one houston fails. its us against NO just like last season.......only this time HCA=winner in southwest

Tully365
08-13-2008, 01:33 PM
And these were the ages of the 1971-2 Lakers that went 69-13:

Wilt Chamberlain, 35
Jerry West, 33
Happy Hairston, 29
Gail Goodrich, 28
Jim McMillian, 23

The two teams with the best records in NBA history featured at least 2 stars that were in their 30s. Last year's champs had three in their 30s. Just look at the numbers above: Duncan is younger than Chamberlain, Manu is younger than West, and Parker is younger than Goodrich. I just think this tendency of sportswriters and media people to talk about how certain teams need to get younger is a trend that really doesn't have much solid evidence to support it.

vander
08-13-2008, 01:54 PM
These were the ages of the Bulls the year they went 72-10:

Jordan, 32
Pippen, 30
Rodman, 34
Harper, 32
Kerr, 30
Kukoc, 27

the league didn't have nearly as much talent then as it does now.



Oh, and they had MJ

Lackluster
08-13-2008, 02:05 PM
I know I'm one of the few people on this site that believes this, but I think if the big 3 stay healthy, we've got a good chance of winning the finals.

agreed. still the best big 3 in the game when healthy.

the supporting cast is sufficient as long as tim, tony, and manu can play to their full potential.

Sean Cagney
08-13-2008, 02:16 PM
I know I'm one of the few people on this site that believes this, but I think if the big 3 stay healthy, we've got a good chance of winning the finals.

I believe it as well, but we are a minority.

johnny_J_Jackson
08-13-2008, 06:15 PM
Well there you have it, Spurs will go 72-10.

exstatic
08-13-2008, 07:41 PM
the league didn't have nearly as much talent then as it does now.



Oh, and they had MJ

Bullshit. If you want to be completely negative, go for it. Just don't use lies to get there.

League Talent in 1995-1996
MJ
Pip
Hakeem, fresh of the B2B
David, pre back injury
Ewing, in Finals form
Shaq, in year 3 or 4
Stockton
Malone
Barkley
Reggie Miller, in his prime

Capt Bringdown
08-13-2008, 08:24 PM
These were the ages of the Bulls the year they went 72-10:

Jordan, 32
Pippen, 30
Rodman, 34
Harper, 32
Kerr, 30
Kukoc, 27

If compared to the current Spurs, once you get past the big 3 we don't have anyone near the level of Rodman, Harper, Kerr or Kukoc.

Nor do we have a player who can contribute at Pippen's level.

And Duncan is no Jordan, so it's rather a bad comparison, isn't it?

Tully365
08-14-2008, 12:53 AM
If compared to the current Spurs, once you get past the big 3 we don't have anyone near the level of Rodman, Harper, Kerr or Kukoc.

Nor do we have a player who can contribute at Pippen's level.

And Duncan is no Jordan, so it's rather a bad comparison, isn't it?

I wasn't comparing the Spurs to the Bulls talentwise. My point was that the two teams with the best records in the history of the NBA accomplished their feats when their primary stars were similar ages to the current Spurs. I'm not in any way saying the Spurs will win 69+ games, justing pointing out that there is an established record of teams performing at high levels when their two best players are in their early 30s.

RuffnReadyOzStyle
08-14-2008, 01:20 AM
NO will win the division, injuries will limit Houston to low 50s wins, we'll win 54-56 as per usual, Dallas are also on the decline but still good for 48-54 wins, Grizz suck.

I see no changing of the guard.

ceperez
08-14-2008, 06:01 AM
Duncan is definitely declining, there's an obvious tentativeness in his game that we first saw in the Piston's series.

Manu is at his peak. Definitely had his best regular season last year, unfortunately may have been his worse post season. I also think that teams are getting familiar with his antics. He also isn't as clutch as he used to be, may have to do with age (i.e. I've done this before).

Parker surprisingly may have not peaked yet. He's a one man fast break and if you don't clog the lane he's going to figure out how to make a basket.

Bowen still is a very good defender and still makes the 3 point shots when needed. I can't expect him to play the kind of minutes he keeps on player, we desperately need a backup for him. No, Udoka doesn't have the footspeed or length to be a replacement.

Kurt Thomas... never understood why Spurs management are so high on him. He's undersized and can't jump! That is, a post up player only needs to make a turn around jumper, and it's highly unlikely that it'll be blocked. The gig is up and everyone in the league knows this! They all know that when they penetrate, the alley hoop is available for any of their centers.

The Spurs this coming year are just undersized and any most every other contending western team is at least 3 inches taller on average.

spurs50_
08-14-2008, 06:40 AM
I'll eat a dirt sandwich if Hairston makes the team.

mrspurs
08-14-2008, 07:05 AM
Duncan is definitely declining, there's an obvious tentativeness in his game that we first saw in the Piston's series.

Manu is at his peak. Definitely had his best regular season last year, unfortunately may have been his worse post season. I also think that teams are getting familiar with his antics. He also isn't as clutch as he used to be, may have to do with age (i.e. I've done this before).

Parker surprisingly may have not peaked yet. He's a one man fast break and if you don't clog the lane he's going to figure out how to make a basket.

Bowen still is a very good defender and still makes the 3 point shots when needed. I can't expect him to play the kind of minutes he keeps on player, we desperately need a backup for him. No, Udoka doesn't have the footspeed or length to be a replacement.

Kurt Thomas... never understood why Spurs management are so high on him. He's undersized and can't jump! That is, a post up player only needs to make a turn around jumper, and it's highly unlikely that it'll be blocked. The gig is up and everyone in the league knows this! They all know that when they penetrate, the alley hoop is available for any of their centers.

The Spurs this coming year are just undersized and any most every other contending western team is at least 3 inches taller on average.

where as most readers would take this as a your on the bandwagon, i dont even know ya and basically everything you said is......right on the money. and might i add, last season bowen also like duncan lost a step(or the nba's better teams got faster) and tony is as good as you say, most know that. but unlike his PO mvp season, where tony flew in and did as he liked, last season because of the fact, the spurs have nothing inside, teams clogged the middle and made parker miss alot of his shots.(many times leaving me to wonder....where is that tear drop?) i think manu had his best season overall because if he didnt we would really had a poor PO spot( he had to make up for pops fire beno and bring in mighty mouse. to many manu minutes sooner or later=bad plays) and with that in mind, i can live without manus wreckless play and costly turnovers(imo it wasnt his hurt ankle that everyone talked about that held manu back, it was like you said, teams already know what manu is gonna do, and manu is slower good or bad ankle)...........all in all from what i see so far, its on mason and ian, our next ring may depend on the play of both those players(giving manu and tim some rest) if roger and ian dont show up, expect a tired older timmy and an even more tired wreckless manu. i still have faith the FO will help tim somehow, from what i saw in the SL, ian didnt show me much improvement. and as you said i have no clue why the FO was so big on kurt, all i saw was teams other bigs raise their arms and that basically was enough defense to scare kurt, fab, and even timmy from making and easy shots. and as for pop sometimes calling it quits cos we were down by 20, thats a horrible way of showing the league yall are better, and a great way of resting tired players. i hate losing, but i hate quitting even more.....i personally want one more of these :lobt:

1Parker1
08-14-2008, 07:10 AM
I think the media harps on the Spurs collective age a lot more than other teams who are of similiar age, primiarly because they are in a very, very tough Western Conference where there are so many young teams primed to make the playoffs or go deep into them; Jazz, Hornets, LA, Blazers, etc.

In the East, a team like the Celtics, who's primary players are just as old as the Spurs almost, get away with it, because the East doesn't have too many young up and coming teams; Sixers and Heat are the only ones that come to mind. And that's only after a great offseason those teams have had.

People like to argue that the Spurs were one Manu Ginobili ankle injury away from making it back to back to the Finals, but honestly, people forget the tough road they had just to get there as the 3rd seed. Pop had to play his starters a lot longer in the regular season because of the tight seeding, Pheonix, Hornets, LA, and eventually Boston...that's probably the toughest road ever to the NBA Finals for the Spurs.