androck
08-18-2008, 04:21 PM
Here are some statistics that I put together that should help put the San Antonio Spurs' draft history in perspective. I am using data from the 1994-2004 drafts (inclusive) although the 2004 draft might skew the data somewhat since only one All-Star has been selected from that draft class (Dwight Howard) and a few others might make the cut soon.
In 1994 there were 27 picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds and only 11 teams involved in the lottery. From 1995-2003 there were 29 picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds and 13 teams were involved in the lottery with the exception of 2002 when the Minnesota Timberwolves had to forfeit their 1st round pick due to salary cap violations. In 2004 there were 29 1st round picks and 30 2nd round picks (this was the Charlotte Bobcats expansion draft). From 1994-2004 there were only two undrafted players that went on to be selected for the All-Star Game at some point in their career: Ben Wallace in 1996 and Brad Miller in 1998. The following data is for players that were selected to at least one All-Star game in their career through this past season (2007-2008).
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a lottery pick is 27.9%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round pick is 16.1%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 2nd round pick is 1.9%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round non-lottery pick is 3.8%
The probability of drafting an All-Star outside of the lottery is 5.6%
The probability of drafting an All-Star is 17.7%
The Spurs have had 9 1st round picks and 10 2nd round picks in this same time period (11 drafts) including one lottery pick:
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a lottery pick is 100%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round pick is 22.2%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 2nd round pick is 10.0%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round non-lottery pick is 12.5%
The probability of drafting an All-Star outside of the lottery is 22.5%
The probability of drafting an All-Star is 32.2%
For this data, drafts where the Spurs drafted a player and then traded the player to another team without ever signing with the Spurs (for example, Leandro Barbosa in 2003) are considered a Spurs draft selection.
Some food for thought:
From 1994-2004, the San Antonio Spurs were much more successful than the league average in drafting All-Stars.
In the 11 years included in this data, the Spurs have only had one lottery pick (translation: the Spurs have made the playoffs every year but one in this period). Even the Lakers have had two lottery picks.
2 out of the 18 All-Stars drafted outside of the lottery during this time period were drafted by the Spurs (11.1%).
Without a lottery pick, you should reasonably expect to draft an All-Star about once every 18 years.
In 1994 there were 27 picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds and only 11 teams involved in the lottery. From 1995-2003 there were 29 picks in both the 1st and 2nd rounds and 13 teams were involved in the lottery with the exception of 2002 when the Minnesota Timberwolves had to forfeit their 1st round pick due to salary cap violations. In 2004 there were 29 1st round picks and 30 2nd round picks (this was the Charlotte Bobcats expansion draft). From 1994-2004 there were only two undrafted players that went on to be selected for the All-Star Game at some point in their career: Ben Wallace in 1996 and Brad Miller in 1998. The following data is for players that were selected to at least one All-Star game in their career through this past season (2007-2008).
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a lottery pick is 27.9%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round pick is 16.1%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 2nd round pick is 1.9%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round non-lottery pick is 3.8%
The probability of drafting an All-Star outside of the lottery is 5.6%
The probability of drafting an All-Star is 17.7%
The Spurs have had 9 1st round picks and 10 2nd round picks in this same time period (11 drafts) including one lottery pick:
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a lottery pick is 100%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round pick is 22.2%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 2nd round pick is 10.0%
The probability of drafting an All-Star with a 1st round non-lottery pick is 12.5%
The probability of drafting an All-Star outside of the lottery is 22.5%
The probability of drafting an All-Star is 32.2%
For this data, drafts where the Spurs drafted a player and then traded the player to another team without ever signing with the Spurs (for example, Leandro Barbosa in 2003) are considered a Spurs draft selection.
Some food for thought:
From 1994-2004, the San Antonio Spurs were much more successful than the league average in drafting All-Stars.
In the 11 years included in this data, the Spurs have only had one lottery pick (translation: the Spurs have made the playoffs every year but one in this period). Even the Lakers have had two lottery picks.
2 out of the 18 All-Stars drafted outside of the lottery during this time period were drafted by the Spurs (11.1%).
Without a lottery pick, you should reasonably expect to draft an All-Star about once every 18 years.