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FromWayDowntown
02-08-2005, 11:53 AM
With Canseco's new allegations about Rafael Palmeiro's involvement with steroids, does Raffy's already questionable Hall-of-Fame campaign take a major hit? I realize whottt will probably still argue that Palmeiro's accomplishments exceed Frank Robinson's (which seems even more laughable now) but does anyone else think that there's a chance Palmiero becomes the first 500 Club member to be dissed by the HOF voters?

Spurminator
02-08-2005, 11:58 AM
I think it will take more than Jose Canseco's word to convict Palmiero in the Court of Public Opinion.

While it's possible that Palmiero was juiced, I don't see the same physical growth that was common with known users like Canseco, Bonds and Giambi. McGwire I'd buy, because of how big he got... but I just don't see it with Raffy.

FromWayDowntown
02-08-2005, 01:14 PM
I can actually see it with Palmiero, too -- and his numbers seem to jive with some of Canseco's allegations. Not to convict the guy, but . . . .

When Raffy entered the major leagues, he was not a power hitter. In his first 5 full major league seasons, Palmeiro's numbers looked like this:

1988: 580 AB, 8 HR
1989: 559 AB, 8 HR
1990: 598 AB, 14 HR
1991: 631 AB, 26 HR
1992: 608 AB, 22 HR

In those first five full seasons, he averaged one home run per every 38.2 at bats. His best RBI season was 89 in 1990, and his best slugging season was .532 in 1991. (Raffy hit 17 HR in his first 294 at bats over the course of two partial seasons).

Canseco was traded to Texas on August 31, 1992. He claims that he introduced Raffy, Pudge, and JuanGon to steroids after the trade. Now, look at Palmeiro after the 1992 season:

1993: 597 AB, 37 HR
1994: 436 AB, 23 HR (strike-shortened season)
1995: 554 AB, 39 HR
1996: 626 AB, 39 HR
1997: 614 AB, 38 HR
1998: 619 AB, 43 HR
1999: 565 AB, 47 HR
2000: 565 AB, 39 HR
2001: 600 AB, 47 HR
2002: 546 AB, 43 HR
2003: 561 AB, 38 HR
2004: 550 AB, 23 HR

That's 456 home runs in 6833 at bats.

Here's the perspective: in his first 3270 major league at bats, Rafael Palmeiro hit 95 home runs. (a ratio of 1 HR per every 34.42 at bats). Over his next 6833 at bats (roughly twice as many) he hit 456 home runs. (a ratio of 1 HR per every 14.98 at bats). From 1993 on, a guy who had never driven in 100 runs has failed to drive in 100 runs only twice (the 1994 strike season(78), and 2004 (88)). A guy who had exceeded a .500 slugging percentage in only one full season, has now been below .500 only twice (.485 in 1997, .436 in 2004).

I would prefer to believe that Raffy's been on the up-and-up, and that Canseco is simply grabbing onto better performances as evidence of his involvement, but the dramatic increase in Palmeiro's production is pretty difficult to rationalize, absent some external influence.

He basically went from being John Olerud to being Eddie Murray in one season.

Spurminator
02-08-2005, 02:28 PM
Numberswise, it makes sense, but power surges can happen for other reasons besides steroids. Take Luis Gonzales for instance... He's a bit too scrawny for me to think he used steroids before he started hitting 40-50 hrs per year, but he did begin batting with an open stance.

Early in Raffy's career, he hit to all sides of the field. Maybe he had better power numbers as a result of becoming an exclusively pull hitter.

Also, when did the Rangers move into the Ballpark at Arlington? Could that have also explained some of the Rangers' power numbers?

whottt
02-08-2005, 04:15 PM
I don't recall ever arguing that Raffy's accomplishments exceed Frank Robinson's(that is an impossible argument due to Robinson having a triple crown and winning MVP's in 2 leagues)...only that Frank Robinson was not the greatest baseball player from the State of Texas and that Palmeiro's numbers are still in Robinson's league regardless of era.


As for his HOF worthiness...that's a tough one.

Is Bonds still a HOFer? McGwire?(I didn't think McGwire was hall worthy anyway) Sosa?

To tell you the truth I am disgusted with this whole ordeal right now and I don't have the answer for you.

Oh you are wrong about one thing though...Palmeiro did exhibit power early in his career, he had 14 homers in 200 AB...in Wrigley. He also lead the NL in doubles. In College he won a Triple Crown, he always had power...


He started hitting homers when he became a pull hitter...this was an obvious change in his batting style that many noticed. But the change does coincide with Canseco's timeline.


As for whether or not he is still a HOFer...I think it should take more than the words of Jose Canseco to determine if he is a HOFer or not.


He was a 3000 hit guy whether or not he used steroids, as you can see, he clearly sacrificed average and hit totals for homers......kinda like Bonds is a HOF'er steroids or not...so what is your answer? What should be the punishment for cheating? The ultimate penalty? Like Pete Rose?

The sad thing is I don't really think I care anymore. I am totally disgusted with baseball right now.

FromWayDowntown
02-09-2005, 12:36 PM
To tell you the truth I am disgusted with this whole ordeal right now and I don't have the answer for you.

I don't disagree with this sentiment. The fact that we're even able to have this conversation -- the fact that there are credible allegations of steriod use -- are disheartening. I miss the old days of baseball, when virtually every team had a legitimate chance to win and when players succeeded on skill and talent. I was a huge fan in the late 70's through about the mid-to-late 1980's; many of those guys may have been whacked out on coke, but they were at least natural physical specimens (other than maybe Gorman Thomas -- I still have no idea how that dude played CF on a World Series team).


Oh you are wrong about one thing though...Palmeiro did exhibit power early in his career, he had 14 homers in 200 AB...in Wrigley. He also lead the NL in doubles. In College he won a Triple Crown, he always had power...

I don't think I'm wrong here. The 14 HR in 200 AB were an anomaly when you look at the rest of his early career. If you take out the 14/200, you have about 71 HR in 2700 AB. That's still 1 home run for every 38 at-bats. He had one stretch where the number went up to 1 home run every 14 at-bats, but that stretch accounts for approximately 7% of his career between 1986 and 1992. It's like saying that a guy who had a good two month stretch during one season over a 7 year period was a great slugger. The numbers don't match up.

Doubles, to me at least, don't equal power. Brian Roberts led the AL in doubles last year. Guys like John Olerud, Craig Biggio, Chuck Knoblauch, Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Grace, Charlie Hayes, Andy Van Slyke, and others have lead their leagues in doubles in the last 12 years. Doubles are a consequence of being a good hitter, not a consequence of having great power. Of the "power hitters" who've lead their leagues in doubles, most are guys who also hit for high average: Bob Abreu, Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Garrett Anderson. Guys like that, who tend to put the ball in play a lot.


He started hitting homers when he became a pull hitter...this was an obvious change in his batting style that many noticed. But the change does coincide with Canseco's timeline.

* * *

He was a 3000 hit guy whether or not he used steroids, as you can see, he clearly sacrificed average and hit totals for homers......

I just wonder -- and I appreciate your contrary argument -- if this isn't a chicken-and-egg situation? I mean, did Palmeiro begin trying to pull the ball when he realized that he was stronger and could hit for more power? or did he make a conscious decision in the spring of 1993 to become a power hitter and choose, at that point, to concentrate on pulling the ball? If he made the decision to hit for power just because he wanted to do that, why did it take him 7 seasons (and 5 full major league seasons) to make that conversion? I mean, wouldn't it make sense that he would have tried to hit for power at an earlier stage, if he felt he could have?

I'm not keen on the sacrificed hits and average for power argument, either. If you exclude the 1994 anomalous season and the last three years (ages 37, 38, and 39), Palmeiro has averaged 172.3 hits per season since 1993 (1378 hits in 8 seasons). In his first 5 full major league seasons, he averaged 177.8 hits per season. Such a minor reduction in hits is fairly insignificant. What is telling about the number, though, is that Palmeiro has drawn considerably more walks since 1993 (311 walks from 1986-1992; 999 walks from 1993-2004; if you just take those 5 season/8 season comparison, his walks went from 57.4 per season to 84.6 per season). Again, it's chicken-and-egg (walks tend to go up with increases in power) but to say that Palmeiro sacrificed hits and average for power is, I think, incorrect.




I don't know the answer about Raffy's Hall-of-Fame credentials. I have always been skeptical about how much his numbers are a product of inflated offenses and juiced balls and how much his numbers are of his own creation. I think the Hall should be reserved for players who were consistently among the very best of their generation. Palmeiro, to me, is like Jeff Bagwell -- they're both nice players, but among those who play 1B in this era, each is basically upper-middle class. With all of his great numbers, Palmeiro has only made 4 all-star teams in his career. He's been in the top 10 of MVP voting only 3 times, never finishing higher than 5th. His black ink numbers are very low, and his teams have only reached the post-season 3 times. I don't think of those as Hall-of-Fame credentials, but his career numbers are good. It's basically a lifetime achievement award at this point. I just don't think it should be that, I guess.

whottt
02-09-2005, 03:31 PM
I don't disagree with this sentiment. The fact that we're even able to have this conversation -- the fact that there are credible allegations of steriod use -- are disheartening. I miss the old days of baseball, when virtually every team had a legitimate chance to win and when players succeeded on skill and talent. I was a huge fan in the late 70's through about the mid-to-late 1980's; many of those guys may have been whacked out on coke, but they were at least natural physical specimens (other than maybe Gorman Thomas -- I still have no idea how that dude played CF on a World Series team).


I'm philosophical about it...Guys cheated back then too. They corked bats, they threw games, they scuffed and spit on balls....they cheated. Baseball history has always been fraught with cheaters. No telling how many pitching records set back in the dead ball era are still holding up because of scuff balls and spitballs....and a lot of those records are still holding up from before spit balls were banned. Kinda like some of these modern hitting records being set before roids were banned.

So, I don't think that those guys were angels back then, they cheated, they were bigots...I didn't like those guys that did it back then any better. But I know Williams and Ruth didn't cheat.

You shouldn't be able to make a career out of cheating and it damn sure shouldn't set apart from being a good player to one of the all time greats.




I don't think I'm wrong here. The 14 HR in 200 AB were an anomaly when you look at the rest of his early career. If you take out the 14/200, you have about 71 HR in 2700 AB. That's still 1 home run for every 38 at-bats. He had one stretch where the number went up to 1 home run every 14 at-bats, but that stretch accounts for approximately 7% of his career between 1986 and 1992. It's like saying that a guy who had a good two month stretch during one season over a 7 year period was a great slugger. The numbers don't match up.

The numbers match up fine if you are aware of what a good hitting season, for a left handed batter, was at Arlington stadium.

Put it this way...in 1989 Pete O'Brien was the clubs all time leader in HR with 114.

Those first couple of years, Raffy was setting the table for Reuben Sierra and Pete Incaviglia, under the guidance of Bobby Valentine. It was a very structure offense and there were guys that were more proven power hitters hitting in the heart of the order.


. Of the "power hitters" who've lead their leagues in doubles, most are guys who also hit for high average: Bob Abreu, Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Garrett Anderson. Guys like that, who tend to put the ball in play a lot.

You mean like Palmeiro finishing second to Gwynn in the 88 batting race?




I just wonder -- and I appreciate your contrary argument -- if this isn't a chicken-and-egg situation? I mean, did Palmeiro begin trying to pull the ball when he realized that he was stronger and could hit for more power? or did he make a conscious decision in the spring of 1993 to become a power hitter and choose, at that point, to concentrate on pulling the ball? If he made the decision to hit for power just because he wanted to do that, why did it take him 7 seasons (and 5 full major league seasons) to make that conversion? I mean, wouldn't it make sense that he would have tried to hit for power at an earlier stage, if he felt he could have?

Well, I remember falling out of my seat when he jacked 35 in Arlington Stadium...which set the record. At the same time, he was hitting 3rd in a potent lineup and the era had begun to change.


Look, I really don't have the energy to argue his innocence, there is definitely a strong circumstantial case against him, even moreso when you look at what Juan Gone did when Jose got there.

I think there is a lot of reason to believe Jose is telling the truth...at the same time, I wouldn't trust Jose with my life. Would you?


I'm not keen on the sacrificed hits and average for power argument, either. If you exclude the 1994 anomalous season and the last three years (ages 37, 38, and 39), Palmeiro has averaged 172.3 hits per season since 1993 (1378 hits in 8 seasons).

In his first 5 full major league seasons, he averaged 177.8 hits per season. Such a minor reduction in hits is fairly insignificant.

No, Palmeiro lead the league in hits before his power surge, he had a 200 hit season, a 190 hit season, he was runner up in batting race, he had several 300 hits seasons. He hasn't really done any of that since he became a pull hitter. He definitely gave up average for power. Whether or not he did it because steroids gave him more power...I dunno.

That's the question isn't it?

I am asking myself the same thing.




What is telling about the number, though, is that Palmeiro has drawn considerably more walks since 1993 (311 walks from 1986-1992; 999 walks from 1993-2004; if you just take those 5 season/8 season comparison, his walks went from 57.4 per season to 84.6 per season). Again, it's chicken-and-egg (walks tend to go up with increases in power) but to say that Palmeiro sacrificed hits and average for power is, I think, incorrect.

He was definitely an Edgar Martinez type hitter before he became a pull hitter...

In fact, in the early 90's I used to say myself that Edgar Martinez reminded me of Rafael Palmeiro. So you could say I am speaking from personal viewing experience.



I don't know the answer about Raffy's Hall-of-Fame credentials. I have always been skeptical about how much his numbers are a product of inflated offenses and juiced balls and how much his numbers are of his own creation. I think the Hall should be reserved for players who were consistently among the very best of their generation. Palmeiro, to me, is like Jeff Bagwell -- they're both nice players, but among those who play 1B in this era, each is basically upper-middle class. With all of his great numbers, Palmeiro has only made 4 all-star teams in his career. He's been in the top 10 of MVP voting only 3 times, never finishing higher than 5th. His black ink numbers are very low, and his teams have only reached the post-season 3 times. I don't think of those as Hall-of-Fame credentials, but his career numbers are good. It's basically a lifetime achievement award at this point. I just don't think it should be that, I guess.

Well that's basically a difference we had before the steroid scandal...you aren't really sold on his numbers steroids or not. I am definitely sold on his numbers. In some ways his numbers might be more hall worthy had he never become a pull hitter.


But even in this steroid driven era, you don't see anyone putting up his all around numbers, steroids or not...including Barry Bonds(Barry is going to have to work hard to get 3000 hits).

If he gets to 600 homers and 3000 hits...only Hank Aaron has done that. I do not consider those numbers common, easily attained, or driven by a hitters era.

But if he cheated? And there is certainly reason to suspect it...what really is the point? It's sickening.


One thing though, and this is what I like about Palmeiro in the first place...You look at all the other guys accused of steroid usage, and those that have admitted it, and there is one thing that most definitely sets Palmeiro apart...Palmeiro is one of the most durable players in baseball history, like in a class with Ripken, Rose, and Eddie Murray and that's it.

He's got a lot more parallels with Ripken than he does with Canseco or McGwire.

FromWayDowntown
02-09-2005, 04:28 PM
I appreciate your thoughts. I think we're more on the same page with this than you might think.

By the way, Aaron isn't the only player with 600/3000. Mays has the same (660/3280). Of the 4 guys who have 600 HR, half have 3000 hits, for now at least.

I also disagree about Palmeiro's numbers exceeding Barry's. Barry will get to 3,000 hits if he plays 2 more seasons, barring injury or early retirement, and will do so with the most walks in MLB history and a top 10 all-time OBP. Barry's 7 MVP's and numerous top 10 historical rankings are also, I think, more compelling than Palmeiro's achievements. If the anecdotal/circumstantial evidence of steroid use by Palmeiro doesn't disqualify him, it equally shouldn't disqualify Bonds.

whottt
02-09-2005, 07:06 PM
I appreciate your thoughts. I think we're more on the same page with this than you might think.

By the way, Aaron isn't the only player with 600/3000. Mays has the same (660/3280). Of the 4 guys who have 600 HR, half have 3000 hits, for now at least.

My bad, should have said 600 homers, doubles and 3000 hits. And I don't think it's going to be that easy for Bonds to get those hits...


I also disagree about Palmeiro's numbers exceeding Barry's. Barry will get to 3,000 hits if he plays 2 more seasons, barring injury or early retirement, and will do so with the most walks in MLB history and a top 10 all-time OBP. Barry's 7 MVP's and numerous top 10 historical rankings are also, I think, more compelling than Palmeiro's achievements. If the anecdotal/circumstantial evidence of steroid use by Palmeiro doesn't disqualify him, it equally shouldn't disqualify Bonds.

OBP and the high BB totals are a symptom of his power, not the cause...I gurantee you that teams don't go into games worrying about his abiity to draw a BB...and they really didn't with Ruth and Williams. This is an entirely different argument though that I will bow out of for now.

But let's just say...If Bonds did roids, all his BA and HR achievements(and the derivative stats like SLG OBP and OPS) of the past few seasons are just as bogus as anything Raffy has done, and Bond's numbers begin to look a whole lot more like his fathers...

EG..Prior to 2000 Raffy had the best HR, RBI, Double, and Hit season...

Take away roids and you have a puffed up version Bobby Bonds...