Gustav

[MannyIsGod]

This storm is going to fuck some place up. If I was in NO right now I'd probably be shitting my pants.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL072008mlts.gif?454003523

That blue line is the most accurate model we have. It goes through the water with by far the most energy in the Atlantic and if it manages to get through the Yucatan straits with no land interference then thats even worse.

That being said models that far out still pretty much suck but they'll give you a general view of what is going on.

[DANILO DRASKOVIC]

since almost all models have it not hitting NOLA...I'm not worried



but of course this could all change
no point to get worried just yet though

[MannyIsGod]

since almost all models have it not hitting NOLA...I'm not worried



but of course this could all change
no point to get worried just yet though

The GFDL putting a catagory 3+ storm within 250 miles of NOLA over the loop five days from now should at the very least make everyone in that city take notice.

I'm not saying its going to hit, but if I was living in NOLA I wouldn't take anything for granted. The truth is that if this storm gets as strong as it looks like its going to get its going to lay a lot of devastation whether it goes that path or not. Someone is going to get fucked up.

[MannyIsGod]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nah.f126h.gif

[Brutalis]

Yay Arkansas gets more rain!

[PM5K]

Oh Shit Weather Manny Is Back...

[AlamoSpursFan]

Weather Manny rocks, but I ain't asking for shit this time. I got 1.5 inches from Dolly and dust from freaking Eduo...Edw...Edd...fuck it, Ed.

:lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Manny, some of my journo associates have been using this on their sites for additional information... what do you think?

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[nsrammstein]

Manny should stop eating so manny burritos!!

[JoeChalupa]

It looks like it could be a nasty one. Every major network is on it.

[Anti.Hero]

After Katrina, everyone makes a big deal about every single Hurricane. A part of it is also probably the agenda of spewing gorebage that global warming is amplifying hurricanes.


Except the people that actually live on the coast. Same shit, different day.

[AlamoSpursFan]

After Katrina, everyone makes a big deal about every single Hurricane.


They did that before Katrina too. I've never understood why every news network has to put a reporter in a slicker out in 80 mph winds to let us know there's a freaking hurricane out there. We've seen it.

[MannyIsGod]

Cause you keep watching.

I've made big deals out of most storms since I was a kid. But I love weather.

Anyway, I was reminded this morning how bad this storm is going to fuck us. The only way it doesn't is if it fucks the Mexicans, because if it goes anywhere but due west in the GOM then you can forget all about 3.40 dollar gas.

[nsrammstein]

If people have learned their lesson from katrina they'll do whatever their government officials tell them to do or else they'll be swimming with the fish after the hurricane passes through

[MannyIsGod]

Ouch, look above at the new GFDL plot.

[Anti.Hero]

If people have learned their lesson from katrina they'll do whatever their government officials tell them to do or else they'll be swimming with the fish after the hurricane passes through

People learned their lessons from hurricanes long before Katrina and Governments. Boards, gas, insurance, and GTFO outta dodge.

[Ass Cream]

I think they used up all our sympathy the last time.

[Ass Cream]

Maybe we can have a "White Looter" troll when it happens.

[MannyIsGod]

No one has learned shit. If they had learned a damn thing from Katrina we would have seem far more changes. I promise you that if this storm takes a track similar to Katrina you will have almost a virtual repeat of what happened then. The levees will fail - AGAIN - and I'm not sure how many people they'll be able to evacuate.

[nsrammstein]

If this hurricane someway hits New Orleans and ravages it similarly to the same way it was ravaged by katrina then you can erase NO off the map, you gotta be fucking stupid if you go back only to have your house washed away again the next year

[Ass Cream]

New Orleans should get moved to Texas.

[Ass Cream]

Just leave it's people over there.

[Ass Cream]

I just want their music over here in Texas.

They can keep the criminal types.

[Ass Cream]

I think we should make a move to have Mardi Gras in San Antonio, maybe Austin.

[Kori Ellis]

I just want their music over here in Texas.

They can keep the criminal types.

I said in the Spurs forum and I'll say it here - you can sign back into your regular screen name and stop the trash or go to the Troll forum.

Thanks.

[MannyIsGod]

If this hurricane someway hits New Orleans and ravages it similarly to the same way it was ravaged by katrina then you can erase NO off the map, you gotta be fucking stupid if you go back only to have your house washed away again the next year

You had to be stupid to rebuild it the way they have after Katrina and they did it so why would they stop now? Hurricanes will hit NOLA again. They will, just like earthquakes will hit LA and just like Tornadoes will go through Oklohoma etc etc.

Its still a long way out so anything can happen and this isn't for sure. Its not even likely at this point merely possible.

[samikeyp]

Cause you keep watching.

I've made big deals out of most storms since I was a kid. But I love weather.

Anyway, I was reminded this morning how bad this storm is going to fuck us. The only way it doesn't is if it fucks the Mexicans, because if it goes anywhere but due west in the GOM then you can forget all about 3.40 dollar gas.

Well you are going to get a big dose of weather you are not use to! :)

Having four seasons is nice though.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

We're already stocked up from the last two storms that got into the gulf and didn't amount to much for Houston. Hopefully we'll get the three peat on this one, because every weather report I've heard has this one pegged as one bad mutha.

[Anti.Hero]

No one has learned shit. If they had learned a damn thing from Katrina we would have seem far more changes. I promise you that if this storm takes a track similar to Katrina you will have almost a virtual repeat of what happened then. The levees will fail - AGAIN - and I'm not sure how many people they'll be able to evacuate.

We are talking about two different types of people.

1. The people who have lived on the coast forever and take care of themselves using common sense to avoid destruction.

2. Those who rely on the government to wipe their ass and are subject to whatever weaksauce the government throws their way.

People SHOULD understand the risk of living in NO. Especially now.

My point being, hurricanes happen all over the coast. Most communities just deal with them. What we saw in NO was the result of government dependence to the nth degree. Just a shitty situation.

[Spurminator]

We needs to build us a wall along the coast.

[MannyIsGod]

Model runs keep pointing at a Louisiana landfall. Still a long way, but the fact that even the outliers are trending to that location is not a good sign.

[Twisted_Dawg]

Manny,
Do you think John Hagee has anything to do with Gustav heading towards New Orleans?

[Das Texan]

ya from what I have recently read people in NOLA are pretty much content and dont think anything like Katrina will ever happen again.

Fact of the matter, if a strong 4 or a 5 hits NOLA they are really done for. Its their own fucking stupid fault for doing virtually the exact same thing in building that city as before Katrina.

I didnt think they could be that stupid, but then I remembered we are talking about Lousiana here.

They wont evacuate, people will be stranded, Louisiana government officials will look like complete morons again, etc

[Cry Havoc]

Wow, how did I miss this thread for so long?

Current advisories have Gustav striking the Louisiana/NO coast as a high probability, as a strong category 2 to weak category 4 hurricane.

Personally, with the loop current involved, I think he'll go at least 4. I'll say 140 mph winds at landfall.

Source: http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/nhc.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic&story=Tropical_Storm_GUSTAV_Wind_Speed_Probabiliti es_Number_9

[Extra Stout]

If we're attacked again by hurricanes, we need to invade Venezuela to show the hurricanes we won't stand for their cowardice.

[JudynTX]

Is he here yet?

[Cry Havoc]

http://i69.photobucket.com/albums/i44/mac292oh10/xyrshr872708GUSTAV.gif

That is not a good thing, folks. There are absolutely no shear forces in the Gulf of Mexico right now.

If conditions stay like this, we'll be lucky to see Gustav "only" get to a Cat 4.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Dear Mr. Benson...

:lol

[Los Spurs]

I hope people in LA will listen this time around... It was devastating to see so many people stranded back when Katrina hit.

[BacktoBasics]

I hope people in LA will listen this time around... It was devastating to see so many people stranded back when Katrina hit.This thread is about hurricanes not gay bashing.

[Donkey21]

Damn I live in Biloxi Ms, according to the blue line we will be just to the east of the storm ...:wow

[SpursWoman]

Flooding has already killed at least 22 people in Haiti & the Dominican Republic. :(

[1369]

Is it just me or does it seem to move SW as the sun passes? (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html)

[Ginofan]

Is this not the creepiest thing ever? Gustav is headed towards NOLA relatively in same time frame as the Katrina anniversary??? I just read this morning how they are almost done building the mausoleums for all of the unclaimed or unknown dead from Katrina.

Crazy shit.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Is this not the creepiest thing ever? Gustav is headed towards NOLA relatively in same time frame as the Katrina anniversary??? I just read this morning how they are almost done building the mausoleums for all of the unclaimed or unknown dead from Katrina.

Crazy shit.


i'm sure the al gore groupies and environMENTALs are dissapointed. i thought this was supposed to be a bad year on account of this nasty global warming.
Gustav - H -I - J - Katrina. so far it ain't panning out, but start preparing your blog now. al gore loves you

[MannyIsGod]

i'm sure the al gore groupies and environMENTALs are dissapointed. i thought this was supposed to be a bad year on account of this nasty global warming.
Gustav - H -I - J - Katrina. so far it ain't panning out, but start preparing your blog now. al gore loves you

Your breath stinks, but thats probably because you're speaking out of your ass. Saying that this year hasn't been active because we haven't reached the same level of 2005 storms is like saying that winning by 20 in an NBA game sucks because you didn't win by 40. The baseline for your comparison was an insane year, but that doesn't mean that this year hasn't been extremely active.

That being said, no legit meteorologist says that global warming is causing more storms. There is debatable information on whether or not we're seeing STRONGER storms as a result of global warming but the jury is still out on that.

We're used to your stupid 2 line posts that are full of ignorance, though. Go ahead, fire off your best monkey joke. You know thats the only response to this you're capable of.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

ooga booga. hurumph hurumph. looog looog bumga bunga STRONGER (beat chest repeatedly)

bunga bunga

like i said. i always slept through Chimp 101.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080409-hurricane-forecast.html

i picked a website that you could relate to

bigalee bigalee.

[MannyIsGod]

Go ahead, fire off your best monkey joke. You know thats the only response to this you're capable of.


like i said. i always slept through Chimp 101.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080409-hurricane-forecast.html

i picked a website that you could relate to

bigalee bigalee.

Didn't see that coming. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Anyway, the more the models consolidate the more the track forcast confidence rises. Even days out, when all of the models are thinking the same thing then its hard to discount it.

However, the GFS is really having a hard time with this storm because it is so compact. That should change in the near future as the send out planes to gather more data to feed the models.

[MannyIsGod]

like i said. i always slept through Chimp 101.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080409-hurricane-forecast.html

i picked a website that you could relate to

bigalee bigalee.

BTW it appears you can't read shit. From your own link - it talks about the prediction of 15 named storms this season. Well, we're not even halfway through and we're not even at the peak of the season yet and we're already at 7. An average season only has 9 named storms and we're already at 7.

What does that tell you about your retarded first post?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Clearly W. is making one last run at killing all the black people in New Orleans with his weather machine. [/Kanye, Dan, croutons]

On a more serious note, everyone would be smart to keep their gas tanks topped off for the next couple of days, this really does look like it's going to lay waste to everything in its path.

I've clients in the Houston area that are coming up to Dallas for some training at our offices next week that told me today they're planning on boarding up, bringing the family, and staying for a while (already booked out the whole week at hotels up here :wow).

[baseline bum]

Does this mean the Hornets will play in Seattle this season? Is this going to be a semi-annual thing?

[atxrocker]

gustav is homo name.

[midgetonadonkey]

Kick ass. I can't wait for more tailgating before S.A. Saints games.

Fuck the Saints but tailgating is fucking fun.

[Cry Havoc]

Your breath stinks, but thats probably because you're speaking out of your ass. Saying that this year hasn't been active because we haven't reached the same level of 2005 storms is like saying that winning by 20 in an NBA game sucks because you didn't win by 40. The baseline for your comparison was an insane year, but that doesn't mean that this year hasn't been extremely active.

That being said, no legit meteorologist says that global warming is causing more storms. There is debatable information on whether or not we're seeing STRONGER storms as a result of global warming but the jury is still out on that.

We're used to your stupid 2 line posts that are full of ignorance, though. Go ahead, fire off your best monkey joke. You know thats the only response to this you're capable of.

+1 for bringing some factual information along.

Gustav is shaping up to be a MONSTER. The GOM water temps are in the 90s right now. It's practically bath water. Prime conditions for tropical cyclogenesis is considered 87 degrees and over. Temperatures in the 90s practically guarantees that any convection that passes over it will explode.

And it appears it's already happening. Gustav could do anything at this point in terms of strength. The temps are warm enough to bring him to Cat 4 or even 5 within 60 hours. Or less. No shear and crazy hot oceanic temperatures.

The worst news of all is that nearly all of the forecast models are predicting a near-direct hit on NOLA. And it's really a no-win situation if he goes that way. The faster he moves, the more powerful winds he will bring ashore before weakening, and the slower he moves, the more water he churns to dump on New Orleans.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Kick ass. I can't wait for more tailgating before S.A. Saints games.

Fuck the Saints but tailgating is fucking fun.

No games talked about yet, but it's a start.

http://www.ksat.com/sports/17316640/detail.html

[MannyIsGod]

We'll probably have the H storm tomorrow sometime as well. This one could effect the Eastern Seaboard. It might grow quite strong itself. But you know, if you believe certain people its a slow season :rolleyes

[J.T.]

Kick ass. I can't wait for more tailgating before S.A. Saints games.

Fuck the Saints but tailgating is fucking fun.

Yeah if this Gustav thing goes down as bad as it looks, San Antonio just inherited an NFL franchise and Seattle will get an NBA team back faster than we all thought.

[MoSpur]

I saw that about the Saints on the news. They are already looking at practing here for next week. I have no idea why they went back to N.O. Jerry Jones will do all he can for S.A not to have a NFL franchise here.

[midgetonadonkey]

I saw that about the Saints on the news. They are already looking at practing here for next week. I have no idea why they went back to N.O. Jerry Jones will do all he can for S.A not to have a NFL franchise here.

But who needs an NFL franchise when you have Spring Training here every other year? :jack

[MannyIsGod]

It seems that with every hour Viva looks even dumber. We now have 2 named storms with the formation of Hannah in the Atlantic along with 3 areas that could develop in the near term.

A few of the models are calling for up to five active storms in the Atlantic Basin within the next four days. I've see 3 at a time, but I've never seen four much less five. I seriously doubt we get five - or four for that matter, but 3 is actually rather probable considering we already have 2.

Hannah is probably going to get quite strong itself but its hard to tell where its going to go. The models right now show a FL landfall. If this happens we may have 2 major hurricanes bearing down on the coast at the same time. I don't remember that ever being the case.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif

[travis2]

The model tracks spread out a bit since this morning...

[1369]

Here's another cool interactive storm tracking site...

Stormpulse (http://www.stormpulse.com/)

[IceColdBrewski]

No games talked about yet, but it's a start.

http://www.ksat.com/sports/17316640/detail.html


Damn San Antonio vultures. Stop trying to steal our team. The Saints are ours. Get your own damn team.

[/saintsfan]

[CubanMustGo]

About the only good thing Gustav might do is stir up the dead zone in the Gulf on its way in.

[Twisted_Dawg]

Kick ass. I can't wait for more tailgating before S.A. Saints games. Fuck the Saints but tailgating is fucking fun.


Damn San Antonio vultures. Stop trying to steal our team. The Saints are ours. Get your own damn team.

The San Antonio Saints....that has a nice ring especially with our Catholic heritage here. And we will get another broke dick owner which we are real used to! Perfect match.

[slowchild25]

The San Antonio Saints....that has a nice ring especially with our Catholic heritage here. And we will get another broke dick owner which we are real used to! Perfect match.

:nutkick:

[CubanMustGo]

The San Antonio Saints....that has a nice ring especially with our Catholic heritage here. And we will get another broke dick owner which we are real used to! Perfect match.

The Saint Anthony Saints?

How about Los Santos de Padua? ;-)

[nsrammstein]

I love it how when they run those graphs on CNN about the most likely way the Hurrican will go they only show the hurricane go up to level 3 when its more than likely it will be a4 or a 5

[Whisky Dog]

Fuck it, I'm moving to the country to already start acclimating myself to hunting and eating various rodents for survival once these hurricanes hit and it'll cost $300 to fill up a scooter.

[MannyIsGod]

I love it how when they run those graphs on CNN about the most likely way the Hurrican will go they only show the hurricane go up to level 3 when its more than likely it will be a4 or a 5

They go off the NHC intensity forcasts which are usually a bit conservative.

[MannyIsGod]

The model tracks spread out a bit since this morning...

They're spread out a bit because of the different initialization points I believe. When the center reformed far to the SW of the intial position it threw everything/one through a loop.

[MannyIsGod]

Wow - this is some doomsday shit if this model were to verify. I might listen to Hagee if this shit happend.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3681/082808eurobq7.gif

For those that don't know what these charts signify the first blob to hit NOLA is Gustav, the 2nd is Hanna and both are shown as major hurricanes. Back to back major hurricanes hitting NOLA would be fucking insane. Oh - it also shows a 3rd major hurricane on the heals of Hanna.

[Spurminator]

Hanna looks big enough to hit Montana. Which would be great for funny headlines if it didn't also mean 10K's had been killed in her path.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

BTW it appears you can't read shit. From your own link - it talks about the prediction of 15 named storms this season. Well, we're not even halfway through and we're not even at the peak of the season yet and we're already at 7. An average season only has 9 named storms and we're already at 7.

What does that tell you about your retarded first post?
luckily i found a chimp-to-english guide online. PRAISE NATIONAL GOEGRAPHIC!!!!. i did post "it's not panning out so far" in my initial post. which means that the date of my initial post it wasn't "panning out so far". katrina was over and done with august 30th. unless it does it's stuff in two days i'll admit i spoke too soon. also in 2005, Lee was already formed by august 28th. that's my reason for saying "it's not panning out so far".

back to your twigs and berries.


right turn, Clyde!!!
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2006/03/20/apes_wideweb__470x342,0.jpg

[Viva Las Espuelas]

It seems that with every hour Viva looks even dumber. We now have 2 named storms with the formation of Hannah in the Atlantic along with 3 areas that could develop in the near term.

A few of the models are calling for up to five active storms in the Atlantic Basin within the next four days. I've see 3 at a time, but I've never seen four much less five. I seriously doubt we get five - or four for that matter, but 3 is actually rather probable considering we already have 2.

Hannah is probably going to get quite strong itself but its hard to tell where its going to go. The models right now show a FL landfall. If this happens we may have 2 major hurricanes bearing down on the coast at the same time. I don't remember that ever being the case.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Harvey_(2005)

looking dumber by the minute is panning out

[MannyIsGod]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Harvey_(2005 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Harvey_%282005))

looking dumber by the minute is panning out

Lets see if you can follow along if I use simple sentences

See Viva post link.

See Link predict 15 storms in the season.

See the 8th storm form less than halfway through the season.

See Viva try to defend his obviously wrong remark.

See Viva post the emergency "I look really fucking stupid...again" chimp picture.

See Viva cry himself to sleep when he realizes he just got owned, again.

[Spurminator]

Monkey chimp monkey monkey.

First!

[nsrammstein]

Hanna's path looks strikingly similar to the path of Katrina, I do expect Gustav to develop into a category 4 before it hits new orleans as a category 2, but that gulf water is warmer than spurswoman's cooch.....

[MannyIsGod]

Viva, I'd like to extend an olive branch to you. This is getting silly. As a peace offering I present you with this video on RAM installation. Rumor is that you need it.

SiFIgSQOY7g

[MannyIsGod]

Hanna's path looks strikingly similar to the path of Katrina, I do expect Gustav to develop into a category 4 before it hits new orleans as a category 2, but that gulf water is warmer than spurswoman's cooch.....

Its got the potential, but its hard to say. Cat 3 is a much better bet. If it does reach Cat 4 status it likely would make landfall as at least a 3.

[SpursWoman]

Hanna's path looks strikingly similar to the path of Katrina, I do expect Gustav to develop into a category 4 before it hits new orleans as a category 2, but that gulf water is warmer than spurswoman's cooch.....


Say what?

[MannyIsGod]

Say what?

He just said your cooch can support a CAT four hurricane. :lol

[SpursWoman]

I'm not sure whether to be offended or not. :lol

[nsrammstein]

anyway this is the path of Hurricane Katrina keep in mind the gulf waters were unusually warm that date too, right now the Gulf temps are about 85 degrees which is perfect...

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/3163/katrina2005trackwp5.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/3163/ (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=&i=katrina2005trackwp5.png)

[BacktoBasics]

Any chance Hanna makes it straight across to Corpus Christi :tinfoilhat:

[nsrammstein]

Any chance Hanna makes it straight across to Corpus Christi :tinfoilhat:

Depends if there's a high pressure system in place that shifts the direction of hanna straight across the gulf and into texas which would be much worse as it could have more time to develop and strenghten

[MannyIsGod]

anyway this is the path of Hurricane Katrina keep in mind the gulf waters were unusually warm that date too, right now the Gulf temps are about 85 degrees which is perfect...

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/3163/katrina2005trackwp5.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/3163/ (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=&i=katrina2005trackwp5.png)

More importantly for Katrina it passed over a the loop current eddy which had extremely high TCHP readings which are more important than SST. It also had a perfect upper air situation to work with which allowed its outflow channels to line up incredibly well and work in an efficent manner. The more efficently a storm can move air the faster the winds go obviously.

The loop current eddy is there and is in the projected path of this storm so you could see a period of rapid intensification like Katrina but it's going to have to take a perfect path and its going to have perfect upper air conditions.

Really you're much more likely to see CAT 4 status before it even hits the Gulf because of the extremely high TCHP levels in the Carribean.


These were the TCHP readings for Katrina
http://earth.esa.int/brat/images/appli/atmosphere/katrina_tchp_sm.gif

This is the current TCHP situation
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008240go.jpg

They are incredibly similar. The upper air dynamics are in question though.

ALSO, Gustav is a pretty small storm, much smaller than Katrina. Because of that it doesn't really have the ability to generate its own environment. That may very well change, but that remainds to be seen.

Anyway I guess the point is there's a lot more too it than the SSTs.

[MannyIsGod]

Any chance Hanna makes it straight across to Corpus Christi :tinfoilhat:

Can't really say this far out but given the way everything is set up right now I'd have to say its unlikely.

[BacktoBasics]

Can't really say this far out but given the way everything is set up right now I'd have to say its unlikely.If it does head my way can we come and stay with you since Jekka isn't around? It'll only be the 5 of us. We're neat and I'll bring beer and food. If they act up you can hit my kids too.

[MannyIsGod]

Do I get free life coaching in exchange?

[nsrammstein]

If it does head my way can we come and stay with you since Jekka isn't around? It'll only be the 5 of us. We're neat and I'll bring beer and food. If they act up you can hit my kids too.

wtf?

[BacktoBasics]

Do I get free life coaching in exchange?

Fuck yeah. I'll get all drunk and blabber on about all kinds of shit.


wtf?

:(

[nsrammstein]

So manny, do you think I have a career in the field of Meteorology waiting for me? I'm only 19 but weather is very interesting and intriguing to me

[MannyIsGod]

Haha dude if you like it I say do it. I'm doing it now, but I wish I had done it at 19.

[BacktoBasics]

Haha dude if you like it I say do it. I'm doing it now, but I wish I had done it at 19.
Your studying to be a meteorologist

[nsrammstein]

Your studying to be a meteorologist

stop asking questions you already know the answer to

[BacktoBasics]

stop asking questions you already know the answer toI don't know the answer thats why I asked.

[MannyIsGod]

Your studying to be a meteorologist

I'm back in school as an atmospheric sciences major. Its part of the reason I'm not in MI yet.

[BacktoBasics]

I'm back in school as an atmospheric sciences major. Its part of the reason I'm not in MI yet.
Are you going to do news casts and wear bad suits and stuff?

How long until you're finished? Is this a specialty school or regular college?

[nsrammstein]

Are you going to do news casts and wear bad suits and stuff?

How long until you're finished? Is this a specialty school or regular college?

Just go ahead and aks him if you can see him in metallic blue biking shorts already!

[MannyIsGod]

I'd never do news shit. I don't have the face for it to begin with, and all they do is repeat the bullshit the NWS gives them with the exception of one or two guys like the dude in OKC who is a tornado expert.

I'm just at SAC right now. I'm going to end up at either MI, A&M or Tech more than likely. I may end up somewhere else but if I do I'll have to take a break in order to establish residency. 30k per semester for tution is scary shit. And thats some STATE schools.

If I bust my ass I can finish in another 2 1/2 years. Thats assuming all my credits from when i went to SAC before xfer which will vary from school to school. I will probably also try to get an undergrad in CS at the same time to make myself more employable and give me a fall back.

[BushDynasty]

I'm gonna need me a garderner, umm weatherman when I retire next year. Call me!

[Cry Havoc]

I'd never do news shit. I don't have the face for it to begin with, and all they do is repeat the bullshit the NWS gives them with the exception of one or two guys like the dude in OKC who is a tornado expert.

I'm just at SAC right now. I'm going to end up at either MI, A&M or Tech more than likely. I may end up somewhere else but if I do I'll have to take a break in order to establish residency. 30k per semester for tution is scary shit. And thats some STATE schools.

If I bust my ass I can finish in another 2 1/2 years. Thats assuming all my credits from when i went to SAC before xfer which will vary from school to school. I will probably also try to get an undergrad in CS at the same time to make myself more employable and give me a fall back.

You should join the accuweather forums. The people there have a really good understanding of what's going on.

The prediction now is that if Gustav stays under a cat 3, it's going to head for Texas. The stronger he gets.... the more to the East he turns. This means if he goes cat 4 or 5 he's probably going to head straight for NOLA. Not good.

And Gulf temps right now have been measured as high as 92 degrees in the past few days. Also not good.

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/gulf.png

Really, really, not good. I look for Gustav to undergo explosive deepening within the next 48 hours.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Harvey_(2005)

looking dumber by the minute is panning out

How is what you said panning out, exactly? You mean this hurricane season isn't as active as 2005, the most active season in history? CONGRATS. No one said it would be.

Again, what's your point?

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Lets see if you can follow along if I use simple sentences

See Viva post link.

See Link predict 15 storms in the season.

See the 8th storm form less than halfway through the season.

See Viva try to defend his obviously wrong remark.

See Viva post the emergency "I look really fucking stupid...again" chimp picture.

See Viva cry himself to sleep when he realizes he just got owned, again.

i guess primates don't comprehend dates and timelines. maybe the Fossey foundation can work on that.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Viva, I'd like to extend an olive branch to you. This is getting silly. As a peace offering I present you with this video on RAM installation. Rumor is that you need it.

SiFIgSQOY7g


thanks. i feel the need to put your family film to music as a token of my gratitude. a picture of a bunch of bananas would just be too cruel, you Rounders fan, you. enjoy:toast

pOj_QoSH6is

[CuckingFunt]

How is what you said panning out, exactly? You mean this hurricane season isn't as active as 2005, the most active season in history? CONGRATS. No one said it would be.

Again, what's your point?


Manny is an ape... Al Gore... environMENTALs... bigalee

[slowchild25]

I'd never do news shit. I don't have the face for it to begin with, and all they do is repeat the bullshit the NWS gives them with the exception of one or two guys like the dude in OKC who is a tornado expert.

I'm just at SAC right now. I'm going to end up at either MI, A&M or Tech more than likely. I may end up somewhere else but if I do I'll have to take a break in order to establish residency. 30k per semester for tution is scary shit. And thats some STATE schools.

If I bust my ass I can finish in another 2 1/2 years. Thats assuming all my credits from when i went to SAC before xfer which will vary from school to school. I will probably also try to get an undergrad in CS at the same time to make myself more employable and give me a fall back.

My beast friend graduated from ULM with an Atmospheric Sciences degree and is a "behind the scenes" guy not a talking head moron. Once you graduate be prepared to move around a bit, apparently there is a lot of competition for these jobs. He started out in Deluth, Minn and is now in Miami. A couple of his friends even did some stints in Alaska.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

How is what you said panning out, exactly? You mean this hurricane season isn't as active as 2005, the most active season in history? CONGRATS. No one said it would be.

Again, what's your point?



Manny is an ape... Al Gore... environMENTALs... bigalee



i guess someone didn't get enough attention today. it'll be ok, mijita.

[Trainwreck2100]

My beast friend graduated from ULM with an Atmospheric Sciences degree and is a "behind the scenes" guy not a talking head moron. Once you graduate be prepared to move around a bit, apparently there is a lot of competition for these jobs. He started out in Deluth, Minn and is now in Miami. A couple of his friends even did some stints in Alaska.

holy shit, an animal that know meteorology

[Trainwreck2100]

I'd never do news shit. I don't have the face for it to begin with, and all they do is repeat the bullshit the NWS gives them with the exception of one or two guys like the dude in OKC who is a tornado expert.

I'm just at SAC right now. I'm going to end up at either MI, A&M or Tech more than likely. I may end up somewhere else but if I do I'll have to take a break in order to establish residency. 30k per semester for tution is scary shit. And thats some STATE schools.

If I bust my ass I can finish in another 2 1/2 years. Thats assuming all my credits from when i went to SAC before xfer which will vary from school to school. I will probably also try to get an undergrad in CS at the same time to make myself more employable and give me a fall back.

Also Manny as long as you get your Associates any school in TX has to take your credits its a law now. That's why Career point and Hallmark get away with calling themselves colleges now

[Cry Havoc]

i guess someone didn't get enough attention today. it'll be ok, mijita.

How is what you said panning out, exactly? You mean this hurricane season isn't as active as 2005, the most active season in history? CONGRATS. No one said it would be.

Again, what's your point?

Care to answer the question this time? Or are you just here to continually spout ignorance?

[slowchild25]

holy shit, an animal that know meteorology

http://stickandballguy.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/simpsons-the-doh-4900579.jpg

Me know put words good together thing much.

[midgetonadonkey]

How is what you said panning out, exactly? You mean this hurricane season isn't as active as 2005, the most active season in history? CONGRATS. No one said it would be.

Again, what's your point?

Care to answer the question this time? Or are you just here to continually spout ignorance?

He can spout nothing more. He is a worse poster than I am.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

How is what you said panning out, exactly? You mean this hurricane season isn't as active as 2005, the most active season in history? CONGRATS. No one said it would be.

Again, what's your point?

Care to answer the question this time? Or are you just here to continually spout ignorance?
well i don't know what i lodged in your butt, but i'll satisfy your need. my very simple point is we're currently faced with a tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the hell you want to call it--that starts with a letter that formed more than 20 days later compared to another tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the hell you want to call it--that ,coincidentally, started with the same letter back in 2005. it's my understanding they're assigned a name alphabetically corresponding to when they form. going off those facts it seems that it's not panning out to be a busy hurricane season, thus disappointing al gore groupies and environMENTALs.

[MannyIsGod]

well i don't know what i lodged in your butt, but i'll satisfy your need. my very simple point is we're currently faced with a tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the hell you want to call it--that starts with a letter that formed more than 20 days later compared to another tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the hell you want to call it--that ,coincidentally, started with the same letter back in 2005. it's my understanding they're assigned a name alphabetically corresponding to when they form. going off those facts it seems that it's not panning out to be a busy hurricane season, thus disappointing al gore groupies and environMENTALs.

In other words you find logic to fit whatever you want to believe?

Listen carefully. The story you linked showed a prediction of 15 named storms this season. We are currently on number 8 - note that is more than half of 15 - and we are not yet halfway through this season if you break it down in a chronological manner. Furthermore, the 2nd half of the season is typically the busiest half.

The prediction was for a busy season of 15 storms. The prediction was NOT for a repeat of 2005. You need to comprehend that a season can be less intense than 2005 and STILL BE BUSY.

Fuck its not a very difficult concept. Just fucking admit you didn't know what the hell you were talking about and move on. You don't have to constantly prove to everyone how stupid you are. We get it.

[midgetonadonkey]

In other words you find logic to fit whatever you want to believe?

Listen carefully. The story you linked showed a prediction of 15 named storms this season. We are currently on number 8 - note that is more than half of 15 - and we are not yet halfway through this season if you break it down in a chronological manner. Furthermore, the 2nd half of the season is typically the busiest half.

The prediction was for a busy season of 15 storms. The prediction was NOT for a repeat of 2005. You need to comprehend that a season can be less intense than 2005 and STILL BE BUSY.

Fuck its not a very difficult concept. Just fucking admit you didn't know what the hell you were talking about and move on. You don't have to constantly prove to everyone how stupid you are. We get it.

I get it. Viva is so fucking stupid that Peewee>>>>>Viva. And that's pretty fucking sad because Peewee is a fucking down syndrome poster.

[MannyIsGod]

I get it. Viva is so fucking stupid that Peewee>>>>>Viva. And that's pretty fucking sad because Peewee is a fucking down syndrome poster.

Viva would lose to PeeWee in every Special Olympic Event there is. PeeWee would be like the Chinese Gymnasts of the Special Olympics and Viva would be fucking Morocco.

[CuckingFunt]

i guess someone didn't get enough attention today. it'll be ok, mijita.

Yeah. That was relevant.

[midgetonadonkey]

I'm waiting for the classic "palabra" reply from Viva. It's "word" in spanish. That is so witty and clever. I'm sure nobody ever thought of making the "word" reply in Spanish. But he did and is terribly clever and witty for doing so. I can't wait for it.

"Word" in Spanish?

Fuck I don't think I can handle such wittiness.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm waiting for the classic "palabra" reply from Viva. It's "word" in spanish. That is so witty and clever. I'm sure nobody ever thought of making the "word" reply in Spanish. But he did and is terribly clever and witty for doing so. I can't wait for it.

"Word" in Spanish?

Fuck I don't think I can handle such wittiness.

I seem to remember a former poster who used to resort to Spanish when they were challenged.

[CuckingFunt]

I seem to remember a former poster who used to resort to Spanish when they were challenged.

¿Quien?

[midgetonadonkey]

¿Quien?

Danny Trejo

[CuckingFunt]

I hope Machete becomes a real movie.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Danny Trejo

The Mexican Chuck Norris.

[AlamoSpursFan]

The Mexican Chuck Norris.

So who would be the Mexican Jack Bauer?

[Ginofan]

Well out of the 6 computer models on wundground.com, 3 show that Gus is headed for texas and the other 3 show for louisiana.

[Cry Havoc]

well i don't know what i lodged in your butt, but i'll satisfy your need. my very simple point is we're currently faced with a tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the hell you want to call it--that starts with a letter that formed more than 20 days later compared to another tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the hell you want to call it--that ,coincidentally, started with the same letter back in 2005. it's my understanding they're assigned a name alphabetically corresponding to when they form. going off those facts it seems that it's not panning out to be a busy hurricane season, thus disappointing al gore groupies and environMENTALs.

2005 was the most active hurricane season on record. It broke a record for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, and category 5 storms.

The previous record was set in 1933. And if things continue on course with this season, it stands a chance to be one of the 5 most active seasons in history. But you repeatedly state that it's a quiet Atlantic ocean out there.

Again. You don't know what you're talking about. Step down.

[Ginofan]

Yesterday, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft dropped a network of 60 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data are now feeding directly into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, but not into the other global models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF). In theory, the intensity forecasts from the GFDL and HWRF models should be better, for the portion of Gustav's track over the Gulf. Both of these models are currently calling for Gustav to be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. The HWRF is saying this landfall will be near New Orleans Monday night, and the GFDL predicts a Mississippi landfall Monday morning.

[MannyIsGod]

The HWRF basically brings Gustav right up to NO. Its a pretty shitty scenario for them.

[Los Spurs]

The HWRF basically brings Gustav right up to NO. Its a pretty shitty scenario for them.

I just want to say, thanks to Manny for keeping us all on the loop of things regarding this damn hurricane.

[MannyIsGod]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

I want to say the GFS has been run since this image was made and its shifted more to the East. They really need to get the upper air P3 planes up in order to lock down these models.

With possible landfall being closer to 3 days out now we will get a much better sense of statistical accuracy out of these models.

[BacktoBasics]

Some of those lines are awefully close to Corpus

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the new HWRF is also picking up on the SW turn. It has the storm come to about 10-30 miles from the LA coast - then turn SW.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW if you like cheap oil prices, these models that bring the storm close to LA then turn it west should pretty much make you want to puke.

[1369]

Latest vortex message

http://a6.vox.com/6a00e398bd835f000200fad6a7a6ae0005-pi

[ATRAIN]

Hey Manny, as of right now where to you expect it to hit?

[ATRAIN]

Also how the fuck does manny know so much about the weather? What do you do for work?

[MannyIsGod]

Also how the fuck does manny know so much about the weather? What do you do for work?

I play poker. :lmao

It could go anywhere from Mississippi to the Upper Texas Coast. I do think B2B is safe in Corpus but I've also seen crazier shit so who knows.

On a good note, if he had to evacuate think of all the life experiences he'd be able to write threads about while sitting in gridlock on 35.

[BacktoBasics]

It would be gridlock on 37.

Gridlock would certainly cause melting....I'd probably cause more personal and public damage than the actual storm.

[ATRAIN]

I play poker. :lmao

It could go anywhere from Mississippi to the Upper Texas Coast. I do think B2B is safe in Corpus but I've also seen crazier shit so who knows.

On a good note, if he had to evacuate think of all the life experiences he'd be able to write threads about while sitting in gridlock on 35.

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME, you play poker for a living. So are you going to answer how you know so much about the weather??

[ATRAIN]

It would be gridlock on 37.

Gridlock would certainly cause melting....I'd probably cause more personal and public damage than the actual storm.

LMAO

[Ginofan]

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME, you play poker for a living. So are you going to answer how you know so much about the weather??

Manny is a weather nerd, that's how knows so much. I remember when Katrina was coming and we had a little nerd party watching Katrina come ashore on satellite and looking at all the damn radars and shit.

You just have to read to learn.

[Los Spurs]

I play poker. :lmao

It could go anywhere from Mississippi to the Upper Texas Coast. I do think B2B is safe in Corpus but I've also seen crazier shit so who knows.

On a good note, if he had to evacuate think of all the life experiences he'd be able to write threads about while sitting in gridlock on 35.

Well, for being a King of Poker you certainly do good when it comes to the weather. We can always use another weather man on channel 5.

[MannyIsGod]

I've just always been really into it. I find it really fascinating to watch them and to read about past storms. Its not just hurricanes though, its pretty much all weather. I just read a ton about it and always look for more info on it.

[Los Spurs]

I've just always been really into it. I find it really fascinating to watch them and to read about past storms. Its not just hurricanes though, its pretty much all weather. I just read a ton about it and always look for more info on it.

Storm Chaser???

[MannyIsGod]

I've never chased anything. I'd like to, so I probably will at some point in the future but not as of yet. I actually wanted to chase Dolly earlier this year but I was in Big Bend when it was coming ashore. It would have been an excellent chance.

[ATRAIN]

I've never chased anything. I'd like to, so I probably will at some point in the future but not as of yet. I actually wanted to chase Dolly earlier this year but I was in Big Bend when it was coming ashore. It would have been an excellent chance.

You should be a Tornado chaser.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav's central pressure has lowered to 988 millibars. Outflow is looking incredible in all directions. As soon as he emerged from the coast of Jamaica, he began to pick up strength.

Hurricane hunter aircraft are expecting to find a developing eye. Gustav is also significantly expanding in size and only the steering upper winds are giving him a light sheer right now, but that's not enough to prevent further strengthening.

http://i69.photobucket.com/albums/i44/mac292oh10/vis-lGUSTAV82908100.jpg

Eye formation is beginning here.

Water temps look dangerously perfect at the moment, if Gustav follows the expected track.

http://www.marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/regions/gulfmexico/sst/noaa/2008/img/080829.242.0311.n17.jpg


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_1/12/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml

A huge, animated photo of the NCEP model for path and intensity of Gustav.

Lowest pressure shown is 920 millibars as he approaches the coast, which is category 5 strength. That does not bode well for anyone in Louisiana, let alone just New Orleans.

This storm is serious. If you live near the coast, now would be the time to start evacuating ahead of the crowd (looks like that's a bit late already for NOLA).


Also, to those in Florida, PLEASE do not disregard Hannah. I'm making a separate thread about her so that she doesn't get lost in Gustav's swagger.

[MannyIsGod]

Outflow isn't looking that great to the west actually. If you look at water vapor loops you will see that it is kinda restricted because of a trough over the Gulf.

[1369]

They've re-tasked the hurricane hunter that fixed the center about an hour ago and sent him back in.

http://a4.vox.com/6a00e398bd835f000200fad6a7aaac0005-pi

[ATRAIN]

Outflow isn't looking that great to the west actually. If you look at water vapor loops you will see that it is kinda restricted because of a trough over the Gulf.

Fucking A manny you need to get out more.

[Cry Havoc]

Outflow isn't looking that great to the west actually. If you look at water vapor loops you will see that it is kinda restricted because of a trough over the Gulf.

Yeah, I did mention he's getting sheared a bit, but when his eye is established he's going to start sucking up that warm water like candy.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/ei/isaecar.gif

Look how much he increases in size in under three hours!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

Pressure dropped over 4mb the past hour. Thats a pretty severe drop that quickly. The next few hours will be interesting. Everyone's been waiting for it to explode and it might be about to do that.

[1369]

Gustav has regained hurricane status.

[Cry Havoc]

Winds at 75 mph. Central pressure is 978.4 mb.


Look at the convection around the center! Those cloud tops are going up and getting cold, quickly.

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/visloop.gif

Eye is closed now at 29 miles wide and circular... as per latest RECON

[mrsmaalox]

Sorry but every time I hear the name Gustav, I get this little flash :bang

http://thecia.com.au/reviews/s/images/shadow-of-the-vampire-5.jpg

The great Gustav von Wangenheim (Eddie Izzard)

[SpursWoman]

It's time to leave New Orleans



Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h_pRg8PjsWyfviUQrPDgGKV_FnoQ) have already begun, which is a good idea.

[MannyIsGod]

I think they should wait to see what the models say tonight. But tomorrow morning may be time to order the evacs.

[Cry Havoc]

I think they should wait to see what the models say tonight. But tomorrow morning may be time to order the evacs.

Agreed. Though if I was living in NO, I would be heading out the door right now.

[Cry Havoc]

Looks like the eye of Gustav has opened up a little. He might weaken, but the convection around his eye is just crazy... if he can reform that eye, he will deepen incredibly fast.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav has reached Category 2 status, with winds of 90 mph and a central pressure of 964 millibars.

He is expected to be a strong to max Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, according to the GDFL.

Personally, I think we will see Gustav peak around 905 millibars as a Category 5, with winds of 170 mph. I think he'll land as a weak cat4 to a strong cat3.

Please, to all along the coast -- keep an eye out for this one. He could do anything yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

The AVN satellite infrared now shoes a clear, closed off eye. It's wrapped with convection, and now there appears to be little to stop Gustav from building strength.

Gonna be a rough start to the week along the Southern coastline.

[MannyIsGod]

905 is really really really low. I don't think we'll see it go that low. Its going to be damn strong though. I think it has a small chance to reach Cat 5 status.

[nsrammstein]

Looks like the CNN weathermen failed and I was right

[RashoFan]

I think they should wait to see what the models say tonight. But tomorrow morning may be time to order the evacs.


Agreed. Though if I was living in NO, I would be heading out the door right now.

I would be packing up and getting all amityville horror house if I was in NOLA....get out!

[MannyIsGod]

The fucker is really starting to blow up at the moment. I don't know but this thing might hit Cat 4 before it even hits Cuba. If it does that then CH may be right with his pressure prediction. Fucking nuts.

[Shelly]

I would be packing up and getting all amityville horror house if I was in NOLA....get out!

:lol I always say GET OUT to my kids before I pull into the garage.

The cone of uncertainty seems quite large for Gustav. Perhaps B2B should start planning his evacuation plan.

[GuerillaBlack]

The fucker is really starting to blow up at the moment. I don't know but this thing might hit Cat 4 before it even hits Cuba. If it does that then CH may be right with his pressure prediction. Fucking nuts.

This thing has reached Cat 4 status and is below 1000 MB already.


I would be packing up and getting all amityville horror house if I was in NOLA....get out!

Uh...I sure would. Gustav could be worse for New Orleans than Katrina was. Katrina hit New Orleans with the "weak" side. If Gustav hits in Central Louisiana (looking more likely), it'll hit New Orleans with the "strong" side:


On Thursday and Friday some models, such as the GFDL, brought Gustav into Louisiana right over Plaquemines Parish, at an angle and location that would produce the worst possible surge in New Orleans. The panel below from yesterday's GFDL model shows category 4 winds blowing water directly into Lake Pontchartrain:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/slp12gustavneworleans.gif

The above model run is just about the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. In such a scenario water would flood into the city from the lake, which could drown the city again, and possibly to an even worse degree.

Fortunately the model (as well as most others) now bring the storm just far enough west of New Orleans that the surge will likely be less than Katrina, but only a little.

If the forecast track shifts even modestly to the east -- say 50 miles, well within the three-day error of such forecasts -- then New Orleans faces an extremely serious event. It's worth noting, of course, that Gustav could just as easily shift another 100 miles to the west, all but ending the threat to New Orleans.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/hurricanes/gustav/

[Cry Havoc]

The fucker is really starting to blow up at the moment. I don't know but this thing might hit Cat 4 before it even hits Cuba. If it does that then CH may be right with his pressure prediction. Fucking nuts.

I just don't see ANY reason to hold Gustav back right now.

Practically no sheer once he emerges into the Gulf with a HUGE body of warm water.... and a loop current on top of that!

Rita and Katrina both passed over the loop current and exploded... I see much the same here. He's going to be incredible to watch -- and so beautiful too, even as sadly destructive as he is. The ability of mother nature to make such astonishing displays of power never ceases to amaze me.

Gustav is nearing Cat 4 status with a CP of 954 mbs.

The latest GFDL shows.....

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13549-1220106904.png

Gustav becoming the 4th Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States. Scary. And that's been the most accurate model so far this year for hurricanes.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Hanna's path looks strikingly similar to the path of Katrina, I do expect Gustav to develop into a category 4 before it hits new orleans as a category 2, but that gulf water is warmer than spurswoman's cooch.....

ROFLrofl
spurswoman are you gonna let him get away with that

[Cry Havoc]

ROFLrofl
spurswoman are you gonna let him get away with that

I'm not sure how she would prove him wrong.... :wow

[Booharv]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nah.f126h.gif

Oh yeah, I understand that. No need to explain it.

[MannyIsGod]

I just don't see ANY reason to hold Gustav back right now.

Practically no sheer once he emerges into the Gulf with a HUGE body of warm water.... and a loop current on top of that!

Rita and Katrina both passed over the loop current and exploded... I see much the same here. He's going to be incredible to watch -- and so beautiful too, even as sadly destructive as he is. The ability of mother nature to make such astonishing displays of power never ceases to amaze me.

Gustav is nearing Cat 4 status with a CP of 954 mbs.

The latest GFDL shows.....

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13549-1220106904.png

Gustav becoming the 4th Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States. Scary. And that's been the most accurate model so far this year for hurricanes.

There's actually a ton of shear to the north right now and its not sure how fast that will clear out. what is amazing is that (they just got readings of cat four winds) he's gotten this strong with less than perfect conditions.

Scary.

[MannyIsGod]

Press 944 and they found 140kt fllight level winds so its probably up to 140 mph at the surface. Cuba is about to take it up the ass.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh and the windfield is getting larger. Thats bad bad bad for storm surge. This storm is just looking like Katrina 2 no matter how you slice it up.

[Cry Havoc]

There's actually a ton of shear to the north right now and its not sure how fast that will clear out. what is amazing is that (they just got readings of cat four winds) he's gotten this strong with less than perfect conditions.

Scary.

I think it's pretty much a consensus that there will be little shear for Gustav in the GOM. I could be wrong though.

One thing I DO know is that the loop current is going to make this absolutely explode again.

[GuerillaBlack]

Oh and the windfield is getting larger. Thats bad bad bad for storm surge. This storm is just looking like Katrina 2 no matter how you slice it up.

Worse than Katrina even. If you can believe it, Katrina hit New Orleans with its weak side and look at all the shit that happened. Gustav will be hitting New Orleans with its strong side. So, even worse. Doesn't help that the storm is getting bigger and bigger (size wise, but winds are increasing and pressure is dropping fast).

[Cry Havoc]

Internal pressure of Gustav was just recorded at 943.7 millibars.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a category 4 hurricane.

[nsrammstein]

sons be prepared to watch the thousands of people in the gulf coast that are living off the government when they can still work FAIL

[Cry Havoc]

935 mb!!!!!! OH MY GOD! A 20 mb drop in 2 hours!

[GuerillaBlack]

935 mb!!!!!! OH MY GOD! A 20 mb drop in 2 hours!

And this bitch hasn't even hit the really warm waters yet. Damn.

[BacktoBasics]

This better not come to Corpus

[Ginofan]

Is it FOR SURE that Gus is supposed to hit the loop current? Dr. Masters was saying something about Gus only hitting a portion of the loop current and then hitting up the Cold Eddy...

Do y'all think a Texas landfall is still highly unlikely?

[Cry Havoc]

And this bitch hasn't even hit the really warm waters yet. Damn.

Gustav has already attained the PEAK strength assigned by the The Weather Channel, the strongest they said the storm would get. It's 15 mb away from Cat 5 status.

[GuerillaBlack]

Gustav has already attained the PEAK strength assigned by the The Weather Channel, the strongest they said the storm would get. It's 15 mb away from Cat 5 status.

And that's some scary stuff. My relatives are already leaving the Lake Charles area. They aren't taking any chances. New Orleans, depending on where Gustav hits, will have worse flooding than what Katrina did.

[MannyIsGod]

Worse than Katrina even. If you can believe it, Katrina hit New Orleans with its weak side and look at all the shit that happened. Gustav will be hitting New Orleans with its strong side. So, even worse. Doesn't help that the storm is getting bigger and bigger (size wise, but winds are increasing and pressure is dropping fast).

Katrina was bad for NO largely because it had CAT 5 storm surge combined with poor engineering around the city. Its all about angles, this could be worse it could end up being about the same or it could be less.

The parishes to the south will almost certainly be fucked harder this time. Just because this doesn't flood (IF it doesn't) downtown NO that doesn't mean the NO metro area won't suffer horribly.

Man, this scenario just fucking sucks right now.

[MannyIsGod]

935 mb!!!!!! OH MY GOD! A 20 mb drop in 2 hours!

pressure is probably still at 945 - if you look at the data on that dropsonde it wasn't accurate.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

The planet doesn't want us here.

[MannyIsGod]

Is it FOR SURE that Gus is supposed to hit the loop current? Dr. Masters was saying something about Gus only hitting a portion of the loop current and then hitting up the Cold Eddy...

Do y'all think a Texas landfall is still highly unlikely?

It may not hit the loop current eddy, but its for sure going to hit the loop current.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008242go.jpg

There is an eddy of cooler waters just to the north of that, but really its moving fast enough to where thats not going to weaken it. I mean the passage over Cuba is only going to weaken it to maybe a strong cat 3 (if that) so passage over colder water might have a smilllar affect.

For a reference the latest run of the HWRF which is a decent model is projecting a 904mb storm at landfall. Katrina at her strongest (not nearly at landfall) was only 902. Anyone hoping for this thing to weaken in the Gulf is going to be dissapointed.

And no, this close in its almost for sure going to be a landfall somewhere in LA.

[Cry Havoc]

pressure is probably still at 945 - if you look at the data on that dropsonde it wasn't accurate.

They've repeatedly announced it on the air, so I'm guessing they got some kind of confirmation. Flight level winds at 165mph. He's a classic Cat 4 all the way.

Forecast models are now in mostly agreement... central to eastern LA landfall.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-15344-1220114070.png


There is an eddy of cooler waters just to the north of that, but really its moving fast enough to where thats not going to weaken it. I mean the passage over Cuba is only going to weaken it to maybe a strong cat 3 (if that) so passage over colder water might have a smilllar affect.

Actually the updated models show that Gustav does not weaken over Cuba, because it's ramping up so fast that it's just going to maintain intensity instead of weakening.

Every hour this is looking more and more like worst-case scenario.

[GuerillaBlack]

My cousins are already talking about going to school up here in DFW. i don't think it'll be that serious, but you never know.

[Cry Havoc]

Stadium effect eyewall is now in place. Freaking amazing.

[MannyIsGod]

Cry the TWC is wrong. We'll see what Recon finds on next pass but the lowest good pressure they found was 945 (nothing to sneeze at on its own anyway)

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_08_2008/post-1837-1220118758.gif

Man, some poor Cubans are getting it hard right now.

[Cry Havoc]

Cry the TWC is wrong. We'll see what Recon finds on next pass but the lowest good pressure they found was 945 (nothing to sneeze at on its own anyway)

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_08_2008/post-1837-1220118758.gif

Man, some poor Cubans are getting it hard right now.

It wouldn't surprise me if they were wrong. But I bet it's close to a cat 5 before it hits Cuba anyway.

[BacktoBasics]

Why are there always asshats projecting strange paths like pictured above. Fucking hell one of those lines has this hurricane circling the gulf like its dancing around a hat until it ends up in Mexico. I don't get that shit.

[Cry Havoc]

Why are there always asshats projecting strange paths like pictured above. Fucking hell one of those lines has this hurricane circling the gulf like its dancing around a hat until it ends up in Mexico. I don't get that shit.

They are computer models. Some of them aren't as accurate because they focus on less relevant steering factors. But it's important to know what they say anyway, as it helps to build a composite idea of what the general consensus is (among computers, anyway).

[Cry Havoc]

Headline now on MSNBC:

"Gustav could become Category 5 before crossing Cuba, forecasters say."

[GuerillaBlack]

It wouldn't surprise me if they were wrong. But I bet it's close to a cat 5 before it hits Cuba anyway.

You're right sir.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

[baseline bum]

They are computer models. Some of them aren't as accurate because they focus on less relevant steering factors. But it's important to know what they say anyway, as it helps to build a composite idea of what the general consensus is (among computers, anyway).

Aren't the differential equations used to predict hurricane tracks chaotic? As in, arbitrarily small errors in any measurements such as wind velocity, pressure, humidity, etc. will cause unpredictable errors in the prediction outside of a (small) local area of time.

[Cry Havoc]

Aren't the differential equations used to predict hurricane tracks chaotic? As in, arbitrarily small errors in any measurements such as wind velocity, pressure, humidity, etc. will cause unpredictable errors in the prediction outside of a (small) local area of time.

Right. Each model uses a different primary measurement to indicate storm track. Some years, the models don't take into account major players in the atmosphere, and so you wind up with a track that takes Gustav into Florida (~1% chance).

This year so far, the GFDL has been accurate as far as path, and the GFDI has been relatively more accurate in regards to intensity.

Almost all of the forecast models blew the call on this one though. Gustav is far stronger than any computer predicted it was going to be. An example of how humans are still able to extrapolate important data to make more accurate predictions than most storm models at this point in technology's history.

[SpursWoman]

PSA: Gas at the Exxon by Rolling Oaks mall is still $3.39 ... I doubt it's going to stay that low much longer. And they were packed. :fro

[GuerillaBlack]

Oh damn. So, Gustav wants an encore? Models have it turning back around after landfall:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

[Ginofan]

Oh damn. So, Gustav wants an encore? Models have it turning back around after landfall:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

Jeez louise! That would put it real close to the Texas coast if there was a turn around

[travis2]

My mom's family is from New Iberia, and I still have an aunt living there. Current model consensus has this thing storming right into Vermillion Bay.

I hope she's getting out now...

[MannyIsGod]

More likely than a turn around is a simple stall over LA dropping bucket after bucket after bucket of rain. 30-40 inches of rain, can you imagine what that would do?

[Heath Ledger]

Scary shit it is predicted to hit Category 5. Oh well surely people will evacuate this time right? What could possibly go wrong?? :rolleyes

[T Park]

Seems like Jindal has got it running smooth, at least thats the word from there that everything is running great on evacuations

[MannyIsGod]

Katrina taught a tough lesson. The city may get fucked up once again, but hopefully this time we won't see what was truly horrible about Katrina: people stuck in hell.

[Cry Havoc]

The problem with current forecast models is that they are based on old data. As Gustav passes the Cat5 limit, there is a greater chance he will bank to the right. Those highs will not even affect him if he ramps up to ~900 millibars.


I think he's going to hit NO dead on.

[RashoFan]

Tough lesson to have learn three years ago, and it does appear that MANY people are taking heed and getting out. News station reporting that it has been about a 2 hour wait to board buses to evac out of NOLA, which is not bad considering it could have been a CF!

I am curious to know what is going on at the San Antonio EOC since we are a large enough metropolitan area (that is INLAND!!) that many displaced LA and Texas Gulf coast residents came to in 2005 and will be coming to this weekend. The staging of buses to go into the areas that being evac, the management of medical transports of special needs patients to facilities that can accomadate them, the co-ordination of mutual aid among, Fire and Rescue services and many other personnel/services that are needed. Tough lesson learned indeed. I think things are better organized now than 3 years ago, but the system is about to get tested and I hope it will proves its mettle to be a good system. Prayers and thoughts to those evacuating out and to those that are in placed to assist them in any fashion.

[GuerillaBlack]

Buses are heading north to the Tyler, Longview-Marshall, and Shreveport metropolitan areas. None west of Houston from what I know.

[Cry Havoc]

The storm is now moving to the NW or NNW. Updated forecast tracks from Accuweather takes it directly to the west of New Orleans. The city might cease to exist after this.

[MannyIsGod]

Last run of the GFDL is a direct hit on NOLA.

[Cry Havoc]

Forecast models now show Gustav taking an extreme NW track, far east of where the models predicted it would be at this point.


....


Not good.

*edit* Damn you, manny. You beat me by 60 seconds. *shakes fist*

[MannyIsGod]

Actually it seems more like almost EVERY major model run at 18z shows a direct hit on NOLA.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Not to sound callous, but hopefully we put up a wall at the border on I-10, or are at least doing background checks on the people crossing. Hopefully Houston won't be taking it up the rear again from the NO trash :td

This thing is a beast, it just may finish off New Orleans, at least as we know it.

[baseline bum]

Actually it seems more like almost EVERY major model run at 18z shows a direct hit on NOLA.

Link? The map on the first page is almost 4 hours old. Where are you getting the newest ones?

[Buddy Holly]

Buses are heading north to the Tyler, Longview-Marshall, and Shreveport metropolitan areas. None west of Houston from what I know.

Whether buses head here or not, SA and the San Antonio EOC will play a big part in the response.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26432490/

Video:
http://www.mysanantonio.com/videos/27684714.html

[GuerillaBlack]

Link? The map on the first page is almost 4 hours old. Where are you getting the newest ones?

18z GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008083018&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2008083018/slp8.png

18z UKMET:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...;hour=Animation (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008083018&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2008083018/slp8.png

[MannyIsGod]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL048.gif
Thats the GFDL

[MannyIsGod]

GFDL shows it at 933 MB at landfall which is lower than it is now. Insane. I'm not sure if the models had the ABXT data of the ocean temp fed into them or not.

[GuerillaBlack]

If the eye hits just to the west of New Orleans, Gustav will do more damage than Katrina. Luckily, the Katrina catastrophe won't happen again (or at least I hope we don't see mass looting and bodies flooding in the streets).

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_1/18/images/hwrf_pcp_042m.gif

This is the HWRF - shows it more powerful than the GFDL.

[MannyIsGod]

Naigan on TV right now telling people to GTFO now because this will be worse than Katrina. Places spared by Katrina will not be spared by this one.

[Buddy Holly]

Just insane...

[Buddy Holly]

Naigan on TV right now telling people to GTFO now because this will be worse than Katrina. Places spared by Katrina will not be spared by this one.

:wow

[GuerillaBlack]

Nagan on TV right now telling people to GTFO now because this will be worse than Katrina. Places spared by Katrina will not be spared by this one.

Glad to see this.

[MannyIsGod]

This is really almost like Deja Vu. Go dig up the old Katrina thread and read it. Same type of storm. The reactions are incredibly different this time (by the media, posters here, and people there) but thats to be expected.

[GuerillaBlack]

New models:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

[Buddy Holly]

Whether buses head here or not, SA and the San Antonio EOC will play a big part in the response.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26432490/

Video:
http://www.mysanantonio.com/videos/27684714.html

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/City_prepares_for_Gustav.html

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/columnists/carols_guerra/SA_helps_get_US_ready_for_hurricanes_.html


SA will get evacuees as early as today:

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/SA_is_at_the_eye_of_the_storm_in_safety_preparatio ns.html

[MannyIsGod]

here are the model runs grouped together
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest2.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest2best.gif

[Cry Havoc]

Worst case scenario.

I think Katrina is going to hit New Orleans as a high Category 4, perhaps as a Category 5 hurricane. This will be the worst natural disaster (damage wise) in the history of the United States.

[Buddy Holly]

Worst case scenario.

I think Katrina is going to hit New Orleans as a high Category 4, perhaps as a Category 5 hurricane. This will be the worst natural disaster (damage wise) in the history of the United States.

She's back? :ihit

[Cry Havoc]

Manny, I even may have underestimated this storm. There are now some models which show his central pressure dropping below 890 millibars.

That's unfathomable.


She's back? :ihit

Talk about a slip of the tongue. :lol

Gustav is going to go Category 5 by 10am tomorrow morning.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't think it goes under 900 mb. Thats impossible to guess at but really at this point its all academic. If it does, wtf does it matter? Its going to fuck shit up if the pressure is 950mb so if its below that then its just piling on.

This is pretty fucking sad. Almost 3 years to the day.

[Buddy Holly]

I was told that my aunt's preacher predicted LAST WEEK Gustav would be stronger than Katrina.

wtf?

[Buddy Holly]

I remember being here three years ago and people posting all night talking about how NO got lucky because it turned right (i believe) before land fall and they missed the worst and that everything looked ok. Then as the morning came reports were surfacing that the city was under water. Just thinking this may be an even worse storm and would hit either directly or just west of NO is... wow.

[GuerillaBlack]

The Katrina thread. The flooding starts getting apparent around page 32. Amazing how it unfolds: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24056&highlight=Hurricane+Katrina

[Buddy Holly]

The Katrina thread. The flooding starts getting apparent around page 32. Amazing how it unfolds: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24056&highlight=Hurricane+Katrina

I surprised myself, as I didn't know I was posting under TheWriter in that thread.

[Cry Havoc]

Katrina did not directly cause NO to flood. The levees broke after being saturated.

The difference, the horrible difference, is that Gustav won't break those levees, it will top them, shred them, and absolutely remove them from the city like they're toys.

[GuerillaBlack]

Katrina did not directly cause NO to flood. The levees broke after being saturated.

The difference, the horrible difference, is that Gustav won't break those levees, it will top them, shred them, and absolutely remove them from the city like they're toys.

Stop.

:(

This isn't good.

[RashoFan]

wow...
I will have to read the katrina thread in it's entirety...I was too busy being in LA to help out and I have to sit out on the sidelines this time around. I wished there wasn't a "this time around" but it is not up to me.

[Ginofan]

I'm glad they are issuing mandatory evacs now, it took them way too long to do just that when Katrina came around. As the mayor said, they've gained some hard earned experience.

[Buddy Holly]

Katrina did not directly cause NO to flood. The levees broke after being saturated.

The difference, the horrible difference, is that Gustav won't break those levees, it will top them, shred them, and absolutely remove them from the city like they're toys.

Cry, did you lease out your post to GuerillaBlack?

Dude copied you almost word for word and offered it up as his own. :wow

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=24706670&postcount=83


Another difference between Katrina and Gustav is that Katrina did not directly cause NO to flood. The levees broke after being saturated. Gustav won't break those levees, it will top them, shred them, and absolutely remove them from the city like they're toys.

Didn't mean to call you out like that but come on. :bang

[Buddy Holly]

Ha ha, I gotcha before the edit job!

And then you undid your edit. :lol

[GuerillaBlack]

Some new stuff:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_sat.jpg

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/at200807_radar.gif

[Das Texan]

this is fucking unreal.


so its basically gonna be making landfall somewhere Monday afternoon no?

[GuerillaBlack]

this is fucking unreal.


so its basically gonna be making landfall somewhere Monday afternoon no?

Most likely Monday morning.

[Das Texan]

Most likely Monday morning.



fuck.


hope i dont get too drunk at that wedding then tomorrow night.

[GuerillaBlack]

You're in NO? GTFO!!

And the Repubs are suppose to postpone the convention because of Gustav.