Weather and Politics: Who benefits more from what Gustav might do?

[MannyIsGod]

The big possible factors as I see them are:

1 - New Orleans gets wiped out again: Its a long way out but right now the GFDL has Gustav bearing down right on NOLA. If this is the case, its going to likely come in at least a Cat 3. The GFDL is our best hurricane model IMO but this is a long range forcast. Hurricane forcasts out more than 3 days aren't very accurate and that drops off even more past 5 days. If I were running things in NOLA however, I would honestly start the ball rolling on minor preperations.

2 - Gulf oil operations taking a substantial hit. This is far more likely than the above happening simply because there are oil facilities all over the Gulf. The only way this happens is if Gustav tracks into Mexico and thats possible but the models are trending away from that being the case.

[101A]

As irrelevant as those events ACTUALLY are in relation to who sits in the Oval Office, a big hurricane hit helps the Dems:

1. Could drive up Gas Prices
2. Reminder of Katrina
3. Global Warming Discussion

[JoeChalupa]

I'd say the city workers who will rack up some serious OT pay. Politically it would be wise for every public official to get it right this time.

[xrayzebra]

Maby some of the experts were right. Shouldn't have rebuilt NO in the first place.
It sits in a bowl. If it does hit NO again I would say goodbye NO. But I know it wont
happen. The same people are still in charge of NO as the last time and odds are
the same thing will happen. Although I don't think a good portion of the people
really returned, did they?

[JohnnyMarzetti]

Maby some of the experts were right. Shouldn't have rebuilt NO in the first place.
It sits in a bowl. If it does hit NO again I would say goodbye NO. But I know it wont
happen. The same people are still in charge of NO as the last time and odds are
the same thing will happen. Although I don't think a good portion of the people
really returned, did they?

I wonder if Dumbya will make another fly by a few days afterwards.

[101A]

Maby some of the experts were right. Shouldn't have rebuilt NO in the first place.
It sits in a bowl. If it does hit NO again I would say goodbye NO. But I know it wont
happen. The same people are still in charge of NO as the last time and odds are
the same thing will happen. Although I don't think a good portion of the people
really returned, did they?

They are spread to the four corners; several dozen are living here in a small town in Western Pa.

[ChumpDumper]

Apparently 1/3 of the population still hasn't come back. I was only slightly surprised to find that there have been 300 national guardsman patrolling the streets there for the past two years.

[Anti.Hero]

Jindal can continue talking about the $15 billion that went missing in chocolate city under those NO fools.



Corrupt motha fuckas


Reality of the event doesn't matter. The politicians will control the stupid and spin their "reality" onto the people.

[Hook Dem]

Gonna be a bad Labor Day for somebody!

[JoeChalupa]

I've got Labor Day off!!!

[xrayzebra]

I wonder if Dumbya will make another fly by a few days afterwards.


And send, what is it now, about 185 billion dollars, again.

[Wild Cobra]

And send, what is it now, about 185 billion dollars, again.

Wouldn't it be cheaper to bring in thousands of dump trucks with landfill until all the below sea level aras are at least 15 ft. above sea level like they did in Galvastan?

Sure, it would take several round trips, but at least it would be a worth-while expenditure. Otherwise, I say let it stay sunk.

Any contractors out there able to compute such a cost?

[MannyIsGod]

New Orleans isn't going anywhere. There's a reason people built a rather large city on such shitty land to begin with.

[JoeChalupa]

Is it just like those folks who build million dollar homes right next to the beaches in CA or homes near fault lines? You know it is just a matter of time before disaster strikes.

[ChumpDumper]

And send, what is it now, about 185 billion dollars, again.I'm not doubting you, but do you know where I can find a breakdown of the federal aid for Katrina and Rita? I've got about $50 billion accounted for by checking the DHS site.

[Wild Cobra]

Oh...

I forgot to give my two cents worth on the topic.

If it hits with disastrous results, I say the democrats profit from it. These televised conventions act as advertisement. The timing puts it in line with the republican convention. Think about how much less the republican convention may be covered against a disaster...

[ChumpDumper]

Wouldn't it be cheaper to bring in thousands of dump trucks with landfill until all the below sea level aras are at least 15 ft. above sea level like they did in Galvastan?

Sure, it would take several round trips, but at least it would be a worth-while expenditure. Otherwise, I say let it stay sunk.

Any contractors out there able to compute such a cost?Trouble is it keeps sinking. As I understand it, the channeling of the river caused that as well as causing the disappearance of the coastal wetlands that used to absorb a lot of the energy from hurricanes in the past.

It would be tough to undo all of that channeling that was in no small part a flood control project in the first place. I guess the least expensive thing to do is to make sure the levees are done right and pray.

[PixelPusher]

New Orleans isn't going anywhere. There's a reason people built a rather large city on such shitty land to begin with.

Maybe the fact that it's the major commercial port for the Midwest has something to do with it.

Maybe...who knows...

[MannyIsGod]

Maybe the fact that it's the major commercial port for the Midwest has something to do with it.

Maybe...who knows...

That was my point.

[johnsmith]

That was my point.

Then why didn't you make it more clear?

[xrayzebra]

I'm not doubting you, but do you know where I can find a breakdown of the federal aid for Katrina and Rita? I've got about $50 billion accounted for by checking the DHS site.

Chump I really don't know. That figure stuck in my mind. Seems that is what I heard the other night on some blasted TV show. Guess I could google it, but too damn lazy this afternoon. Short answer that figure could be wrong as two left feet. (oops hope we don't have any two left feet people)

[xrayzebra]

I forgot to add something for WC. That is exactly what they did in Galveston after the great hurricane they suffered. Raised every house by several feet. Quite a story, every get a chance read about it.

[xrayzebra]

Chump. Expected cost for Katrina is 200 Billion. As much as four years of war.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9281409/

It would almost have been cheaper to give each citizen a mil and let them handle
things themself.

[Wild Cobra]

I forgot to add something for WC. That is exactly what they did in Galveston after the great hurricane they suffered. Raised every house by several feet. Quite a story, every get a chance read about it.
Yes I did. I read up on it when Katrina hit. I was pissed off that no one ever took such a plan seriour for N.O.

[PixelPusher]

That was my point.

I figured it was, but I've come to understand that you have to spell it out when you're on the internets.

[ChumpDumper]

Chump. Expected cost for Katrina is 200 Billion. As much as four years of war.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9281409/

It would almost have been cheaper to give each citizen a mil and let them handle
things themself.Well, that was the estimate in 2005. I'm looking for what has actually been spent. Still looking.

[T Park]

I think if a hurricane did hit, I think it would be pretty shaky political ground to cross honestly.

If you try to say "This is what climate change does blah blah" You could be percieved as exploiting the people for your message to get elected.

We shall see, I don't really see how a hurricane can satisfy either one.

[Wild Cobra]

Trouble is it keeps sinking. As I understand it, the channeling of the river caused that as well as causing the disappearance of the coastal wetlands that used to absorb a lot of the energy from hurricanes in the past.

This is true, but as the water saturated ground dries out over time, the level of the land only sinks so much. The area that is below sea level probably won't sink much farther. The solution would be to build more than 15 ft. above sea level then. I'm sure there are some qualified engineers out there who can predict the proper range of any farther sinking.



It would be tough to undo all of that channeling that was in no small part a flood control project in the first place. I guess the least expensive thing to do is to make sure the levees are done right and pray.
I don't think that's the solution. I am a firm believe hat no matter how well the levees are built, they will fail at some time.

[MannyIsGod]

I think if a hurricane did hit, I think it would be pretty shaky political ground to cross honestly.

If you try to say "This is what climate change does blah blah" You could be percieved as exploiting the people for your message to get elected.

We shall see, I don't really see how a hurricane can satisfy either one.

I don't think there has to be anything said for it to help one party or another. I personally feel that higher gas prices helps Obama. A hurricane wrecking offshore drilling surely helps Obama. I think without a doubt that New Orleans part 2 helps Obama because it brings up one of the worst failures in Bush's time.

Higher gas prices may help McCain actually, but if they're do to offshore oil being hurt then Obama probably benefits.

And thats all without either of them saying a word. The 527s will do the talking in any case.

[T Park]

I don't think there has to be anything said for it to help one party or another. I personally feel that higher gas prices helps Obama. A hurricane wrecking offshore drilling surely helps Obama. I think without a doubt that New Orleans part 2 helps Obama because it brings up one of the worst failures in Bush's time.

Higher gas prices may help McCain actually, but if they're do to offshore oil being hurt then Obama probably benefits.

And thats all without either of them saying a word. The 527s will do the talking in any case.



Yeah, I'm obviously not smart enough to interpret which way it would help or not.

[ChumpDumper]

This is true, but as the water saturated ground dries out over time, the level of the land only sinks so much. The area that is below sea level probably won't sink much farther. The solution would be to build more than 15 ft. above sea level then. I'm sure there are some qualified engineers out there who can predict the proper range of any farther sinking.There is no solid consensus on all the causes of the sinking, but they have measured the sinking by satellite and found that some areas are sinking as much as an inch a year.



I don't think that's the solution. I am a firm believe hat no matter how well the levees are built, they will fail at some time.It might be the least costly thing to do while the causes of and solutions for the sinking are found.

[MannyIsGod]

Filling New Oreleans with sand dirt or any other substance is extremely impractical. I'm not sure of the cost, but you'd have to level everything and start again. I'm fairly certain this is not a pratical and thereby feasible solution.

They need to start restoring the marshlands to begin with. They do far more for flood protection than any levees.

[FromWayDowntown]

It's sad to think that the possibility of the destruction of a major city could be politically advantageous to anyone, and I'd certainly hope: (a) that Gustav will be a fairly weak hurricane that brings only minimal damage with it, wherever it might strike; and (b) that whatever happens, the immediate concerns of Americans will be addressing whatever problems the hurricane might create before playing political games with any effects the storm might create. Few things have pissed me off more than the political gibberish that was going on while we all watched televised pictures of people stranded on rooftops, if they managed to avoid the fate of dying in their attics. Solve the problems, then worry about the blame. Hopefully, if the worst happens, the lessons of Katrina will be used to benefit the people immediately affected by the storm and there is no political hay to be made of the situation.

Therein ends my plea for sanity.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Wouldn't it be cheaper to bring in thousands of dump trucks with landfill until all the below sea level aras are at least 15 ft. above sea level like they did in Galvastan?

Sure, it would take several round trips, but at least it would be a worth-while expenditure. Otherwise, I say let it stay sunk.

Any contractors out there able to compute such a cost?

Why pile on something that continues to sink?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Filling New Oreleans with sand dirt or any other substance is extremely impractical. I'm not sure of the cost, but you'd have to level everything and start again. I'm fairly certain this is not a pratical and thereby feasible solution.

They need to start restoring the marshlands to begin with. They do far more for flood protection than any levees.

Marshlands restoration is one of the viable solutions, but you're talking a 50-100 year project to realize results.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

It's sad to think that the possibility of the destruction of a major city could be politically advantageous to anyone, and I'd certainly hope: (a) that Gustav will be a fairly weak hurricane that brings only minimal damage with it, wherever it might strike; and (b) that whatever happens, the immediate concerns of Americans will be addressing whatever problems the hurricane might create before playing political games with any effects the storm might create. Few things have pissed me off more than the political gibberish that was going on while we all watched televised pictures of people stranded on rooftops, if they managed to avoid the fate of dying in their attics. Solve the problems, then worry about the blame. Hopefully, if the worst happens, the lessons of Katrina will be used to benefit the people immediately affected by the storm and there is no political hay to be made of the situation.

Therein ends my plea for sanity.

Sadly, you know both candidates will be in NO (should it happen again) the day the sun comes out afterward. Obama's political machine will probably have him out in a boat rescuing people or some other symbolic bullshit like that.

[FromWayDowntown]

Sadly, you know both candidates will be in NO (should it happen again) the day the sun comes out afterward. Obama's political machine will probably have him out in a boat rescuing people or some other symbolic bullshit like that.

I know. And I'm sure if Obama is rescuing people in boats, McCain will be doing something similar.

I think its the superficial politicization of suffering that I despise.

If you want to be compassionate to those who are suffering, solve their problems.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I know. And I'm sure if Obama is rescuing people in boats, McCain will be doing something similar.

I think its the superficial politicization of suffering that I despise.

If you want to be compassionate to those who are suffering, solve their problems.

Agreed. I'm sure it will be a race for who can stand up first and say that they will build a new levy in New Orleans capable of withstanding a cat 10 or something.

[ChumpDumper]

Wouldn't it be cheaper to bring in thousands of dump trucks with landfill until all the below sea level aras are at least 15 ft. above sea level like they did in Galvastan?

Sure, it would take several round trips, but at least it would be a worth-while expenditure. Otherwise, I say let it stay sunk.

Any contractors out there able to compute such a cost?FYI they used sand dredged up from the bay to build up Galveston.

[MannyIsGod]

FWIW I started the thread as a discussion on passive effects of any situation like this. Regardless of active campaigning an event like this would obviously have political ramifications. I may be cynical, but I don't think either candidate would have the gall to use a disaster as a direct campaign tool.

I do however, think the 527s would put up ads saying things. Its a double edged sword though. This woudl not be typical negative campaigning.

And as I type this Wolf Blitzer brings up Gustav. Its going to be a factor. It just is.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

FWIW I started the thread as a discussion on passive effects of any situation like this. Regardless of active campaigning an event like this would obviously have political ramifications. I may be cynical, but I don't think either candidate would have the gall to use a disaster as a direct campaign tool.

I do however, think the 527s would put up ads saying things. Its a double edged sword though. This woudl not be typical negative campaigning.

And as I type this Wolf Blitzer brings up Gustav. Its going to be a factor. It just is.

Come on Manny, there is going to be all kinds of plays by Camp Obama about how the Republican White House did nothing to prevent this from happening again, McCain wouldn't either, they'd play the race card for the 400th time this campaign, and Obama would be giving another one of his hollow speeches about hope and change from the roof of some flooded home in the 9th Ward.

[FromWayDowntown]

Come on Manny, there is going to be all kinds of plays by Camp Obama about how the Republican White House did nothing to prevent this from happening again, McCain wouldn't either, they'd play the race card for the 400th time this campaign, and Obama would be giving another one of his hollow speeches about hope and change from the roof of some flooded home in the 9th Ward.

. . . while McCain spoke about the need to drill from a balcony in the French Quarter.

[Spurminator]

I may be cynical, but I don't think either candidate would have the gall to use a disaster as a direct campaign tool.

Obama wouldn't have to, but McCain would be under a TON of pressure to differentiate himself from the Bush approach to Katrina. And honestly I don't think anything he could say or do would keep it from being a boost for the Obama campaign.

On the other hand, if America was attacked by terrorists before the election, Obama would be under the same kind of pressure while McCain wouldn't really have to say anything.

I hate to reduce it like this but when there are natural disasters, people look to the government to help them and that benefits Democrats. When there are foreign threats or attacks, people look to the government to protect them (and/or fight back) and that benefits the Republicans. It's not always the most rational reaction either way, but disasters and attacks don't usually inspire a lot of rationality.

[clambake]

would it surprise anyone if there were a desperate attack on american soil just before the election?

[Spurminator]

We heard that in 2004 too.

[xrayzebra]

We also have a city sinking. Baytown close to Houston. Some parts have sunk 10 feet.

http://baytownsun.com/story.lasso?ewcd=9c54822bbab27e94

[Extra Stout]

We also have a city sinking. Baytown close to Houston. Some parts have sunk 10 feet.

http://baytownsun.com/story.lasso?ewcd=9c54822bbab27e94
Your facts are pretty dated. Subsidence in Baytown was a 1970's and 1980's phenomenon.

Subsidence there was caused largely by underground wells for drinking water that sucked the water table down. That's why all the cities around Houston switched to surface water in the 1980's.

[Tully365]

The real tragedy is that everybody, including presidents from both parties, knew that the levees were in need of serious updating for a very long time, and the issue was never thoroughly tackled. For a much smaller investment than what is currently needed, New Orleans could have been spared the enormous suffering it has had to endure, and taxpayers could've been spared the many-times-worse costs that they've been forced to shell out since, not to mention lost revenues in tax dollars, disruption of citizens' lives, etc. The most frustrating thing to me is that it hardly registers as a news story anymore, despite the fact that the entire city could still be re-destroyed by another category 3 storm due to the fact that the progress on modernizing the levies has been slow and seemingly not a top national priority.

[Wild Cobra]

FWIW I started the thread as a discussion on passive effects of any situation like this. Regardless of active campaigning an event like this would obviously have political ramifications. I may be cynical, but I don't think either candidate would have the gall to use a disaster as a direct campaign tool.

I don't know how to respond to this. Whether they do or not, it will be interpreted as such. They will be expected to address the issue, and it's campaign season. Just how do you separate such things?

[Viva Las Espuelas]

would it surprise anyone if there were a desperate attack on american soil just before the election?
i'm personally starting the countdown of 365 days if and when Obamessiden takes office.